-by Dave Gray

I've gotten some help with a mock draft from some of TDMMC's message board regulars. We've drafted all of the first round picks that matter...those leading up to the Fins' pick at #9.

1. Oakland Raiders – Jamarcus Russell – QB, LSU
Dave Gray

Rarely in the NFL do you see such a clear cut #1 choice, as is the case this year. Jamarcus Russell is the highest prospect and the Raiders just happen to be absolutely desperate for a franchise QB. But, as we saw last year with the “sure thing” Reggie Bush being passed on by the Texas, anything is possible.

Needs: Like all teams, the Raiders have needs on both sides of the ball, but their offensive needs are much greater. Despite a horrific 2-14 record in the 2006 season, their defense ranked a respectable 3 rd in Total Defense. The overwhelming problem with the Raiders is their quarterback. They brought in Aaron Brooks to lead the team, but injury and ineptitude led them to Andrew Walther, who made the black hole miss Brooks. Also, it’s well known that all-star receiver Randy Moss is unhappy and wants out of Oakland. If he is let go, WR quickly becomes an issue as well.

Top 5 Candidates:

Jamarcus Russell – QB, LSU
Russell looks to be the most athletically gifted of the QBs available, and at 6-5, 265, with a strong arm, looks like he’s NFL material. He’s the frontrunner for this pick.

Brady Quinn – QB, Notre Dame
Quinn was hot stuff until he lost his bowl game and as some say, got exposed, but he’s been doing all the right things since. He wants to go number one and has been putting together impressive workouts. Quinn played in a pro style offensive and is thought to have the intangibles to make it in the NFL.

Calvin Johnson – WR, Georgia Tech
With Moss and ever Jerry Porter a question mark for next year, Calvin Johnson could surprise everyone if the Raiders find a QB elsewhere. If Moss goes before the draft, things may get interesting.

Adrian Peterson – RB, Oklahoma
Lamont Jordan came in with high expectations, but hasn’t produced for the Raiders. They’ve also brought in Turner, Ladanian Tomlinson’s former backup, but chances are, he won’t be their answer either. It’s unlikely that the Raiders take Peterson here, but crazier things have happened.

Joe Thomas – OT, Wisconsin
The Raiders O-line hasn’t been helping their quarterbacks. They drafted Robert Gallery in the first round several years ago, and it’s been a bumpy ride, although he’s shown some improvement as of late. This may hinder their decision to draft an O-lineman this early and pour even more of their salary cap into the same place of the field. Thomas would be a solid rebuilding pick, if the Raiders fell in love with a veteran QB, but things would have to happen in the offseason before the draft for this pick to make sense..

2. Detroit Lions – Joe Thomas – OT, Wisconsin
doctord56

The Detroit Lions have been a team in turmoil for many years, with an angry fan base, a persistently losing record, and a miserable draft record. This year they sit once again in a very high draft spot, with a talent poor team and more holes to fill than can be addressed in any one year by the draft and free agency.

The assumption here is that the Raiders will take Jamarcus Russell with the first pick. If for any reason Russell is still on the board, then the Lions snap him up and grab a great athlete and potential franchise QB, hoping he works out better than their last "franchise" QB draft choice name of Harrington.

Assuming Russell is gone, what are the Lions options? One intriguing option is to draft WR Calvin Johnson. I know, if the Lions draft another WR in the first round, the angry mobs in Detroit may storm Lion headquarters with torches and pitchforks. Although they do things like that in Detroit anyway. But I doubt in this scenario Johnson would be on the team for more than 10 minutes, and they might well immediately trade him (to Tampa Bay?) for a bunch of picks allowing them to fill multiple needs.

Some have speculated QB Brady Quinn might go in this spot to Detroit, but incumbent John Kitna has been solid if unspectacular, and Quinn seems to lack the massive upside of Jamarcus Russell. Kitna is 34 years old, but should be serviceable for a few years. RB Adrian Peterson will be on the board, but Detroit has decent options in Tatum Bell, TJ Duckett and Kevin Jones already, and RB is not as crying a position of need.

OT Joe Thomas seems to be the safe choice and the most likely scenario, as you don't get that many chances to nab a potential cornerstone offensive left tackle, and Thomas seems to be the real deal. Left tackle has grown in importance in the NFL in recent years, making a Joe Thomas very hard to pass up. There is an outside possibility, particularly if the Lions trade down a few slots and Thomas is not available, that they go for DE Gaines Adams, arguably the best pass rusher available in the draft. Adams and free agent pickup DeWayne White would give the Lions a potent pass rush to help out the overall defensive scheme.

So, if the Lions keep the pick, the safe scenario is that they go with the big offensive left tackle out of Wisconsin. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see some draft day wheeling and dealing.

3. Cleveland Browns – Adrian Peterson – RB, Oklahoma
Guru-In-Vegas  

Well there should be little surprise here with this pick.  Adrian Peterson, despite having questions regarding his durability is clearly the best back in the draft this year.  Amazing tackle breaking abilities and great speed make him a true workhorse and a defenite fit for a "smash mouth" cleveland brown offense. 

With a pitiful rushing offense ranking 31st in the league in 2006 the Browns are in clear need for a blue chip running back.  the acquisition of Jamal Lewis although a respected back, was a rather lukewarm one.  A New Orleans Saints-esque draft wouldnt be a bad idea for a team whose leading rusher last year only managed 758 yards on the ground with their 2nd leading rusher also playing quarterback in Charlie Frye.  A combination of veteran power in Anderson and rookie speed and agility in Peterson, should prove to be the jumpstart the Browns desperately need...not to mention the break their QB needs from the constant focus from opposing defenses. 

Although Peterson is NOT a recieving back, that ability will not be missed on the Browns' squad with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow catching a majority of passes. Surpassing 3000 yds in 2 seasons, Peterson also has 16 100 yd games at Oklahoma with 4 of those surpassing 200 yards. 

Some durability concerns surround this back especially due to the injury to his collarbone but nothing that hasnt been said about already proven backs such as Frank Gore.  So after such a poor campaign by the Browns' rushing game last year, the only logical choice here is Adrian Peterson, to not only address biggest concern on the team but to jump start into a new era of young playmakers Cleveland has lacked for so long...

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Calvin Johnson – WR, Georgia Tech
DolFan619

WR Calvin Johnson out of Georgia Tech is arguably the best player in the 2007 NFL Draft.  This is the one player that Head Coach Jon Gruden coveted the most and with good reason.  Calvin Johnson gives Jon Gruden and the Buccaneers the true number one threat at wideout that Tampa has been looking for since the departure of WR Keyshawn Johnson.  Joey Galloway, while he still has some of the speed that has made him a solid receiver over the years, he is getting up in age.  Michael Clayton has struggled with injuries since his phenomenal rookie year, Ike Hilliard at this stage in his career is a decent number four receiver, the Bucs recently signed David Boston, but he is not expected to make it past the final cuts in training camp.

The addition of Calvin Johnson immediately improves a passing game that was ranked a lowly 26th during the 2006 season.  Johnson is the all-around type of receiver that coaches and scouts dream about.  Johnson is 6’5, 265 lbs, a 45 inch vertical leap, and can run a 4.35 forty yard dash.  Johnson is a terrific natural athlete that has exceptional body control when it comes to adjusting to poorly thrown balls.  A long strider with uncanny speed that will allow him separate and dominate defensive backs; tremendously tough to bring down after the catch, and a strong open-field runner who will drag defenders when fighting for extra yardage.  Very effective as a blocker, and possesses great hands.  Johnson is effective whether going over the middle in traffic, or running the deep routes.  Johnson also is very well grounded, has never had a “giant ego”, and no off field incidents whatsoever. 

Whether the quarterback is Jeff Garcia, Chris Simms, Jake Plummer, Bruce Gradkowski, or Luke McCown, one thing is for certain.  These men will benefit greatly from Johnson’s unbelievable skill set.  Plus, the addition of Johnson also takes pressure off third year running back, Cadillac Williams.  Williams who was the 2005 Rookie of the Year, has had to take on a massive amount of carries because of the team’s lack of a passing attack, and injuries have also been a result of that increased workload.  Also, Johnson’s presence allows Joey Galloway to take some plays off and rest, as well as freeing up the struggling Michael Clayton who could very well see career resurgence with a talent like Johnson on the other side of him.  Calvin Johnson is the player that not only helps Jon Gruden “win now”, but Johnson may be the player that keeps Gruden employed in Tampa for a few more years.  In any other draft, Johnson would go number one overall.  So, at the fourth overall pick, Calvin Johnson is a steal for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their struggling offense.

5. Arizona Cardinals – Gaines Adams – DE - Clemson
AZ Fin Fan 55  

The Cardinals biggest need in this draft is on the offensive line. With the loss of Leonard Davis the obvious choice is to pick up another lineman. Unfortunately with Joe Thomas already gone and the Cardinals not able to trade up or down they take the best available player in the draft who can be an immediate impact player for them. In reality they would like to take Levi Jones with Thomas being gone and they might due to the lack of offensive lineman in this year’s draft. I feel that if they were to go after Jones than they would trade down to get him.

The Cardinals defense has suffered a serious case of injuries over the last two seasons. Bertrand Barry when healthy is a Pro-Bowl caliber player. The big emphasis here is when healthy. The redbirds also feature Chike Okeafor another aging, injury prone DE. Adams brings a big pass rush and can play along side Barry or Okeafor or in place of them if they in fact go down again. This pick should also solidify a quality defensive starter for the future as well. Adams is very quick and agile and has a habit of getting into the backfield to disrupt the play. His numbers in college have improved each season and as he continues to develop in the rigorous world of the NFL he should look to increase his strength and weight. Needs to improve his run blocking but that should improve with some great coaching in the desert.  

6. Washington Redskins – Jamaal Anderson – DE - Arkansas
Brian Fein  

The NFC has been the whipping post of the league for the past few seasons, providing 2 to 3 quality playoff teams and a bunch of “good-enoughs.” The NFC East has the most talent and high octane passing oriented offenses. The Redskins were dead last in the league last year in pass rush defense, registering only 19 sacks for 95 yards over the season. With no more picks until the 5 th round, it is imperative that the Redskins address their biggest needs in round 1.

If I’m the general manager of the Redskins, I look to trade this pick away to accumulate some middle-round picks, and drop down 3 or 4 spots. Jamaal Anderson can likely be had later on in the draft, and without any picks from 6 to the 5 th round, I’d be interested in dealing out of this pick with Atlanta, Miami, or Houston and still get my guy. But, since we’re not allowed to talk trade in this exercise, we’ll go ahead and reach for our guy.

Jamaal Anderson is a premier prospect who is coming off a junior season in which he tallied 19.5 tackles for a loss and 13.5 sacks. He could bolster the end of the defensive line and give the Redskins the pass rush they haven’t seen in years. He has a lot to learn, as does any rookie, but the pass rushing ability and run stopping ability models Jason Taylor in his speed and versatility.

Other considerations:

Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame – Mark Brunell’s bum shoulder could obsolete the last 3 years of Brunell’s 4-year deal. New starter Jason Campbell doesn’t appear to be a franchise-type guy. Quinn could solidify the Redskins’ QB position in the future, while still allowing him a year to sit and learn from Brunell.

LaRon Landry, S, LSU – The Redskins have a lot of names in their secondary, with Sean Taylor solidifying the middle of the field, but Landry in the free safety position could shut down the air-game for opponents and improve the league’s #22 passing defense.

Levi Brown, OT, Penn State – This would be an adequate choice in this position, being the best available O-lineman to help open some holes for Portis. However, the Redskins’ draft situation forces their hand to address positions of need first and foremost.

7. Minnesota Vikings – Brady Quinn – QB – Notre Dame
Dolphin-UK  

The Vikings are perennial underachievers, their offense hasn’t looked the same since Culpepper was traded and Brad Johnson was not the long term answer. Last season the Vikings were offensively reasonably solid, behind a decent running game and a steadfast OL, but whilst their run defense was amongst the highest in the league their pass defense was amongst the worst.

With the Vikings stuttering pass defense you could probably argue in favor of a DE to give them a credible pass rush, or a CB or S. The top prospects at CB are all still there and the same at S, although the top 2 DE’s have already disappeared off the board. But it all boils down to one thing, Brady Quinn is still on the board, and with the uncertainty at QB, he represents the best value player in the draft and fills an immediate position of concern for the Vikings. Tavaris Jackson is effectively an unknown as a starter, Brooks Bollinger is not going to set the World alight, and whilst the Vikings don’t exactly have a prolific WR corps, they need to start somewhere and Brady Quinn is someone they can build their offense and franchise around.

It’s not unreasonable to expect that someone will trade up to take Quinn ahead of the 7 spot, in which case look for them to go after any one of DE Gaines Adams, DE Jamaal Anderson, CB Leon Hall, S LaRon Landry if they are still on the board.

8. Atlanta Falcons- Laron Landry- S- LSU
Phishfan

Atlanta has settled on Michael Vick and traded their backup QB to move up to this position. While they would like to give Vick some O-line help, there just isn’t anyone worth selecting in this spot available. They have tried to help out their receiving corps already with this signing of Joe Horn so that makes defense a priority in the draft.

When thinking defense and the Falcons, two positions come to mind Defensive End and Safety. With the two top ends already selected and a player of Landry’s skill still available at a position of need it makes the decision easy. The Falcons have tried to bring in several DBs of late and none of them have made an impact. Landry should be able to step in and start immediately.

9) Miami Dolphins - Levi Brown - OT - Penn State
Sunstroke

Miami comes into the 2007 draft needing to address glaring weaknesses on both sides of the ball. On defense, Miami needs playmakers in the backfield, and more youth on the defensive line. If the camp experiment of moving last year's first rounder, Jason Allen, from safety to the corner is successful, then Miami will need to add a ballhawking free safety at some point. If LaRon Landry had been available, he might have been the pick. Michigan's CB Leon Hall would have to be a consideration as well. The improvement in passing offenses within the AFC East nudges this need area up a bit in priority. Up front, the quartet of Taylor-Carter-Traylor-Holliday has a combined 47 years in NFL trenches. Regardless of age, it is still an extremely productive unit, which will push the priority back and make it an unlikely area for Miami to address in round one.

On offense, Miami needs stability, and a leader, at the QB position. They also need a lot of help on the O-line and better receiving targets. The Dolphins' QB issues have been well documented. Daunte's lingering injuries and Harrington's release have Cleo Lemon standing as the team's best QB prospect, which can't help but scare the hell out of Cam Cameron, whether he cares to admit it or not. With Russell and Quinn off the board, Miami will be more likely to go after a developmental QB like Trent Edwards or Drew Stanton in round two to address that area. The depth of this receiving class (excellent prospects like Jason Hill, Aundrae Allison and Craig Davis will be available in round 3), plus the potential within the offense for increased use of last year's third round pick, Derek Hagan, lead me to believe they won't go with a receiver in round one. That leaves the offensive line, and whether Miami goes with Cleo Lemon, hangs on to Daunte or makes a deal for Trent Green, improving the protection up front is imperative.

Once the need-area priorities and prior selections were taken into account, it really came down to selecting either the best offensive lineman available or the best defensive back. I think with the players available, the decision will be to go with the best offensive tackle, and establish an anchor for the line. Having an offensive head coach as part of Miami's draft braintrust for the first time ever only increases that conviction. There has been some public support for Miami to go with Joe Staley from Central Michigan with the #9 pick, and I really like Staley's talent...and moreso, his intensity. He might have the quickest feet in this year's tackle class, and that's a good thing on the kickout for tackles. But I see Levi Brown as having superior size, better technique and four years starting against top caliber defenders in college. I see him as being polished enough to step in and help immediately in both the rushing and passing game, and the top-side talent to develop into a pro bowl caliber left tackle.

I can't imagine anything the Miami Dolphins need more...

 

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