The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

Discuss.

i said divison, if we can win out, we will get the division.

On the wildcard side if we win out, indy or Baltimore would have to go 3-1 to tie us, and i think they both own the tiebreaker over us.

I think we have to win the division to make the playoffs (same thing for the Jets & Pats as I think only one team is going).

I also said division, as well.  Had we beaten the Pats, I think we'd have more roads to get there, and it would put the pressure on some of these other teams.

I think if we win the remainder of our games (which won't happen, I don't think), that we'll win our division, and get in.  Otherwise, I don't see us catching enough teams to get in the back door.

I'm going with a divisional title as well.  Baltimore has the tiebreaker advantage over us, and Indy is getting hot right now. 

Division.  It is almost impossible for the Dolphins to get in on a wildcard.

If the Dolphins run the table they win the division.

Right now the wild card spots are held by Baltimore and Indy both at 8-4.

Both Balt and Indy would break tie breakers with Mia.  Ravens won head to head, Colts conf record is 7-2, Mia 5-4.  In order for Mia to get a wildcard spot MIA would have to lose one game and one of those two teams would have to lose 3 of the next 4 games and NE would have to lose one. 
 

I don't think we will win the wildcard.  Indy and Balt are too far ahead.

Much as I would love to see it, I doubt the dolphins will make the playoffs. I just don't think they are quite good enough this year to jump the teams ahead of them. However, it is a glorious thing to have this sort of discussion 12 games into the season, and represents more progress than I ever could have hoped for last December.

If, if, if.....I think a division win would be the more likely route.

While football in January would be fun, we're just not a "playoff caliber team". We have so many weaknesses, we'd be slaughtered by a competent team on Wild Card Weekend.

I think the playoffs are extremely unlikely at this point.  Here's why I say that.

In my equation, here is my given: That the Dolphins will have to win out to make the playoffs.

That means, we have to beat the Bills, Niners, Chiefs, and Jets.

With parity the way it is, it's hard to win 4 in a row against any teams, especially two in your division.


I give us .50, .60, .60, and .40 chances, respectively.  That gives us about a 7% chance...which sounds about right to me.

 

You are all forgetting the reason this website was built - the DECEMBER DEMISE!!

This is the month where the Dolphins blow their chances at the playoffs. I expect this to continue in 2008, starting with a devastating loss @ Buffalo @ Toronto.

if you didn't realize it. but we managed a 4 game win streak earlier this season, we can pull all 4 in a row again. just take one game at a time and see where things go.

I have to admit, Buffalo,the 49ers,and the Chiefs and then the F'n Jets...To me the way we're playing should we win 3 of those ...I think we'll blow atleast one of them...I think Having the Colts and Ravens leading the wildcard...The division is the only way we get in the playoffs...

Just because it happened once, doesn't mean it will happen twice.  It's possible, sure, but not likely.

We essentially have to go undefeated the rest of the way unless the Jets lose 3 games as well as the Pats. This was a bad year to be a wild card contender. It is very likely we will have 4 10-6 or better teams, with 2 missing out on the playoffs.

Not likely we win out, but I think it's quite possible we face the Jets in Week 17 with a playoff berth on the line.

We're essentially two games behind with 4 play.  The Jets and Patriots both own tiebreakers over us.  I would say it's more likely we get in as a wildcard, but even that will require some luck because Baltimore owns a tiebreaker over us there as well, unknown if Indianapolis will own a similar tiebreaker. 

I don't see it happening for us.  I want it to, I'd be thrilled if it did, but too much shit has to go wrong out of our control for it to happen. 

actually we own the tie breaker over both NE and NY if we end up tied with them at the end of the season

That would give us a .525 chance...

Nope.  7.2%

how do you figure?
or average chance is 52%, as far as I can tell

oh wait... I guess we have a 52% chance of goin 2-2... nevermind

Actually based on those % for each game 4.8%

WTF is the problem with people's calculators (or their math skills).


.50 * .60 * .60 * .40 = 0.072 = 7.2%

end of story.

It's like the standard coin toss example. Heads and tails are each 50-50. So your odds of getting two heads in a row are 0.5 times 0.5 = 0.25 (=25%). You need to multiply the probabilities together.

Average probabilities aren't very useful. Say you have two events, one of which has a 100% probability of occurring and another with has a 0% probability of occurring. The average is 50%, but that says absolutely nothing about how often BOTH events will occur (which is never, because one of them never happens... 1 times 0 = 0).

wrong

(1-.5) * (1-.6) * (1-.6) * (1-.4) = .048 = 4.8%

How did you guys graduate from high school?

4.8 is the percent chance that the Dolphins would lose 4 in a row, given the above ratios.

It's 7.2%.    Done and done.

i will never understand how you come up with 7.2.

it's more .80,.70,70,.50  which would be 19.6%. 

Not using the stupid the formula our chances of making the playoffs isn't 7.2. it's 20%, Think of it this way dave in our final 4 games, there is a possibility of 5 scenarios, (4-0,3-1,2-2,1-3,0-4) each one has a 20% chance of happening. So therefore our chance of going 4-0 is 20%.

You are wrong again.
There are 5 scenarios, yes, but they are not equally likely.
Using your logic, it would be equally likely to go 16-0 as it would be to go 8-8.  Obviously, this isn't correct.

There is only 1 way for us to go 4-0.
Yet, there are 4 ways for us to go 3-1.
And there are 6 ways for us to go 2-2.

Even if all of the games are a 50/50 shot, then the equation is .5^4, which equals = 6.25%

I gave us 7.2, because I think we're better than most of our opponents.

Trust me...I'm good at math.  :)

Fascinating.

if i remember the probability crap i went through in Stats

Are you talking about

these types of probabilities
4-0 - WWWW
3-1 - WWWL - WWLW-WLWW-LWWW
2-2 - WWLL- WLWL-WLLW-LWLW-LLWW-LWWL
Vice versa for 1-3 and 0-4

dave is weighing the probabilities of a win based on his own opinion that the dolphins will win..

so the actual .4/.5/.5/.6 numbers are arbitrary .. but the math he used to get to 7.2 isn't .. he's right

You are all wrong....the probability that we go 4-0 is 100%  ;D

It would be somewhere around 50-75%, yet I have it on good source that Brett Favre's period starts on the last game of the season, giving him cramps and making him play like crap against us....here is the formula for it

Brett Favre's bleeding vagina x (The Jets sucking a floppy donkey dick)^1000000 = The Dolphins in the playoffs and Brett Favre not pregnant

Yes.

Agreed.  Division is key--one loss and we're done.  I get this sickening feeling the Pats will weasel their way into another AFC East championship.

Indi will beat Detroit and most likely Jacksonville if not run the table.  10-6 minimum, 11-5 probable if Titans come to play in Week 17, possible 12-4 if Titans sit starters.  This leaves one wildcard.  Shit is way too convoluted to figure out at this point but Ravens play Steelers and Cowboys before Jaguars so there is a possibility they would lose two (10-6) in which case we're still boned. 

Bills need to grow a pair and beat Jets and Pats to alleviate this situation. 

The bills WILL beat the Jets

The most ironic way for that to happen would be for the all the teams to win their next two, then week 17 the Pats win and the Dolphins and Jets TIE (shhh , don't  tell mcnabb but they are possible) in which case the Pats would win the Div.   

I don't see the Pats losing with weak schedule and Cardinals at NE.  Cards won't play starters much.  Bad feeling about Jets game for us--Favre will pull magic shot-put pass out of his ass which Renaldo Hill will be mesmerized by and leave a shitty, unknown receiver wide open in the end zone.

[ ] would be ironic

Updated chances of us going 3-0 to end the season:

14.4%

However, I think that we probably have a shot to lose a game and still win the division, so long as the Jets and Pats lose before the final week of the season.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d80d28df7&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true (http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d80d28df7&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true)

Interesting article on why NFL.com thinks we are going to win the division

I'd like to see the different scenarios you have in mind.   

If the Jets lose 2 (mia plus another) Mia loses one, and Pats lose one.  Dolphins will most likely win the division. 

Under that situation the:

Mia would be 10-6; Pats would be 10-6; Jets would be 9-7; Bills at best would be 9-7.

Tie breakers between Pats and Dolphins:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

split

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

if the Pats lost was to the Bills than Mia would win on this tie breaker

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

Under any situation where the teams are tied, the Pats and Mia tie here too.

4.  Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

right now Mia is 6-4; Pats are 5-5.  each have two conf games left to play:

Pats - Bills and Oak; Mia - Jets and KC.

We have already taken care of Pats lose to Bills with tie breaker #2.  If the Pats lose to Oak even if Mia was to lose to KC. Mia would win this tie breaker.  But if Mia was to lose to KC and NE was to lose to AZ then this tie breaker would  be even at 7-5.

So the only way we get to tie breaker number 5 is MIA beats Jets and SF lose to KC; Pats beat Bills and Oak lose to AZ.

5.  Strength of victory.

The only non-common victory would be

NE beating KC
Fish beating SD.

KC is currently 2-11; SD 5-8.  In order for MIA not to win this tie breaker SD would have to lose all remaining games and KC would have to win all remaining games.  If that happens this tie breaker is even.

6. Strength of schedule.

Only two non-common games

Pats - Colts (9-4) and Steelers (10-3)
Fins - Ravens (9-4) and Texans (6-7)

NE is currently leading in this tie breaker but Fins could pass them.

-------

The only realistic way Mia doesn't win the tie breakers assuming the teams end with a tied record at the end of the season would be if, MIA was to lose to the Jets.  And even then if Pats and Mia end 10-6 with the Jets 9-5, Mia would win the tie breakers if the Pats loss was to the Bills. 

Good job.

As far as I can tell, the results of today have made little difference. We still need to win out to get in. We cannot pry a wildcard away from the Colts (W). The Ravens (L) would need to lose out (Cowboys away and Jax at home) for us to top them with 10 wins and even then we'd still have to wind up ahead of either the Jets or the Patriots.

One complicated scenario is if we win next week, but lose to the Jets in week 17. If the Jets win their other game, they have the division. If they lose their other game, the Patriots get it if they win both theirs. If the Patriots lose one, we can all wind up 10-6. In that case our two losses to the Jets give them the 3-way tie-breaker, reducing it to a two-way with the Patriots. If the Patriots' win was over the Bills, they'd be through on division record. If they lost to the Bills, we'd get second place on account of best conference record.

Even if all that crap actually happened, we'd STILL have to wrestle a wild card away from the Ravens, which would require them losing their final two games (Cowboys away and Jax at home).

   Win out the division's Miami's. Finish 10-6, and there are all kinds of possiblities, which I don't want to get into.

Baltimore lost today.  I seriously hope they lose out.

Updated chances of us going 2-0 to win the division:

24%

At this point I think it is impossible for the Dolphins to get a wild card, it is division or nothing. 

What happens if the Jets win out and the Dolphins and Patriots both wind up with 10 wins? (Assuming the Ravens drop both of their remaining games and the Patriots' loss is to Buffalo).

That scenario results in a tied head-to-head and tied division record, so the tie-breaker goes to "common games".

The Dolphins then sweep the AFC West and go 3-1 against the NFC West.
The Patriots go 3-1 against the AFC West and sweep the NFC West.

That's all tied and we move to Conference games. With the loss to the Bills, the Patriots would be 6-6 in the conference, whereas the Dolphins would be 7-5.

So the Dolphins would get second spot in the division and the second wild card. (The first wild card goes to the Colts courtesy of their current 8-2 conference record, regardless of a tie with the Dolphins and/or Patriots).