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Papelbon reminds me a lot of Wetland.  I thought he was a very overrated closer in his day.  He rarely had a clean save.  Papelbon is the same way.

Yeah, I know.  He is the owner of a career ERA of 1.83.  I know his BA against, all that jive.  But I also know that you need to look inside stats a lot of the time. 

Is Papelbon above average?  Yes, I'll give him that.  Is he elite?  I don't think so.  In 265 career innings he has issued 70 walks.  The ratio for walks per appearance is pretty staggering.  Look at this season.  35 innings, 17 walks.  Every time I turn on the TV the guy is coming into the game, putting the tying run on with a walk, giving a base hit to put the go ahead at 1st and tying on 2nd and then relying on amazing defense to get himself out of jams.

Here are stats that exist - but you need to dig to find them.  In 2007 Papelbon had 83 outs recorded by the center fielder.  78 outs.  He pitched 58 innings which is 174 outs.  Of those 83 were hit hard enough to get to center field.  I specifically remember Coco Crisp making gold glove like catches to save Papelbon's ass.

Baltimore, this week.  Monday night, Papelbon comes in with a four run lead.  Walks the lead off hitter.  Gives up a base hit.  No outs, runners on 1st and 2nd.  Struck out the next batter.  Great stab by Youkilis at 3rd for a force out for the second out.  Amazing diving / sliding catch from Bay in left that should have been a base hit for the save.

GREAT closers have clean innings.  You never see this guy work a clean inning.  Ever.

All closers have bad outings.  From my experience, a series of bad outings can often be attributed to some nagging hidden injury or some mechanics change that has affected their "stuff". 

If you want to trade Papelbon for Matt Lindstrom, just ask.

There's a huge difference in Paps of 07 and Paps of 09. This 09 version is Keith Folke scary

The only team that plays worse defense than Florida is Washington.  Boston has the 4th best defense in the league.  They have been in the top five in defense every year that Papelbon has been closing games.  The defense saves his ass on a regular basis.  He has three blown saves right now, two of those were three run saves.  That doesn't include his flat out losses this year.  Without amazing OF catches by all three guys (Bay, Ellsbury and Drew) Papelbon would have six-seven blown saves. 

It's like Dice-K.  I'm so sick of hearing "he won 18 games last year."  Sure.  And of his 32 starts he made it into the 6th inning FOUR TIMES and beyond the 6th inning TWICE.  He was one / two bad pitches per outing at being a double digit loss guy and a 6.00+ ERA.  He taxed the hell out of Boston's bullpen and might have actually single handedly been the reason the pen was so gased Boston couldn't get past Tampa in the ALCS.  The bullpen in that series was the difference.  When you have a #3 that relies on 4 innings each start from your pen that gets wearing.  That is showing brightly this year.

Papelbon is the same way.  The guy has good stuff.  Again, he's above average.  But he's not elite.

Just curious, how do you quantify defensive aptitude?  number of errors?  I have never seen a stat line for ADC (amazing diving catches).

(not trying to be combative, I legitimately don't know)

Imagine the following:

1 run lead.  Runners on 3rd and 2nd, two outs.  Fly ball, mid center.  Center fielder is one of the fastest players in the entire league.  Full board sprint to the ball, full on dive and a basket / snow cone catch that should have been a basehit.  Which, by the way, would have scored two runs and blown a save.

That would be an ADC.

Here are a few examples.  When you have a CF like Ellsbury he's going to save a few pitcher's asses:

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=4744033&c_id=bos (http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?content_id=4744033&c_id=bos)

This is a shot of Coco Crisp's game inning catch to save Papelbon's ass in a game last year.  This qualifies as a catch you won't see most OF players able to do, this is a basehit 99% of the time:

(http://bostondirtdogs.boston.com/Headline_Archives/BDD_6.29_cc_bgjd.jpg)

And another...

(http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2008/11/19/9-catch__1227139775_9665.jpg)

And another...

(http://cache.boston.com/resize/bonzai-fba/Globe_Photo/2008/07/09/1215604538_2852/499w.jpg)

All three of Crisp's catches were in the 9th inning with Papelbon on the bump.

Didn't Papelbon say he would like to play for the Yankees a couple of days ago?...I saw something on ESPN that he said something along those lines, maybe that is why your attitude about Paps and his pitching has changed?

Maine, I am asking because you said "The only team that plays worse defense than Florida is Washington."

This makes me think that somewhere there's a league stat ranking for defensive quality, and the Marlins are 2nd to last.  Knowing that you're a stats guy, you're not likely to blurt out random quips like this without facts to back it up.

So, as a baseball fan, I've never heard of any such stats that can evaluate fielding.  Like if we were in a fantasy baseball league and I wanted to score points for leather, and not just wood, what do I use to quantify that? 

Rick - I don't view the baseball world in context of "Red Sox - Yankees."  I could care less what comes out of Papelbon's mouth.  I care what comes out of his hand during a game.

I also could care less where he plays after 2012.  There is a baseball world out there beyond Sox - Yankees.

And not that reality means anything, but here is what he actually said:

Jonathan Papelbon grouped reporters together to strongly strike down a report that he would be willing to sign with the New York Yankees.

"I don't want to go (expletive) play for the Yankees," he said. "I've been on a team for the past five years that's been in first place more than any other (expletive) team otherwise. Why would I want to leave?"

Papelbon said he was "nowhere even close" to suggesting he would sign with the Yankees.

"Sometimes in these quotes they only see what they want to see," he said.

"[The Red Sox] don't owe me nothing," he said. "This team doesn't need me. I need the Red Sox more than the Red Sox need me."


Source:  http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2009/06/papelbon_strong.html (http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2009/06/papelbon_strong.html)

Brian - MLB rankings - I slightly mis-spoke.  Florida has managed to climb to 27th in overall defense.  So the only there are three teams worse than Florida on defense (Washington, Seattle and Arizona).  And they are all seperated by less than half a percentage point...so let's just go ahead and say they all suck equally as bad defensively. 

My point - Papelbon on the Marlins (or Nationals or Seattle, etc) would blow a lot more save chances than he blows now.  He has a better supporting cast.  And that is something you won't find in his stat line.  Anyone that watches the guy pitch knows it.

OK, maybe I'm not asking clearly enough.  I'm seriously interested in what statistical categories make up the defensive rankings.  I'm NOT trying to defend the Marlins and how bad their defense is at all.

My comment about Matt Lindstrom has irrelevant to your discussion about Papelbon.  If anything, I was merely attempting to illustrate that, no matter how horrible you say he is, he's probably still the top 20% of closers in the league.

I still like Paps...and think he is still one of the 4 or 5 best closers in the game. Obviously being on a team that wins a ton of games will inflate his save opps numbers, but I also think that the AL East is a brutal place to be a closer due to the talent spread throughout the division (you're all evil, but you've got talent)

On a "viva la small market!" aside, I'd like to take a second and express my healthy man-love for our closer in SD, Heath Bell. Following an act like Trevor Hoffman isn't an easy task, but Bell has certainly done a great job so far. He's saved 21 of 22 opportunities, with a 1.34 era and 1.01 whip. Of the 20 hits he's allowed in 33 innings, only 4 have been for extra bases (4 doubles)...opponent slugging % is a nasty .222.

I miss Trevor, but am glad to see that our 9th inning was passed into extremely capable hands.

Wow.  Brian...READ my posts.  I don't mean to sound like a dick but what part of my following quote says "Papelbon sucks?"

"Papelbon is the same way.  The guy has good stuff.  Again, he's above average."

The guy is ABOVE AVERAGE.  He is not elite.  Put Papelbon on a bad team, give him 30 save shots and he'll blow 8 of them.

what statistical categories make up the defense ranking list?

is it just fielding % ? do you count assists or groundouts vs. flyballs or passed balls /wild pitches ?

what do you toss together statistically to come out with the ranking of "defense" ?

era is (earned runs total / total innings pitched ) * 9

defense is ??? + ??? / ??? - ??? ^ ???

Thank you, Fau...

Maine, who do you think are the five best closers currently active in baseball now? And where does Papelbon figure on the list of active closers?

The general way to come to a fielding percentage is (Putouts + Assists) divided by (Putouts + Assists + Errors).

Other things can come into play such as double plays, passed balls, allowed stolen bases versus caught stealing. 

You also have to factor in the DER (Defense Efficiency Ratio) into the formula as well as all ballparks are not the same in size and demension. 

Just going by baseball prospectus...

Def Eff, or Defensive Efficiency, is the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a team's defense. Def Eff can be approximated with (1 - BABIP), if all you have is BABIP, but a team's actual Def Eff is computed with

1 - ((H + ROE - HR) / (PA - BB - SO - HBP - HR))

Currently the Marlins are ranked 23rd in MLB for defensive efficiency.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=465423 (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=465423)

#   YEAR       TEAM   LG   PA            AB             H    BB    SO   HBP   HR   ROE DEF_EFF    PADE
23.   2009   FLO   NL   3,154   2,771   715   309   597   17   74   38   0.685   -0.02
28.   2009   BOS   AL   3,018   2,674   697   257   589   41   69   30   0.681   -1.55

(http://tealandblack.net/forums/images/smilies/lol.gif)

This is...what?  Makes perfect sense to grind out defensive stats without includes errors.  Nice find.

this number makes more sense to me from a statistical standpoint and from what it represents to real-life than just a straight errors count.

seems like a ratio of balls put into play compared to how many of those are converted into outs is a better measure of defense

and i just looked it up.. that number does include errors:

ROE
Reached On Error: when a batter reaches first base as a direct result of a fielding error.

I have no idea how anyone could find a formula on defense that doesn't include errors as "making sense."

That is like saying "let's not count tackles in football."  Or not including home runs in batting average because they leave the ball park.

Defense in baseball is pretty simple.  The ball in play is either a hit or an out.  If some reaches base on a play that should have been an out it's an error.  A runner on base can cost you a run...which can cost you a game.  Just like missing a tackle can cost you a score. 

I can come up with a formula that would make the Washington Nationals appear to have the best pitching staff in the league.  Does that make it accurate?

You either field your position well or you don't.

(Putouts + Assists) divided by (Putouts + Assists + Errors) is very simple.  I tend to err on the side of people that know that game far better than I when deciding on statistical relevance.  There are more effective ways to gauge an individual player.  But when you're talking about 9 guys working together for three outs...this is really all you need.

the formula includes errors

Reaching first on an error does not include all errors, thus it is in incomplete stat.  Again, it's like judging a pitcher on win / loss only.  I can point out games this weekend alone where an error occured during a force out throw to second.  Boston lost a game Saturday by one run - a run that scored due to a poor throw, and an error, on a force at second.  That wouldn't factor into this formula.  Reaching first on an error is one thing - it doesn't account for 100% of the errors in a game.

If we're going by how MLB actually judges their game, and tossing in the Sox to compare to the Marlins (I will also toss in the top and bottom defensive teams to compare):

Team   LEAGUE   G   INN   TC   PO   A   E   DP   PB   SB   CS   DER   FPCT   

1. Toronto Blue Jays
 AL 83 748.2 3200 2246 924 30 84 8 47 28 .7066 .991

 12. Boston Red Sox
 AL 81 722.1 2943 2167 731 45 62 7 74 15 .6954 .985

28. Florida Marlins
 NL 83 744.0 3045 2232 753 60 54 3 84 21 .7046 .980

30. Washington Nationals
 NL 80 705.1 3057 2116 868 73 68 6 55 20 .6973 .976 

All that being said - and I am as guilty as anyone else because I've allowed this thread to become derailed - I'm going to lock it soon as it's way off topic.  The thread was about my personal opinion that Papelbon is not  an elite closer, but a good one, and that he is over-rated.  Not how defensive teams are judged.  I brought up defensive rankings as a way to show the potential difference in closers.  Boston has a better defense, Papelbon closes out more games.  I'll say again, one more time - give Papelbon 30 games to close playing for Florida and he'll blow 10-15% of those saves based on how the Marlins play defense versus Boston's defensive unit.

So, I'm curious, why all the distaste for Papelbon?  I see your discussion but I think he's still a top-tier closer.  Do you think he has declined this season, or do you think he's always been a sheep in wolf's clothing?  Seemed like last season he was unhittable.  Do you think he would be better suited in a starter or middle relief role?

It looks as though he's changed something... trying to protect his arm maybe?

I think I need to be clear here because I'm not sure I am being understood:

I think Papelbon is an above average pitcher.

He's never really been "un-hittable."  You want un-hittable?  Look up Mo with the Yankees in his hey day.  Or Eric Gagne during his stretch.  When you faced those guys you did one of three things:  struck out, popped up to second or weekly grounded out to short.

Papelbon's control is all over the place.  He's walking guys left and right, almost a walk per inning right now.  For a guy that works one inning at a time, and during times when you're leading by a run, that's pretty freakin' bad.  He is getting hit very hard.  Luckily for the Sox, thus far, those hits have been catchable because you have above average athletes in the outfield. 

Papelbon keeps messing with his delivery.  He's from the chest.  No, wait.  The waist.  Oh, shit.  He's back to the chest.  GREAT relievers have zero wasted motion.  He keeps tinkering with his pitches.  He wants a slider and is using it.  Wait, he's not.  Shit, there is that slider again.  He threw a change up the other day.

ELITE closers, the GREAT ONES, generally have one pitch with the occasional out pitch.  I saw one outing where Papelbon used two different fastballs, a slider and a change.

Look INSIDE the guy's numbers.  The last ten games?

8 and a third innings pitched.  Four saves earned.  Blew one, took a loss in one.  8 hits allowed. Four walks issued. 

Those are elite numbers?  People focus so much on blown saves.  10 games, four saves, one blown save, one loss.  Those are elite numbers?  8 hits, four walks...that's 12 runners on base.  IN EIGHT INNINGS!  Those are not the numbers of an elite closer.  And that ten game sample is what you'll find when you break the season into 10's. 

36 innings pitched.  31 hits allowed.  17 walks issued. 

The guy is a darned good pitcher.  He is very good.  In a game full of crappy ass stoppers, he's one of the best out there.  But a lot of what he accomplishes is not his own doing.  A chunk of Papelbon is smoke and mirrors.