The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

Here's my analysis:

- The Jaguars and Texans are 4-4 and 5-4 respectively.  The Dolphins play both of these teams and thus can earn the tiebreak over them.  Conclusion:  Winning both of these games will be crucial to making the playoffs, but these teams are definitely overtakeable.

- Baltimore is 4-4 and has to play Pittsburgh and Cincy twice.  I don't know how many times they've played these teams yet this year.  Conclusion:  They are very overtakeable.

- Pittsburgh and Cincy:  One of these teams will win the division, the other will be a wildcard.  The Dolphins play Pittsburgh the final week of the season:  Conclusion:  Root for Cincy, root against Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh is more overtakeable.  Last game of the season is a must win

- New York Jets.  The Dolphins hold the tiebreaker against them.  They play NE again.  Conclusion:  They are very overtakeable


-Denver and SD:  One of these teams will win the division, the other will be a wildcard.  SD holds the tiebreaker against the fish.  Denver is 6-1:  Conclusion:  Root against SD. 

Anybody wish to offer their take? 

I love when people start topics like this, because it allows me to use my favorite Jim Mora quote:

"Playoffs?! Don't talk about playoffs! Are you kidding me? Playoffs?!"

It's pretty simple. Miami is 3-5. They would need to win 7 of their next 8 MINIMUM to even have a shot in hell at 10-6 and even then tiebreakers would likely come into play.

So realistically Miami would have to run the table to make the playoffs outright.

Their season ended today officially. Embrace it.

i agree. it is what it is....and since the giants are dead as well, i have become an honorary denver fan.

Who says we can't win 7 out of our next 8?

Tenn
TB
Buffalo
NE at Home
Jax
Ten
Pitt

Three of these games are gimmes

The other four are very winnable matchups

"slim to none" is the answer.

I don't see any way we win the division - that's just not realistic. Is 10 wins going to be enough for a Wild Card?

Steelers, Texans and Chargers are all 1.5 to 2.5 games ahead of us. Put the Ravens in that category as well, since even with a loss today, they own the tiebreaker. In addition to those FOUR teams, the Jets and Jaguars are still a win ahead. Those are the front-runners for the 2 Wild Cards right now. We'd have to overtake 5 of those 6 teams to get in.

"slim to none"

Frankly, it would be better for the Dolphins to not make the playoffs with the way things are going.  The reason is, next year will be uncapped as things stand, however the 8 teams that make it to the second round of the playoffs will be heavily restricted in free agency. 

Again, 2010 is uncapped and I would love to see the Dolphins throw some money at Vincent Jackson or Brandon Marshall or both.  Nabbing one of those guys instantly upgrades your receiving corps.  Nab them both and you'll have opposing defensive coordinators wetting their pants.

I'll pretend I'm a doctor...

"They're coding!  Someone get me the crash cart!  They need 50 cc's of epinephrine, stat!"

And hou, which will be a loss, bc the dolphins always lose to houston?  which 3 games are you considering gimmes?

Difficult, not impossible.  We'd need to win 7 games because 9-7 just doesn't get you in anymore, and even 10-6 is no guarantee. 

Why does everyone keep pointing to the Pittsburgh game?  The Texans are the ones we're going to have more trouble with.

You're right...I don't think that we've ever beat the Texans.

Note: I made an error in my list in my last post.  The Titans is duplicated twice.

The Gimmes:

Tenn
TB
Buffalo (well maybe not a gimme, but they dominated them the first matchup)

Miami can beat the Texans.  All the games have gone down to the wire.  Just one more play this year, and Miami will win.

Here's our remaining schedule:

Panthers: 3-5
Tampa: 1 win
Buffalo: 3 or 4
NE: 6
Jax 4
Tenn: 2
Houston: 5
Pitt: 5 or 6

5 of our opponents have as many or only 1 more win than us.  That leaves us with the other 3.  NE is always beatable when they play in Miami.  So, if we can win these six games and beat either Hou or Pit, we still got a good shot at the playoffs.

The Dolphins lost the playoffs yesterday.  At best the Dolphins will win 5 or 6 more games this year.  Buffalo will be a tough game given its a divisional rival and at Buffalo after Thanksgiving.  Jacksonville and Houston always play the Dolphins tough, and they will probably lose one of those games.  The only way the Dolphins will beat Pittsburgh is if the Steelers have home field advantage for the playoffs wrapped up.  New England will be much better prepared the second time around.  So... the only "sure" wins are probably Tampa and Tenn.

The Dolphins were out of the playoffs when we went 0-3. I know that sounds dickish but is true. This season became a dress rehearsal for next year once we lost Pennington ... and I say that only because of the timing.  History and odds say 0-3 teams do not make it and I have accepted that.  I like things our young guys are doing but I just wish we had a WR to break in.

You may be right, but Pittsburgh is the defending Super Bowl Champs and they have a defense that can stop General Patton's tanks. 

Tommy, normally I would agree with that statement, except that it's the last game of the year and it's a pretty solid bet that Pittsburgh won't have anything to play for.  Besides, if we win games 9-14 and then lose to the Texans, the Pitt game probably won't matter for us either. 

And normally I would agree with this statement, except Cincinatti is keeping pace with Pittsburgh this year and Baltimore aint too far behind.  So there is a good chance that Pittsburgh might not be locked into their playoff position when they come to Miami.

We are coming into our easier part of the schedule. TB we should win. Don't sleep on Carolina they can run and play physical. BUF is a division game but very winnable. NE is a revenge game. JAG`s also run well so no push over. TENN is playing better. Hou i don't think we have ever beaten. and PITT... lets hope Pitt have clinched there div when that game rolls around. I think were going to have a 9and 7 record and miss the playoffs. With a lot of luck 10 and 7 and let the tie breakers decide.

after reading this thread, I'm surprised all of you seem to have given up so easily on the playoffs.

It's still possible.  I mean don't forget, this team dominated the Saints and if not for Bess's fumble, would have won the game with a blowout.

The truth is that this team does not belong in the playoffs (much like last year).  This isn't a knock on what the team is doing it is simply an opinion on how good the team currently is.  I for one, am super happy with the progress that has occurred thus far!

With that said, this team has one more shot at the playoffs and it will only come if the Pats struggle against NO and Indy (which I doubt they will lose to both).  If for some reason the schedule does get the best of the Pats and Jets (as it did to us early on) we have a final opportunity against the Pats at home.  If we somehow win that game and don't screw up against the weaker part of our schedule, than there is a chance.  BUT IT IS VERY VERY SLIM!!!

I disagree with this.  I think that we're a good team that probably is playing well enough to be in the playoffs.  The only problem is that we're playing the league's elite teams just about every week.

I don't think we're a great team -- but we are a good team.  We're a team that's hung in there with the very best in the NFL, the Pats, Colts, and Saints -- then we lost in reasonably close games to San Diego and Atlanta, likely to be playoff teams.

Schedule has been a killer for us....an absolute killer.

The playoffs are extremely unlikely, only because we have no wiggle room for error from here out, but I don't see a team on the schedule that we can't beat.  Most of the teams left on the schedule, we should beat.

I just can't put us in the top 6 of the AFC, not yet.  The fact that we can't beat elite teams is a major reason I don't think we belong in the playoffs (again, not yet).

Doc said it best.  Our playoff chances depend on the Pats.  The only way I see us getting in is winning the division and the Pats are starting to roll...looks like they're gonna lose to the Colts but we're still two games back and down the tiebreaker.

What a gift from the pats

I remember several years back, the Eagles converted a 4th and 26 play vs Green Bay, and they ended up winning the game and I think that win got them into the NFC Championship game. Their rallying cry was "4th and 26".

If the Fins somehow end up winning the division, they should be thankful for Belichick's "4th and 2" decision!

You know. I play a lot of poker and stuff, and one key thing is doing what your opponent doesn't want you to do.  I am not sure that was a bad decision.  I am sure if you polled the Colts players to see if they would rather have the Patriots go for it on 4th down, or punt it, they would have all said Punt.

I'm not saying it was a bad decision. I'm not saying it was the right decision either. I'm not an NFL coach. All I'm saying is that the decision didn't work out for the Pats, and could be the saving grace for the Fins.

SOS.  If it works Belichick is a genius. Tonight he's a moron.

It was absolutely the correct decision.  The Colts were probably going to score from anywhere on the field.

PLAY WITH GUTS!!!!

Better to go for broke then putting in the hands of your defense.

With this thread, let's keep updating and debating every week until we are eliminated, then we can lock it down. 

Looks like the Pittsburgh game is going to be tough after all.  They lose to Cincy and are now in a dogfight with them for the division..... and in any tiebreaker, Cincy has the two game sweep over them.

For it to be the correct call it sure worked out badly. I disagree witht he decision completely. They gave the game away by not punting.

Denver is correct, I think.

We really need to beat the Pats to get in, and we didn't.

We need to win out -- if we do that, we probably get in.  If we don't, we don't.

I agree, we need to win out to get in.  We would also need NE to lose at least one more time, to a team not called the Dolphins.  Our chances seem unlikely when looked at like that, but seeing our remaining schedule and the Pats remaining schedule, I like our chances.

If we can use a poker analogy, going for it on your side of the field is akin to going all in holding two pair.  Yeah, you're likely to win with the hand, but go all in?  On your side of the field, you punt.  Get past the 50, do whatever you want.

I'm with the "right choice" group here. Coaches should go for it on fourth down FAR more often than they do, but they don't for one simple reason: CYA. If it fails, they get all the blame. If they punt, go for the "safe" choice (even if it's the WRONG one, the one least likely to give the team a Win), they won't get blamed. "Well, he trusted his defense to step up.". Blah Blah Blah.

Manning had just shown, TWICE, that he could march the field and score in 2 minutes. What on EARTH makes you think he wouldn't have done it again?

The odds of New England converting the fourth and two against Indy's weak-ass defensive line gave the Patriots the best shot at winning. They lost, but that doesn't make the coaching decision wrong. (Although you'll always find people who say lame cliché crap like "well, they lost, so it WAS wrong". Bull, you make the decision with the information you have at the time -- and that's how a decision should be evaluated afterwards as well).

^^^You also read TMQ, huh?

I also advocate going for it on fourth down, but not from my 28 yard line.  On the opponent's side of the 50, I'm all for it.  In some cases, even between the 40 yard lines, I'm good with it.  As I posted in another thread, the Colts had scored on 4 of 13 drives (to that point).  They were down their best running back.  Garcon had 3 catches on 11 passes thrown his way.  Everyone not named "Wayne" was under control, to an extent.  It's no foregone conclusion that Manning would have driven 70 yards on NE with zero time outs and a smidge over 2 minutes, even if he'd already done it twice.  People still kick off to Ginn after he took 2 to the house against the Jets.  (Obviously, Ginn is not in Manning's class in...anything...but I mean doing it and doing it again are two different things).  You punt because it's difficult to drive a team 70-80 yards with zero margin for error, no matter how good you are.

Were I Belechik, though, and was hell bent on going for it, I wouldn't have gone empty backfield, either.  I'd have wanted a running threat, if only to keep the linebackers looking for the dive play or the draw.  I give the man credit, though.  That took stones.

not sure you can compare henne to brady or freeman to manning...

seriously, up with less than 2 minutes left and the opponent only has 1 timeout left, run the ball and punt.

its easy to have big balls when you have brady throwing passes for you.

That's it, I guess.  You think with Brady and Moss there's no chance you'll fail.  I can't really fault him for going for it.  I just know I wouldn't have.

Sometimes. Not out this week, so I don't know what he'll have to say about this particular instance. People always seem to like pointing out (perceived) faults in others, so I'm not sure what his verdict will be.

True, though, he has been on the "go for it on fourth" bandwagon for along time. I'm not as radical in my 4th down mentality as he is, though. His arguments (for the extreme 4th-down "go for it" belief) are based on probabilities in lower-level football and theoretical calculations based on extrapolations of very, very few attempts at the pro level. The advancednflstats guys, on the other hand, produce some sound numbers based on a very large sample size. Easterbrook (TMQ) apparently advocates going for it on 4th and very long, even on your own half, late in the game when behind. Problem is, there just aren't enough cases of that in the NFL to get any kind of real insight. You also have to think that the few cases that exist might well be biased...


Oh, I think you're absolutely right that he went with the wrong play call(s). While always open to second-guessing and the 20/20 hindsight of Monday Morning Quarterbacks (hello Peter King!), I think Belichick as much as admitted it when he said he hadn't decided to go for it on 4th before they got there. Had he KNOWN he was going to go for it, his decision on 3rd down would have been influenced. Imagine if he had RUN on both plays -- or at least on 3rd down, which would have been a likely choice if 4th down was in play (and since Indy wouldn't have known it, a play-action pass would have been my choice).

We are as of right now 1 game out of the playoff picture. Anything is possible

Update:

I think that the easier route into the playoffs is not as the Wildcard, but as the division winner.  If we beat New England in two weeks, we'll clinch the tiebreakers.  We're also lucky enough to play several of the teams with which we may be in the wildcard hunt.

Give it 2 weeks and we'll have a much, much clearer picture.  It may take winning out, but if we lose one, depending on where that loss comes, we can still get in with a little help.  Some of the wildcard possibilities play each other in the coming weeks, so we'll see.

I agree DG, I think the only way we get in the playoffs is as divisional winner.  Which  means we need help from other teams beating the Pats.  As well as the Fins need to keep winning.

Win out and we will most likely win the division.  However, looking at the schedule we have a big-time trap game in Buffalo next week, we still have to play the Patriots in Miami (a game I think we have a 60% chance of winning), Houston (worries me because we've never beaten them, and there's always a shit finish), Jacksonville, who will be a tough test, Tennessee isn't just going to lay down for us, and then Pittsburgh who it does appear more and more will be playing their starters as well however I think we can beat Pittsburgh.  The chances of us winning out are probably 20 to 1, but I still think we have the talent and more importantly the motivation to do it.

Like last year though, the slow start may end up costing us.

I agree BDF. The slow start is what will cost us. There were also the winnable games against the Colts, Patriots and Saints. We were not ready for prime time on Opening Day against Atlanta.

If this team with injuries mounting up finishes 10-6 it would be a miracle.

We are one game back of the wild card contenders.  And we have games against both of them.

We are very much in this race

You're conveniently forgetting the Broncos.

The 3 top WC contenders, all at 6-4, are: Steelers, Jaguars, and Broncos.

The Bengals and Steelers could easily swap, as could the Chargers and Broncos.

In addition to the 3, there are the Texans and Ravens. We play Houston, so we control that one ourselves, but not much we can do about the Ravens.

We'll see... at this point, with the injuries the way they're looking, I SERIOUSLY doubt we'll reach 10 wins, which could easily not be enough anyway.

This season could very well be one of "What might've been?"

But still, with the NFL you never know. 

Ok, for all the KOOL-AID drinkers out there.
  We run the table and play the Steelers for a wildcard spot(of course we win)! Then we sweep through the playoffs to meet undefeated Indy in the AFC championship(of course we win)! Then we go to the Super Bowl to meet the undefeated Saints and of course we WIN!!!
               
             MIAMI DOLPHINS SUPER BOWL CHAMPS!!!
         (man I got to lay off that KOOL-AID 8-8 if were lucky)

^^^ The made-for-TV movie would release shortly after the Super Bowl if that happened, because it would be the greatest playoff run in history. Start the season 0-3, scrap into the playoffs and then beat a pair of 16-0 regular season teams in the final two matchups of the playoffs?

Mercy, that'd be crazy!

That said...it's not gonna happen. Sounds pretty cool though.

The Titans loss helps

Your scenario is impossible.  Not just highly unlikely, but mathematically impossible. 

If the Dolphins run the table AND the Saints go undefeated than the Dolphins would win the division. 

I think our chances are about 25% right now due to the bad start, but it wouldn't be shocking as long as we play our best ball. Truth is, we haven't really beaten anyone good yet, but we DID lose some heartbreakers to the best in the league. We let the 10-0 Saints off the hook and we were one dropped ball from beating the 10-0 Colts. Those games can't be overlooked.

I think if we win against Buffalo and New England while the Pats lose to the Saints, we are in very good shape due to being able to see the finish line. We know if we win out, the division is ours again.

lol.  This is the part where people tell you that a tie this week could let the Pats still win the division and the Saints remain undefeated.

STICK A FORK IN THE DOLPHINS PLAYOFF CHANCES!!!!!!

The Dolphins have to do what they did last year, win the next 5 games.  If they can, and the Patriots lose 1 more on top of the one they will lose to the fish, it goes to tiebreakers.

Wildcard, the Dolphins are 1 game back. 

Well, here's the way things stand now:

- IF NE loses to Buf and the the fish win out, Miami wins the Division

- IF Baltimore loses once more and the fins win out, Miami should get the wildcard

The Ravens lost last night, which puts Miami only one game back from the wildcard, which Jacksonville now holds and who Miami plays this week.  So, essentially we could take over the wildcard spot this week with a win.

I don't think this is correct yet.  I think we still need Baltimore to lose another game.

The Dolphins don't control their own destiny yet.  They will need specific losses by the Patriots, any loss by the Ravens, or multiple losses by the Broncos, in addition to winning out to get it.

I think it's likely that Baltimore will lose another game at some point, and if we win out, we'll probably get in, but I don't believe it's a mathematical lock just yet.

If Denver, Ravens, Mia all win out (and NE wins the division) the 6th spot between MIA and Ravens would be SOV as there was no head to head, conf would be a tie, and not enough common games. 

The Yahoo playoff generator disagrees with you.

You're right Dave, the Ravens hold the tie-breaker ahead of the Dolphins right now.

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/7419/ravens-loss-opens-door-for-fins-jets (http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/7419/ravens-loss-opens-door-for-fins-jets)

Not clear from that article, at all.

Baltimore is listed ahead of the Dolphins simply because they have WON more of their conference games, which is the first relevant tiebreaker. However, they have LOST as many conference games as the Dolphins... so if both teams win out, their conference records will be the same.

(The Ravens are 6-4 in conference games, the Dolphins 4-4.)

In the event of both teams winning out, a tiebreaker between those two clubs would come down to SOV and SOS. Outside of divisions, those are a total MESS and could fluctuate wildly week to week.

If it comes down to a 9-7 tiebreaker, the Ravens get the Wild Card (since all our remaining games are conference games).

All that ignores the Steelers and Jets, of course, who are also in the running at 6-6. What's WORSE, if more than 2 teams are tied at 10-6, the Jaguars are back in the running -- and look to grab the Wild Card with an unbeatable conference record. Fortunately, the Jags have what's quite likely the hardest schedule to end the season (Miami, Indianapolis, New England... and Cleveland).

I'm going to stop trying.  All this shit makes my head hurt.  :P

best case the dolphins finish 2-2 so tiebreakers wont matter.

Yup.  I agree so far, then your analysis goes weird.


If Mia wins out you can ignore the Jets, Steelers and Jags.

MIA has tie breaker over Jets.

In order for MIA to win out, Steelers must lose final game.

If MIA and Jax are tied at 10-6, MIA wins the tie breaker.  Only way both can be 10-6 is if MIA beats Jax getting that tie breaker.   

I stand by my weirdness ;)

You are trying to apply a 2-way tiebreaker (head-to-head) to a 3-way (or more) situation. If the Jags and Phins are the only two teams at 10-6, then you are correct. However, if Baltimore joins them:

Ravens 10-6
Dolphins 10-6
Jaguars 10-6

First tiebreaker: Head-to-head sweep. Not applicable.
Second tiebreaker: Conference record. Tie with everyone at 8-4 (conference).
Third tiebreaker: Common games (4+). Not applicable.
Fourth tiebreaker: Strength of Victory. Who the hell knows.

They've tweaked the tiebreaker system recently to make it a bit more difficult to get two teams from the same division into the playoffs as Wild Cards. The division tiebreaker is now applied first, before those listed above. It doesn't change anything in the example above, but it does mean that our sweep of the Jets means that if they ALSO finished 10-6, they'd be eliminated first.

If MIA wins out and Jax is 10-6, MIA make the playoffs.  But not as a wildcard team. 

;)

Fair enough

If both teams win out and it is a tie, then Ditka would choose the winner, and since Ditka likes Ricky he would choose the Fins, then the Fins would win the Superbowl because they have Ditka on their side.

Win out and pray.  I don't know that New England will lose to Buffalo or lose two other games down the stretch.  I just don't see those things happening because they're so well coached.

Beating Jax goes a long way to securing our playoff spot, I'm sure the entire team is wishing they had a game or two back right now because any one of those games would have fundamentally changed the landscape in terms of their playoff chances.

Well, with this victory, the Dolphins obtained an important tiebreaker against the Jaguars.

Should come right down to the wire

We run the table and we're in, I believe.

Not yet.  We need Baltimore to lose, as well, or the Pats to lose.

Wild Card wise, where do we stand?  We run the table, Baltimore has to lose, and what about the Donkos?

On Sportscentre (canadian sports show) they said that if the Dolphins win out they WOULD clinch at least the lowest wildcard spot.

If BAL and MIA win out (and no other team is at 10-6), BAL wins.

3rd tiebreaker is common games, minimum of four.  In the case of BAL and MIA, common games are NE, PIT, SD, IND.

If MIA wins out, they will be 2-3 (losses to NE, IND, SD)
If BAL wins out, they will be 3-2 (losses to NE, IND)

Even if a third team is at 10-6 (say, DEN), it would be impossible for MIA to leapfrog BAL (as opposed to the leapfrog scenario if NE had lost to CAR and won the rest; NE would have won a 2-way tiebreaker against MIA but lost a 3-way tiebreaker against MIA and NYJ).

^^ Not yet.  You can test it yourself here > http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=WinningPct

Miami still needs help.

They can get in by winning out

+ one of the following:
any loss by the Ravens,
any loss by the Pats
2 losses by the Broncos
3 losses by Cincinnati

Mathematically, the Fins can lose another game if a lot of things go their way, but this is the most likely path.  They don't control their own destiny just yet, though.

Have you seen Baltmore's schedule? LOL!

Mathematics are setting in on the Fishies..........

isn't it funny we are talking about playoffs considering three weeks into the season this team was 0-3 and the playoffs seemed like a long shot.

What was the chances given of making the playoffs after starting the season 0-3?

We still haven't done but it does appear I gave up on the playoffs too soon. The funny thing is I've gotten exactly what I wanted and that seems to be working  ... Chad Henne and much less Wildcat!! For those counting ... Chad Henne is 7-3 right now!! Not too shabby by any means.

And your wildcards are...............

Broncos and Ravens!  ;D

Miami's only chance is to win that atrocious division.

1 loss by the Broncos would do it, providing that loss came against the Chiefs or Raiders. In that case, Miami would pass Denver on conference record.

If we wind up 10-6 with Baltimore and Denver, we'll be in common games territory:

DENVER: IND(L), NE (W), SDx2 (WL), PIT(L)
MIAMI: IND(L), SD(L), NEx2(WL), PIT(W)
BALTIMORE: IND(L), SD(W), NE(L), PITx2(WW)

Baltimore wins that one and gets the first wild card.

Denver and Miami start out from the top of the tiebreakers table, but without a head-to-head, it falls to Strength of Victory.

Right now, the teams Denver has won against (+KC and OAK) have won 58 games. Right now, the teams Miami has won against (+TEN, HOU, and PIT) have won 58 games. In other words, it's going to come right down to the wire.

Like I've said from the get-go, SOV (and SOS) is a MESS!

Both teams have 1 win against the Patriots, so they can be excluded from further considerations. That still leaves quite a few teams, though.

DENVER: Bengals, Browns, Chargers, Raiders*2, Chiefs*2, Cowboys, Giants.
MIAMI: Jets*2, Bills, Steelers, Jaguars, Titans, Texans, Panthers, Bucs.

There are 15 teams, each with 3 games left and although some play against each other, we're still talking about 40 games. Key matchups are those where one of "our" teams play one of "their" teams. Cincinnati @ New York Jets in week 17, for example.

The Bengals have the Chargers (away), Chiefs and Jets (away) remaining on their schedule. I doubt they'll win against the Chargers, but hopefully they'll be locked in by week 17 and rest their starters against the Jets. Either way, a win by the Jets would be a HUGE boon for the Dolphins (we have 2 wins against them, so it would effectively by a 3-point swing).

Oakland and KC suck and have tough remaining schedules. I doubt that get more than 2 wins combined. (And if they do, it'll be by beating Denver or Baltimore... which would get us a Wild Card anyway -- or the Bengals, who also figure on Denver's list, making that result less important -- only less since the Broncos have a sweep, so a Bengals win would be preferable).

The Browns play away at KC, home against Oakland and the Jags. The best result would be wins by the Browns in the first two games -- again due to Denver's sweep of KC and OAK. They could easily lose both, though.

The Giants have @WAS, CAR, and @MIN. Unfortunately, Minnesota will probably be resting their starters, so that's looking like 3 wins.

Dallas play @NO, @WAS, and PHI. Interesting schedule, to say the least. Undefeated Saints, huge rivals and possible division title game. Anywhere from 0 to 3 wins ;)

The Chargers have the Bengals (irrelevant), @TEN and WAS. Since this whole exercise rests on Miami winning against the Titans, that's a huge game. If the Chargers beat Cincy next week, they'll be pretty well locked in, so the Titans should be able to put up a good fight. 1 or 2 wins looks the most likely.

In total, that puts the Broncos at somewhere between +9 and +13, providing the Jets win against Cincy in week 17.

Looking at Miami's list...

The Jets have Atlanta at home, @Indianapolis, and Cincy at home. Atlanta are really struggling right now, so they should be able to get that one. If the Colts lose to Jacksonville this weekend, maybe they'll pull their starters. Big maybe. The Bengals game at home is a biggie, as stated above, but I'm a believer! ;)

Buffalo a loss next week to the Patriots after which they visit Atlanta before finishing the season at home against the Colts. Doubtful they get more than 1 win and 0 looks very likely.

Pittsburgh host the Packers and Ravens before losing to the Dolphins in week 17 (that was the premise, after all). Tough group. A win over the Ravens would open a whole different scenario, so that's a loss. The Packers play really well, so I wouldn't count that in the win column either. Zero it is for Pittsburgh then...

Jacksonville have a tough schedule: IND, @NE, CLE. At this point we should be hoping for a Jax win over the Colts, that would open up some possibilities. Otherwise, this looks like 1 win.

The Titans also have a tough schedule: MIA, SD, @SEA. It would be REALLY good for the Dolphins if the Titans could best the Chargers. Big swing game. 1 win otherwise (again, the premise is that the Dolphins win out).

Houston have @STL, @MIA, and NE. With NE resting their starters, that could be 2 wins.

Panthers and Bucs suck. They might get a win or two between them.

That makes for a total of around +8 for the Dolphins SOV.

To beat the Broncos in SOV, we really need the Jets to beat the Bengals and the Titans to upset the Chargers. Probably also another game or so in week 17 surprises.

But Miami is home watching them crap their pants in the first round of the playoffs. Thats the key!

^^^ Expecting anything else from a team in the early stages of a massive rebuilding job would be fairly delusional...just like expecting the Donkeys to beat anyone in the playoffs is fairly delusional.

I really don't see the Broncos making the playoffs, they are in meltdown mode.  I'm guaranteeing they will lose to the Raiders this week.  The Dolphins schedule is looking easier with Pittsburgh out of the playoffs, not that I think Miami will do much if they do make the post season.  Anyways, I will be at the Buffalo/NE game this weekend, gulp... rooting for the Bills.  The Ravens are the team that will probably edge out Miami for the last playoff spot.

I learned the tiebreakers are far more complicated then I anticipated.

We are behind Jax even though we beat them.

Mind-boggling stuff

We're only behind Jacksonville if there's a tie that involves more teams. If it's just us and the Jags, our victory is the only thing that counts. But if there's another team and we haven't beaten them as well, that's when conference record, common games, strength of victory etc. come into play.

I really doubt the Jags can beat both the Colts and the Patriots, though, so they're not a primary concern.

Rumors are that the Colts will pull their starters. If true, that makes a big difference provided the Dolphins win out. The Jags and Jets could be looking at wins. Both teams feature in Miami's SOV (the Jets twice), but not the Broncos. Those two games would be a 3-point shift for the Dolphins, leveling the expected SOV scores.

I don't know why Peyton wouldn't want to try to go undefeated.  I am sure he has enough pull in that organization to make them try.

I'm still going with we only get in if we win the East.  I think we'll take Houston (finally) and Pittsburgh but am worried about the Titans at Tennessee.  Pats are at Buffy, vs Jags, and at Houston.  I think the most they'll lose is one (Houston) so I'm hoping for a meltdown at Buffalo to give us a shot at the title.  Brady will shred Jacksonville. 


Yep. If he gets four series he'll surely try to put up 28--the over is looking good.

Are you serious, I mean really serious???  what, if any, indication do the Foals show that tell you they're a playoff team?  name the big win in the last 6-7 weeks (when ur supposedly starting play ur best ball)???

you gonna count the G-Men???  they have been maligned for most of the season, since the 5-0 start.  You got smacked by PIT, BAL & SD for a combined 90-20.....wow.  that's some telling nos.  but you did put the smackdown on KC.

truth be told, DEN is in the same boat as MIA.  MIA is a good solid team (year away from making some serious noise),  much like DEN, but MIA has been in EVERY game this year and does not get blown out.  not gonna win every game, but they're gonna hang and get a chance to win in the 4th.

DEN may be good for a WC spot, but nothing after that.

Hard to keep up with this thread, but the most intriguing game in my mind is the Jax-Pats game.  Although it is true that it is a guaranteed win for one of them, it is also a guaranteed loss.

Pats lose and we have a shot at the division.  Jags lose and we have a shot at the wildcard.  When all is said and done, we may not get into the playoffs but I am shocked we have as good of a chance as we do.

The good thing about this situation is that provided the Dolphins win out, we only have to worry about JAX or NE, not both.  Whichever one of them loses that game is no longer a threat.

Just got slimmer. 

We're not going to the playoffs. To me, the only scenario was the patriots losing and us winning out and that's not going to happen.

We need Baltimore to lose twice and for us to win our two remaining games.

Or maybe Denver can pull another major choke job. 

I'm liking that option. :)

It's not over yet...Denver is currently choking to Oakland.

Denver would still be a game ahead.

I know, but first things first.  Not looking good, donkeys are ahead again.

And the Donkeys lose to the RAAAAIDAS!  They need to lose one more.  Still alive, still alive.

 ;D

There are FIVE 7-7 teams in the AFC right now. SIX if the Steelers can score on their final drive. Two teams at 8-6 (Broncos and Ravens).

HOWEVER, the Jags, Broncos and Ravens all have a better conference record, so we'd lose to them.

And the Steelers win on an INSANE end zone catch.

They are going to get smoked in Philly next week, so you might wanna worry about, a)winning your game, and b)the 100 teams you are tied with right now.

Well there are:

2 teams with 8-6 records

6 teams with 7-7 records

The Jags will likely lose to the Patriots
The Jets will likely lose to the Colts
If the Dolphins win out, they will eliminate the Steelers and the Texans
There is good chance the Chargers can beat the Titans

Therefore,

If the Ravens lose their remaining two games, the Dolphins make it if they win out.

The Broncos:

The tiebreaker, after head to head, is conference record.
Then comes best common opponents record
Then comes strength of victory

If the Dolphins win out and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs, Miami will have a 7-5 conference record and Denver will have a 6-6 conference record

SUMMARY:  IF THE BRONCOS LOSE TO THE CHIEFS AND THE DOLPHINS WIN OUT, THE DOLPHINS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

What is the scenerio on Miami's playoffs hopes now.

I just looked. Obviously a win for you.  Jets would have to lose to 3rd string Cincy, and Baltimore loss to the Raiders.

Good luck. I am rooting for ya to beat Pitt for the Broncos to sneak in.

^^^

I don't think so, actually.  The Ravens have the tiebreaker because of points scored.

I could be wrong.

But this season is rigged, so it doesn't really matter

There are 5 8-7 teams

If the Jets, Ravens, and Steelers win, are the Broncos out?

From what the generator says in this situation the wildcards would be the Jets and the Ravens.

So yes the Broncos would not get in

^^^

Where's your generator?  Post the link.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

^^^^

How can I set it to find out what Miami needs to get in?  The instructions are vague.

Click on week 17. Then make Miami a winner against Pitt.  Make Baltimore a loser to Oakland and the Jets a loser to Cincy, Houston a loser to NE.

Other than a time machine?

Miami gets in if ALL of the following happen:

Jaguars lose (or tie) to Browns.
Jets lose to Bengals.
Ravens lose to Raiders.
Texans lose to Patriots.

Oddity: The Dolphins can (as far as I can tell) only get in on a sextuple tie at 8-8 (disregarding the Jags tie).

heres what foxsports is saying right now. they have the jets and broncos in right now too...

FOR THE FIVE TEAMS TIED AT 8-7:

RAVENS win AFC North tiebreaker over STEELERS (division record).
BRONCOS, JETS and RAVENS win tiebreaker over TEXANS (conference record).
BRONCOS win tiebreaker over JETS and RAVENS (strength of victory). — BRONCOS earn No. 5 spot.
RAVENS win AFC North tiebreaker over STEELERS (division record).
JETS and RAVENS win tiebreaker over TEXANS (conference record).
JETS win tiebreaker over RAVENS (strength of victory). — JETS earn No. 6 spot.
RAVENS win AFC North tiebreaker over STEELERS (division record).
RAVENS win tiebreaker over TEXANS (conference record). — RAVENS earn No. 7 spot.
TEXANS win tiebreaker over STEELERS (record vs. common opponents). — TEXANS earn No. 8 spot.

For Denver:

 The only way we win and still miss is:

Balt W
Pitt W
NYJ L
HOU L

Otherwise, we go to Cincy or Foxboro in a couple weeks.

It's annoying, but if the Jets win at home next weekend, they're in.

That's incorrect.

If the Ravens and Jets win, it doesn't matter what the Steelers and Texans do. And you can swap Ravens with Steelers in that one.

I.e. a Jets win combined with EITHER the Ravens or Steelers winning will screw you.

As will the Steelers AND Ravens winning, regardless of other results.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8147d1c0&template=no-right-rail-with-comments&confirm=true

Uhmmm... any point to this? Nothing in the link contradicts anything anyone has said -- nor does it support anything (substantial) anyone has said. Might as well link to the standings.

Broncos!

Strait off of the show on KOA.

Naturally we need to win... next...

If Houston beats New England OR the Jets beat Cincinnati - WE ARE IN.

If Pitt loses WE ARE IN.

If Balt loses WE ARE IN.

So here it is.

Houston W - we're in

Jets W - we're in

Pitt L - we're in

Balt L - we're in


With a win vs KC... THE ONLY WAY WE MISS THE PLAYOFFS is if all 4 of scenarios listed above go against us.
      

No. And I don't care what some half-ass show said.

Houston doesn't matter. They lose every conceivable tiebreaker to the Broncos. They also cannot keep another team in their division from winning a tiebreaker against the Broncos, because the only way they don't finish second in the AFC South is if no team in their division goes 9-7. And, needless to say, that's what's needed if the Broncos win. SO FORGET HOUSTON. (They might matter in an 8-8 free-for-all).

If the Jets win, they control the tiebreaker with Denver.

ALL of the things you said are wrong. Someone isn't doing their tiebreakers properly.

I'm not going to get into this any further in explanation. You can wait until the official word from the NFL and then come back and tell me how right I was.

We need at least one loss from BAL or Jets.

If Hou wins, then we don't care about Pitt's game; otherwise Pitt must lose.

The Hou-NE game looks to be the 2nd most critical for our playoff chances....In addition to Hou serving as a buffer again Pitt for the #6 seed, if NE lose then Cin might be motivated to get the #3 seed by beating the Jets, this is assuming they want the #3 badly enough to risk injuries.

That's exactly what I said (well, different words, same effect).

"a Jets win combined with EITHER the Ravens or Steelers winning will screw you"


Wrong.

And it's an easy statement to disprove:

If the Steelers WIN and the Jets and Ravens LOSE, only two teams are 9-7. That would be the Denver Broncos and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Why would you think an 8-8 team goes in ahead of your 9-7 Broncos? ;)

That alone proves that whatever source you are using for this information is full of shit.

It's true that if Houston WINS in the above scenario (where BAL and NYJ lose), they'll edge out the Steelers. Houston loses EVERY POSSIBLE TIEBREAKER to the Broncos, but they would edge the Steelers in common opponents (TEN, CIN, OAK, MIA -- that's what the Steelers get for losing to the Raiders). That would allow the Broncos to get the 5th seed instead of the 6th seed. There's NO WAY Houston can push you out of the playoffs, however. Except possibly by affecting the motivation of Cincy ;)

I still don't see how Miami is not mathematically eliminated

Alright... you can see from the standings that, right now, there are no 9-6 teams in the AFC. That's simple. Since none of the 8-win teams play each other, they can ALL lose. If Miami wins, then there's a massive tie at 8-8.

After that it gets a bit messy. We would be 6-6 in conference, as would the Ravens and Broncos. The Steelers and Texans would be 5-7, so they'd be out in the cold along with the 4-8 Titans. The Jaguars, however, would be 7-5 and have an edge. Basically, as it works out, the Jags at 8-8 would knock out the Dolphins. If they Jags lost, there'd still be a massive 8-8 tie (six teams) and the three teams with 6-6 conference records (Miami, Baltimore and Denver) would be fighting for the first spot.

One team is eliminated from the tiebreaker at a time, after which you need to start over in the tiebreakers. With 6-6 conference records, the next tiebreaker is common opponents (SD,NE,PIT,IND). Miami has 1.5 wins (averaging our NE WL record), Baltimore 1.5 wins, and Denver 1.5 wins.

After that we get to Strength of Victory. Baltimore loses out (by a good margin) and is eliminated. That leaves the Dolphins and Broncos to start over with the tiebreakers. With no head-to-head games, the tiebreaker falls to Strength of Victory again and this time the Dolphins lose out (marginally). So the Broncos get 5th seed.

Starting over for the 6th seed, conference records bring us to Miami and Baltimore (again). And without a head-to-head game, the tiebreaker once again falls to Strength of Victory where, once again, Baltimore loses out. So the Dolphins get the 6th seed.

Note that the above is valid even if Denver wins its final game and ends 9-7. They would then get the 5th seed as the only 9-7 team and the Miami-Baltimore tiebreaker would then play out as above for the 6th seed.

Sports Center just had the race up, and if both the Jets and Ravens win, the Broncos are out. With the odds that Cincy rests at least part of the game, and the Raiders history of packing it in at the end of crappy seasons, the odds are good that Denver is sitting on the couch with Miami.

Our playoff chances went down the shitter somewhere between Terrell Owens' 60 yard touchdown and when Henne got picked off in OT against the Titans.