The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

WTF just happened?

The pats suck.   Get used to it, they did the same thing to Miami.  Except everyone said how horrible the defense is, instead of how great Peyton is. 

Blame Belichick.

Oh yeah, and Manning.

Belichick is an arrogant idiot and it blew up in his face.

How?  You think those extra 40 punt yards would stop manning?  If the pats convert the 2 yards, the game is 100% over.  The probably have ~75% to convert the play, and backing manning up 40 yards probably only stops him from scoring 10% of the time.  So do the math. 

^ Next time, look up actual stats instead of pulling them out of your ass.

Sorry, what book has the % of peyton manning scoring against a tired new england defense from their own 30 yard line vs. NE 30 yard line.  Sorry your hatred for belichik has made you a dumb results oriented fan.

^ ooh, he called me dumb

goodnight troll

LOL

That quote made me laugh

I agreed with the decision.  You have a chance to seal the game with your all-pro magic wonder boy glamour model QB.  Your defense wasn't going to hold on your 30 or their 30; Manning was basically shredding them at will.  If your defense is going to hold, let them hold on your 30.

Manning rocks.

You have got to punt the ball there.  If you don't think you can stop them you still punt the ball...... Hopefully someone coughs the ball up or Manning makes a mistake and throws a pick.

You have to punt, but it showed how little faith he had in the defense which wasn't able to stop Manning in the 4th quarter. But I was screaming at the TV wondering if someone slipped him some crack during half time or something, This wasn't 4th and inches, it was 4th and 2, a long 2.

As for if it would have stopped Manning if they made it, good chance it would have. Keep in mind that would have been a first down with them still driving down the field. They only needed a field goal to get it out of reach.

I don't think it was a terrible call by Bellichek.  He's always put his players in a position to win, and he thought that the odds were better that they get 2 yards than to have to stop the Colts from driving.  He's made his name by doing this and it's worked out.

Had he converted, everyone would be singing his praises today.

I think Bellichek is an asshole, but he's a great coach and one that goes for the jugular.  I respect that. 

1:  You can't whine to mods when you feel attacked but constantly post insulting items as this (^).  This isn't 1st grade.  Leave the insults at the door.  Try a little more tact, please.

2:  What the hell does "results oriented fan" even mean?  Yeah.  Winning is really overrated. 

I don't agree.  Manning threw two INT's last night and the Pats held him to something like six punts, four of those were three and out situations.  A few balls Manning threw were real ducks and not picked out of pure luck. 

You punt, plain and simple.  Indy needs to get into the end zone, would have 80-70 yards to cover in two minutes and no time outs left.

You punt.

(credit:  Boston Dirtdogs)

(http://bostondirtdogs.boston.com/BDD_BB_duh_111609_JN.jpg)

The Pats have a 70% 4th down conversion rate over the last 5 years.

That means that it's a 30% rate of failure.  I think the  odds were over 30 percent that between the punt return and the time left, Manning was going to drive down the field to win. 

I think he played the odds and played the strength of his team, as he saw fit.  In most cases, with most teams and AGAINST most teams, you punt.  But the Patriots are not most teams.  I credit Bellichek for being confident enough in his team to make the call.  You can't judge only on results -- Tepop is right.

^^^ And how many of those 4th downs were in the same situation? You can't play the odds if the situations are different or they aren't the same odds. Ole Billy boy cost his team the game.

I'm guessing that the 2 yard conversions were even higher than when they were going for it on 4th and long.

  being results oriented is pretty bad.  for instance if i took a bet with someone that the next roll of a die will be a 6. A results oriented person will think it is a good bet if the roll is a 6 and a bad bet if it is 1-5.  whereas it is always a bad bet since over an infinite number of rolls i will lose 66% of all the money i bet.

It boils down to this:

In my opinion --
1) More often than not, the Pats make that conversion, in that situation.
2) And more often than not, the Colts will drive the length of field for a score, if punted to....especially since they'll have 4 downs to convert.

Therefore, it's a sound decision to go for it, given 1 and 2.
If you disagree with either point, then fine.

I had the Colts picked in that game, and was BEGGING the Patriots to please punt the ball. Do I need to break out drive charts and show you how ridiculously fast Payton can drive his team down the field? Especially since, in that situation, the patriots would have gone into prevent mode, opening things up in the middle. Peyton would have picked NE apart in those last 2:00/80 yards. Hell, he was slowing things down to kill more clock with the short field once he'd gone from the 29 to the 1 yard line in two quick plays.

I don't blame BB at all for that decision...I'd have done the same. I just wouldn't have passed the ball. I'd have power run either straight up the gut or off right tackle.

That pass was a quick snap laser to a slanting reggie wayne.  There's no way the patriots could have stopped that play.  It was almost as if they had prescribed the short yardage play in the week's practices.

I still think you have to punt.  Lots can go wrong when driving 80 yards.  At the same time, the Patriots' strength is their offense.

Anyone think they actually converted the first down, though?  Looked like the spot should have been a LOT closer to the marker than they marked it.

no .. with the bobble factored in and when he got possession, the spot was solid

I look at it this way:  you punt on your side of the 50, go for it on your opponent's side of the 50.  Giving Manning 2 minutes to drive 70 yards is risky business.  Giving him 2 minutes to go 29 1/2 yards is just begging for it.

I punt.  The Colts had 14 possessions.  They punted or turned it over on 9 of them and scored on 5.  For the game, they converted 35% of their drives.  Indy was down their best running back.  Their young wideouts weren't doing much (Garcon had 3 catches on 11 passes thrown his way).  I'd have punted, double teamed Wayne on every play, and made the other guys beat me.

Edit to Amend:  SunStroke, I don't think the Pats would have gone into prevent in that case.  They did that on the series before and Manning carved 'em up.  I could be wrong, but I guess they'd have gone after him.

I agree with Maine and JVides.  I would've punted in this situation as well. 

As I've said in all the other threads where this has come up, I strongly believe Belichick made the RIGHT CALL to go for it. Coaches all too often call the CYA-play under the guise of "playing it safe".

Just now, I came across an actual calculation on the probabilities by the guys at advancednflstats.com (link below). Turns out, for the LEAGUE AVERAGE, the right decision would be to go for it... by a significant margin. And you can't convince me that the Pats had a below-league average chance of converting that 4th and 2. Similarly, you can't convince me that the Colts had a below-league average chance of scoring on a 70-yard drive with 2min left. BOTH of those factors increase the already significant advantage of going for it.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

If you really think Belichick should gone with a punt, please give some REASONING behind it, because the history of the NFL, the game at hand... not to mention my casual observance... all indicate that Belichick (however much I hate the guy) made the RIGHT CALL.

Its funny how many of you just cant admit that the pats are a good team. Bill makes a questionable call and I say "WTF just happened" and it turns into Pats suck, and then trying to compair them to the Phins (Apples to a bag of shit) I hate the dolphins but when we beat you, you didn't hear me saying how much they suck. Some of you were saying how your QB is a bag of ass and I was saying how he had a good game.

Well, I think its a 50/50 call. You can end the game if you can get the 4 and 2.  The best D is keeping Payton on the bench. Or you can punt it and hope they don't score, and the way the pats D was looking towards the end of the game I agree with Bills call. What I don't agree with is how they used there timeouts. Falk's call could have been challenged and the way it looked to me he had the 1st?

Imo Bill Belichick made the right call.  The Pats accumulated almost 500 yards of total offense in the game.  They needed 2 more yards to ice the victory and keep Peyton from seeing the field again.  When you have guys like Brady, Moss, Welker, K. Faulk etc. you expect to easily convert 2 yards more times than not. 

Like Stroke, my only problem was the play call.  I think they should have ran a pass play that covered at 5 yards.  I don't like the idea of a 2 or 3 yard pass on 4th and 2.

Apples to a bag of shit--HILARIOUS! 

I'll admit the Pats are good.  They pulled off a win at Buffalo that shouldn't have happened and all three losses this year were close games -- @NYJ, @Denver, and @Indi.  The Jets are probably in for an asswhipping this weekend because they beat NE earlier this year and the Colts debacle.  Good teams win at home, win a few they shouldn't, and come back strong after a loss.  Having said that, here's to hoping the rest of your year goes down in flames, Pats. 

The only stop NE got against IND in the 4th quarter was on a pick (as a result of an apparent miscommunication).  Manning was trashing their defense and had went 79 yards for a TD twice in 1:49 and 2:04, respectively.

Now, if you honestly believe that NE was going to pick Manning and close the game, then fine.  But outside of that pick, NE's defense was like a sieve with no bottom.  I mean, IND only faced third down ONCE in those two drives!  NE's defense was completely useless at that point in the game.  So if you want to run the probability of Brady converting 4th-and-2 vs. a miracle game-ending pick of Manning, then go ahead.  I'd take Brady.

Punt is the conservative move that you take if you are a coach worried about protecting yourself from media criticism.  Every mathematical analysis from every single statistical outlet (every one!) has said that going for it was the superior (or, at very worst, virtually even) choice.  The smart pick is to go for it.  The safe pick is to punt away.

If you want to talk about tactical errors, you should talk about what the hell the Patriot defenders were doing when they tackled Addai TWICE.  Let him score (he was not even trying to pull a Westbrook) and give the ball to Brady with ~a minute left to get into FG range.

^^^^^^

That same strategy was what the Dolphins employed when the Bucs picked off that ball and then got so close to the goal line.  The Dolphins started using their timeouts to preserve time, and boy did it pay off.  Just enough time on the clock to drive down for the game winning FG

Yes, but this is with only 3 down to work with.  Indy would be in 4 down territory for the entire field.

I get that.  I understand it.  I don't necessarily fault Belechik for going for it on fourth down; I just say I wouldn't have (and I'm a very big proponent of going for it on 4th and short).  He gave his team 5 plays to win the game (one on offense and 4 on defense) rather than giving them 8,9, or 10 (if they had punted).  I know people trot out statistics saying he had an 80% chance of converting on 4th and only a 78% chance of winning if he didn't punt, or that at worst, going for it vs. punting is a statistical wash.  My answer to that is that if the statistics are close (and the extremely little analysis I've read indicates the probabilities are similar) then I pick the play that leaves Manning the farthest away from the goal line.  It's not about being "conservative", or "covering my ass" by making the play everyone thinks I should make.  It's about pinning the other team as far away as possible from my goal post and forcing Manning to burn me yet again in less than two minutes, because, contrary to public opinion, marching a team 75 yards in two minutes with only one time out is not easy, especially if the defense is taking away the sideline (as I'm sure the Pats would have).

I laud the Patsy coach for his guts, I just disagree with the thought process.

The best, most succinct analysis I've read so far:

"Would you rather bet on Brady, or against Manning?"

...and just wait until you tell them that you will actually get a non-six number 83.33% of the time! At least you know that it's a bad long-term bet, so not all hope is lost :)

I really hope you are trying to make fun of my post so I can correct you and make you feel like the tard you are.

^^ Dude - we only have one rule and you violate it every day.  Cut it out.

Here's just a suggestion Mods...you could use one of these....

(http://cdn1.knowyourmeme.com/i/7723/original/banhammer1.jpg)


 ;D ;D ;D