The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

I doubt any of you will read this paper, but here it is, should you choose to see the original source:
http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/users/dromer/papers/PAPER_NFL_JULY05_FORWEB_CORRECTED.pdf

It's from an economist who studied NFL data and determined that NFL teams punt too much.  WAY too much.  That in most situations, statistically speaking, you're better off going for it on 4th down than giving the ball away.  The field position difference doesn't help you as much as the chance that you'll convert.

As you get closer to your own endzone, and the line to gain is greater, punting, statistically, is smarter, as is in line with conventional wisdom.  But it's way off from what we think.

Here's some commentary on it, that's not in the form of a research paper...maybe easier to understand:
http://www.johntreed.com/fttfourth.html

I wish someone would have the balls to do this in the NFL.  I bet it would revolutionize the game.

I'm not convinced that psychology wouldn't break this strategy. Opposing defenses would be all kinds of psyched, the offense would get nervous, doubt themselves.

What I do think would be interesting is if someone would just push the envelope. It annoys me to no end to see a team punt inside the 40 of the other team. It's stupid, yet happens ALL the time.

The NFL is a copycat league. If someone pushed the envelope and had success, the herd would follow.  With a lot more 4th down conversions being attempted, the statistics on exactly when it makes sense to go for it might shift.

And therein lies another issue I have with the econ paper, which I read several years ago: I'm just not convinced that the statistical basis is broad enough to eliminate selection bias (teams (mostly) only going for it on 4th down when the matchup is favorable for some reason).

Rex Ryan would do it!

^^^^

More like Dave Wannstedt.... "It's no sin to punt"

I've seen various versions of this paper before that says you have a better chance of making it on 4th down etc.

I do think there's a time and a place to go for it depending on the momentum of the game, how much time is left, the score, how your offense is playing etc.  Generally I see one or two situations per game where I'd be at least tempted to go for it on 4th down.  However, there are worse things you can do going for it than punting.  So it becomes more a case of risk-reward than anything else.

Dave... Because I know you sometimes think even more abstractly than I do, I cannot assume a typo and have to ask: Is it really the "cast" against punting, or the "case?"

To the topic though... If I was an NFL head coach, you would not see me punt from my opponents' side of the field. Once I cross midfield, if I'm not in realistic FG range when 4th down comes around, I'm going for it.

I believe that in the future, a gutsy coach that's not afraid of media criticism will run a no-punt (or very-infrequent punt) offense and storm the league.

Remember, there was a time when the spread offense, the shotgun... hell, even the forward pass were ALL considered reckless and stupid.

Oops...."case".

To me, it depends if your punter is a weapon like Ray Guy was.

That's the one thing that always bugged me about Dave Wannstedt. He punted too much. It could be fouth and 3/4 of an inch and Wanny would punt it. So too much punting could apply to coaches like Wanny.

the problem is that coahes know failing on a 4th down will get them negative press. Just look at Bellichick, he knew statistically the chances of stopping Indy scoring from anywhere on the field were remote, so he went for the 4th down for the game. It was a great call that has backfired.

Fans and the media don't see the big picture, they remember 4th down attempts which fail but not those which succeed, a coach that started going for it on 4th down would be risking their job, but it's only worth doing with a team that has a decent chance of winning.

Thats why only a coach like BB can get away with it.  Statistically BB made the right call. (Some one ran the probablity of converting and the differernt probablities of a team scoring from the different locations on the field).

While BB took some shit in the media for making the right call, there is zero chance that Bob Kraft is gonna fire him over it.  Not many coaches have the job security of Belichick.