The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

The Dolphins are 3-0 on the road this season.

They are 0-2 on at home and have lost their last four home games in the row going back to last season. 

The streak ends Sunday!

Or maybe on Halloween!

I think the Steelers are the toughest opponent the Dolphins have faced all year. 

Possibly.  It's also possible that the Dolphins are the toughest team the Steelers have faced that they have beaten.  Course they didn't have Big Ben when they faced the Ravens so there is that. :)

Um..the Dolphins play in Cincinnati on Halloween.

And if the Bengals win it will break the Dolphin's three game away streak. 

pfft. lol

Dolphin's streak continues.....

Has any team in NFL history ever gone 8-8 on the season, by winning all their road games and losing all the home games? 

You realize that the 3 home games were against the three best teams in the league?

Yeah.  I do realize that.  And one of the away wins was against the absolute worst team in the league. 

Given how much people talk about homefield advanage...don't you find the Dolphin's record even a little funny?

No.

I think no matter where the games were played, any of them, the record would be exactly the same as it is today...

Home field advantage is over hyped.  Vegas only adds a couple points for home field advantage which usually isn't enough to make a difference.  Most of it is which team plays better or just simply is better.  Home field advantage only comes into play in a very tight contest.

home field advantage is underrated. That is why teams go all out to get it for the playoffs in the NFL. You think Indy wants to go play New England outside in January? Your crazy. Teams like Indy and New Orleans with big time passing offenses need home field for them to have a shot to go far in the playoffs. Home Field is vasty underrated

Looking at the last three years....

2010 home team 68-49 .582
2009 146-110 .570
2008 146-109-1 .573

I would call that significant.  If it wasn't the numbers would be a lot closer to 50/50.

I'll admit that at times home field advantage can be bigger, but even in cases of like Indy going to New England and lets say it snows or something, New England has to play in it too.  Granted they are probably better prepared for it than Indy, but it's not like Indy can't compete.  And how often does that happen?  Once or twice a year if that?  There are hundreds of games played every year.  99% of the time it's a small factor and the few times it is a factor, the announcers completely blow it out of proportion.

Ask any player if they would rather play at home than away and of course they are gonna say at home, but ask that same player if they think they have less of a chance of winning on the road than at home and they'll have to think long and hard about answering that. I'll bet you the Dolphins don't believe that.

Some of that is just psychological.  Teams feel like they should win at home and therefore they have a better chance of doing it.  It's a placebo effect.

Another part of that actually has a lot to do with traveling rather than playing home/away.  There's no question that it's more difficult to travel from one side of the country to another before a game than not.  Especially when a couple of time zones are involved. 

So yes, in general it's better to play at home than away, but a lot of it depends on how far you have to travel and such rather than just the fact that you are not playing at your home stadium.  I'd be curious to see what those numbers look like if you figure in East coast/West coast games.

Doesn't matter if it is the placebo effect, wear and tear of travel, the desire to make the fans happy, familiarity with weather and/field, crowd noise on defense...the bottom line is that teams win about 15% more often at home than on the road.  And the Dolphins seem to doing something quite odd so far this season. 

It's not odd at all.

We've played good teams at home.  We've played worse teams on the road.

The Jets, Pats, and Steelers are 3 of the league's best.

The Bills, Bengals, and Vikings are no good, and the Packers are underachievers.

That was exactly my point.  Sure Home field advantage means something, but WHO you play means FAR more.  Home field advantage is overrated.

This is silly, New England is USED to playing in the elements and snow. Indy isn't. That is a laughable defense you brought up.

And yes the odds of winning at home are much greater than winning on the road in the playoffs . The NUMBERS DON'T LIE! If it didn't matter then why do teams go all out to win   division ? They want the home games!!!

Teams that are at home in the playoffs are the ones that are of a higher seed, which usually means they're a better team to begin with. 

I think that Vegas has it about right: home-field advantage is worth about 6 points.

its actually 3pts but why let facts get in the way

True...that is why my stats only included regular season games in which that is not a factor. 

New England isn't really used to playing in snow.  It happens on occassion, maybe once every couple years.  More often than Indy for sure, but it's not like they practice in snow year round.  Most of the time even if it does snow just before the game, they can get the field cleared of snow right before the game. Only when it actually snows during the game or just before the game do they actually play in snow.  Cold weather is a different story, but I've seen seemingly warm weather teams play very well in cold weather.  Most warm weather teams have players that have played in cold weather games in college or high school or whatever, so it's not like they've never played in it before, so how do you know if they were affected by it or not?

The odds of winning at home in the playoffs are greater due to the fact that the home team is the better team in most cases.  If you're playing at home it usually means you have a better record and you're probably a better team and you probably would have won even on a neutral field.  It proves nothing.

Like I've already said, sure teams try to get home field advantage, there's no reason NOT to try for it.  But how big of an advantage it is is unclear.  It's impossible to know.  Just because teams WANT home field advantage, doesn't mean it's going to help them win a game that they would have otherwise lost.  There's no proof of that because it's impossible to prove.  How could you possibly know how the game would have ended if played somewhere else?

The numbers I posted in which the home team one 15% more often than the visiting team are from the REGULAR season. 

But you're still assuming that all other things are equal.  It *should* average out over time but does it?  Is it possible that the slight variation in won/loss is due to something else that you're not taking into consideration?  Is it possible that it's not due to anything at all and just pure coincidence?  It's not like it's a huge difference.  57% to 43% is not really large enough to say beyond reasonable doubt that it's a clear indicator of the outcome of games.  If it was say 75% to 25% then I'd be convinced, but it's not.

I realize that, but that's not what MikeO said.  He said playoffs which is a completely different animal.

LMAO

Anyways, this week should be a good road test.  The Ravens are a good team at home, pretty evenly matched with the Fins.  I believe the line is 4, please correct me if I'm wrong MikeO.

No, it's 6 points.

It's 3 points for home field advantage from a neutral field.  It's 6 points to go from home to away.

Then it's 3 points.

As stated, you gain 3 points over neutral field by playing at home.  Going from home to away eliminates the 3 point advantage for you, but it also gives a 3 point advantage to your opponent, which is a 6 point swing... however, that's compounding two separate events (you losing homefield, and your opponent gaining it).

Put simply: a game that is a pick'em on a neutral field would be a 3 point advantage to the home team if moved to one of the two team's stadiums.

No Dave has it right.  If team A and team B are"equal" than playing at team A's field A would be a three point favorite.  At team B's field team B would be a 3 point favorite.  Moving the game from one home field to another is a 6 point swing. 

Which is STILL a 3 point home field advantage over a neutral site which is what home field advantage means.

plus a three point not at home disadvantage for the other team. 

^^^That doesn't make sense.  If home field advantage was worth 6 points then they'd have to swing the line 6 points if they swapped the location.  It's only worth 3 points according to the line.  In other words if you were to switch the teams around Vegas would only swing the line 3 points.  So thinking of it the way you are home field advantage is only 1.5 points.

For example if Team A is favored by 3 points over team B when they are at home, the game would be ruled even by Vegas when those 2 teams played again at the other's place.  They don't give 3 points to the home team AND take away 3 points from the away team.

Nope if team A is favored by 3 points at home.  Team B would be favored by 3 points at team B's home.  And the game would be even, if played in a neutral location (London). 

I think you're wrong, but I'm not going to argue it, so I'll conceed.

It's not that complicated.

Two evenly-matched teams, A and B, play on a neutral field.  The line is pick'em.

If the game is instead played at A's stadium, the line would be A favored to win by 3 points.
A has gained a 3 point advantage by playing at home.
Home-field advantage is 3 points.

Hoodie, you are comparing a game at your opponent's home to a game at your home.  That is the source of your error, as you are doubling the effect.  You should be comparing a neutral-site game to a game at your home.

The advantage is 3 points, but a switch from home to away (which is what our conversation was about) is a 6 point swing.

This has to be the longest argument I've seen in a while where EVERYONE AGREES yet the arguing manages to continue.

Surely you see the source of the problem.

If "home-field advantage" is "worth about 6 points," then going from your home to your opponent's home would be a 12-point swing.

Right.  I should've said "home-field advantage is worth about a 6 point swing.  I figured you guys would extrapolate, since we were talking about playing at home vs. playing on the road (instead of playing at home vs. on a neutral field).  I think we're all on the same page now.

im home right  now

well so much for the dolphins being the first team in NFL history go 8-8 by losing all their home games and winning all the road game.   >:(

But they could be the first NFL team to go 8-8 by going 1-7 at home and 7-1 on the road. 

I wouldn't bet on it.

Me neither.  I said "could".  Chance will be greatly improved if the Dolphins are facing Hoyer instead of Brady. 

I doubt it.  The Dolphins would struggle to contain the Patriots if BB was the QB.  Shawn Hill looked like an MVP.