The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/28/will-miami-ever-learn-the-marino-lesson/?partner=TOPIXNEWS&ei=5099



Will Miami Ever Learn Its Own Marino Lesson?
By LUIS DELOUREIRO

Luis DeLoureiro operates NFLStatAnalysis.net and is a contributor to the Cold Hard Football Facts.
Miami Dolphins

Chad Henne’s shaky season is almost over, and the Miami Dolphins will probably be addressing the quarterback position in the off-season. Again. And judging by recent history, they’ll probably be doing so via a journeyman backup or a second-round pick.

Consider the players who have started for the Dolphins since Dan Marino’s retirement after the 1999 season (number of starts in parentheses):
• Jay Fiedler (59)
• Chad Henne (26)
• Chad Pennington (20)
• Gus Frerotte (15)
• Joey Harrington (11)
• A.J. Feeley (eight)
• Cleo Lemon (eight)
• Ray Lucas (six)
• Trent Green (five)
• Brian Griese (five)
• John Beck (four)
• Daunte Culpepper (four)
• Sage Rosenfels (two)
• Damon Huard (one)
• Tyler Thigpen (one)

Miami has replaced one of the most productive passers in N.F.L. history with a lot of mediocrity.

The Dolphins have refused to invest a first-round pick in the game’s most important position. They have not taken a quarterback in the first round since Marino in 1983.

The only other franchises that haven’t taken a quarterback in the first round since 1998 are the Chiefs, Cowboys, Patriots, Saints, Seahawks and Panthers. (The Seahawks acquired Matt Hasselbeck in a trade that included a first-round pick.)

Each of those teams, except the Panthers, has a franchise quarterback in place. A first-round pick, for most of these teams, would be wasteful.

In a quirky draft fact, the Dolphins used second-round picks on quarterbacks in four consecutive drafts. They selected John Beck in 2007, Henne in 2008 and Pat White in 2009. They also traded their 2006 second-round pick to the Vikings to obtain Daunte Culpepper. Only Henne is still with the team. During this time, they have passed on Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers, among others. To be fair, they also passed on Brady Quinn.

Using the second round to acquire a franchise quarterback has been a losing proposition. As I stated in a post in April, quarterbacks picked in the second round almost never pan out for the team drafting them. Since 2001, 12 quarterbacks have been taken in the second round. Jimmy Clausen and Henne are the only two players starting for the team that drafted them. And both have a tenuous hold on the job.

Drew Brees was also a second-round pick, but he did not achieve his current level of success until signing with the New Orleans Saints – coincidentally, after the Dolphins opted to trade for Culpepper instead of signing Brees.

In fact, if you look all the way back to 1990, 22 quarterbacks have been selected in the second round and only Kordell Stewart and Jake Plummer led the team that drafted them for any period of time.

For almost 20 years, Dan Marino was the face of the Dolphins. Although he didn’t win a title, he broke just about every significant single-season and career passing record. One would think that, more than anyone, the Dolphins would understand the value of a franchise quarterback. But the team has opted to avoid the risk involved with first-round quarterbacks. Unfortunately, the Dolphins have also lost out on the  reward that comes with first-round quarterbacks.

A few additional notes:
• In terms of yards, the best passing season since Marino was by Chad Pennington in 2008 with 3,653. (Jets fans, that was also his career high.)
• Jay Fiedler is the only post-Marino QB to throw 20 TD passes, with 20 in 2001. Marino threw for 20-plus 13 times (30-plus four times, and 40-plus twice). He had only one season (1997) in which he started 16 games and didn’t throw for 20 TDs.

Well that's a bit misleading since there was really no need to pick a 1st round QB from '83 until at least '95 or '96 and then who knew that Miami would go through such a cold spell of finding a QB after that.  Granted that in hindsight they should have taken a QB in the 1st round in one of the last 8 or 10 years, but that's not really that long and they have taken a number of 2nd round choices.  I was really only expecting them to draft a 1st round QB one time in all those years and that was Brady Quinn.  Shows what I know.

Pat White was a mistake, no question about it.  I don't think Henne was, it just hasn't worked out up to this point.  I honestly was quite excited about John Beck too, but he hasn't worked out like I thought he would either.

But the biggest mistake was getting Culpepper instead of Brees and I was very disappointed about that choice at the time.  I actually wanted Miami to Draft Brees in 2001 and I think there was some talk about that.  That would have solved a lot of problems for Miami the last 10 years.  He's also wrong about Drew Brees, his 4th year in the league was actually his breakout year, 2 years before he went to New Orleans and after 2 years of being just OK as the starter.

If this writer "really" was sincerely looking to be fair, rather than attempting to lead the reader into agreeing with his point, he wouldn't have put three known "success story" QBs and only one "failure story" QB in that example.

There are a couple of other examples of this writer "skewing the verbiage to support his point" in this article, but so many journalists do it these days that it has pretty much become the status quo.
 

That makes two of us...I wanted Brees to come to Miami so bad when he left SD.

I disagree. 

What Miami should have done is drafted a QB in the 6th or 7th round almost every year when you had Marino.  Patriots got Brady in the 6th while they had a starting QB - Bledsoe.  They got Cassel in the 7th while they had Brady.  Greenbay drafted Flynn in the 7th while they had Rogers. 

I think the smart thing to do when you have a franchise QB already is not go find some hasbeen mediocre journeyman that you know will never be capable of being a franchise QB to be the backup.  Instead every year bring in a late round draft pick or UDFA let them battle it out in camp keep the best or two best as back up and 3rd.  Eventually you might find a franchise QB that way.  And with almost no risk or downside. 

They did.  They drafted the following QB's during the Marino years.  Only Scott Mitchell turned into much of anything.  Lightning strikes in a bottle only so many times.

YR. Rd. Player (Pick)
'86 10  Jeff Wickersham (274)
'87 12  Jim Karsatos (322)
'88 7   Kerwin Bell (180)
'90 4   Scott Mitchell (93)
'92 11b Mark Barsotti (296)
'98 6b  John Dutton (172)

We might have be able to hold onto Scott Mitchell a bit longer if Marino hadn't gotten hurt in '93 and Mitchell replaced him pretty admirably and it became hard to keep him around.

What about 93, 94, 95, 96, 97?    His career was obviously winding down at this point.  Maybe not 93 if they thought they had a replacement in Mitchell.  But in '94 they should have drafted someone in the late rounds who potential could have been Marino's replacement and if after a year on the roster he wasn't try again.  Lighting only strikes only so often.  You have to keep fishing. 

QBs drafted by the Patriots while Brady has been the QB.

02 Rohan Davey
03 Kliff Kingsbury
05 Matt Cassel
08 Kevin O'Connell    
10 Zac Robinson

That is one every two years.  And only one out of five has amounted to anything. 

^^ Miami had Bernie Kosar backing up Dan from '94 to '96, there really wasn't much point.  Shula probably thought Kosar would take the reigns from Dan, but then Jimmy Johnson came in and Kosar retired because of injuries.

You do have to question why Jimmy didn't draft more QB's from 96-99 seeing as how he blamed Marino for Miami's failures, but that probably had to do with Jimmy's ego.  He thought he could get anyone to play QB since he'd done it in college when he recruited the top high school athletes every year.  Shula knew better.

^^^ Bernie is only two years younger than Dan.  He never was going to be the future of the franchise. 

'95 was Shula's last draft, so maybe '94 or '95 they should have taken a late round QB, but other than that Shula did exactly what you have suggested should be done.

When Jimmy came in, Miami still had a good passing attack, Jimmy's task was to rebuild the defense and get a running back.  He suceeded at fixing the defense, but failed on landing a RB or a replacement for Marino.  Let's be honest here, Jimmy had no intention of being the head coach for more than a couple years.  He wasn't forward looking.  He was trying to rebuild the defense quickly and get the last bit out of Marino for one last shot at a SB.  Miami is still paying the price for that lack of leadership.

You have no idea how lucky you have been the last several years to have BB.  If it was easy, then there would be 10 of him.  There isn't.  You need to enjoy it while it lasts, because when he's gone you'll miss him.  These things you take for granted now will be only a memory.

Shula WAS BB before there ever was a BB.  You think that the next guy the Patriots bring in is going to be able to do what BB has done?  Keep dreaming.

^^yes, Shula was a great coach.  BB and DS are among the all time greats. And I do know that the next coach Pats coach won't be nearly as good.

One thing that give me hope is that Kraft might by on par with Rooney as owners go. 

But the topic was what should the Dolphins done to avoid going from QB to QB in panic mode as they have for the past decade plus. I offer that they should have been looking during the JJ years, not waiting until DM retired to draft someone in the first round. 

Looking at relevant QBs that were drafted in the 6th round or later from 93-97:

Elvis Grbac (8th, 93)
Trent Green (8th, 93)
Gus Frerotte (7th, 94)
Koy Detmer (7th, 97)

If we're going to play hindsight draft wizard, this isn't a very good approach to take.

Of course, you could argue that MIA should have taken an undrafted Kurt Warner or Jeff Garcia.  To me, that's revisionism at its most stark, but you could make that argument.

I'm not disagreeing with you that it's the correct strategy, I'm only saying that just because you look, doesn't guarantee you are going to find someone.  The Dolphins looked for years with Shula and didn't find anyone other than Scott Mitchell.  The Patriots were EXTREMELY fortunate to get Tom Brady that late.  Cassell is a nice QB, but that's it, a nice QB, not really much to be bragging about.  He's had a great year playing an extremely soft schedule.  He does it again next year, I'll give him his due.

Certainly Miami could have done more and should have, but that's easy to say in hindsight.  I remember the entire NFL busting on the Dolphins for not taking Brady Quinn, but no offense to him, seems like it was the right thing to do to pass on him (not necessarily taking Ginn).

Finding a franchise QB is not a science, it's mostly luck.  A lot of it depends on what happens AFTER you get the guy on your roster.  Had Tom Brady gone to the Detroit Lions instead of the Patriots, it's possible no one knows who he is today.  I firmly believe that.  Miami has done an average job at best of developing the talent they've brought to this team the last 10 years and QB is no exception.  I blame most of that on the coaching staff.  We haven't had a good coaching staff since JJ left and JJ was only good on the defensive side of the ball.  It's not necessarily who you draft, it's what you do with the players you draft that matters.  Miami has done an average job which is why they are an average team.  Get a first class coaching staff in here and just watch how Miami is suddenly brilliant at drafting players.

And I am not saying that looking guarantees you will find some one.  But I like the odds of better of looking at 3 late round picks and 3 UDFA at finding one good QB out of the 6 than the odds that the one you spend a first round draft pick on a QB he will be a good one. 


You only need to find one. 


I agree with you about Pats being extremely fortunate with Tom.  Cassel isn't Tom Brady, but he is better than anyone that that has been behind center for the Dolphins since Danny retired.  Odds of any team getting the next Tom Brady/Dan Marino is pretty small, it is what you hope for, but not realistically expectation.   But a Matt Cassel quality player is enough to build a team around.   


My point is it that you have a better chance at getting lucky the more often you roll the dice. 


The smart thing to help Henne along would be to fire the OC, so Henne will be forced to learn a new offense.   ::) Or maybe not.

Well it certainly can't hurt to forget the old one.

In what respect is Cassel better than Jay Fiedler?

Cassel inherited a 16-0 team and couldn't make the playoffs.
He went 4-11 as KC's starter last year.
He has yet to win a playoff game.

As for 11-5 vs. 16-0.  He ain't Tom Brady.  I think we can agree on that. 

Year before Matt arrived in KC the team went 2-14, they are going to the playoffs this year.  Pretty good improvement. 

Fielder has thrown almost as many ints (66) as TD (69).  Cassel has thrown almost twice as many tds(66) as ints (34).  As the goal is to score points and not give the ball to the opponent, I would consider that as significant.   

Sorry, Hoodie, but by this logic, isn't Chad Pennington better than Cassel, considering that he inherited a 1-15 Miami team from the season before and came in during the middle of the preseason only to lead them to an 11-5 season (with no 4-11 season in between)?  As soon as you stated that Cassel was better than any Miami QB post-Danny, I was screaming to myself, "Over Pennington?!??".  Granted, after two more shoulder surgeries, I likely wouldn't take Penny over Cassel, but I would most definitely take 2008 Pennington (and probably even earlier versions of Pennington when he was having some up-and-down seasons) over Cassel.

As for Spider's suggestion of Fiedler over Cassel...while I'm not sure any number/statistic other than wins can support it, I also think there's an argument to be made for Fielder over Cassel.  I at least think it's arguable, is what I'm sayin'.  The man mostly won, which is a heck of a lot more than what I can say for pretty much any other QB we've thrown out there since Dan besides Pennington in '08 and Frerotte at times during the '05 season. 

I agree otherwise--the rest of the guys have mostly just sucked, and I've been so disappointed in Henne's play this season, particularly being a Michigan fan as well (but having watched him in the past, even though I never thought he'd be great, I don't recall him ever looking this bad, so I do believe coaching [or lack of it] has definitely played a role in his *regression*).

Back to Fielder real quick--though it's been said numerous times on here before, I still always think about the 2002 season, and how well we were playing prior to Jay's injury in that Sunday Night game at Denver, and what happened to that team for the better part of 4 or 5 games while Ray Lucas had to take the reins.  Unlike some people around here, I don't absolutely despise Lucas because of those games (though I certainly wasn't happy with him at the time), but it further reinforced to me that Fielder wasn't absolute garbage like a lot of fans made him out to be at the time...especially with some of the quarterback *play* we've seen since as well.

*Sorry for the semi-hijack, but I think all of this is still related since it has to do with quarterback play, even if it was in the past*

I'm not quite convinced that he really knows the current offense, so there is not much to forget  ;D

Q: In what respect is Matt Cassel better than Jay Fiedler?

A: In any respect that involves having your eyes open while watching both play the QB position.

Ha ha ha...definitely got a laugh outta this post, 'Stroke, as usual from you. 

Anyways, admittedly perhaps I don't have the best grasp/feel for Cassel's *talents* because, in comparison to someone like Jay who I watched nearly every game of for numerous seasons, I've really only mostly watched one season (2008 NEP) of Cassel's, and though he wasn't terrible that season, I honestly wasn't very impressed with his play.  The one thing I did notice in comparison to Brady is that at least he brought a little mobility to the position--not that it's as necessary there since their linemen never get called for holding, it seems (sorry Hoodie! Had to take that shot).

When it comes to teams like the Chiefs, who I'm typically indifferent towards most seasons but have appreciated what they're doing this season because they are a) so young, and b) have a TON of talent out of the SEC (Alabama native, Auburn #2 college team), I usually don't get to--or even choose to--watch a lot of their games so I haven't seen many of his starts as a Chief (probably a handful to this point).  Last season's *highlights* that I saw looked pretty rough for him, though, and even 3 or 4 games into this season, I can still remember some of the football guys on nfl.com and a few other sports sites speculating if Cassel might not be KC's limiting factor--which I didn't take to be a good outlook for his play.  There's been awhile ago now, though, so perhaps he's got it figured out now. 

I'd still say Pennington is/was better than Cassel, though, regardless.....

I think Jay fiedler gets a pretty bad rap.  Look at how his backups did when he went out.  He was a good 3-4 stopgap for the dolphins. He was 16th/ 9th/ 13th in Any/A for 2000-2002.  With as much money as they put in the defense, to have a qb who performed that well while not really hurting your cap at all is pretty good. His last year in Miami was really bad, but I don't think you can take away from his first 3.

Not the point.  Cassel took one of the best teams in the history of the league and, if not quite "ran them into the ground," took a MAJOR step back.

In fact, it's practically impossible to argue that Cassel was even the best QB in the AFC East that year.  Pennington finished 2nd in MVP voting and took at 1-15 team to 11-5.  That's a 15-win swing between the two QBs (Penny +10, Cassel -5).

...except that he was there last year too, and they went from 2-14 to 4-12.  So to summarize:

- Cassel inherits highest scoring team in NFL history, then proceeds to lead the league in sacks and lose the division to a team that finished 1-15 the year before
- Cassel inherits garbage 2-14 team and gives them a whopping 2 win improvement over Tyler Thigpen

The only thing I gather from that is that Cassel is definitely better than the guy who started the season as our 3rd QB.

Fiedler never led the league in sacks taken (he was never even in the top 10), and he certainly didn't do it with (again) the highest scoring offense ever.

Although I'm happy to continue arguing Fiedler over Cassel, you've already lost the war on this one: Pennington was clearly better than Cassel, so your premise is refuted.

In those years Fiedler's ANY/A was 5.1, 5.6 and 5.9 respectively.  Henne's ANY/A the last 2 years has been 4.8 and 5.1.  Not really a striking difference there.  And as you mentioned Fiedler's last year with the Dolphins was his worst where he posted a 4.9, worse than this year for Henne.  In fact 2001 and 2002 were Fiedler's best years as a pro for ANY/A.  Fiedler was also in his 5th year as a player in 2000 when he first started for the Dolphins, whereas Henne was in his 2nd.

Furthermore if you analyze all of the QB's who have taken the majority of the snaps for the Dolphins for each year since Marino has retired, it is Henne that comes in 4th this year behind Pennington's 2008 and Fiedler's 2001 & 2002 seasons.  While Henne may not be the future of the franchise, he's been better than the majority of QB's the Dolphins have rolled out there since Marino retired.  I would at least like to see what he can do with a different coordinator before writing him off.

Well to tell the truth, I would rather have Fiedler than Henne. And that says a lot about Henne and the Dolphins as an organization !!!

well 5.1 this year is 27th ranked qb in the nfl, 5.1 in 2000 when fiedler did it it was 16th. The NFL is much more qb friendly now so it is easier to put up good numbers.   Henne's receivers are a ton better than what Fiedler had to work with.

I don't agree.  If you look at the top numbers year over year, the numbers for the top QB's fluxuate up and down with the players, there's not a consistent pattern of the numbers going up.  All it really suggests is that there were not as many QB's putting up good numbers in 2000 as there are now. 

In fact in 1999 that 5.1 would have been ranked 25th in the league similar to this year, in 2001 it would have been ranked 28th and in 2002 31st.  Fiedler happened to be playing in a couple years where the QB's in general were not that great.  Today there are a number of great QB's and several more very promising players.  In 2000 the top 4 QB's in ANY/A were Kurt Warner, Brian Griese, Trent Green and Jeff Garcia.  Whoa, that's some stiff competition for Fiedler and I do mean stiff.

Not sure if serious.gif.  Trent Green had 4 out of 5 years in a row with an ANY/A over 7.0.  The only year he didn't was the first year with a new team. And Kurt Warner will probably be in the Hof.   

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

sort by any/a. not surprising that the top 3 years are 2008,2009, 2010.

And today we have Tom Brady, Phil Rivers and Aaron Rogers since Peyton Manning and Drew Brees have had sub-par years for them.  2000 was a down year for QB's.

Or the rules have changed and it is easier for qbs now. 2000 is right with 2001 and 1999 for league any/a.

No it's not surprising because Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Phil Rivers, Ben Roethlisber and Aaron Rogers were in their prime during that period.  In 2000 it was Kurt Warner and Trent Green.

Or, because the rules have changed it is easier to be a qb.  Like 2008 when Brady was out and only 5 people had over 7 ANY/A the league average was still way higher than 2000 when there were 6 over 7 ANY/A.

Or there is just simply more HOF caliber QB's now than in 1999-2001.  How many HOF QB's were in their prime in 1999-2000?  How many now?

Let's just put it this way, in 1996 Dan marino led the NFL with a 6.6 ANY/A.  The rules have changed a lot, especially in 2004.

And the next year Steve Young led with a 7.5 and the previous year Brett Favre led with a 7.2  I fail to see what any of this proves other than the numbers vary from year to year.