The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

I was staunchly against this just a few weeks ago.  However, something about Henne's performance in the last few weeks has disgusted me so bad, that I think it's not even worth entertaining that he will be a viable stopgap QB.  I think that we're going to have to get another long-term solution, but I don't even think that Henne can keep it together in the short term.   I only wanted to hold on to Henne for his future prospects, but now since I have no faith in him, maybe Vince Young or McNabb isn't such a bad idea, as a 1 or 2 year solution.  They will likely play better than Henne, and I don't see us getting "the future" that will be suited up and playing right away.

A retread couldn't hurt.  I wouldn't even mind giving Thigpen another chance.

^^^ Might as well. Can always throw Henne back to the lions as the backup QB if Thigpen doesn't work.

We almost have to get a re-tread QB. Picking 15th we won't get one of the big 4  first round picks most likely. And the drop off this year is somewhat big. So if we take one after Round 1 that is a project player who can't play right away. Hell even Newton or Locker if they fall to us at 15 is a project who probably can't play right away.

Thigpen is a free agent so he's gone. Bring in a Vince Young, McNabb, Jackson type....let them compete with Henne. Draft a QB in the middle roudns if there is one you like and there ya go. If not, then wait till next years draft to take a QB you like.

Thigpen, really?  If we're going to go retread, shouldn't we go with a guy that's proven to have the goods in the past?  At least with, say, Carson Palmer, you know what he can do if he's right.  Same with Donovan McNabb.  I'd even rather give up a few picks for Kevin Kolb.  I feel like Miami's QB situation might be their version of Kyle Wright (Henne) and Kirby Freeman (Thigpen).  UM fans, you know what I'm saying, right?

I don't see the Eagles giving up Kolb for anything I'd be willing to give up. I agree with Dave. At first I thought a re-tread wouldn't help,  but our play at the position has been bad enough where I now say it couldn't hurt.

If we are going to go re-tread, I can see two options.  If we can find a young prospect, then I would be in favor of McNabb.  Personally, I think he's pretty much spent, but at least he could mentor a young QB.  From everything I've seen, McNabb has his head screwed on straight and even if his play is diminished, he won't embarrass the team by his off the field antics.  Even with all the crap he's been given in Washington, he's been a stand up guy.

The second option is to go with Vince Young; but I don't think he's a stop-gap measure.  If you chase Vince, I think it's with the expectation that he will be your guy for some years to come.  Young is only 27, so there's a lot of football left in him.  Of course the issue is his mental stability and character.  He seemed to do fine at Texas, so I wonder if he couldn't turn things around in Miami, with the right coaching staff around him.

Since I don't think we will get a top QB prospect, I'm in favor of taking a shot a Young.  I'd like to see us bring in a QB coach that could work with Vince and help him build the tools that would make him successful.  At the same time, we could take a late round QB prospect and see what happens.

Thigpen should be the qb of the team next year.  He is good, and he is only 26.

Thigpen had some statistical success in a spread offense with KC, where he could use his scrambling ability.  I just don't see how that works in Miami with the personnel we have.  From what I've seen, he will make some plays, but he will also make poor decisions and turn the ball over. 

What have you seen that would make you say he's "good"?  I think he's a back-up and not much more.  Before you point to his play in Kansas City, let me point out that they didn't think enough of him to keep him, and instead brought in Matt Cassel.   

They got a new coach who brought in his qb from the other team.  Thigpen never really got a chance with Todd Haley.

Ok, then...In K.C. he was the 3rd Qb, Behind Huard,and Croyle....and only played because of injury,Neither of the other two guy's could stay healthy enough to take the job that season...He was constantly about to be benched as soon as one of the other two became healthy enough....He wasn't the chosen starter...He played out of necessity

Haley kept OC Chan Gaily who had implemented the spread offense that Thigpen was running.  I think it might have had something to do with Thigpen's record as a starter - 1 win 10 losses.  When Thigpen wasn't in the spread offense, his QB rating was 44.  

So, I'll ask once again.  What have you seen that makes you such a strong supporter of Thigpen as our starting QB when there are other options available.  What have you seen that would make you believe he is "good".  I have nothing against the guy, and I think he is a very serviceable back up who can come in and win a game or two; but I don't see him as a guy who is going to grow into a quality starting QB.

I'm not picking on you tepop, you aren't the only person on the board promoting Thigpen.  Since I think it would be a failure of the front office to not at least attempt to improve at the QB position, I'm going to keep pushing back when anyone suggests that Thigpen is the answer.

Retread is one thing.  Look at the FA list somebody (Hoodie?) posted.  It's chock full of guys who are washed up and weren't worth a shit to begin with. 

If you take out his first couple starts in kc, he was really good to end the year. His Any/A was very good, and he added a lot of rushing yards. His real problem is that has gotten thrown in these mop up roles as a 3rd string and thrown a couple picks which are killing his stats. I think he could be a good qb in the future for the dolphins and I think sparano was an idiot for not playing him the last couple games.

I'm against a retread QB.  I was always a fan of McNabb, thought he got far too much of the blame in Philly.  However, he seems to have a chip on his shoulder now and is only in it for the money/himself.  Vince Young is too much of a head case and would be a distraction.  Not sure if Thigpen would be a good starting QB or not, I think he deserves a shot in preseason.  However, others on this site have said since he is a FA and has not been offered a contract yet that it is unlikely he will be back.  Henne definately disappointed this year, I think he actually regressed.  I still think he has potential with the right QB coach and OC.  Let him fling the ball out there and let the receivers make some plays, yes there will be interceptions, but hopefully it will result in more TD's and better decision making in the future.

I'm curious as to why you feel this way.  I'm not an expert on McNabb, but it seems at a quick glance that he's done everything he was supposed to in Washington, and hasn't caused a stink, despite getting treated poorly by the staff there.

Because Todd Haley saw him play and practice and decided he sucked....and Haley was and is right

I hope i don't confuse you with facts, matt cassel was traded to kc before todd haley conducted any practices.  Matt cassel signed a long term deal with 28 million in guarantees before todd haley conducted any practices.  there was no chance that tyler thigpen was going to start over matt cassel regardless of how he played in front of todd haley.

probably didn't have as much to do with todd haley as with scott pioli.

You don't think Haley watched tape of every game from the season before once he took over? Please.

There was no chance because Cassell just won 11 games in new england and is a good player and Thigpen was playing porly in garbage time in KC.

thigpens year in kc he had a 5.1 any/a, and cassels first year he had a 4.3 any/a.  it was pretty stupid for kc to sign cassel to big money because of his one year in new england.

Yeah, the stupid Chiefs made the playoffs this year with Cassel.

^^^ WPOTY (by far)

Cassell just won them the AFC West and got them a home playoff game. Yeah, STUPID KC!  ::)

You and that any/a stat. It's like watching a dog with an old rope chew toy...no matter how nasty and slimy the thing gets from all the drool, you just can't get the dog to let it go.

(Yes, you can go ahead and report this post for an "uncomplimentary comparison" now)

Well ANY/a is a lot better indicator of how good a qb is in a team game such as football.  It is quite ridiculous to use wins and losses as a evaluation of an nfl quarterback.

I personally use my eyes, which most of us wish you would use more. There are three types of lies; lies, damn lies & statistics.

yea, because you guys were right on with your assessment of ronnie brown and chad henne.

A re-tread QB is fine with me, but I want Vince Young or Tavaris Jackson (more mobile, not on the downside of their careers already like McNabb) who can compete with Thigpen and Henne. And then when we solve our offensive issues with a run game which actually threatens yards up the middle any of those three will be able to get some productivity in the passing game.

Any time you focus on a single metric to judge a player, even the mighty-mighty "any/a" panacea, you miss out on all the details that provide both relativity and context, making any judgment of that player a "general estimate" at best. 

And, to get things back on track:

I don't have any problem with using a retread QB as a "keep the seat warm" solution, until the team finds its young franchise QB...as long as I see the team is actively trying to draft/sign/develop that franchise QB. In the meantime, let's make sure we build up a strong enough "overall team" so that when the future franchise QB does arrive, he doesn't get his ass traumatically kicked out there.

It isn't a single metric. passing yards is a single metric, tds is a single metric.  any/a incorporates all the important single metrics.

Especially when you subjectively use a multiplier to try to quantify how "good" or "bad" a certain statistic is compared to the others.  If you were to manipulate those multipliers you would get a completely different list.  What makes this one particular formula any better or worse for determining QB effeciency than any other?

I understand what any/a is...and it is a single metric made up of a finite group of modifiers.

It isn't the end-all for statistics, and it makes a pretty tiresome crutch.

I pray our scouting department looks at more than any/a stats before choosing Miami's next QB, or we're summarily screwed.

Which one of these quarterbacks would the dolphins be screwed with next year?  The only ones I wouldn't take over Henne (that have higher any/a) are kitna and kerry collins because of there age.  I also would prefer not to have donovan mcnabb.

(http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f236/tepop/2010anya.jpg?t=1295305400)

I'm sorry, which player was it that you accurately evaluated as good?  Ricky?  He didn't exactly set the world on fire.

It's easy to sit back and say that the important skill position players suck.  If you're wrong, we probably won the Super Bowl, so no one cares.  If we didn't win, you get to play the "I told you so" card and blame it on the key players.

Tell us who you accurately predicted as successful (and please, no cop outs like "I told you Jake Long would be good," which virtually everyone agreed on).  Otherwise, your unconstructive pessimism is useless.  When nearly every person in the organization is a disappointment, throwing around "I can't believe you guys thought this bum was good, haha" insults works on everyone, including you.

ricky was like 4.1 ypc this year and ronnie was like 3.7

Ricky sucked.  He had more fumbles than R+R TDs.

Is your argument that he sucked less than Ronnie?

edit: I notice you are quick to go to one of the only statistics that makes Ricky look not-worse-than Ronnie.  Since you are such a champion of ANY/A, I hope you realize that using straight passing Y/A (like your citation of Ricky's rushing Y/A average), the list of top 10 QBs in the NFL includes such luminaries as David Garrard and Jon Kitna, and excludes scrubs like Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.

Which ones are available?

What exactly has my position been since you seem to throw me in with everyone else? Just because I think your points are typically crap doesn't mean my position is what you think it is.

To me things just didn't smell right with the Washington situation this year.  Why would you bring in McNabb then bench him at a critical point of a game?  Obviously, McNabb rubbed Shanahan the wrong way.  My impression was that Shanahan didn't think McNabb was giving 100%.  So, my feeling is if a guy isn't going to give a 110% then the Fins don't need this guy at this point.

I disagree.  I don't think he's a starting QB in this league. 

I like how Thigpen is "only" 26, when 26 was too old when it was the age of John Beck. ::)

i think there is a big difference between a 26 year old who has been in the league 4 years and a 26 year old rookie.

I'm sorry if this is a stupid question..but wtf is Any/A tepop?..I've only seen you reference it..

adjusted net yards per attempt

(pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks)

In terms of pure statistical value (i.e. contributing to a win), interceptions are being given too negative a weight. And I don't much like placing sack yards on the quarterback. At least not with that high a weight (same as passing yards). That might be their statistical contribution to the game outcome, but as a tool for quarterback evaluation, it seems like there's little to favor ANY/A over standard passer rating.

favoring qb rating over any/a. lol.  put on your casual fan hat please.

Any stat in which the first term is "adjusted" is blatantly made-up crap, IMO.

Without even looking into the statistical breakdown, I think it's perfectly reasonable to weigh interceptions at -45.  An interception is both the lack of opportunity to further advance the ball on subsequent downs in that set, and a lost opportunity to punt.  Do you think that it's unreasonable to say that an interception is, on average, 45 yards of lost field position, compared to a drive in which an INT is not thrown?

As for other yardage valuations (and the ANY/A calculation in general), I'll just say this: the numbers that they are using in that formula are far from arbitrary.  They put a lot of work into determining those values (as you can see from the discussion of how they arrived at a TD being worth 20 yards (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=633)).

Now, if you want to argue that stats are overrated and you can't quantify heart (or something similar), then fine.  But if you are going to enter the realm of statistical comparison, ANY/A has a pretty solid foundation.

Furthermore, if you are going to choose a metric to compare to, passer rating is a bad one; it greatly overvalues completion percentage.  There is an oft-cited example of passer rating's shortcomings: the QB who goes 3/3 for 9 total yards will have a better rating than the QB who goes 1/3 for 30 yards.

I'll start with the last.

The problem is not statistics, it's statistics that lack context. Attempting to improve upon passer rating at a comparison metric without taking ANY context into consideration is ridiculous, IMHO.


I strongly dislike the conversion of everything to yards. While perhaps somewhat arbitrary, I'd prefer if the conversion were to points instead. It's much easier to argue how many points a given number of yards is worth than what number of yards a touchdown should be converted to. Or, even better, just call it a "score" and don't pretend its yards or points.

I've seen statistical analysis that puts the "cost" of an interception at around 3.5 points, or half a touchdown. Now, if you look at the average starting point in the NFL and without looking anything up, I'd guesstimate around the 30 yard line. That puts the value of a touchdown at roughly 70 yards and the value of an interception at half that, i.e. 35 yards.

Now, if you dole out points for yards alone, regardless of what happens on those drives, things are clearly being counted double. The 70 yards you moved and the 7 points you got. How you decide to split the difference is somewhat arbitrary, but key when comparing to interceptions. Splitting the points equally, you could put the value of a touchdown at 3.5 points or 35 yards.

That would mean 35 and -35 in the ANY/A calculation instead of the 20, -45 factors used. I.e. the "cost" of an interception compared to a touchdown is being overvalued by more than a factor of 2.


Like I said, any metric that doesn't take context into considering AT ALL is doomed to fail. It's easy to pick and choose scenarios where one or the other looks ridiculous. Completion percentage has a big value when there's a lot of passes (how relevant is it that the metric work in 3-pass situations?) since it means being able to churn out long drives, which not only scores points but also allows running out the clock. ANY/A completely ignores this aspect.

If you're going to replace passer rating by a "simple" compound metric, why not include downs? A first down in and of itself has value. There's also a big difference in "points lost" on an interception thrown on first down and on third down. This would be simple enough to incorporate in the simple compound metric. (And by simple, I'm referring to a lack of regression analysis, not taking time remaining, position on field, current score, or opponent strength into account).

I'd like to say that the accountant, who lives in a world filled with statistics, metrics, and other measurement tools finds this discussion of QB rating metrics extremely boring.  If I have to be a stats geek to move past "casual fan" status, as one of you suggests, then casual fan I am.

Unless this adjusted formula changes with the times to account for changes made to the game, it's a semi-useless tool as well (How does Otto Graham fare by this metric, or even Sammy Baugh?).  How does the physical corner play permitted during the 70s and 80s (or worse, the early years of the sport) compare to the "don't touch 'em" policies of the current era?

What kind of context are you talking about?  Do you require the same context when you say that Chris Johnson had a 2000-yard season, or that Jim Brown averaged 5.2 yards per carry, or that Peyton Manning's career passer rating is 94.9?

Then you should be happy to learn that they have also provided a conversion of yards to points (and vice versa).

From the article I linked, an "average passing yard" is worth .0653 points, and one point is worth 15.3 "average passing yards".

3.5 * 15.3 = 53.55 yards

That would seem to place an even bigger value on interceptions than the 45-yard number that you complained about.

I'm not going to get too far into the numbers game here.  I know enough about the statistical crunching to realize that we are both FAR out of our depth; while I don't pretend to know all the variables, I've read enough articles on the subject to recognize your evaluation as far too simplistic to be considered comparable.  Again, I suggest you read the article I linked in my previous post.

What makes you think first downs aren't part of the metric?

The ANY/A is a simplified metric, used to calculate the value of passing yards per attempt without having to manually break down each attempt by individual situation.  It is the result of combining many smaller, more situation-specific formulas.  Now, if you prefer to go through the game logs and break down each individual pass, knock yourself out; there is a plethora of statistical formulas available that will allow you to break down the effectiveness of each individual pass in context, giving you the most accurate evaluation possible.  But if you want a formula that can be applied to every QB fairly easily, and still give more contextual value than simple passer rating, ANY/A is the way to go.

The problem that I have with stats like this one is not the formula itself, it's the rankings of the players using that formula and what we read into them.  Ok, we put all this stuff into a formula and pull out this stat that shows that a QB who had a GREAT year had an 8.2 ANY/A this year, but an average one had around a 5.7.  Then there's Henne at 4.9.  What's the difference?  A couple of tenths of a point.  Which if I'm translating this corrrectly is about 3/4's of a yard difference per pass attempt from Henne to an average QB.  And this means that Henne STINKS?  Players ANY/A will go up or down by several points from year to year depending on how successful his team is.  Does that mean that QB's go from being great QB's one year to lousy ones the next or vice versa?  If the stat really determines how good a QB is wouldn't you kinda expect that a QB's ANY/A would gradually get better every year, peak at somewhere in the middle of their career and then gradually tail off at the end again?  That's NOT what happens.  It fluctuates WILDLY from year to year in most cases. One year it's 8.2, the next it's 6.7 or vice versa.  What's that telling you?  It's telling you that it really doesn't tell you much about what the player will do the next year, it's only telling you whether or not he had a good year this year which can be dependant on a MILLION things, not just the talent level of the QB.

Hell it's not even ACCURATE for Henne this year because they have his stats WRONG.  He DIDN'T throw 19 INT's he only threw 18, but because the refs were brain dead that play OFFICIALLY he threw 19 INT's.  So because the refs made a mistake, Henne is a suckier QB?  Really?  Well then maybe some of those people above Henne just happened to get LUCKY and get better refs or perhaps Henne was LUCKY to get the refs he did and he's really even suckier than his ANY/A shows.

It's a stat.  That's all it is.  It doesn't prove anything except that Henne had a bad year.  No shit.  I don't really need the ANY/A to tell me that.  Does it mean that he'll be just as sucky next year?  Nope.  Not even a little.  It's NOT a predictor of future outcome, it's merely an indication of the type of year that the QB had this year.  We'll just have to wait till next year to find out if he's sucky again.

If you are going to use that 2000-number to argue that Chris Johnson is a better running back than random-other-back who had 1800 yards, yes.


They aren't. You quoted the formula. There were no "downs" in it.


Nice of you to pick and choose ;). As I pointed out, it's only relevant in the comparison of what a touchdown is worth. Going by the numbers you supply, they are valuing a touchdown at 1.3 points and an interception at 2.9 points. It's the ratio that I'm arguing is significantly off.


I've read just about every "football stat" site out there. My statistical background is fairly solid, certainly good enough to crunch the numbers these sites do.


There is no more context in ANY/A than passer rating. Both have ZERO context.

ANY / A = (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks)

Passer Rating = 100 * [ (completions/attempt - 0.3)*5 + (yards/attempt - 3)*0.25 + (TD/attempt)*20 + 2.375-(INT/attempt)*25 ] / 6

In situations where none of the components of the passer rating are maxed out (there's a min and max for each), it's easy to see that yards/attempt count only a quarter in ANY/A and interceptions nearly twice (1.8) times as much. Other than that, ANY/A counts all sacks AGAINST the quarterback, while ignoring completion percentage (and vice versa with passer rating, which ignores sacks, while including completion percentage).

Should interceptions really count for twice what they do in passer rating?
Should sacks really count against the quarterback? (Is this really something you want to fold into a single quarterback stat? Why not rushing then?)
Should completion percentage really be completely ignored?

Like I said, as a tool for quarterback evaluation, it seems like there's little to favor ANY/A over standard passer rating.

^^^You guys need jobs...who has time for this shit?   ;)

take 2 qbs, QB A goes 30/31 for 300 yards with 1td/1int. He also takes 10 sacks for -100 yards.  QB B goes 30/41 for 300 yards with 1td/1int.  He doesn't take a sack.

It is clear that QB B is the better qb, however the qb rating for QB A is 104.3, where it has QB B is listed at 91.5. A's any/a is 4.375, and B is 6.7. 

Completion percentage is a really useless qb stat.

No, not clear at all. Seems like QB A had a horrible offensive line making his remarkable completion percentage all the more striking (and indicative of skill). In terms of helping his team win, those incompletions can really hurt the team -- how many punts would they lead to on average? (As opposed to rushing TDs, which aren't counted for the quarterback.)

QB B's stats could easily cover a losing effort against a "bend-don't-break" defense, that allowed him to go the first 50 yards and then incomplete passes forced a punt or settling for 3 points.

Yes, you could conjure up a scenario where QB B throws the ball away every time QB A was sacked... but, like I said before, it's easy to manufacture scenarios that make one stat or the other look bad -- especially since neither contain any CONTEXT.

Bwahahahahahaaaaaaa

If this were a debate, I would be awarding most of the points to Tepop.

I have defended Thigpen against haters in the past and been luke warm as to promoting him.  But I have to say that from what I have seen he has developed a good bit even without getting proper practice reps.  I saw him throw a good bit of incompletions that hit receivers in the hands, numbers and helmets.  I only recall one interception that was his fault and that was against Pittsburg in 2009.  His O-line was in absolute disarray in the only start he got with us and it was on a short week.  As we all saw in that game, the defenders were on him as soon as he touched the ball.

Perhaps Tepop is simply a better QB evaluator than any of us.  He came across as nothing more than a Henne hater with an agenda but in reality his foresight was pretty accurate.  With the exception of Kolb or Hasselbeck, I can't say I would prefer someone else under center at this point.

I'd like to get that re-tread from the Colts.  As of yesterday the Colts hadn't started negotiations with P Manning yet, although Irsay says he will make him the highest paid player.  Ross outta throw a couple hundred million at Manning to try and tempt him, worse thing that could happen would be the Colts would have to shell out more money.  Oh...and maybe a little public embassment when he rejects the offer, but hey everyone's already forgotten about the last fiasco.

Even though the final outcome was different. Thigpen played better against the bears in a loss than Henne did in a win against the jets. If only they let him play the last few games of the year instead of just garbage time in the last game of the year that we were gonna lose anyhow !!!

Barely and don't forget that Henne's game was played in a downpour most of the game.

Thigpen: 17-29-187-0-1-6-(39) = 2.94 ANY/A and 63.4 Passer rating.
Henne: 5-18-69-1-0-5-(25) = 2.78 ANY/A and 53.3 Passer rating.

And for the year Henne played better.

Thigpen: 33-62-435-2-2-8-(50) = 4.79 ANY/A and 73.0 Passer rating.
Henne: 301-490-3301-15-18-30-(178) = 5.08 ANY/A and 75.4 Passer rating.

I don't see much reason to think that Thigpen is any more capable than Henne based on this year's stats.

^^^ Neither is a quality QB, that is why I think having a debate on which one to play is going to prove to be wasted breath.

Henne had 3 games worse than the Jets game.

Which means that he had 11 better and overall was better than Thigpen this year.

no

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. BORING!!!!!!!!  y'all are killing me with this any/a thing.