The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

Just hypothetically speaking, let's assume that with this win today, the Dolphins don't win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.  Now lets assume that they want to move up to get the top pick in order to acquire Luck.  To avoid shelling out a boatload of picks, they may have to part with some players.  Who do you think they would part with?  Here's my list:

Brandon Marshall-  May have worn out his welcome here with his off-field drama and penchant for drops.  He is still a great receiver, and some team needing receiver help would want him.

Cameron Wake-  Play has dropped off because he is drawing double teams.  Put him on a team with another pass rusher and he'll go to the Pro Bowl again.

Vontae Davis-  I know, we just spent a first rounder on the guy, but he runs his mouth too much, doesn't make plays often enough, and we've found a solid replacement in Jimmy Wilson.

Make no mistake, Jimmy Wilson is awful.  He is a walking PI penalty when he's not able to stop a pass.

He is a rookie 7th round draft pick so I don't expect much from him.  Even so, he has been nothing short of completely awful this season.  He's so bad, Sean Smith looks good in comparison. 

He can be tenacious, though, so he's got that going for him.  But then again, he did beat a murder wrap to make it into the NFL.  Maybe he could scare some WRs off some balls.

seriously lol @ thinking jimmy wilson is good. He is fucking terrible. are you blind?

He had a hell of a game, dude.

Jimmy made some rookie mistakes but I think he has potential. If whoever ends up with the first pick wanted to trade it that would require a lot of picks.So I dont even think this is an option.

Wilson was bad today but has upside. He is great on special teams and will improve in the secondary.  He could be a solid nickle CB someday in this league

If he was on steve breaston and gave up 7 catches for 115 yards, that isn't good.  And he was fucking awful last week too. 

I had several choice words of Wilson today.  "Good" was never one of them.  Whenever a big play was made, it was against Wilson.  There is a reason why he's been victimized 2 weeks in a row.

Can he get better?  Sure.  There's a lot of room for improvement on this entire roster. 

If you think Wilson was good today, then you have absolutely no idea WTF you're talking about.  Wilson was the one piece of the secondary that was repeatedly abused today.

The three of them seem to be all equally useful and useless at the same time.  The only one I would probably not consider trading is Cameron Wake.  The one I'd most likely trade is Brandon Marshall, however I'd revisit this at the end of the year and see if I still feel the same way.

I've said it before on this site, and I'll say it again. 

I'll give the next coach the decision on what to do with Marshall or anyone else on this team.  Is he a tradeable piece?  Yes.

Do you want to?  A new QB would love a big target to throw to.  There are too many variables in this scenario to make that decision.  Each player might fit another coach's vision better than another.

Marshall isn't as easy to move as everyone thinks.  Nobody is going to want to take on that contract for that headache.  I'd give Marshall one shot with the new coach.  If he chills out and produces, keep him.  If he's still a pain in the ass with a case of stone hands, make him a deadline move to a team desperate for a WR.

The only way you can trade up to get Luck is with picks.  ....lots of picks.  You can't trade your garbage.  You aren't going to get from Marshall what he's worth....he'd be a throw-in at best.

If Miami ends up with the #2 pick behind Indy, the only chance Miami would have in trading up would likely involve:

1) Indy deciding that Peyton's neck is groovy and that he wants to play 3 more seasons, thus eliminating Indy's need for Luck.

2) Indy becoming infatuated with one of the other top non-QBs expected to go top-3ish, thus making Indy hesitant to trade too far down in the order.

...and even then, it will still likely take a whopper of a package, like our #2 overall pick, plus a second rounder this year and a first rounder next year. That may be a steep price, but if the rest of the QB-needy bottom-feeder teams recognize #1 to be the case, Indy will be receiving ridiculous offers left and right in the days leading up to the draft, all reported, tweeted and retweeted every 15 minutes. It will be straight-up Barnum and fucking Bailey.

If Indy has 1 and MIA has 2, I say fuck Indy....let them pick who they'll pick.  If it's Luck, great, we take Landry Jones.  If it's someone else, great we get Luck.  If it's a trade up with another team, great we get Landry Jones. 

If Luck is as good as they say, I'd trade the farm.

We throw away #1 picks on crap all the time.  I'd pay whatever it took to get as close to a sure thing as possible. 

Would you make the deal as I laid it out above? The #2 overall (or Landry Jones, just to put a face on it), plus our 2nd round pick (#34 overall), plus the next year's first rounder...for the right to select Andrew Luck at #1?

More than likely, it will be a trade up with another team.


You're spot on about this.  If the Dolphins end up with the #2 pick, some team below them is going to offer more to move up to #1.  The reason is, the further down you are, the more it costs to move up.  Indy will grab those picks if they think they can win another title with Manning because they need more picks to restock their roster.

The question is not would I make the trade, the question is would Indy?

What I find interesting is that almost no one thinks that trading up for Luck is possible and yet at the same time no one seems to think that trading for Peyton Manning is possible either. If I'm Indy I'm doing one or the other for the overall good of the team.

You have my position wrong Pappy. I don't think trading for Peyton is impossible. I think it is unwise. I don't think you would get enough return on a QB of his age with a neck problem.

If it's unwise for the Dolphins than it should be wise for Indy, shouldn't it?

Maybe trading Manning to Miami is not the right trade, but trading one or the other I believe is the right thing to do if you are Indy.  If you decide you are going to keep Manning then trade the 1st pick and get something for it. If you trade with Miami, you could still pick Landry Jones with the 2nd pick and maybe get an additional 2nd round pick out of it and possibly more. How's that a bad move? On the other hand if you trade Manning to someone, like say oh maybe Tennessee, you can start Luck next year and get an additional second round pick or something, maybe more. How's that a bad move? If you're Tennessee would you make that move? I'd be tempted.

Since we aren't Indy fans, we really aren't talking about what is good for Indy. We are discussing what trades would be good for Miami.

Well you can't really discuss one intelligently without discussing the other in my opinion, but maybe that's for another thread.

Yes.

If this was the only way to make it happen and we were dead set on wanting Luck and nothing less then yes make it happen. He is supposed to be the next best thing in the NFL when it comes to QB's.

Wow, I couldn't disagree more.

You are so willing to go all-in on a "supposed to be" player that you'd mortgage the future?  This from the same guy that's so concerned about the future that you're wearing a Redskins jersey next Sunday.

Just because so-called "experts" say he's "supposed to be" a "sure thing" doesn't make it so.  I'd rather draft 3 or 4 quality guys and a #2 QB than a #1 QB and no one else.

I don't follow the logic there. We have tried drafting a bunch of quality guys and looking into the second round for a QB for the past few years, and here we sit at 1-7. What's to lose? Honestly, at this point, I'm like "take a chance." Bunch of people thought ATL was nuts for trading as much as they did for Julio Jones, but it took one play yesterday to convince me it was worth it. Trade 1st rounders, throw in a second rounder, add the water boy, throw in some towels and a golf vacation- whatever. New England looks to be declining this year; you can bet they will restock HARD in the offseason. All of a sudden Buffalo seems legit, and the Jets are at least an 8-8 team every year. Miami keeps drafting really good role players, we're going to keep struggling with a third of the schedule minimum when we play the rest of the East. -EK

Indy won't trade Luck. Everyone with this pipe dream that they is wasting their time. They will talk Peyton off the ledge and tell Luck this is a good thing. They will make it work. Polian is one of the best in the business for a reason.

^^Why are you just assuming that the best situation is to have both Manning and Luck on your roster?  You yourself have said that the days of drafting a rookie QB and sitting him on the bench for a couple years to groom him behind a veteran are gone. Why not pick one and get what you can for the other one? That seems like getting the most bang for your buck. Having both of them on your roster is simply a waist of talent.

Now that's just my opinion, you may have a different one and Indy might too, but you seem to be implying that it's the only logical thing to do and I don't think it is. It's the "safe" thing to do, but not necessarily the best thing to do.

Those days are long gone, but Polian is going to find a way at least for 1 year to make it work. He will want to look like the evil genius around the league who has both Manning and Luck. Just my prediction. It's an ego stroke thing with him. He loves the media attention and will want to be the guy who had both Manning and Luck on the team at the same time.

If they don't go that way, then Peyton I think will be gone and they will stick with Luck if they have to pick one. We will see.

The most recent rumor I heard floating around was that if IND, STL, or CAR gets the #1 and trades it, it will cost somewhere in the range of four first-round picks.

Big boys only at the table, please.

If Indianapolis ends up with the first pick, they're taking Andrew Luck.  Done deal, take it to the bank.  Why?  Because it makes the most sense in the world to do so.  This year proved how valuable Peyton Manning is to the Colts.  I realize he doesn't play defense, but if Peyton is healthy this year, the Colts are at least at .500 right now.  The Colts go all in on Peyton Manning every year by never having him a serviceable back-up, and this year it bit them in the ass big time.  Drafting Luck would be an automatic upgrade over Curtis Painter in case Peyton proves to again not be the iron man we all thought he was.  Not only from a potential back-up stand point, but Luck would be the perfect successor to Peyton.  Peyton has another 3 years in him before he's packing it in.  In today's CBA and Rookie Scale, it wouldn't be outlandish to sign Luck to some 5 or 6 year deal without breaking the bank.  Do this, groom Luck under one of the greatest quarterbacks to EVER play the game, and you have yourself another 15 years of Hall of Fame Quarterback play in Indianapolis.  See also:  Joe Montana/Steve Young and Brett Favre/Aaron Rodgers.



Back on topic though:  Miami should be content with Landry Jones.  Jones is a pretty damn good QB in his own right.  No ridiculous trade should need to happen on draft day, Unless of course a team like Seattle or Washington ends up with a higher draft selection that Miami.  It's a weird situation this year that most of the teams the are potentially drafting in the top 10, have some sort of quarterback situation already figured out.

1. That is a rumor.  Aka someone who knows as little as us, speculating.
2. The cost will be very dependant on the draft position of the trading partner.  E.g. #1 overall for #2 overall plus XXX, is entirely different than #1 overall for #32 overall plus YYY.  If this years superbowl winner want the #1 overall (e.g. the QB sustains and career ending injury in the 4th quarter and the team wins anyway) they will likely have to give this years first and second plus next years first plus more.  OTOH, #1 overall might be had for as little as #2 overall plus #34 overall, if the team with the first pick doesn't want QB but is hot and heavy on another player.

When is the last time someone traded the first pick away (let's not count Eli Manning because that was not a trade of position but a trade of picks)? Why do we discuss it every year?

As you point out it's just a rumor, no one knows what three different teams would want.  That said, given the over compensation by Oakland for Palmer, I'm sure the price will be high, but I don't think anyone is stupid enough to give up four first round picks.

2001

Atlanta got the number one pick

San Diego got the 5th overal selection and Atlanta's 3rd round pick

If there actually is a team with four first-rounders in their mind, it won't matter a whole lot where the other team is picking this year.

As for whether or not someone would actually do it, I'll repeat a hypothetical question that I've asked other people in real life:

If you could know, in advance, that drafting player x will definitely result in one Super Bowl victory where that player is voted Super Bowl MVP, how much would you trade for the right to pick that player?  A #1?  Two #1s?  Your entire draft?  Two drafts?

At the end of the day, it comes down to whether you believe that Luck is what they think he is.  If you don't, then you shouldn't trade for him at all.  If you do, what kind of value can you assign to a John Elway or a Tom Brady?  They are franchise-changing players.

Yep! And lets be honest if the Colts had never taken Peyton Manning they would still be playing in the RCA Dome. If the Broncos didn't acquire John Elway odds are they would still be at the old Mile High Stadium. It's the stuff like that you can't put a price on. A once in a generation player not only will win for you but they build up your franchises overall value in many ways.

I could buy the 4 first rounder theory, simply because the contract for the #1 overall pick won't involve $50 M in guarantees (or whatever the number would be).  That signing bonus used to be the deterrent for many teams.  Now, the combination of "once in a generation can't-miss" and friendly rookie contract rules could very well make the #1 pick extremely expensive.  I think if the price were 4 first rounders, I'd swallow hard and...probably do it. 

I figure it this way:  under the old system, if you guessed wrong, the contract killed your team.  In the new system, if you guess wrong, the loss of 4 first rounders kills your team.  The risk is the same.  If he's your guy, you go get him.

Yes it will. 

Take a look at a standard draft value table. 

http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

The difference between #1 and #2 is 400 points.  Which is equal to a mid second round pick.

The difference between #1 and #32 is 2410 point. The 21st pick overall is worth 800 points. 

Granted the number one pick is worth more this year. 

So lets pretend the Jets win the superbowl but Sanchez suffers a carreer ending injury during the fourth quarter.  Lets also assume the Jets get there not on the basis of the Mark, but because they have a really good defense and running game. 

Lets assume the Colts have the first pick overall.  The Dolphins the second.  Lets also assume Peyton is 100% healthy.

Colts receive two offers and only two offers:  Jets and Dolphins:

Dolphins offer pick #2 (2600 points) and next years first (worth somewhere between 590 points if the Dolphins win the superbowl and 3000 points if they get worse) min of 3190 points and that assumes that the Dolphins win the Superbowl with a rookie QB even though QB isn't the only problem the Dolphins have.

The Jets offer #32 (590 points) oveall and 2013, 2014 and 2015 first round picks.  (each worth between 590 and 3000 points).  However, if the Colts believe that the Jets defense, running game an elite QB means the Jets will be making the playoffs for the next 3 years then each of those three picks are worth less 800 points or less.  590 + 800 +800 +800 = 2990.

Odds are what ever team trades for Luck is not likely to have high 1st round picks in the future (that is why it might take four of them) so the known value of this years first round pick is very very important. 

Hoodie, trying to predict what a team's draft position will be two, three, and four years from now is complete and utter folly.  Allow me to demonstrate:

NYG: 12th in 2005, then 25th, 20th, and 32nd in following years
ATL: 17th in 2002, then 23th, 8th, and 27th in following years
IND: 4th in 1999, then 22nd, 11th, and 24th in following years

And I'm not sure that I buy the argument that lacking a first-round pick for the next three years means that your team will be extra awesome.  Luck may wind up being good eventually, but on a bottomfeeder team missing three years of #1s?  I don't think that's exactly the recipe for short-term success.

Yes, very difficult to predict.  So really don't know what the picks might be worth. 

Median value is 975. If we use that value we would get......

2nd pick overall this year = 32nd pick overall + 975 +975 + a mid 4th round pick.

But Spider I made a major mistake in my prior analysis....alas a 2012 1st round pick is not equal to a 2013 1st round pick and a 2013 1st round pick is not equal to a 2014th. 

Generally a future pick is worth one round less than than the current round.  For example for a very late 1st round pick in 2011 the Saints traded a future 1st round pick of unknown value + a late second round pick.

So if we go by that and use the medium values

2013 first round pick = 2012 2nd round pick = 187.5 pts
2014 first round pick = 2012 3rd round pick = 113.5 pts
2015 first round pick = 2012 4th round pick = 34.25

So 2nd pick overall in 2012 > 3rd pick overall in 2012 + unknown 2013 first round pick + unknown 2014 first round pick + unknown 2015 first round pick + unknown 2016 first round pick.

So if the Dolphins have the second pick overall and offer that plus there current third second round pick there offer will have more point value than the team who is picking third overall offer 4 firsts and 4 seconds.