The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

I know typically when you start a sentence with "If the season ended today," you're typically talking about playoffs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_of3QWRs_I


But in this situation, I wanted to start a thread that keeps everyone posted on who would have the first pick (and/or where Miami would be drafting), and I'll update it weekly.

After Week 9

1) Indianapolis
2) St. Louis
3) Miami

Yes, and if the Fins beat Washington next week they could fall as low as 7th in the picking order.

I think you meant when the fins beat washington next week...

True, but then the schedule gets BRUTAL after that.  2 - 14 is honestly the best I see this team doing, and it wouldn't surprise me for John Beck (assuming he's still starting) for have a monster game against "his former team."  usually works out that way  ::)

^^ Did you see Miami beating KC 31-3?  Of course not, no one did. So while it's possible they go 1-15 or 2-14, it's just as likely in my opinion they win a couple more and end up like 3-13 or something like that and who they beat is anyone's guess. On any given day Miami can beat anyone in the league. It's not likely, but unlikely things happen all the time in the NFL.

its amazing what good qb play does for this team.

moore keeps playing well, and this team could win a lot of games in the second half of the season.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_of3QWRs_I


I wonder if the Chiefs coach said after the game " The Dolphins are what we thought they are, but we let them off the hook".

Doubtful because they did not have a big lead and blow it as was the case in the speech Dennis Green made when the Cards let the Bears come back and win!!!!!! The Chiefs were never in that game!!!!!

31 - 3?  No.  But I did say that KC and Washington were the only games they had a chance of winning.  It's in another thread someone, too lazy to find it.  Not being a homer, or starting any kind of argument, but it is what it is.  I don't see them winning more than 2.  Just how I see it.


But to quote Chris Berman:  "That's why they play the games"

IF this team has a 3 or 4 or 5 win year and doesn't get a franchise QB in the draft next year, that's very bad. It doesn't get much worse than that.

If Miami ends up picking 7th or 8th they will need to consider packaging up a ton of picks to move up and get Jones or Barkley even possibly Luck at whatever outrageous cost he would be.

Agreed.  I'd even consider pulling a Ditka and giving up the entire draft. 

As of today I would give up 3 first round picks for Luck. No more. Anything more is insane. I mean that 3 first round picks and swapping spots in this years draft, so, that's alot. But probably worth it.

If that is impossible to do (which I think it will be) then you are looking at Jones and Barkley. And while I won't get into what we give up without knowing how low we are drafting, I am NOT against giving up whatever it takes to get one of those 2. All of these picks are nice, but mean nothing if you don't have a QB. You can have the best team in the world but if the Matt Moore's of the world are your QB you will suck. Period. Have a nice win now and then, but never be a .500 team or better. Get the QB at all costs, and everything else falls into place.

The more we win the harder it will be to get a QB and the longer we will be a below average franchise. It's the ultimate catch 22. We have to lose this year. But what can ya do other than hope.

I don't think this is gonna happen, not in Miami anyway. Start out your head coaching career at Miami by giving up your first round pick, plus the first for the next 2 years? That's coaching suicide. Maybe give up this year's 1st and this year's 2nd and maybe a #2 next year or something like that. Maybe. Even that would be risky in my humble opinion and you better be damn sure the guy you are getting is worth it. I'm not convinced that Luck would be worth that. I'd think I'd rather roll the dice and pick another QB and hope you luck out...so to speak. :)

I hear what you are saying, but looking at Miami's schedule it doesn't appear as daunting as it once looked. 

WAS (22)
BUF (14)
DAL (15)
OAK (21)
PHI (16)
BUF (14)
NE  (12)
NYJ (11)

There's not a top 10 team in there if you go by ESPN's current power rankings and they just beat the #18 ranked team 31-3. I don't want to insinuate that Miami is gonna win any of these games, they very well could lose all of them, but I don't see a game in there that Miami could not win. The only team I think is better than ESPN's ranking's suggest is New England. The rest of them I think are ranked pretty appropriately. Such is the nature of the NFL these days. Parity reigns supreme.

IF the Dolphins win against the Skins I could see them possibly winning 2-4 more games this year. Buffalo, Dallas, Oakland, Philly are all potential wins with some positive psychological influence.

I'm not saying I want to see us win games and not get a QB in this draft but there are plenty of teams who have improved and won big who never had the number 1 pick in order to get there. It's not hopeless because we don't get the first pick.

I don't mean to be a pain the ass, but the Power Rankings are as useless and Albert Haynesworth.  You can't judge a single thing by that.  Just my honest opinion.  Who knows though.  It all depends on which Miami shows up.

Sadly, I said that about almost every game before the season started, and here we sit at 1-7. -EK

Agreed, but make just a few more plays and we could be 3-5.  The difference between 1-7 and 3-5 is literally a play or 2 here and there.

I don't want to sound like I'm making excuses, I'm not. We deserve our 1-7 record, I'm just saying that the difference between the Dolphins and the Raiders and Washington is really quite small.

I'd say that's pretty accurate. I've said before that this current team is far more talented than our 1-15 team. -EK

+1

After Week 10:


1.  Indianapolis ( 0 - 10 )
2.  St. Louis ( 2 - 7 )
3.  Carolina ( 2 - 7 )
4.  Miami ( 2 - 7 )
5.  Minnesota ( 2 - 7 )


I'm not going to lie, I'm not sure how the tie-breaks would work.  I want to say Miami could still have the second pick, not sure if it's SOS or SOV.  Insight?

That draft order is bad for Miami. 2 teams ahead of the fins who don't need a QB. Giving lots of teams (Wash, Seattle, Cleveland, Denver...etc) a chance to jump ahead of the Fins and take Barkley or Jones. The ONLY saving grace is St.Louie needs WR help so bad they probably wouldn't pass up Blackmon. But still not good.

In my opinion Miami needs to be at least 3rd!

Strength of schedule might work in Miami's favor against St. Louis, Minnesota and Carolina, but it's gonna be close. They all have fairly tough schedules, but Miami's is actually looking a little easier with Buffalo, the Jets and New England all dropping a bit from earlier in the year. However that could also work against them if they should happen to win a game against one of those teams.

^^^

Won't have to worry about Carolina drafting a QB thats for sure. Same for Minnesota and St. Louis in my opinion.

What worries me is if someone offers the moon and stars to move up.  If I'm Carolina or Minnesota or St. Louis, I'd take it.

That's different.

It's inverted SOS; the team that had the worse opponents gets the higher pick.

But look at the BIG PICTURE! The teams WITH QB's are trade options for other teams to move up ahead of us and take a QB. They can trade down and still get the guy they want and pick up extra picks in the process.

It's a scary thought..but we'll probably be unsatisfied regardless

If Miami is picking 4th or 5th and if they have to give up a 2nd and a 1st rounder next year just to move up 1 or 2 spots to get a QB it's gonna suck. I mean they gotta do it, but it would suck. Just finish in the bottom 3 and we are guaranteed Luck, Barkley, or Jones. And move on from there.

So by your theory, the top 3 picks are set in stone?

Not by any means, April is 5 months away. BUT if a team needs a QB, then you can't risk not being in the Top 3 because you open yourself up to a team (ie Washington, Seattle, Cleveland, Denver, KC...etc) doing something stupid and giving up the ranch to jump you and take a QB.

I mean if Miami is picking 4th and doesn't end up with a QB then for christ sakes that is a huge failure. Are we going to wait till Rd 2 and take our next Pat White, John Beck, Chad Henne?? Please! 

Let me get this out of the way that I 1000% agree with your theory, just IMO I don't see Cleveland or KC making a bank breaking trade to get a QB.  KC is a different story, but they can get by with Cassel. I just don't see Cleveland giving up on McCoy when he has NO weapons on offense.  And if Tebow keeps winning games, he could very well stay in Denver.  We all say that the only stat that matters is the "W,"  and Tebow is 3 - 1.  Seattle and Washington scare me the most.  Washington has been known to make stupid moves, and making a huge trade might actually pay off this year.  Also, Pete Carroll could make a package deal to ensure he gets Matt Barkley. 

You haven't watched Cleveland much this year. McCoy has been beyond awful. He makes Chad Henne look good. I don't care if he lacks weapons he is so bad you could put him on any team and he would fail. He is a bad QB who is getting exposed.

The one "real" team Tebow played (detroit) he lost too, and badly. Running around like a chicken with your head cut off vs KC and Miami and even a so-so Oakland thing is one thing. Starting week in and week out and beating good teams consistently is another. He is running a gimmick offense and like the wildcat in Miami in 2008-2009 once teams catch on the gimmick will stop working. Denver is in the market for a QB don't be fooled by a couple wins vs some bad teams.

You're right.  I haven't watched many Cleveland games this year, except for the Miami game obviously.  Idk, it just seems foolish to me to give up on a second year player who has NOTHING to work with.  McCoy looked very promising last year IMO and while he has regressed, I think a legit WR (paging: Justin Blackmon) would do him wonders.  And you're right about Denver, but back to my original point of "if the season ended today"..I'm not sure Fox could/would say Tebow isn't the answer after he's won games and he's a clear fan favorite.  I know, I know, fan's perspective is garbage and IMHO, Tebow is garbage as well, but Denver front office might see more pressing needs than QB.  I'm probably wrong, I mean John Elway IS calling the shots, so QB might be on their mind. 

I find it absolutely hilarious that in one post MikeO talks about the Dolphins moving up and it has to be done and then in another he discusses other teams doing it and calls it "something stupid" (That isn't a knock MikeO, just an observation on the humor behind it).

So if I'm understanding this correctly (and I apologize if I'm not), as of right now the order would like like this (SOS)

1.  Indianapolis - 0-10 - (.548)
2.  Miami - 2-7 - (.512)
3.  Carolina - 2-7 - (.524)
4.  St. Louis - 2-7 - (.549)
5.  Minnesota - 2-7 - (.580)


I know Miami's schedule gets harder at this point.  So the SOS will shoot up, but if this is the case, we're all part-time Carolina, St. Louis, and Minnesota fans for the rest of the season

^^So does anyone still think winning just 1 more game doesn't matter? It would move Miami down from #2 to at least #5 on that list. In this year's draft, that could matter a lot.

Again, I have to point out what Spider said above, no one is advocating throwing a game, we just aren't cheering them on for a win. I still don't understand why that's such a big deal. It's not like whether or not I cheer for the team to win on Sunday actually effects the outcome of the game or anything. Right?

I would be really pissed.  I support having an 18 game season with 2 bye weeks to give us more football.  Let's not start ending the season in Nov. 

Because this is the first time in my life I have ever seen Dolphin fans root to lose. I can't recall any fans of other teams rooting to lose either (and I know fans of a lot of loser teams).

Well I'm not rooting for them to lose, I'm just not rooting for them to win. I just sit back and enjoy the game win or lose. It's actually kinda nice. I think some of you should try it. :)

Am I the only one who posts on this board who will be rooting for the Dolphins this week? 

And of course that is assuming none of those other teams pick up a w or 2 before the season ends as well.

No, I root for a victory every week, every game, every year no matter what!!!!!

+1

+ 2

You twisting my words and talking about apples and oranges. The Dolphins HAVE to do it. They haven't taken a QB in Rd 1 since 1983 for christ sakes. And I don't expect the Fins to do something totally stupid like give up every 1st or 2nd round pick in the next 3 drafts  to move up from from 4th to 2nd or whatever.

But if Dan Snyder or Pete Carroll (true NFL gamblers and wildcards) try to jump from 8th to 2nd  or something like that and give up the farm and 3 years worth of 1st round picks mixed in with a couple 2nd rounders or something, yeah that's friggin stupid!

As long as the Miami Dolphins have been a franchise, they have taken THREE quarterbacks all-time in the first round.  One of which was Rick Norton who made Ryan Leaf look like a Hall of Famer, while the other 2 are actually in the Hall (I think you know who they are).


But lets paint another hypothetical here.  Lets say Miami has the 4th pick or lower.  Lets say the Redskins AND the Seahawks both make blockbuster deals to jump into the 2nd and 3rd picks.  This would take Luck, Jones, and Barkley off the board.  At that point, if I'm the GM, I keep the block-buster deals going,  I call up Green Bay.  I swap first round round picks with them, take a third, and Matt Flynn from them.  And I think everyone is happy.  Matt Flynn is a very talented QB wasting away in Green Bay behind Aaron Rodgers. Imagine if Green Bay (possibly coming off another win) had choice of house in the draft?  It's just crazy enough to work. 


Go ahead, criticize me, but that's what I would do.

If we start giving up high round picks or swapping out to the end of Rd 1 which is essentially the same,  for another teams backup (ala AJ Feeley) then this franchise is clearly the dumbest NFL franchise ever!

It's a very simple formula to win in the NFL these days, draft a QB in Rd 1 and build around him. Yes, the Saints did it another way with Brees. But aside from them you have to go back about a decade for a non home-grown QB to win a Super Bowl. And those teams (Ravens, Bucs, hell even Rams) had ALL TIME GREAT units (TB-Bal with immortal defense and Rams with a record breaking offense). So unless you plan on building a once in a lifetime unit on defense or offense (and even that was 10+ years ago), the only way that works in this day of age in the NFL is drafting a QB in Rd 1 and building around him. I don't know why some people think there is another way, because really in the NFL in this day of age....there isn't! It's a simple concept, just do it. It's not full proof, it might not work out....but what we have been doing hasn't worked out for a decade. Time to try it this way!!

I understand completely what you're saying and completely agree with you.  Did you realize how extremely hypothetical my scenario was?  The ONLY way I'm trading out of my pick is if Luck, Jones, and Barkley are already ALL off the board at the time of my selection. 

+3    I can't believe any dolphin fan would say they hope we lose against buffalo.
 Go Dolphins

Tubba no offense but I look at Flynn like I looked at Kevin Kolb.....People assume he is talented based on what little they have seen of him in a very good system. I was never sold on Kolb and look what AZ has given up for him. I killed management for that decision and it is looking a lot more like I was closer to being correct than they were. I know you were being hypothetical in a very watered down scenario but I would not want to throw money at anyone who is an unproven backup to be the future face of the franchise. Those are the kinds of moves that can kill franchises for long periods of time!!!!!

+4

I hear you dude.  Loud and clear.  I was a little reluctant typing it up as well.  PLUS.  Flynn is a free-agent this year and will most likely sign some outlandish deal somewhere else.  My whole theory was based off IF Luck, Jones, and Barkley are all gone at that point and trying to think of a QB on a roster who is a clearly a back-up but could start elsewhere.  Flynn popped into my head right off the bat.  I know trading down is the cliche, un-sexy, thing Miami does every year..but if those 3 QB's are all gone by the time they pick..what else is there?  (legit question btw..not a rhetorical)  Opinions?  Entertain me people LOL

^^^ Hey at least you are thinking some scenarios through......that is more than I can say for some of our draft picks over the last decade lol!!!!

Back when we were winless I used to tell myself that I hoped we lost every game and that I wouldn't watch another game (I have the NFL package). But low and behold the game starts, I start watching it, and can't bring myself to hoping that this this pathetic team loses...<sigh>     :'(

I know I can't speak for everyone, but I'm sure we've all be there.  To say "this team sucks"  or "they're not worth my time"  and threaten to boycott the games and all that jazz.  I even think I took it to a personal level of "picking a new team," after the Denver Debacle, which was more or less me just being REALLY pissed Miami blew that game..but for whatever reason, we tune in every Sunday, probably wearing some sort of Dolphins apparel, and cheer for the Dolphins when they score, and get pissed as hell when they turn the ball over or commit a penalty.  That's called being a fan.  I honestly can't bring myself to cheer for the opposition.  MAYBE I'll throw out a sarcastic "good"  when the other team scores after a turnover.  Kind of like a "serves you right" kind of thing, but then I'm right back to cheering for Miami to answer.  Maybe I'm stupid, maybe I'm wasting my time, I don't care.  Win, Loss, or Tie, Dolphins till I die!

After Week 11:

1.  Indianapolis 0 - 10
2.  Carolina 2 - 8
3.  St. Louis 2 - 8
4.  Minnesota 2 - 8
5.  Miami 3 - 7
6.  Jacksonville 3 - 7
7.  Arizona 3 - 7
8.  Washington 3 - 7


Too lazy to figure out the tie-breaks,  but Miami is drafting anywhere from 5th - 8th right now.  In case anyone is still wondering....

Bottom line is in that 5-8 range we would probably have to move up to get Barkley because a team like Wash, Seattle, or even Arizona might try and jump ahead of us to get him if they aren't ahead of us when it all ends. A few more dolphins wins and we can forget all together about Barkley, Jones, and Griff3 short of giving up the farm to get one.

Which means we will be stuck with Matt Moore battling it out in training camp with Jason Campbell when Oak cuts him or Vince Young or someone like that.

After Week 12:

1.  Indianapolis ( 0 - 11 ) SOS: .508
2.  St. Louis ( 2 - 9 ) SOS:  .529
3.  Minnesota ( 2 - 9 ) SOS:  .575
4.  Carolina ( 3- 8 ) SOS: .483
5.  Miami ( 3 - 8 ) SOS: .521
6.  Jacksonville ( 3 - 8 ) SOS: .538


It's scary that everyone around Miami has some value already at QB

It makes them all possible trade down candidates for teams that want to jump Miami to get a QB.

I have come to the conclusion, short of having pick #2,  if Miami wants a franchise QB they are going to have to bundle picks and move up. They can't risk staying pat. So whether we are picking 3rd or 9th, I think if Miami wants a QB they are gonna have to give up some value to move up and get a guy.

it does seem that way.  would be nice to see Miami trade up instead of down for once (other than getting Daniel Thomas)

Not sure if anyone still cares about this, but I'm here anyways

1.  Indianapolis ( 0 - 12 ) SOS: .535
2.  St. Louis ( 2 - 10 ) SOS: .556
3.  Minnesota ( 2 - 10 ) SOS: .569
4.  Jacksonville ( 3 - 9 ) SOS:  .549
5.  Washington ( 4 - 8 )  SOS:  .458
6.  Carolina ( 4 - 8 ) SOS:  .465
7.  Cleveland ( 4 - 8 ) SOS: .486
8.  Philadelphia ( 4 - 8 ) SOS:  .507
9.  Miami (4 - 8 )  SOS:   .521
10.  Tampa Bay (4 - 8 ) SOS:  .576

Wonderful....

Much appreciated.

Yikes. I didn't realize it was that bad.  :'(

Not necessarily bad, RG III could always be available, as well as Landry Jones if his draft stock continues to fall. 

This ended weeks ago. For Miami to draft a QB in Rd 1 they are gonna have to give up a bunch of picks and move up.

I don't know. Doesn't seem that bad to me. Quite a few Mock Drafts have Griffen ranked in the low teens, early twenties as an over prospect, and then again, I've seen a few that project Miami will take Riley Reiffthe offensive lineman from Iowa. It's still too early to get too caught up in this. There's quite a few BAD teams, and Indy and Jax still play eachother, Carolina, Minnesota, Philly, and maybe St Louis won't draft a QB, nor do I think they will mess with massive game day trades. Historically, there aren't that many trades on day one anyway. The preceived drop-off after Luck is so big, I just don't see anyone giving up multiple picks for anyone else- especially if the difference between 2A, 2B, and 2C is pretty minute. -EK 

Personally I'm hoping that Barkley falls low enough for us to get him. If he does and they pass on him, I'm gonna be really pissed....again.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/The-NFP-Mock-Ten.html

I'll be upset if they take another OL like EKnight is saying they might.  ;D

It's looking more and more like Barkley's stock is rising and Landry Jones's stock is falling.  I thought the whole time that Jones was the best QB not named Andrew Luck, so hopefully it could work out.  The point is, there's 4 QB's projected to go in the first round..Idc how they do, just get one of them

I really don't want Griffin. I don't think he is all that special and he is a total project on the NFL level.  The other 3 can start day 1, they will take their lumps but they are legit NFL QB's. Watching Griffin this year, nice college QB, nice skills, not sure he is an NFL QB at least right away.

It's a good thing Matt Moore signed a 2 year deal then  >:D

After Week 14:

1.  Indianapolis ( 0 - 13 ) SOS: .550
2.  St. Louis ( 2 - 11 ) SOS: .556
3.  Minnesota ( 2 - 11 ) SOS: .574
4.  Washington ( 4 - 9 ) SOS: .479
5.  Carolina ( 4 - 9 ) SOS: .479
6.  Cleveland ( 4 - 9 ) SOS: .497
7.  Miami ( 4- 9 ) SOS: .509
8.  Jacksonville ( 4 - 9 ) SOS: .533
9.  Tampa Bay ( 4 - 9) SOS: .550
10.  Kansas City ( 5 - 8 ) SOS: .479
11.  Philadelphia ( 5 - 8 ) SOS: .491
12.  Buffalo ( 5 - 8 ) SOS: .503

rest are 6 - 10 or better


....oh boy

Up a couple spots. Maybe those last 2 games (pats jets) can help us out sos-wise.

Not likely...both have winning records. 

Oh Lord, I had that bass ackwards. Is it Monday?

^^^ What's sad is that no, it isn't. Ha.

We gotta lose out and hope Washington wins at least 1. The Browns won't win again they got a killer schedule. Carolina is a live team and could win any week. But Washington is key, gotta have them win one.

But as I have said all along, if Miami wants a franchise QB they will most likely have to trade up, but it is easier to trade up the higher you are to begin with and have a better starting point  so.

After Week 15:

1.  Indianapolis ( 1 - 13 ) SOS: .541
2.  St. Louis ( 2 - 12 ) SOS: .566
3.  Minnesota ( 2 - 12 ) SOS: .587
4.  Cleveland ( 4 - 10 ) SOS: .495
5.  Jacksonville ( 4 - 10 ) SOS: .531
6.  Tampa Bay ( 4 - 10 ) SOS: .551
7.  Washington ( 5 - 9 ) SOS: .495
8.  Miami ( 5 - 9 ) SOS: .495
9.  Carolina ( 5 - 9 ) SOS: .500
10.  Buffalo ( 5 - 9 ) SOS: .500

Note:  picks 7 - 10 could be mixed up..I'm not sure what the tie-breakers are past SOS.  I assumed Washington would pick ahead of Miami since they lost to Miami.  Carolina/Buffalo?  No idea.  but yeah as of right now, Miami owns either the 7th or 8th pick

Browns are looking at Barkley if he comes out. Quick release and a perfect fit for Holmgren's west coast offensive style that Shurmur runs. Washington won't pass on Griffen. Landry Jones "might" fall in our lap if nobody jumps us for him. If we want any other QB  the Fins will have to move up if these other teams don't offer more to move up to ensure they get the guy they want.

St.Louis won't pass on the WR from Okie St Justin Blackmon. That team needs a WR in the worst way. The BEST trade down partner is Minnesota who has a young QB, stud RB, and Harvin at WR already. They might look to acquire picks. Give up next years #1, move to pick number three and take the QB we want not named Luck. Minny only drops 6 or 7 spots and picks up an extra first rounder. Miami could probably keep their 2nd rounder this year. Makes sense for all parties involved, unless Minny is so in love with a defensive player or an o-linemen. The ONLY other team I can see making that kind of jump is Washington. It makes no sense to give up that much if you aren't taking a QB (although Atlanta did it last year but that is rare). Cleveland has two first round picks this year but to jump 1 or 2 spots they wouldn't part with one this year or one next year I don't think.

Albert Breer on NFL Network just reported Landy Jones might stay at Oklahoma and lots of people close to him are telling him to do so instead of being the 4th QB taken in Rd 1. Be the first QB to go next year.

If so and if true, Miami is royally screwed and will have to mortgage everything to move up into the Top 5 most likely.

One more reason to forget the idea of drafting the "franchise" QB this year. This a perfect opportunity to address other issues.

QB is the only issue that matters. Trade up at all costs.

I'd have to agree with this, if a guy is available. I just think that if we had a solid QB we would have been in the playoffs this year.

Way to keep an open mind.

Yep, there's lots of talk around here about Landry staying at OU. And for that, I am thankful. LOL

Trade up only if you have to.  The perfect draft would have us get the quarterback we want in the first round and then trade down in all the other rounds and stockpile a shitload of picks. 

Just thought I would throw in the schedule for the teams were are competing with:

Buffalo: Denver & NE.  Probably lose both.
Carolina: Tampa and NO. Chance of beating Tampa.
Miami: NE and Jets. Might beat Jets, but not likely.
Washington: Min and Philly. Good chance of beating Min.
Tampa: Car and Atl. Chance of beating Carolina.
Jacksonville: Ten & Indy.  Probably beat Indy.
Cleveland: Bal and Pitt. Lose both.

It's possible that Jacksonville and/or Tampa Bay end up with an equal record to Miami. That could move Miami as high as 5th depending on strength of schedule.

Adam Schefter reported today that the "asking price" for a team to move up to #1 and get Luck will be in the range of  3 first round picks and 2 second round picks. Or 4 first round picks.

He said from talking to a few GM's around the league and how Luck grades out and how most think he will be as a player on the NFL level that is what it will take.

Right now it is looking

Washington   5   10   @ Philly
Miami           5   10   vs Jets
Tampa Bay   4   11   @ Atlanta
Cleveland           4   11   Vs Pitt
Jacksonville   4   11   Vs Indy

No chance of passing
Minnesota   3   12    Vs Chicago
Indianapolis   2   13   @ Jacksonsville
St. Louis           2   13   vs SF

Anyone know which teams don't have first-rounders next year?  Those teams are likely eliminated as trade partners.

By next year if you mean 2012.....
Cleveland has Atlanta's first rounder via the Julio Jones trade last year where Atlanta jumped way up to grab him.

Cincy has Oakland's first round pick.

IF any team has the amo to move up to grab Luck it really is the Browns. Give up 2 first rounders this year, a 1st rounder next year and sprinkle in some 2nd's and 3rd's over the course of this and the next couple years and I think it's very real. Holmgren knows the value of an elite QB. I really do think they are the team to make the big move.

For 2013 I think everyone owns their 1st round pick, but I am not 100% positive. But pretty sure though

and if Miami can't move up for Luck or RGIII, then move up and get Justin Blackmon. This guy is the real deal and possibly the next Calvin Johnson. If you can't get an elite QB, build up a super powerful offense and then go sign Jason Campbell or something and pray for the best with him for at least a year.

But under NO circumstances should Miami use another first round pick on an o-line. I mean at some point you have to look at other positions. If we draft another o-linemen its like when Matt Millen drafted WR after WR after WR year after year.

How is Jason Campbell any better than Matt Moore?

That's interesting.  If STL gets the #1 pick, you might as well start printing up Cleveland Browns Andrew Luck jerseys.  CIN and NE (the only other teams with two first rounders) will not be trading up for a QB.

Cleveland will wind up with two major stars in less than a decade.  Maybe they'll actually be able to keep him this time.

It isn't not battle of all stars but he is clearly a better player. I would rather roll with Campbell for 1 year than Moore.

LOL, well the Browns can franchise tag this one in time if needed and they can hold onto him forever! LOL