The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

You may remember that at the beginning of 2011, Ireland chose to cut one Lousaka Polite.  Some posters on this board assured us that this move was addition by subtraction.  I recently came across some data on this subject.

Football Outsiders has a stat called "Power Success," defined as the percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.

In 2009 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2009) (with Polite), MIA's Power Success was 79%, #2 in the NFL.
In 2010 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2010) (with Polite), MIA's Power Success was 83%, #1 in the NFL.
In 2011 (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2011) (after cutting Polite), MIA's Power Success was 46%... the worst team in the league.

I look forward to differing interpretations of these facts.

we also went from Ricky/Ronnie (two tough up the gut runners) to Bush/Thomas in that time frame. Which I think has MORE to do with it than Polite.

This team isn't missing out on wins because of Polite.

I noticed it yesterday when Lane failed to get 1 yard (actually he got it, but got a shitty spot that went unchallenged).

Not necessarily. Polite may not have been a game winning QB or kicker. But he was a drive sustainer. That leads to less 3 & outs, longer sustained drives, and ultimately more points. That does win you more games. Its one of those intangibles that I keep hearing about.

...except that in those power situations, it was Polite (and not R/R) that was getting the ball.

If immediately going from the best to the worst short-yardage running team in the league is not proof that cutting Polite was a bad idea, what else do you need?

It would be one thing if his production had actually dropped off.  But this is not New England and Ireland is not Belichick; he should not be cutting a bargain-basement player that's leading the league (in ANY stat) just because he thinks that player might be due for a decline.

Jeron Mastrud.  Philip Merling.  Jason Trusnik.  Austin Spitler.  Ryan Baker.  Julius Pruitt.  Any of these players should have been tossed to the curb before Polite.

I thought the Polite thing was pretty dumb. I didn't know the stats but I did know it went way down. Polite was almost a gimme for 1 yard.

Didn't be go like nearly two full seasons without missing a 3rd or 4th and 1? Big loss, IMO. -EK

Polite was terrible at everything else,  No biggy that he has moved on.

So is Lane.  He got that first down.  The refs gave him a horrible spot.  I called it in the game thread.

The fact that we dropped off has more to do with the fact that we decided in 2011 to install a spread offense, despite having only two decent recievers and our best offensive player once again was our running back.

Lane behind that offensive line will be gimme from a yard.  So cutting Polite and replacing him with Lane who is a better reciever isn't something I'd be in a hurry to shit on Ireland for. 

I'd be more upset at the fact that we have a secondary who couldn't cover the Golden Girls and that we have so many holes at WR before I'd get mad about Polite.

I would say that about wraps it up, lol BTW, those Golden Girls can be tricky. Did you know Betty White runs a 4.4 40?

For the record, Miami got more out of Lou than anyone else did.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lousaka_Polite

Which Miami RB made the Pro Bowl in 2011, again?  Because I can think of at least one other MIA offensive skill player that did.

In 2009 Miami's receiver corps was one of the least threatening in the league (not unlike now).  Combine that with their first-year-starter at QB, and their top-flight tandem of RBs, and they had one of the most lopsided offenses in the league.  Every team knew exactly what MIA was going to do on x-and-short, and yet the Dolphins were the second best in the league at doing it.  Adding Marshall to the offense in 2010 just made it better.

The installation of the spread offense has nothing to do with MIA's Power Success rate, because that rate is based on when MIA chose to run the ball.  Players that are extremely effective at short-yardage run plays do not instantly become less effective because your general offensive philosophy on other, different plays changed.

Bigdaddy stole my thunder...

IMO Polite was a 29 year old FB,one trick pony,and his one trick wasn't that good...Crying over spilled milk now 2 years ago  ::)

You're knit picking one stat that isn't telling the whole story about Lou Polite...

In hindsight,I feel Ireland and Sparano were Polites biggest fans,and the reason he made it to the final cut.In the run the ball and play good defense you bound to have a ton of 3rd and 1,3rd and short situations.Brian Daboll wanted throw the ball,west coast style,short passing game.I imagine Daboll,and the Special teams Coach (Bonemego,or Rizzi) probably really wanted Lex Hilliard over Polite...Hilliard was a good special teams guy....

He's done nothing since leaving the Dolphins...

Better link for Fins4ever
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PoliLo00.htm (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PoliLo00.htm)

You can say Polite sucks at everything else, and maybe you'd be right.  But when you have guys like Naanee on the roster that do NOTHING, why not have a Polite that gets you a yard when you really need it.

Unless you are making the argument that converting 3rd/4th and short is not really that important, the question "but what else can Polite do?" doesn't particularly matter.  He did one very important thing extremely well, and I just named off 6 players that did NOTHING particularly well.

If you have a player on your team that does absolutely nothing but tackle kickoff returners behind their 20 (and he's the best in the league at it, by a sizable margin), guess what?  This is a player worth keeping.

We had a player that was really good at returning kickoffs.  Possibly close to the best in the league.  Got rid of him too.  But didn't see anyone complain about that move...

Men you sure opened a can of worms. They will be coming out of the woodwork.

Are you talking about Ted Stone Hands Ginn?  You're right, no complaints out of me.

Really?  ??? Since you can't seem to figure out a calender....Polite was Cut September 3rd 2011..It's week 5 of the 2012 season...There's no way in hell I'm ever going to be able to explain the forest to you while you stare at a caterpillar sitting on a on leaf while standing in the middle of the forest...

(Dripping in Sarcasm)
I'm on the edge of my seat waiting for the thread you start in week 7 of the 2013 season whining about Brandon Marshall.I don't know how I'm going to live with my self in anticipation of your spilled milk thread just before we play the Patriots in 2014...
(Dripping in sarcasm)

Your argument of keeping a 29 year old FB,with little to no upside,on the 53 man roster in September 2011.Then keeping him active all 16 games,not dressing someone at a position that we might be thin at,just in case you have 3 or 4th down and short...Telling your brand new Offensive Coordinator,Head coach,and your first round draft pick center...I have zero faith in you guy's to get 1 yard,you can't come up with 10 different plays,with different players to get one single yard...Even though I have 2 other guy's that can play the EXACT SAME position,one I just drafted for the future,and one plays good special teams too..

Makes zero sense to me...That's it...If you can't see the bigger picture...Sorry..I'm done...

I thought Polite was a decent player, seem to recall hearing earlier this year about a TD he scored for Atlanta.

I complained about that.  Absolutely stupid to trade ginn for nothing.

The week before the Ginn trade:

Immediately after the trade:

Right after drafting Gates:
Emphasis has been added.

I was on the record as wanting to keep Ginn.  Furthermore, Ginn was nowhere remotely close to as good at his specialty as Polite was at his.  Polite led the league in short yardage conversion rate for what, two-three years in a row?  In three seasons, Ginn scored a total of three returns (2 KR, 1 PR), finished 3rd and 5th (and out of top 10) in KR yardage, and never made the top 10 in yards/KR.  Oh, and his first year he finished 9th in yards/PR.

Ginn won the Jets game with his 2 KR TDs, and that was a big deal, but he was never close to the best KR in the league; Hester had that on lockdown, and Cribbs was clearly better, too.  But to this day, I still think Ginn was worth keeping, because he can run safeties down the field and he takes KR off the table as a concern (you don't trade that away for a 5th, particularly when you use that 5th on Nolan Carroll and expect him to return kicks).

I said that it was a horrible idea right when Polite was cut!  Should I have went into the future to grab stats for how horrible Miami would become at short yardage runs after cutting Polite?

Yes, I think Polite (a known commodity until proven otherwise) would have been more useful than Jason Trusnik, who posted less than 4 tackles in 16 games.

Hey, guess what?  Your brand new offensive coordinator DOES NOT SIGN OR RELEASE PERSONNEL.  That is Jeff Ireland's job.

And guess what else?  Whatever Daboll/Sparano/Ireland thought about their ability to convert short-yardage runs without Polite was obviously wrong, because Miami was literally the worst team in the league at it!

More irrelevant hindsight posts....Again whining about something that happened prior to the 2011 season,Starting a thread to whine about it in 2012 furthers my point about spilled milk....

Your GM has to make tough decisions about the future,and can't worry about spilled milk...Also know as hindsight...

The only thing this thread proves is Spider-Dan continues to come here to argue for the sake of arguing....Go ahead,type till your fingers fall off...Blah, Blah,Blah

How is it "irrelevant hindsight posting" if:

- the GM makes a (bad) move
- I say "it's a bad move" right when he makes it
- a year later, I come back and present the evidence showing that it was a bad move

It's "hindsight" if I wait until after the results to criticize him.  I said it was a dumb decision right when it was made, and the team's immediate and dramatic decline in short-yardage run success proved me right.  The team went from first to worst in one season... what more can you ask for?

You're citing evidence which is situational. You're assuming that:
A) polite would have continued to be the best in the league
B) polite fit the mold of what the team wanted out of that position.

He might have been good at diving forward for a yard but they want a guy that can pick up blitzes, catch short passes, and perhaps, oh I don't know, block for the tailback.  Polite was a liability in these areas. So are you stating that you'd support carrying 2 fullback on the roster because no one else is capable of picking up one yard on a third and short?

A) Given that he was the best for two years straight, I presume that he would have continued to be the best until he showed otherwise
B) If reliably gaining first downs did not "fit the mold" of what the team "wanted out of that position" then they deserve every bit of criticism they have received

Do you have any statistical evidence to provide to show that Polite's replacement was superior in these areas?

Didn't MIA carry two "fullbacks" on the roster last year?  Aren't they carrying two again this year?  Or have we finally given up the pretense that Clay is a FB?

It would be one thing if Polite had a huge, multimillion dollar contract.  But he didn't.  So yes, I believe that someone else (I just named plenty of players) should have been cut instead of Polite.  If he's leading the league, you keep riding him until he stops.  It's not that complicated.

And again, I am curious as to what more proof any Polite naysayers want.  With Polite, we were 2nd and 1st in power success (and he was leading the league).  We cut him and immediately fall to DEAD LAST.  Is that just an amazing coicidence?

Its not a ringing endorsement for Polite either, unless you can provide all other things being equal, including o-line, (center and both guards, at minimum), OC and head coach.  I am certain that NOT all of these things are the same.

Well, if you want to argue that changes in the OL were the cause, we can detail the 2010 OL vs. the 2011 OL.  And if you want to argue about Henning vs. Daboll, that's fine too.  But it bears mentioning that it was Ireland+Sparano in charge for both 2010 and 2011.

It seems to me that for those who argued against Polite's release, this is basically all that we could ask for as evidence to support our position.  The team was the best at converting short yardage with him, and the worst without him.

To be fair, whether you like or dislike both Polite and Ginn, or if you like one and not the other, you must realize that they are different situations that don't compare well in this instance.

Ginn was a very high draft pick.  The expectations for that position and his salary requirements didn't make sense.  The argument for Polite is a different one.

^^ I agree, and mentioned Ginn as a counter-example of hyperbole.  Spider's comment was that if you have 1 guy who's really good at even only 1 thing, he's worth keeping.  My counter example was Ted Ginn was really good at precisely 1 thing, and was NOT worth keeping.

That's where the comparison ends, though.

Personally I thought Ginn was worth keeping and the Dolphins traded him away for too little.  But that was mistake #2.  A guy that is ONLY a great PR/KR is not worth a first round pick. 

Thank you Hoodie. You nailed it. Ginn shoould have NEVER been an overall 9 pick. Not his fault. However, because he was unable to live up to the pick, he was considered a bust. I follow Ohio State somewhat (born a Buckeye) and the knock on Ted was he was not a good route runner. He got away with it in college, but not here.

Worth the pick or not, he's on your team.  You don't get rid of a guy because he was a high pick 4 years ago, unless his salary makes it prohibitive.  If he has a skill, you utilize it because he's on your roster.

Ginn's problem was he was the last one to show up to practice. First one to leave. And he fell asleep through alot of team meetings it came out after he left.

They couldn't keep him around because his teammates didn't respect a high paid guy like that and his behavior. He wasn't liked by many of his teammates in Miami .

He also was scared of getting hit.