The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

7th overall, 5th against the run, 8th against the pass.  Apparently the Dolphins have been doing better against the pass than many of us give them credit for.

There's an article on the Dolphins on ESPN.com, but it's behind a paywall.  I'll quote the relevant part:

"When Football Outsiders' team efficiency rankings are released Tuesday, the Dolphins will be in 10th place, the fourth-best team in the AFC. The strength of the team is a defense that ranks seventh overall, eighth against the pass and fifth against the run. A look at FO's front seven tables shows that Miami is faring well in several of our unique statistics -- sixth in Adjusted Line Yards, fourth in Power situations, and first overall in Second-Level Yards.

That last number shows how the linebackers are the real strength of this unit. Second-Level Yards measures yards gained five to 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Miami's elite ranking here shows that when opposing running backs make it past the defensive line, they very rarely get far into the defensive backfield. (You can find more information on these metrics here.)

Miami's pass-defense statistics are not nearly as dominant as its rushing numbers, but it doesn't have any glaring weaknesses, either. It is essentially in the middle of the pack in Adjusted Sack Rate, as well as in coverage against opposing first and second wideouts, tight ends and running backs. However, it is sixth against all other wide receivers, which shows both secondary depth and solid fundamental team play."

And yet we have 2 years of evidence saying that the pass defense shouldn't be trusted with the game on the line in the 4th quarter.

This evaluation isn't over the last two years.  It's for this year.

And had the kicker done his job, the 4th quarter pass defense would have been good enough for 6-1.

what does the last 2 years have to do with anything? Just give them credit for improving!

It's not even the same unit with guys like Vontae, Bell, Allen and such GONE!!! The dead weight is gone and we have better players in our secondary now. And one guy who has improved a ton is Nolan Carroll.

Truth dat

Some of our fans feel our DBs and offensive linemen should grade out 100% and are a bit unrealistic, to say the least. It's never happened in the history of football but if anyone misses a block or if a DB doesn't defend a pass they are called out for being complete garbage.

Looks like the Davis trade may have been positive afterall. Another thing the members jumped on a bit quickly (even with his terrible camp).

I'm with Spider here, I think Miami has done a much better job of bending without breaking in pass defense the last couple of games. The Jets were getting yards in the second half, but they didn't score many points and that's all that matters. All drives don't have to have be 3 and outs as long as you hold them to field goals and punts rather than TD's.

Cool to see,even it's on "paper",and still early... .IMO the best part of this is ....It's essentially the same players as last year (Addition by subtraction No Vontae,No Bell),better coaching,system fits better maybe...

And if the Cardinals' kicker did his job it would be 5-2.

I think you mean the Rams' kicker, as ARI's kicker made every kick he tried.

On a side note, I actually went back and looked at the play-by-play for the ARI game (it wasn't broadcast here).  Carpenter's lone miss was at the start of the 3rd quarter.  Why are people blaming a loss on a missed FG at the start of the second half?  That's like saying if Miami had made a 2-pt conversion instead of kicking an XP in the 2nd quarter, the Dolphins would have won by 1 instead of going to OT.

I understand the numbers are from this year, but this is a team that showed last season that it loved to let teams score in the 4th.  Even though the coaching staff has changed, most of the personnel hasn't, and it's still a defense that allows scores in the waning minutes of games.  This defense let both the Cards and Jets back in the game with long drives for scores and eventual victories with shoddy 4th quarter and OT play.  To their credit, they didn't allow the Rams or the Bengals to come back on them to win.  But then again, if the Zuerlein hits his kicks, the Dolphins would have lost the Ram game.  We were lucky to escape with a win on that one.

I don't understand the 6-1 if not for the kicker claim, though.  I can see blaming Carpenter for missing the 48 yarder in OT of the 1st Jet game, but then again, this vaunted defense did allow the Jets to march right down the field to take the lead in the 4th and again in OT after the miss.  The blame for that loss falls on both Carpenter and the defense.  

Saying Carpenter is responsible for the Cardinal loss doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  Had he made his 51 yarder at the very beginning of the 3rd quarter, what makes people think the defense wouldn't have just given up more points when the opposition needed them?  Had Miami been up by 10 instead of 7, it's quite likely it would have affected play calling and the urgency of the Cards.  Who's to say they wouldn't have just scored more points against a defense that has shown its propensity to be scored on late in games.  There was an entire half of football to play (and OT), and saying the loss was all on the kicker and not the and multiple turnovers or bad 4th quarter/OT defense is rather absurd.

I'm glad to see the stats indicating improvement, and I hope it's a sign of good things to come.  But based on the first half of this season, I'm very nervous come the 4th quarter because they've shown they can and will allow teams to score points and/or come back to win regardless of how well they played in the previous 3 quarters...you know, a lot like last season.

Exactly.

Huh?  Miami switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3 (which is a significant change to personnel on the field) and half of the starting defensive backfield from last year (Davis, Bell) are on different teams, in addition to the nickel corner (W. Allen).  Those are pretty big changes, and that's before you get to "new head coach" and "new DC."

The problem with Miami's pass defense is that it doesn't do well against teams with viable TE's.  If you can solve that problem you're all set.  Games we lose or give up shitloads of passing yards the other team has a TE who is above average.   Teams we beat don't have that good a TE so the defense pretty well has a lock on them. 

Our pass defense is also helped tremendously by the fact that we have one of the best pass rushes in the league.

Restated for emphasis:

"[Miami's pass defense] is essentially in the middle of the pack in Adjusted Sack Rate, as well as in coverage against opposing first and second wideouts, tight ends and running backs. However, it is sixth against all other wide receivers, which shows both secondary depth and solid fundamental team play."

^^^ I don't get it, Spider.

How can we in the middle of the pack in "adjusted sack rate" (I've been around football in one form or another for 25 years and never heard of such a thing), middle of the pack against opposing first and second wideouts, tight ends and running backs (essentially everybody who catches the ball) but 6th against all other wide recievers?

Do you have a link so I can read that?

The stats are from Footballoutsiders.com. They have explanations aplenty. The relevant ones to this discussion are "defensive" and "defensive line".

Sacks: Looking at the total number of sacks isn't particularly relevant, since it doesn't take into account how many opportunities there have been to actually get sacks. That's why we all talk about a quarterbacks completion percentage, not his total number of completed passes. Since you don't get sacks (by definition) on running plays, the "sack ratio" is the ratio of total sacks to pass plays seen by the defense. What FootballOutsiders do is then adjust that by the down, distance and opponent to better enable comparisons between teams. (Technically, their "adjusted sack ratio" is a better predictor of sacks against an opponent than just "sack ratio" -- which is still much better than just using the total number of sacks).

Considering that some teams see more than twice the number of drop-backs as other teams, at the very least we need to look at sack ratio (like completion percentage for QBs) to make any meaningful comparison.

Pass defense: Instead of just looking at the total number of yards a defensive gives up, it can be interesting to look at how many yards have come against the type of receiver. Is it the other teams #1 reciever all the time, suggesting a lack of a #1 cornerback (or scheme to provide support) -- or is it, as has been the case with Miami for the past many years, the TE who inflicts the damage? Footballoutsiders.com take each individual play and assign the pass to either the #1 receiver, the #2 receiver, a TE, a RB, or "other".

As with sacks, it often makes more sense to adjust the yardage for the total number of passing downs (just like we often look at yards/attempt for running backs). Footballoutsiders.com then takes this a step further and adjusts for opponent, down and distance. E.g. it's a lot worse to give up 10 yards on a 1st and 10, than on a 3rd and 15.

Even though we're ranked 8th in total pass defense, the teams are actually clustered quite tightly around the middle of the pack, so the difference between us and "average" is quite small. Our rushing D, on the other hand, is A LOT better than average -- and actually fairly close to #1 (we're ranked 5th).

This will be a fun thread after today's game.

I can see them dropping out of the top ten in just the first half. Lol. :(

I don't give a crap about what Football Outsiders ranks them. Four different QBs have passed for 300+ yards against them in 7 games, and a rookie is about to go 450 on them. Please. No more talk of this. -EK

After today's game, they should drop out of the top HALF

You guys realize that Miami's defense rank is relative to other teams, right?

ARI also allowed a rookie to pass for 400+ yards (in fact, for a whopping TWO YARDS less than what Luck just did against MIA).  We had two QBs break a 25+ year old passing yardage record in the same season last year.  300 yards is not the achievement it once was... there have been five 400+ yard passing games so far this year (Brees, Freeman, Luck, Romo, Tannehill, plus a 395 from Brady) and one 500+ yard passing game (Eli).

You can talk all you want about how bad Miami's pass defense is, but that's nearly everyone.