The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

What do you all think?

I think it's slim because they have an insane schedule and the rest of the abc is really good

Too early to tell its only Oct 6th. Schedule gets a lot easier from here on out.  TB, 2 vs Bills, 2 vs Jets, Panthers (who gave up 7 sacks today and Newton with 3 INT's and a lost fumble).....Miami can hopefully win some easy games vs lesser teams even with a poor o-line. The first 5 games were killer vs playoff level teams each week. Thankfully that's over now. Some easier weeks ahead.  New England is the best team they got left and of course they play them twice.

Miami will hang around I think and be in the thick of the wild card race and if they can beat NE at least once hopefully have an outside chance in the division. Pats have the Saints next week so hopefully they will lose again but ya never know.

I disagree.  I was counting this Ravens game as a loss, but I think the rest of the schedule is a turd.  We're through the hard part.  Jets and buffalo twice + Pitt + Tampa + Carolina gets you to 10 wins, plus the Pats, SD, and Cincy aren't world beaters. 

Maybe a little better hope since before the season started, but still only a 10 win season at best.  Divisional games are always tough, even if the opponent sucks.

Playoffs? Are we talking playoffs?

I think going into the season most people were going to judge it off of the growth of Tannehill. After a surprisingly successful start people started talking division winner and Super bowl contender (speaking generally of fans). 

The truth is we are much better than last year and should be even better next year with hopeful upgrades to the O-line and DBs as well as adding some depth. 

Well said.  I think the last 2 games have shown some growing pains for this team.  Had some key injuries yesterday and it showed up in the 2nd half.  Wake (1 series) and Ellerbe (out 2nd half) are huge playmakers and were missed.  The opposing offense is definitely aware of Wake when he's in the game. When he's not, out pass rush is not as effective.

The OL has to be upgraded either with the draft or FA next year.  Maybe during the BYE week , they either make a trade (doubtful) or mix up the lineup to make some improvements.  Looking back, getting Branden Albert was prob the right move and we didn't make it. 

Yesterday's game was frustrating cause it seemed we gained some mo' before HT with the 13-6 lead and then the Refs gave it back with some really bad PI calls that really calls into question whether these guys know what a PI really is.  The game is moving at a break neck pace and we got 50-60 yr old guys running down the field trying to analyze a split-sec play.

3-2 is not a bad start, but we're greedy as Phins fan and would ahve liked to be 4-1 heading into the break.  If the extra week off can get some guys healthy and we can come out and rip off 3 or 4 wins over the next month, that will be great.

Have to wait and see what moves they make during the break, not only with the OL, but also with some of the play-calling.  Got away from the run yesterday as well, whcih made us one-dimensional, not a strong suit for MIA.

Go Phins

I agree with this perspective.  The trouble is, ten wins won't necessarily get you to the playoffs.

^ True.

However, when looking at our chances, I'm counting 10 wins without having to beat anyone who is better than you.  And you have 2 chances against NE, one against SD, and one against Cincy to get to 11 (or make up a bad week.)

It's a pretty good place to be in.

I don't believe Miami gets 4 wins from the Jets and Bills. They both have strong pass rushes. Miami has a paper mâché O line. I think if you're counting those as wins, that's a mistake. -EK

And you can take it to the bank that Rex is going to blitz like crazy, after he sees the tape on your oline.  If the Fins don't fix that in hurry, you can stop worrying about the playoffs cause Tanny  will be on ir

Every team will blitz from here on out, not just the Jets/Rex. I mean the first Jets game isnt till Dec 1st I think our fate whether we have a realistic shot at the playoffs will be long decided by then

The Jets problem is can their offense score vs our defense and the answer is no, which makes those 2 games winnable/easy for Miami. Bills with the same problem. Jeff Tuel at QB vs the Fins defense in 2 weeks....I like the Fins chances of winning. I don't care how bad our o-line is!!

Well you can chalk up the 12/22 game @ the Bills as a loss, since I'm going to that game.  The Fins always lose @ Buffalo when I go to that game.

I'm going on record as saying that I don't believe, necessarily, that Miami can't go 4-0 across those games, but it's foolish to look at teams that match up favorably with the Dolphins biggest weakness and chalk up four wins. Even when the Pats were clearly a much better team than Miami in years past, I seem to recall Miami playing them tough and winning games they probably shouldn't have because NE specifically matched up poorly with Miami- and oddly enough it was pass rush again. -EK

If EJ Manuel is playing Buffalo will play Miami tough. If he is out for the season and doesn't return Miami will beat Buffalo and the combo of Jeff Tuel/Pat White

EK, I get what you're saying.  I'm not counting those as guaranteed wins.  But, just as I'm counting both Pats games as losses, I'm counting both Bills games as wins.  I think we're a better team than the Bills and should win those games -- of course I could be wrong and "any given Sunday" and all that.  ...but from what we know, I feel we're a better team than both the Bills and Jets.

If we win the easy ones and lose the hard ones, I think we finish with 10 wins.

So, after last night, did the Dolphins beat a really bad Atlanta team, or are the Jets better than people thought? -EK

^^ I'm curious if you watched last night's game (Jets/Falcons) and have changed your opinion at all...

The Jets so called "great defense" didn't look so great. Not buying into the Jets yet. Lucky win vs TB. Had 20 penalties vs a bad Bills team and won, fluke. Beat Atlanta (decent win). They still suck!

I still don't think the Jets are a better team than we are.  I feel like we're being a little reactionary.  It was a bad weekend for us in many ways.  We'll see.

Jets have gotten TB, Buffalo, Tenn early on this season.....either bad/awful or average teams at best. Miami has played New Orleans, Baltimore, Indy....top tier level teams.

Let's see how the Jets fair when they line up vs the Saints, Ravens,...etc. And I think Miami will be just fine when they eventually get the Bills and Tampa ..etc

So when Miami beat Atlanta it was a quality win over an NFC title contender from the pervious year. When the Jets beat them, it's either luck or an unimpressive victory? -EK

Nobody said that. It was a decent win for the Jets last night. Everyone here stated that.

Overall I still think they suck, but last night was a good win for them

Please stop trying to stir the pot.

More like it diminishes the quality of the Dolphins win.  Seriously, Atlanta is playing like they never left that NFC title game.  I wonder what gives?

Wasn't trying to stir anything. It was a valid and legitimate question. When I pointed out that Miami hadn't beaten anyone with a winning record, several people mentioned Atlanta as a quality win. That's fine, but you can't have it both ways- either it wasn't a quality win and the Jets stink, or it was and the Jets are better than people give them credit for.

Landshark- thank you for addressing my question. I agree- for the talent they have, they should be much better. -EK

Indy and Cleveland have winning records

What were their records when Miami beat them? Exactly. -EK

CLEVELAND WAS WEEK 1!!!!!!!! they were 0-0, nobody had played a game yet!!!!! This is beyond silly, really you outdid yourself this time!! Seriously!!

Indy was 1-0 when Miami beat them!!

I stand corrected about Indy. You're correct.

Neither Cleveland nor Atlanta were above .500 for weeks after Miami played them. Obviously Atlanta still isn't. My greater point is that Miami has played 3 teams that look like playoff caliber opponents, and they're 1-2 in those games. They're the worst team since Carr's Texans team at protecting the QB, and their remaining schedule is still heavy with teams that have strong pass rushes. This isn't an "any given Sunday" thing, it's a legitimate match-up issue. Miami can't run the ball, they can't protect the QB, and the play-calling is horrible. There's not enough talent on the field to overcome that when they are facing NE twice, and teams that you clearly don't realize are much better defensively than you're giving them credit for.  Teams like Pittsburgh, Carolina, Buffalo, the Jets, and even TB struggle offensively, but either get after the QB very well or have overall defenses that will force Miami to run- which they've been anemic at. Go look at the stats- I'm not making this up. If you can't run on Pitt, Car, or Tampa, you're in for a long afternoon trying to throw it. At 3-2 with the schedule ahead, I don't see 10 wins at all, let alone a "gimme." -EK

Miami played Atlanta week 3, they were 1-1 going into that game. They were thought to be a good team off to a mediocre start.  Now, two more weeks later, they are 1-4 and they are being exposed as a bad team, or perhaps a good team with some serious problems and underperforming.

Things change over the course of three weeks.  If your point is to say that, now, the Atlanta win looks less impressive, I'd agree with you.  But you're doing it in a way to say that people are double-talking, which is ridiculous.

That wasn't my intention. My point is in the previous post: At 3-2 with the schedule ahead, I don't see 10 wins at all, let alone a "gimme." -EK

I think that we are improved from last year. We still have glaring problems. The 3-0 start was kind of an illusion. Although a win is a win. We kind of scraped by in them. The longer the season goes, the more we will be exposed as a mediocre team.

At the start of the year, if someone said that MIA would be 3-2 with wins against 4-1/3-2/1-4 teams, and losses against 5-0/3-2 teams, most reasonable MIA fans would have said that's a good start for a playoff run (given the rest of the schedule).

Does it really matter if the standings looked like this:

ATL 4-1
IND 3-2
CLE 1-4

or like this?

ATL 1-4
IND 4-1
CLE 3-2

If anything, this just shows that the Dolphins played better on the road than expected.

That's the way I see it. The first 5 opponents were killer. And Miami survived them. Cleveland is showing they were no pushover and that might end up looking like a damn good win when all is said and done. Indy looks like a "great" win since they have now beaten Seattle and SF. Atlanta is hurting but beating Matt Ryan with Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez is still a decent win at the end of the day. And there is no shame in losing AT the Saints (few teams win there when they are at full strength) and losing to the defending champs hey not a horrible loss. It sucks, but not a horrible loss.

Now its time to beat up on some garbage teams. If the Fins do it, great that's what they are supposed to do. If they can't and lose a bunch...then we got issues!

Update:

It will be a battle for the second wild card spot

The teams in the battle are:

Ravens
Dolphins
Jets
Titans
Browns

Miami loses the wildcard tiebreaker with the Ravens, but gets it for the Browns, however, if more than two teams tie, this is meaningless

^^ As long as Weeden and Smith are the QB's for the Browns and Jets you can knock them out of this conversation both are beyond horrible. And if Fitzpatrick has to play an extended period of time for the Titans knock them off too.

It will be a battle between Ravens, Fins, and maybe Houston can rise from the dead but who knows.

Why has no one mentioned the Chiefs in the WC conversation? -EK

I'm assuming he said second WC because he locked KC in at the first WC.

^^^^

Correct

do you type that -EK after each post or does it do it automatically


I think Miami cannot make the playoffs this year unless they sweep Buffalo

So, are you a Chiefs fan this year?

ROFL!!!!!

Ah, OK that makes sense.

El Diablo- no, not a Chiefs' fan, but when one of the members of the board calls them a "fraud" at 6-0, it was a legitimate question. Their defense is- at least at this point- top 5 in the league if not better, and it seemed that they were being overlooked. -EK

Ten years ago, KC was riding high at 9-0, en route to a #1 seed.  They were promptly bounced from the playoffs in their first game.

On a related note, guess who's leading the leading in turnover ratio?  Why, Kansas City (http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/league/afc), of course.

Guess who led in that stat last year?  New England. (http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/year/2012/league/afc)
2011? San Francisco. (http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/year/2011/league/nfc)
2010? New England (http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/year/2010/league/afc), again.
2009? Green Bay (http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake/year/2009/league/nfc).

Average number of playoff games won by those four teams?  0.5.

See, when you win games because you're getting more turnovers than your opponents, when you get to the playoffs and have to play against teams that won't beat themselves for you, you tend to have problems.

KC is winning through a combination of luck, smoke, and mirrors.

Unless any of those teams actually MISSED the playoffs, then they're not a fraud- especially since they will take one of the playoff spots Miami is trying to have. -EK

This thread is not discussion if KC will win the SB, but if Miami is going to make the playoffs.  While KC is a long shot to win the SB, or for that matter their own division, they are well on their way to securing one of the 6 AFC playoff spots, which makes it harder for Miami to secure one. 

Making the playoffs as a Wild Card and losing your first game is not any sort of accomplishment.  Hell, when Miami won the division in 2008 (while leading the league in turnover ratio, natch) and promptly got bounced, the only real sense of accomplishment I sensed was a) worst to first! and b) F the Pats.

So to summarize, KC is a fraud and will do nothing of consequence whether they make the playoffs or not.  If their fraudulent run keeps Miami from making the playoffs as a wild card, then so be it; Miami should be worried less about the actions of a team they won't play and more about their remaining games against New England and Cincinnati.

^^^ Even assuming that your crystal ball is perfectly calibrated (unlikely), rather than you just making a wild-ass guess with conviction (more likely), I'd say that going from 2-14 one season to making the playoffs the next season would be considered an accomplishment.

Something very similar seemed to be the general consensus around these parts in 2008.

^^^ Too generic for me... Are you talking about the Chiefs, Spidey, me or someone/something else entirely with this vague reference?

He's comparing the 2012/2013 Chiefs to the 2007/2008 Dolphins in terms of achievements

He's talking about the 2008 Dolphins, who actually won their division (a feat which KC looks unlikely to mirror).

And I find it rather bizarre that you feel the need to repeatedly point out that predictions of the future (but apparently only mine, or something) are not guaranteed.  Thanks for the insight!  Hopefully, you have successfully assuaged any despairing Chiefs fan who read my internet forum post and thought their season was over.

Put down the cross, Spidey...I slap most people who seem convinced that they can see the future. You aren't special in that regard, just usually a little more long-winded about it.

Take a look at us.  If I'm not mistaken, if the playoffs started today, we'd make it in the 6 spot.  And this is after we've been through the toughest part of the schedule. 

I think that, if you're being honest, you would pick the Dolphins to make the playoffs.  I think that the odds are better than 50/50.

Yes. 


Not so sure of this.

You still have the Pat (5-1) (x2), Bengals (4-2), and several games against 3-3 teams.  And I wouldn't look past the Steelers despite their 1-4 record.


I would put it at about 50/50.

I'd put our chance of getting in with a 10-6 record at 50/50 the way things look right now.

And I don't think we're more than 50/50 to reach 10 wins.

This. I still think Miami finishes below .500 for the year. Last year at 4-3 you guys were having the same discussion and they shit the bed against the Colts, Titans, and Bills, and never recovered. -EK

Unless people thought the Dolphins were going 14-2 or better this year....what Dave wrote is 100% correct. There is no shame in losing AT the Saints or to the defending champs in a tight game. Especially for a team still rebuilding like Miami. It's not like they lost to garbage teams!!

The schedule gets easier. The Jets (x2), Bills (x2), Tampa, Carolina, and Pitt aren't world beaters, in fact those are some really bad teams. That doesn't mean Miami will run the table in those games, they will probably lose 1 or 2 in that bunch, hey any given Sunday right. Maybe Miami even get swept by the Pats too, who knows. But this gloom and doom is crazy after 2 loses to quality opponents. The tough part of the schedule is behind the Fins. That is a fact! No denying that. The Fins will be ok and will push 9 or 10 wins unless there are a rash of injuries or they totally implode. Which I don't see them imploding.

I see 10 wins.  I think that's the most realistic expectation at this point.  But, you can steal a win against either Pats or San Diego or Cincy, you can get to 11.  Just as easily, you can drop a game against one of the poorer teams, of course.

I won't call this a must win game, because there are many games left,...but this is a need to win game.  Home game for Miami, Buffalo short on QB's, and the Pats up next, a playoff team needs to win games like these.

Miami   31

Buffalo 17

I'm sticking with my 8-8 preseason call. Hope I'm wrong though...

Sorry, but the Chargers and Bengals (both home games) are "should win" games in my mind.  Neither team is lighting the world on fire, and the homefield will push it to our advantage.  I don't think they lose either of those games.

The bigger challenges will be Patriots (2x), @NYJ and @Steelers.  None of those are gimme games.  I also see 10 wins, but the ones you gotta steal are one of those four (@ Jets or Pats at home seem most likely).

And, oh yeah, not choke off any of the other games you're counting as wins.

Here's the way things stand as of now for the second wild card

Jets 4-3
Chargers 4-3
Dolphins 3-3
Bills 3-4
Ravens 3-4
Browns 3-4
Steelers 3-4
Titans 3-4

This team's playoff hopes are not over by a long shot

While not OVER, I consider this team done.  I know it's only one game, but Buffalo at home was a game you needed to win to get to your needed win total.  It's unlikely that we'll make it up against harder teams.

I stand by this. I think 10-6 is never going to happen. Miami now has 7 remaining games against teams .500 or better, and they couldn't beat a team that was 2-4 at home. -EK

The Dolphins would need to win minimum 10 games to make the playoffs and that's only if they own tiebreakers.  You probably need 11 to qualify in this AFC.

That means they need to go through the next 10 weeks only losing three games.  And two of those are against New England.

If they can steal one against the Pats, it gets easier.  But given the strength of schedule and considering the recent o-line play, I don't see how they can put together 7 of 10 wins. 

So, to me, the only way to the playoffs is if New England falters and you beat them (and the Jets) twice each, and win the AFC East.

Playoffs are pretty much out of the question, unless they can petition the league to move to the NFC real quick.

But they did beat Indy (a team Den, Seattle, and SF lost too) on the road...your point?

Any given Sunday that's why they play the games!

They have ONE quality win - Indy.

They beat two crappy teams -- Falcons and Browns

They lost to two crappy teams -- Bills & Ravens.

They lost to one good team - Saints.

That ain't solid. 

Only 6 games played of a 16 game season They didn't make the schedule. And I wouldn't call the Ravens "crappy". This is a conversation you have after Week 17...not before Week 8 games!!!

By this same logic the Pats have 1 quality win too (Saints). So we are on par with the top in in our division when it comes to "quality wins"

I disagree that the Falcons, Browns, Bills and Ravens are all crappy teams. None of them are elite teams but probably only the Bills was a game that Miami SHOULD have won. That being said, no they aren't a solid team, they are a young team still finding their way, but losses to crappy teams can happen to even solid teams, this passed weeks NE/NYJ game is proof of that.

But they haven't lost half the games they played against teams with a .500 record or worse. 

splitting hairs since only 6 games have been played by the Fins (7 for NE). Far too early for this type of analysis. Too much of the season still to go

Discussing "quality wins" at all is nonsense. NFL = BCS. Strength of schedule is in no way a predictor of winning the Superbowl or even making the playoffs. The 2002 Bucs, 2006 Colts, and 2007 Giants were in the bottom third of the league in strength of schedule. How many "quality wins" did they have? On the other side, the 2003 and 2004 Pats were in the top 10 in the league in strength of schedule. How many "quality wins" did the Pats have? There is no correlation between "quality wins" and whether a team is going to go deep into the playoffs.  -EK

I agree.  Short of Jacksonville and maybe Tampa, all teams in the NFL are in the same talent level, more or less.  Any week is lose-able and going (especially on the road) to beat a team is worth something.

IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING POST IN THE SAME THREAD:

Strength of schedule is irrelevant, except when it's not!

Spider, do you ever read things at face value, or do you always put your spin on them and reach to interpret things that aren't there? At no point in that post did I say ANYTHING about using strength of schedule to predict playoff chances. I also didn't mention ANYTHING about "quality wins." You're stretching to find something that isn't there simply for the sake of being disputatious.

Interesting that Dave agreed with me, and yet you had nothing in repsonse to his post. In fact, several people have disagreed with your stance in the Chiefs thread, and you seem to only want to argue with me in that one as well. News flash- just because you personally have a petty grievance with the person saying something, does not invalidate what is being said. -EK

^^^You are implying that since Miami lost to a 2-4 team they can't beat any of the 7 teams left on their schedule that are currently .500 or better. Hence putting value in "strength of schedule". Spider is right

Oh, look, MikeO is trolling me in another thread. I am actually not implying that they can't beat those teams. I'm flat out stating that they will not beat all of them, and that the "hardest" part of their schedule is not behind them as some of you have stated. There is no "easy" portion to their schedule this year. It is pretty well balanced with teams that are going to give them problems throughout the season, which I mentioned more than once in this thread. -EK

Only one troll in this village...you! My last post wasn't an attack on you personally, just your opinion/stance on a subject.

You say strength of schedule is silly in one breath then in another you use it to prop up an opinion. So either strength of schedule matters or it doesn't. You are saying one thing then using it as an example as another. That's all Spider is pointing out and I am agreeing with.

Where did I use it to prop anything? You're reading something that isn't there. Let me spell it out for you:

1. There's no such thing as quality wins in the NFL. This isn't the BCS. At year's end, a win is a win and it's your record that gets you in the playoffs.

2. Throughout the early portion of this thread, several people mentioned that the "hard" part of Miami's schedule was done and the "easy" part was now ahead. 7 games against .500 or better is not "easy," especially if you struggle against 2-4.

There's no mention of strength of schedule there to validate one point or another. Read whatever else you want into it as you always do, but you'll be reading something not there. -EK

Specifically, you state that:

1) the record of a team that Miami lost to is relevant
2) the records of the upcoming teams on Miami's schedule is relevant

That is the definition of a "strength of schedule" argument.

You later claim that "a win is a win," but if so, then isn't a loss a loss?  So why are you bringing up BUF's record?

OK, everyone has made their points, here.  I think it's time to move on...