The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

At this point there is really two interesting questions -- the 1 seed and the 6 seed.

1 seed - winner of AFCW KC/Denver.
AFCE - NEP
AFCN - Bengals
AFCS - Colts.
5 seed - loser of KC/Denver.

Where 2/3/4 will shake out?....it is too early to tell, but I am ready to call them the division winners. 

The 6 seed is still wide open:
   
Chargers 4-3
Jets 4-4
Dolphins 3-4
Titans 3-4
Ravens 3-4
Raiders 3-4   

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, only 10.6 percent of teams since the NFL expanded to 16 games in 1978 made the playoffs after a four-game losing streak. The odds are reduced to 1.7 percent for teams that have a five-game losing streak during the regular season.
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=miami-dolphins&id=2402&src=desktop

Miami loses Thursday and they're done is what I'm reading from the above. -EK

On a just=barely-related statistical note, I have made fantasy football playoffs after both an 0-5 and 0-6 start before. The 0-5 start squad actually won the title that season, while the 0-6 got bounced in the first round.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau how often is the 6th place team in the conference after 7 weeks at 4-3?

In most years I would say 3-4 means you are out of the race, but this year maybe not. 

I think at least one team that starts 3-4 makes the playoffs pretty regularly. The Bengals did last year. The Colts did the year they won the Super Bowl. I believe Tennessee did a few years back as well. Those are just off the top of my head. I would actually argue that this year 3-4 is harder to get in because of the parity. Most years you have more teams that are far out in front and only a couple of teams fighting for that last playoff spot. This year, there's a half dozen teams fighting for one slot. -EK

The Colts did not start 3-4 the year they won the Super Bowl.  They started 7-0.

I don't think Miami can make the playoff this year simply because the schedule is just so difficult

Nothing to do with the schedule. It's the fact their o-line is a mess and sucks.

Sorry. It was the 2008 12-4 Colts team that started 3-4. -EK

Playoff Indicator: Since 1990, 75% of Teams To Start 3-0 Have Made Playoffs (http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/playoff-indicator-since-1990-75-teams-to-start-3-0-have-made-playoffs/25121/)

It bears mentioning that the NFL switched to a 12-team playoff in 1990.

Well the Dolphins-Jets series will be critical this year

These are the rest of our games. If we shit the bed, I see us finishing 9-7. If we beat the teams we should, I see us either running the table at 12-4 or as low as 10-6. Jets series and chargers game will be huge.

11/11 @ Buccaneers   8:40 PM (ET)
11/17 vs.nChargers 1:00 PM (ET)
11/24 vs. Panthers 1:00 PM (ET)
12/1@Jets 1:00 PM (ET)
12/8 @ Steelers 1:00 PM (ET)
12/15 vs. Patriots 1:00 PM (ET)
12/22 @ Bills 1:00 PM (ET)
12/29vs. Jets 1:00 PM (ET)

Staying at 7-9. Tampa gets win 1 next week in the most embarrassing shit the bed moment in Miami history.

Seriously, you think there's 6-8 more wins against that schedule? How? They won a close game last night, but I felt like there were 2 plays that won it for them and they easily could have lost. Not a bad performance at all, but not "run the table" dominant by any means when they have the Jets twice, Pats, and Panthers ahead.

3 weeks ago, I said they'd be 4-4 right now, lose to Tampa, and finish 7-9. I'm 1/1 so far. -EK

In the least surprising development of the day, you are again rewriting history:

Ugh. My mistake. I did pick Buffalo as a win for the Phins. I was incorrect. -EK

You're acting like what I posted was out of this world or something. The bucs are the second worst team in the league. I'd be shocked if they lose to your shitty Panthers and that overrated QB if yours. The Jets are frauds. They won't make the same mistakes twice vs the Bills and if it wasn't for the most horribly officiated game I had ever seen, they would have beat NE in their house.

Quit downplaying the Cincy game as well. That was a 6-2 team that we beat. You're acting like it was a fluke.

I'm not acting like it was a fluke. I'm acting like Miami won a close game on two great plays. The offense is still below average and Grimes and awake saved their behinds. Cam overrated. That's laughable. -EK

^^^You didn't address the main point of my post. I gave you reasons why I think its feasible for MIA to run the table or come close too it. Do you have any reason why the Bucs are going to get their first win against MIA, or are you just trolling?  The Panthers have an OK record, but if you dig deeper you see they've had a cupcake schedule and lost to the Bills and a very shitty AZ team. You can argue that Cam is overrated but not the team.  In fact, the Pats and the Chargers are the only teams left that I see giving MIA a challenge the rest of the way.

And I've already stated in numerous threads that many of the teams left for Miami are specific match up problems because of their ability to get to the QB, which has been Miami's easily exploited Achille's heel. As a whole, Miami's back end schedule has several top defensive opponents: Carolina (3rd in total D); Pittsburgh (4th); the Jets twice (6th). Miami simply isn't good enough offensively to run the table with just those four games alone, never mind the fact that they can't keep up with New England and already lost once at home to Buffalo, who they face in cold weather December (along with the Jets and the Pittsburgh game). There isn't any trolling going on here, you're just not realistic if you think they'll finish 12-4. I applaud your faith in them though, and think a fan should believe in his/her team. Good for you; I just disagree. -EK

I don't read all if your posts, but at least you gave me an explanation. I know where you stand and you know where I stand, so we just have to see how it plays out now.

Actually what has really been Miami's achilles heal has been turnovers and those 2 teams you mentioned are at the bottom of the league with only 5 forced turnovers apiece. Only San Diego has been worse in that regard and oh look who else is on Miami's schedule.

MIA's average sacks allowed in 4 wins: 4.25
MIA's average sacks allowed in 4 losses: 5

Isn't that like saying the "easily exploited Achilles heel" of the Marino-era Dolphins was a bad run game?  Since everyone has been getting to MIA's QB, I don't see how those teams are "match up problems."

The entire board bitches after every game- even the wins- about QB protection. Tannehill is on pace to get sacked over 70 times. But, nooooooooo, that's not their Achille's heel. It's a match-up problem because the offense isn't good enough to keep allowing him to take those hits and win games. They only scored 13 points against Cincy. If it hadn't been for the D that's a fifth loss in a row, and you can't expect the defense to score over a TD every week.

Edit to add- I'm not saying it's impossible that they finish far better than my 7-9 prediction. Anything is possible. Miami could reel off a number of wins and get 9 or 10 wins total. I just don't believe it's any kind of realistic expectation to see 12-4. -EK

We had a thread topic....

(http://forums.watchuseek.com/f15/breitling-navitimer-01-date-changing-problems-880649.html)

I will root for the Saints today, that's for sue

Amazing! They're about to beat NO. Meanwhile the "shitty" Panthers drop 30+ for the fourth straight game. -EK

Jets 5-4
Titans 4-4
Dolphins 4-4

Wow. How bad is it that the Jets just beat the Saints....

Their defense is nasty as it always is. That's going to be a hard out for anyone. The Titans still play Jax twice, but they also play Indy twice and are at Denver. -EK

However, both the Titans and Dolphins control their own destiny, the Jets don't.

Yup. My prediction about TB getting it's 1st win against Miami may be wrong. They're currently up 21-0. -EK

Saints couldn't stop the Jets run game.Jets offense isn't great but if they can run the ball they are tough. Cincy/Titans laid the blueprint this season how to beat the Jets. Stop the Ivory/Powell and force Geno to throw all day. He can't beat a decent defense with his arm. Good win for the Jets today though no doubt

I know TB sucks but that is a choke job for the ages!!! Even for them!

Well, I for one am not counting the game next week as a gimme.  But definitely a must win.

Here's the update

Jets 5-4
Chargers 4-4
Titans 4-4
Dolphins 4-4
Ravens 3-5
Raiders 3-5
Texans 3-5

Looks like Gary Kubiak suffered a mild stroke. I hope he is ok.

I don't know who will win the 6th Wild Card spot but I know the Jets aren't going. Geno Smith is terrible and that defense stinks.

That defense held New Orleans to 6 second half points en route to a win. Good call, Captain Overreaction. -EK

They also made Andy Dalton look like Johnny Unitas and gave up 49 to the Bengals. And today made EJ Manuel look like a superstar today.  That defense stinks!

Likewise, they made Tom Brady look pretty pedestrian. TWICE. They're the 7th best defense in the league and lead the league in run D. Looking at stats from only two games as you're doing is surprising, given how often you accuse others of cherry-picking. -EK

It's more than 2 games. Gave up 49 to Cincy. 38 to Titans. 37 to the Bills. 28 to Atlanta.....not like I am naming great offenses here. The ONLY stat that counts is points, Total defense is worthless. Points Allowed is what they keep score in!

Wanna bet on if the Jets make the playoffs? You sound pretty high on them and confident!

Lol, they have a better chance than HR threats Miller and Wallace and the Lose-to-Winless-Tampa Miami does. At worst, the Jets defense is inconsistent. They have stepped up big in as many games as they've been beaten. -EK

No need to bring Miami into this conversation. This has nothing to do with them , don't deflect and go off topic. It's about the JETS! You are already backpedaling on their defense. Guess no bet? Your balls shrink? Guess so!

Just like you did when I asked you to bet on Brandon Marshall's performance in a game. Remember that? Loser of the bet leaves the board and you were to cowardly to accept it? Whose balls shrunk then?

Back on topic- I don't believe the Jets defense is some awesome force and never said that I did. Your gross overreaction that they stink is what I was commenting on. -EK

No idea what your talking about. So no bet. Got it!

I am NOT overreacting saying they stink, they have played miserable in many games this year. The couple good ones they have had doesn't change that.

And they've played very well in many games this year. The couple miserable ones they have doesn't change that either. They're a .500 team because the defense is wildly inconsistent, not because it stinks. -EK

Ravens Lost
Browns Lost
Jets Lost
Titans Lost

The winner of this SD-Miami game had very very good day!

Here's the way it looks right now

Jets 5-5
Dolphins 5-5
Ravens 4-6
Steelers 4-6
Browns 4-6
Titans 4-6
Chargers 4-6
Raiders 4-6
Bills 4-7


Mind-boggling

Raiders and Chargers with too many games left vs KC and Denver, cross them off. Titans and Browns don't have a QB they can count on they are both done, cross them off. Honestly I only see Jets, Fins, Ravens, and Pitt with a chance. And I have little faith in the Fins o-line and no faith in Geno Smith. I think it might be Pitt or Baltimore.

I would go with Pitt at this point, as they seem to be clicking at the right time and Miami has a tough schedule.

Either way, we may see an 8-8 or God forbid 7-9 playoff team in the AFC.

^^^ Steelers also have a pretty easy schedule going forward.  They only have one game against a team above .500, a home game vs the Bengals.

Week 14 Fish @ Steelers could knock the loser out of the playoff race. 

Dolphins have two games against teams about .500 - Panthers and Patriots.

Jets have one -- Panthers. 

Decent chance that the #6 spot could be determined week 17 Mia @ Jets.    But it might be Browns @ Steelers.   

Ravens end the season @Lions, vs. NE, @Cinci.  (So I think we can take them out of the mix)

Browns have Bears and Patriots to play. 

Chargers have Chiefs (x2) Bengals and Broncos (I don't see them in the playoffs)

Raiders have Chiefs and Broncos. 

I saw a tweet or post or something that said if the playoffs started today and the Dolphins were in they would play the Colts and then possibly the Bengals. Two teams they have already beaten. Although I don't know well it would work the second time it is kind of cool knowing we have beaten two of the potential opponents.

nope, jets have a better div record than mia

Basically, Miami needs to either sweep the Jets or beat NE to have any chance of making the playoffs.

I said "and if they were in". I didn't say if they started today they would be in.

They would play the Broncos in the second round. The NFL re-seeds the teams in the playoffs.

How do you reconcile these two statements? How can you possibly say "if they were in" and determine where they would be if they're not in? This doesn't make sense. -EK

What the heck does that mean?  If they were in then the standings would be different, if they were in they might be hosting Jacksonville. 

Pittsburgh has to be massive favorites for the second wild card spot.

Well

Jets 5-6
Ravens 5-6
Steelers 5-6
Dolphins 5-6
Chargers 5-6
Titans 5-6

And another team about to join the 5-6 teams

Anyway, Miami has beaten the Chargers, and lost to the Ravens

But with all of these teams tied, it might not matter

With the exception of the Bills game, I've been spot on. This team is not finishing over .500. Just don't see it. -EK

They are gonna be the wildcard. Jets have no QB and the defense is so-so. Miami has no offensive line. Baltimore isn't very good overall. Steelers have this in the bag minus a big injury

Phins still decide their fate so I pick them. If I had to pick another team though, it would be PIT.

One game at a time.

If they lose next week, they are in serious trouble

If Fitzpatrick can play decent wouldn't be shocked to see Tenn catch Indy for the division title. The Colts look shot!

They play each other next week

Can anyone make sense of the tiebreakers? Currently, Miami is last among the 5-6 teams, despite holding head to head wins over two of them. -EK

Ii think when multiple teams are involved, head to head tiebreakers go out the window.

Correct. Head to Head only works when there are 2 teams. With multiple teams, first split your division tiebreakers across the board. Which puts Miami behind the Jets as of today.  Then you start looking at conference records and such.

and it could come down to net points in the conference, like in 1999

Gotta beat the Jets

First thing you do is one from each division.

Jets represent the East b/c they have a better div record than the Fins. 
Steelers over Ravens based on head to head.
Titans. 
Chargers. 

Steelers & Titans over  Chargers and Jets b/c of conf record.

Not sure why Steelers are over Titans must be SOV. 

Got it. Makes sense. Srs.



Not srs. -EK

How do the tiebreakers shake down if the season ended today

You know if you had to lose a game it's better to lose a non-conference one

Most of the time yes, however, under certain situations you are better off losing one of your two conf games set by your last year finish than a non-conf game.  I believe 2008 for the Dolphins was one of those years.

That year I remember actually.  Both of the Patriots and Dolphins lost both of their conference games set by their last year finish.

The difference was Miami's other loss was the the Cardinals, while the Patriots other loss was to the Chargers   

It is impossible to get to conference tiebreakers against the Jets.  Either:

a) MIA wins 3 of remaining 4 divisional games (splitting with NYJ)
b) MIA sweeps NYJ
c) NYJ beats MIA on divisional tiebreakers

Only a) will go beyond H2H/division tiebreakers, and I think a) is the least likely outcome.  However, if MIA does win 3 division games, next tiebreaker is common opponents, and MIA is certain to lose that.  MIA is 2-0 against non-common opponents (IND, SD) and NYJ is already 0-1 (TEN), so if MIA and NYJ finish with the same record, it is not possible for MIA to win that tiebreaker.

^^This is the problem with trying to figure tie breakers now. There are just too many games left to played by folks that will probably effect tie breakers. You can maybe start figuring tie breakers with a game or 2 left, but with 5 left it's pretty pointless.

The only thing worth discussing tiebreakerwise is questions such as..."if the Titans and the Fins both win all remaining games who gets the playoff spot?"

But questions like "who wins the tie breaker Steelers vs fish?" are pointless.  Ans: who ever wins on 12/8.

Not sure why I didn't recognize this before, but it's very simple:

Either MIA sweeps NYJ, or MIA loses to NYJ on tiebreakers.

There is no longer any possible scenario in which MIA can overtake NYJ on a tiebreak without sweeping them.  MIA is eliminated at common opponents, no matter what.

^^^^

What if Miami finishes with a better record than the Jets

Jets defense looks horrible again today. They are eliminated since they don't have a QB and can't stop anyone with a piss poor defense.

SD is all but eliminated. There schedule is tough here on out

The Ravens schedule is killer....NE, Lions, and Cincy still. Titans still have Arizona and Denver still.

I still think it will be Pittsburgh in the end but Miami if they can win next week at Pitt might actually pull this off. Ravens schedule is so tough I am not sure they can go 3-1 in their last 4.

The Dolphins schedule isn't a picnic either.  Three more division games plus the steelers isn't easy.

Nobody said it was "easy" but its "easier" than the Ravens

Tiebreakers only apply when your record is the same.

The results this week were the best possible outcome for MIA's wild-card hopes.  The Dolphins won their game and every other team in contention for the #6 seed lost (except BAL who beat PIT, but only one loss was going to come out of that contest either way).

Pit winning would have been better for the fish, cause then the Dolphins would control their own destiny.   

Baltimore does play New England later, which benefits Miami.

It's going to be hard for the fish to beat the Patriots.

The only way I see Miami making the playoffs is if they win 3 of 4 (because there is no way they will win all 4), and the Ravens win only 2 of 4.

This weeks Miami-Pitt game is essentially a playoff game in my book. Loser is pretty much DONE. Winner has a great chance to sneak in

If Miami loses to NE and beats Buffalo and NYJ (not guarenteed, of course)

They need the Ravens to lose two or the Bengals to lose three.

I think that is an "and" not an "or"

^^^^

No, it is or.

The Dolphins get the tiebreak against the Bengals, but lose it against the Ravens

New England controls its own destiny in the the AFC. 

I know Miami crapped the bed today but whats the Ravens excuse? They are at home, in nice weather, vs a defense that can't stop anybody. I mean Jason Campbell had a career day vs the Pats defense and the Ravens can't score on them through 3 and 1/2 quarters.

That 6th spot in the AFC is sad,....nobody wants it.