The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

I am now 2-2.
Then 4-0.
(6-2 total)


This week, I take:
Seattle over SF
Denver over NE

I'm also really happy that these are the four teams.  I think that they're the 4 best teams in the NFL and we will have interesting match-ups and stories throughout.  I'm also surprised that the Colts got as much love as they did.  I really didn't think they were any good and I knew that NE wasn't playing that comeback bullcrap that the Colts have lived by.

Seattle and Denver are my picks!!!!!

I'm taking the home teams as well

1-3 opening round
3-1 Divisional round
4-4 total

Going against the grain here and picking both road teams to make it to the Super Bowl

49ers over Seahawks
Patriots over Broncos

49ers-Patriots was my preseason Super Bowl pick for the Predict the NFL Season thread...no reason to go against that now.

I think the Seahawks pull it off but there is no way Denver is going to stop the Pats. Whether or not the Seahawks can beat the Pats is anyone's guess.

I guess if you pick the 49ers to win in one contest, and the Seahawks to win in another, you're sure to get one of them right... ;)

Five people in the Predict the NFL Season contest have a chance of landing both of their Super Bowl picks. Those are (with eventual SB champ in parentheses):

Broncos-49ers:

Guru-in-Vegas (49ers)
Landshark (49ers)
CF DolFan (49ers)
Pappy (Broncos)

Patriots-49ers:

Sunstroke (49ers)

Interestingly enough, nobody picked Seattle to win it all, though two people picked the Houston Texans to be SB champs. ;D

4-4, and trying not to feel it.

Patriots, Seahawks this week.

And 'Stroke.....see what had happened with the Texans pick was.....

^^^ No need to explain...I picked them to win their division as well. That one was a serious "swing and a miss" for a lot of people this year.

I said Pats-Seahawks in the Super Bowl so I will stick with that.

^^^ What you said to yourself in the shower this morning doesn't count... ;)

Seattle & Denver.  Denver wins the Super Bowl, it's been a Peyton year.

There
There is also no way New England is gonna stop Denver

NE
49rs

NE wins the SB

Denver vs. NFC sacrificial lamb. I'd prefer to face that punk qb from San Francisco with the big schnozz that thinks he's a gangster. It's like watching a cross between a young Ice-T and an aardvark in a 49ers uniform...

And the 49ers would much rather face the Denver junior varsity defense, but I highly doubt they'll be able to beat New England.

Whichever NFC team gets to the Super Bowl is going to impose its will on whichever AFC team makes it. There isn't a single AFC team that has a defense anything like what Seattle and SF bring to the field, and that shit is going to provide a rude awakening when they get to the Super Bowl. Conversely, EVERY team in the NFC West has a much better defense than either Denver or New England, so it will likely seem like we'll be playing against the practice squad...

Since I fully expect you to wander back into the woods once Denver is eliminated this weekend, I'll go ahead and say that it was good to see you again, and I'll catch you at the beginning of next season, when you emerge from your troll hibernation and start growling about how awesome you think your team is again.

If DEN's 19th-ranked defense is "junior varsity," what does that make SF's 24th-ranked offense?  The San Francisco offense is the worst remaining unit (offense or defense) still in the playoffs, and they're headed to play against the best remaining defense at the most hostile stadium for visitors.

I don't see SEA beating either AFC team on a neutral field; they are an above-average team away from home.  And based on Kaepernick's total ineptness @SEA thus far, I don't see SF beating them.  So I'll say the AFCC game winner will be the SB winner.

Looking at advanced stats, SF has the 8th ranked offense. Apparently, if you have a good D, you just don't need to score a lot of points. And, also apparently, if you play a lot of good defenses, you don't score as many points. Shocker.

Can we add to the list of "shockers" that if you have the highest scoring offense in the history of the league and your QB throws a record number of TDs, that your defense is going to be on the field a lot and will subsequently give up more yards/points than a team that chews up 8 minutes to kick a field goal?

I would say just the opposite. New England and Denver both had higher time of possession this season than either San Francisco or Seattle.


Don't throw logic at the self-proclaimed 49er-hater, Spidey...he'll just twist it up and present a 17-page diatribe on how the angle of the sun during afternoon games affects blue-eyed QBs more than brown-eyed QBs on designed roll-outs, and how two-minute offenses are influenced by the political climate in Zambia, yada-yada-yada. You'll laugh, you'll cry, you'll yawn...

The quality of the defenses you face definitely affects the offense. And, as noted, no division had the defensive prowess, across the board, as the NFC West.

My only concern, should Denver make it to the Super Bowl, is the high likelihood of Peyton Manning getting killed on the field. As much respect as I have for Manning, I'd hate to see his tombstone read "Died by Blunt Force Trauma at the Hands of the 49ers Defense."

False. (http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/team-time-of-possession-statistics/2013/)

Even if it were true, DEN's opponents attempted ~30 more passes than SF's and ~90 more passes than SEA, while DEN's defense was between SF and SEA in opponent rush attempts.  DEN's offense attempted ~40 less rushes than either SF or SEA.  Time of possession only tells you that in DEN's games, DEN was generally choosing to pass and their opponent had to pass to keep up (and incomplete passes stop the clock).

The quality of the offenses you face definitely affects the defense. And no division had the offensive prowess, across the board, as the AFC West.  See how easy it is?

In point of fact, the AFCW teams had the best combined offenses of any division, while the NFCW teams had the worst.  And while I'm sure you'd like to play the "but that's because Defense Is King in the NFCW!" card, both of them played against the AFCS, who had the 2nd-worst offense (behind the NFCW, of course) but the 4th-best defense.

In other words, while SEA and SF were "clamping down" on some of the worst offenses in the league, DEN's offense was beating some otherwise-respectable defenses.

True

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=TIME_OF_POSS_SECONDS_PER_GAME_AVG&tabSeq=2&season=2009&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TOTAL_YARDS&qualified=false
 (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=TIME_OF_POSS_SECONDS_PER_GAME_AVG&tabSeq=2&season=2009&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TOTAL_YARDS&qualified=false)

Excuse me for using NFL.com, rather than a 3rd party site for my NFL stats



In point of fact, this is due to the fact that no one in the AFC West played defense worth a damn, while everyone in the NFC West did.

And their eye color was blue...

Let me see if I can help you on how this crazy Internet thing works.  Allow me to bold the relevant section of the link you just posted to prove your point:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=TIME_OF_POSS_SECONDS_PER_GAME_AVG&tabSeq=2&season=2009&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TOTAL_YARDS&qualified=false

But maybe your point really was that DEN and NE had a higher time of possession in 2009.  If so, please do explain.

If you want to look at the numbers from 2013 instead, they can be found (on the official site!) here (http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=GAME_STATS&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=TIME_OF_POSS_SECONDS_PER_GAME_AVG&tabSeq=2&season=2013&role=TM&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&qualified=false).  (spoiler: SF and SEA had a higher ToP than DEN and NE)

We can go around and around on whether it's bad defense in the AFCW or bad offense in the NFCW.  The bottom line is that they both played the AFCS and the AFCS had a bad offense against everyone, while winding up with an average defense.  Looking at the cross-divisional numbers (so, rank is # out of 8 divisions):

AFCW had #1Off/#6Def, played against NFCE (#3Off/#7Def) and AFCS (#7Off/#4Def)
NFCW had #8Off/#1Def, played against NFCS (#6Off/#3Def) and AFCS (#7Off/#4Def)

The NFCW played 14 of its 16 games against the three worst offensive divisions in the league (and 6 of those games were against the worst offensive division: itself).  From a offensive standpoint, it would not be possible for the NFCW to have less competent cross-divisional competition than what they faced.  These other teams had garbage offenses no matter who they played.

In contrast, the defense of AFCW divisional opponents ranged from average to below-average, and the 6 intra-division games were against merely bad defenses (not the worst, as was the case with NFCW offenses).

But yeah, I know, citing stats to prove your point is wise and insightful when you do it, but pedantic and tiresome when I do it.  (Especially when I do it from the season we are actually talking about.)

Percy Harvin is out for this game

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see the Broncos win over the Patriots.

Denver's defense is just too depleted to stop New England, who's offense has been just as good as Denver's over the last half of the season.

Then comes the coaching issue and I don't know anyone who doesn't think the Patriots hold a huge advantage there.

DEN
SEA

DEN wins SB

New England's defense is just as depleted.  It's gonna be an offensive shootout but Denver having home field advantage tips the scales

Surprisingly low scoring game but Denver is gashing New England's defense.

Peyton Manning just made it a three score game.  New England will now be forced to abandon the run and they'd defense is being shredded like confetti.  I've seen them come back before but with the way the Broncos offense is firing on all cylinders, I don't see it happening here

That's a big 4th down stop. If the Broncos can get another TD on this drive then it's going to be very difficult for the Pats to come back. Not to say that they can't, but it's very, very tough to do that.

And a sack on 4th and 2 ends New England's drive deep in Denver territory!!  If Denver can get another touchdown on the board, this one could get ugly for Bill BeliCHEAT

Even bigger stop by New England holding Denver to 3.  Now they can win with three touchdowns. It's difficult but doable

This game is long over. Pats got nothing

Big long field goal by Denver. Forces New England into two touchdowns with conversions

nice 2 point conversion stop by denver

Owned. Americas team advances to claim the title which is rightfully theirs.

I hate  New England, so I guess I'm happy, I live in Denver but can't say I'm thrilled THe Broncos are going, I might cheer NFC, kind of cool to live in a city with a team going to the SB though.

The Pats defense hasn't been good in years and losing Welker, Hernandez, and Gronk was too much to overcome. Brady doesn't have too many more years left. If they don't fix that offense this offseason they are clueless.

And Belichick's career is a mirror of Don Shula's. Won big early in his head coaching career, then a long stretch of nothing but solid consistency every year but failures in Super Bowls and AFC Championship games.

Wow.  Sack strip and fumble recovery on the first play from scrimmage.  Way to silence this Seahawks crowd.

Not away, when you let golden opportunities like that get away.

Because when you do, #7 will take off for  58 yds against you.

HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOORRRRRRRRRRRR RRRIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII IBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBLLLLLLLLLL LLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEEEEEE Call

Marshawn Lynch has transformed into beast mode and has tied this game!!!

That was a big time throw from Mr. Wilson. Way to make up for an idiot kicker.

Definitely credit the 12th man for that turnover.

Big big turnover. Can the Seahawks capitalize?

When do we start talking about Brady not being able to win the big one? LOL Yes, I'm kidding, but I think it's hilarious that we often talk about how QB's can't win the big one when their team comes up short. There's no question in my mind that Tom Brady has been a better QB in recent years then he was early in his career, but he hasn't been able to win the big one lately. Obviously the reason is that he doesn't have the team around him now that he had when they were winning all those SB's. You can't win the big one without a LOT of help from your team, but we seem to forget that whenever it comes time to talk about the greatest QB's of all time. Yeah I'm talking about you Shannon Sharpe. Marino deserves an apology from you for being a classless jerk. You're damn lucky you had Elway making you look better.

In 9 of Marino's 17 years, Miami was ranked in the top 10 in scoring. 3 times during that 17 year stretch Miami's defense was in the top 10, unfortunately not once did they both happen at the same time. From '84 thru '87 Marino's offense was ranked 1, 1, 4 and 1, his defense during that time was ranked 22, 17, 26 and 12. It's pretty obvious to me why Marino never won a SB and it had nothing to do with him not being able to win the big one. Brady is fortunate his team was good enough to win early in his career otherwise he'd have to be hearing the same BS that Marino has had to endure his whole life.

That play isn't review-able. Broken Leg for Bowman. And Pete Carroll can go for it here on 4th down and end this game

Poor Bowman. That was nasty.

Wow, 49ers get screwed one two big calls that I've seen. Roughing the kicker (15 yarder) should have been called, and Bowman intercepted that ball. How in the world is that not reviewable.

I don't particular care who wins this but I want it to be a fair game, and the Seahawks have gotten the good calls.

Good, that's fair. The 49ers get the ball from a Lynch fumble. Karma. Those refs need to be reprimanded for such a horrible call.

As funny as this is to say on a "dolphins website".....the teams Brady won with were really built by Parcells. Lots of "Parcells guys" on those rosters. Once those guys were gone.....Brady has won no super bowls.

I mean Ty Law, Willie McGinnest, Kevin Faulk, Troy Brown, Teddy Bruschi, Lawyer Milloy, Ted Johnson....all guys Parcells brought in! When Brady had them, he won rings. Since they left he hasn't won a ring.

Kapernick with the chance to win the game and be a hero

with 3 timeouts and a 2 minute warning they can't give up on the run

And that is the heartbreaker.

And Kaepernick had just been KAEPED!!!!  Picked off in the end zone.  Game over.  Just like San Fran has Green Bay's number, Seattle has San Fran's.

Richard Sherman all class. What a jerk

That jerk, is the league's best corner.

Can't believe the game ends on a fluke tip.

Did you hear the shit he just said on the air?

Richard Sherman way to make it about YOURSELF and not your team going to the Super Bowl. Great interview! Erin Andrews pissed her pants I think

San Fran needs to find an NFL qb, not one that cant throw and needs to run a high school option offense. Owned. See ya in the dance Seahawks! Broncos by 3 td's....
 

Richard Sherman is The Man. Great play. Great post game interview.

I wonder if Richard Sherman can cover all 12 of Denvers receivers? Hahaha

I'd watch that tone if I were you.  I can see Seattle shutting your boys down easily.  Let's see Peyton Manning try to throw on Richard Sherman

Exactly. Seattle actually has a complete secondary. They don't have to rely on a strong pass rush.

If its nice weather...Denver wins. If its snow, rain, and wind Seattle wins. Just that simple.

Right....

what is shutting Denver down exactly? Holding them to 30 points? And why would Peyton need to throw at Sherman when he has everyone else on the field to pick on? Obviously the MVP of the league (he of 55 td passes), has brains...

Pretty sure Denver is going to beat Seattle.

I like Richard Sherman.  Nice job trolling Crabtree on national TV.

The BIG loser from today was the Cleveland Browns. Who now have to wait till Feb 3rd to interview Dan Quinn and Adam Gase

Richard Sherman. All class. I don't give a rat's ass if Crabtree was trash talking him, you keep that crap on the field. I hope Manning drops 4 TD's on his ass alone.

The 2 big stories for the next 2 weeks will be Richard Sherman AND if Peyton wins does he retire.

Sherman will get a TON of press and be the media darling. But the Peyton story will get a lot of run as well. Especially since he has that big doctors appt after the season and if his neck isn't 100% he is risking serious injury and might walk away on top.

I can't see Manning quitting after this year if they win.  He needs to catch up to Brady in rings and Favre in stats.

If Manning can retire with the same-or-more rings as Brady and every record in the book, the Brady-Manning argument is over (as well as the idiotic Peyton-Eli argument) and Peyton will pretty much lock himself in as best ever.

I don't think he will catch Brady in rings and he is chasing that.  According to Mort (who is BFF's with Archie and Olivia which is why every report he has on Peyton is 100% accurate) if that neck exam he has after the season says his neck isn't 100% he is hanging it up.

Peyton needs ~1.5 more seasons to pass Favre in everything but pass attempts (and interceptions, and fumbles).  That squares nicely with an attempt to reel in (or even pass) Brady.