The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

What's the bigger blunder - not handing off to Lynch or Scott Norwood's missed field goal?

Not handing off to Lynch is completely defensible.  SEA had a choice to run two plays (two runs) or three (two runs and a pass).  If you're going to pass, it's a good idea to do it when you have 3 WRs on the field and they are in goal-line.

The choice of route was the problem.

A 47 yard field goal on grass is no easy task by a long shot

A missed 47 yarder is hardly a blunder, it's just a missed kick.

Carroll is an asshole who tried to be cute instead of winning the game. Perhaps the biggest blunder of all-time considering what was at stake and your running back's nickname was motherfucking BEAST MODE.

Chris Webber calling a timeout at Michigan is also a huge blunder, but I think Carroll topped out because Michigan was losing while Seattle had about a 90% chance of winning.

missing a 47 yard field goal outside on grass is not a blunder.

I  disagree that the "not handing off to Lynch" was a blunder.  The blunder was calling a ridiculous timeout earlier in the 4th quarter for no apparent reason.  Had they had that timeout on the board, they could have pounded Lynch 3 times from the 1 and probably scored. 

As Spider-Dan said, with the clock running and only 1 timeout, either 2nd or 3rd down had to be a pass play, or else game ends without a 4th down.  The true problem was that the slant (in hindsight) was the wrong route.  The receiver was initially open, and there was a pick in front of him.  Butler avoided the pick and made a great play.

IMO, the play call should have been play-action rollout option with a TE coming across the back of the end zone.  Wilson could run it himself, hit the TE, or throw it away. You either score on 2nd, or you live to pound Lynch on 3rd down.

Essentially, by NOT calling a timeout to save time for a Brady comeback with 1:09 left, Bill Belichick forced Seattle into a passing play, and it paid off.

The only problem I have with a rollout is that a sack puts you back from the 1 and burns a timeout.  Wilson had better have an option to get rid of the ball FAST.

My preferred option would have been play-action back corner fade.  But the DBs you are throwing that route against are Revis and Browner, and we saw how the 49ers attempt at a back corner fade ended in the NFCCG last year.

There is no free lunch.

Sack Wilson? Surely you jest. :)

I don't see how you think of sack when you think of rolling out Wilson. #1 he is an effective runner #2 the rollout is a perfect option to avoid a sack with the throw it away outside the pocket rule #3 throwing it away kills the clock and still preserves a timeout. I think a play action rollout play would have been a perfect call.

With 30 seconds left and a timeout, you could have run the ball twice and then called a timeout. Every play should have been a run with Lynch. If you fail getting one yard with Lynch then you deserve to lose.

Give the ball to your best player on the filed at the time.  Clearly Lynch should have been the one to pound it in.  Its done and over with. Sports media has been calling this a dumb move on Coach Pete

Not just sports media. Everyone in the known universe is calling it a stupid decision.

It wasn't "big" in that it impacted the final result of the game, but the biggest blunder for me in terms of humor was Garo's attempted "pass" against the Redskins. 

Opinion:  The play selection was a blunder that cost the Seahawks the game.

Fact: Before Sunday, NFL teams had thrown the ball 108 times on the opposing team’s 1-yard line this season. Those passes had produced 66 touchdowns (a success rate of 61.1 percent, down to 59.5 percent when you throw in three sacks) and zero interceptions. The 223 running plays had generated 129 touchdowns (a 57.8 percent success rate) and two turnovers on fumbles.

Opinion: But Lynch was in beast mode and unstoppable.  Maybe with another back the odds were only 57.8% but with Lynch it was a sure thing.

Fact: Marshawn Lynch ran the ball from the 1 yard line 5 times this season. 1 TD, 2 runs for no gain, 2 runs for a loss. 

Let's not let the facts get in the way of declaring that Carroll finally did for NE what he failed to due to NE from 1997 to 1999 win them a super bowl. 

It looked like Carroll and his staff were waiting for the Pats to call a timeout at some point near the goal line, and when that TO never came, the Seahawks coaching staff panicked and decided to go into time saving mode.  They wanted to make sure they could get 3 plays in before 0:00, but shit the bed with that last call.  The Seahawks pulled defeat from the jaws of victory.  Belichick > Carroll, which should come as no surprise.

I'm hoping Joe Philbin watched how Belichick didn't call a needless timeout at the end of a game, but somehow, I'm sure the lesson didn't sink in.

Cherrypicked facts are awesome. Here's another one.

The New England Patriots were deadlast in the NFL in defending plays from the 1 yard line. They allowed a touchdown on those plays 87% of the time.

How was he from the 2 yard line?

This could be a very cherry-picked stat based on the semantics of ball spotting.

They weren't on the 2 yard line.  Stats from the 1 are entirely relevant.

And one of the recurring themes of the anti-passers is that Lynch is the obvious choice to gain 1 yard.  Is he the obvious choice to gain 2 yards?  3?  4?

Try telling that to a Bills Fan and they will disagree with you.  Besides, Norwood made kicks of this distance throughout his career.  It's not like he didn't have the distance on that kick.

I understand but, as a Marshawn Lynch fantasy owner, I recall a vast many more than 1 goal line TD from him this season.  So, to say that only one TD came from "specifically the 1 yard line" completely ignores his goal line prowess any from distances farther.  Why not show his stats from "inside the 5 yard line" just to illustrate the point?  Your vehement objection further emphasizes the claim of cherry-picking.

You are the one attempting to cherry pick!  At EXACTLY the distance that the Seahawks were at, Lynch was 1/5 this season.  They were not at the 2, or the 3, or the 4, so why are you trying to include stats for distances that they were not at?

Suppose Lynch was 5/5 at from the 4-yard line.  Who cares?  They weren't at the 4-yard line!

^ Sample size.

Brian is attempting to loosen the criteria and make more relevant data, in order to increase the sample size, as plays only from the 1 yard line could be an outlier.

BUT THEY WERE AT THE ONE YARD LINE

Let me put this another way:  you could just as easily say, "What is Lynch's lifetime success rate from the 1-yard line?" if you wanted to muddy the waters.  You are intentionally including less specific stats because the direct stats are unfavorable.

You aren't "cherry picking" success rates if you only cite 2014 instead of 2011/2012/2013/2014, because this is the 2014 team.  And you aren't "cherry picking" stats if you only cite from the 1 instead of 1/2/3/4 because they were at the 1.

dude, it was just a point of interest.  If the guy is 8/10 for 8 TD's from the 2 yard line, don't you think if he RAN FOR 2 YARDS from the 1 yard line, it would STILL BE A TD?

Don't get so offended, jeez.  It was just a question, as Dave stated, to widen the sample size, and remove "THE SPOT OF THE BALL" from the already-ridiculous "would he have scored or not from the 1 yard line" hypothetical speculation.

Let's throw in Marshawn Lynch's success rate from the 1.5 yard line and the 0.5 yard line just to add more ridiculousness to the turn this discussion has taken.  ???

*- NOTE - Read back, I also said that the call to pass was not a terrible call.  I'm not arguing in the "give it to Lynch" camp, but let's stop short of speaking about how terrible Lynch is from short yardage...

To avoid the cherry-picked stat line, and illustrate the same concept, I found this article on Sporting News.  Here's an excerpt:

His 280 total carries were fourth in the NFL, his 13 rushing touchdowns were tied for first, and seven were from five yards or fewer. He has 15 career regular-season and postseason one-yard touchdown runs (including one in last year’s Super Bowl), and 42 from five yards or less.

The article shows all 5 of Lynch's run plays from the one yard line, since that's all that matters cause that's where the ball was.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2015-02-04/nfl-super-bowl-seahawks-marshawn-lynch-one-yard-line-analysis-context-pete-carroll-call-patriots-2014