The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

Here's a "how much of a gambler are you" question for the board.  La'el Collins, Tackle from LSU.  Was supposed to be a 1st rounder.  Day before the draft his ex girlfriend turns up dead.  Police are saying he is NOT a suspect, but they wanted to talk to him so he left Chicago and went home to talk to them.  Talk is that he is going to go into free fall mode in the draft even though at this time, the police are saying he is not a suspect.  Key part of that phrase is the "at this time" aspect of it. 

Here is the question.  Let's say he is still there when the Fins get to their round 2 pick.  Still needing OL help, do you roll the dice on a round 1 talent and hope that he has truly nothing to do with the crime?  Or, let's say he REALLY falls off the map and he is there in the 4th round.  Do you take a roll of the dice with a 4th round pick on him?

I was high on Collins before this broke. This is a very sticky situation. There has been some discussion that Collins might sit out a year if he falls too low. He already attempted to remove his name from the draft. I'd say if he keeps falling he isn't going to play so I don't think I'd use a pick on him.

Good point about the possibility of him sitting out.  I did see where he asked to be removed from the draft and the NFL declined.  I wouldn't spend a Round 2 pick on him at this juncture, but if he was there in Round 4 (or later), I might be tempted to roll the dice. It sure would be nice to pick up Round 1 talent for the O-Line in Round 4.  But like you said, the possibility of him sitting out would make it a really dicey move.

Collins and his agent just put out a release saying if he isn't drafted tonight he won't sign with anyone this year or play with anyone this year and will re-enter the draft next year.

So Collins NFL career is all but over...lol. When your name is tied into a murder investigation  in some way shape or form,you shouldn't be giving 32 NFL teams ultimatums. 

Can't fix Stupid!

He must believe in his innocence to issue this ultimatum. I can see him being very angry that this happened and cost him a ton of money, but who would spend a 1st rounder on a guy who hasn't played in an entire year? I can't imagine his value getting any higher than it is right now.

Like I said, sucks for him if he has no connection to the crime, but his best chance is to just play now.

Collins was just informed by the NFL if he goes undrafted he can't re-enter the draft next year.

This kid either got what he deserved or was royally screwed. We won't know until the investigation comes out. I say take a chance on him, wouldn't be the worst pick we've ever made if it blows up in our faces. Kid has a very high ceiling and would make the O-Line elite. Our offense would be Top 10 if we got him and he avoided bunking with Aaron Hernandez.

I'd be too chicken to take him in round 2, but if he is there in the 4th I would take a flyer on him.

"Please take the gamble!!!" - Ryan Tannehill

he said he won't play if he is taken after Round 3.

I think the nfl subsequently said he couldnt enter the supplemental OR regular draft next year though. If true, he will want to reconsider that stance.

Yes, that's true. The NFL stomped on his plans, so it's either play for who you are drafted for or enjoy the CFL.

That is if he is undrafted. Nothing is stopping him if he does.

Police say he is not a suspect in the murder.

At one point, Aaron Hernandez was not a suspect in Odin Lloyd's murder.

Turns out the baby survived the shooting.   If Collins is the father, we could be looking at another Rae Carruth situation.

Since we have no other options, I'd say use one of our 5th rounders on him. Those picks are for depth and projects anyway.

The baby actually didn't survive...she passed away this evening.

Sad to hear.  Now whoever is responsible for this is looking at two murder charges.

I would  risk a 4th on him, offer him 2nd round total dollars,  non guaranteed.

He has no choice to sign for whatever the slot is. He can hold out, but if he doesn't sign, he can't re-enter the draft. Pretty sure he can't do anything for a whole year either.

He just has to accept this and play well enough to earn that huge contract. Was the baby his?

EDIT: NFL spokesman says that he can't re-enter the draft next year, but the CBA doesn't really mention a situation like this. So, it could be a legal battle. Or as was mentioned above, draft him in the 5th for 2nd round money to get him to sign IF he is innocent.

the rules are clear, if he is drafted and holds out he reenters the draft.  If he goes undrafted he becomes an udfa and can not be drafted next year

Well then, screw that spokesman.

Still seems like that would be a terrible idea. Who is spending a 1st rounder on a guy who sat out a whole year doing nothing?

Still undrafted. I don't see how you don't use a 7th rounder on the kid.

someone probably will. Could see Seattle, Buffalo, or Dallas doing so

Maybe it is a PR thing.  Teams don't want to be the team that drafted him if he ends up getting charged.  All the non-sports news headlines would read "Dolphins (or whoever) draft murderer!"

Every NFL team has a wife beater or drunk driver or criminal on their roster.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if he goes undrafted, then he can sign with any team for whatever money he can negotiate for? If he is cleared of all charges in say 2 weeks, then he is a 1st round talent who is essentially a free agent. No slot money. So, he can sign for a lot more than if he was drafted in the 7th round. Worth the risk.

Yeah but murder. He might be involved in a murder here nobody really knows and nobody wants to take the risk

Even UDFA's have a rookie wage scale attached to them.   Sucks no one took a flyer on him.  I feel bad for the guy if he's innocent.   And my team's O-Line was just as bad as yours last year, if not worse. 

IF this kid is cleared its going to be a recruiting effort to sign him. Better hope Jarvis Landry and Anthony Collins were tight with this kid and BFF's with him from their time together at LSU

Here is the most Collins can make. So if he is cleared it esentially is up to him where he goes as the money is maxed out for him per the terms below..

La'el Collins can earn a maximum $521,957 this year... UDFA max signing bonus is $86,957 + rookie base salary of $435K

Having no state income tax might come into play and help  teams like Jags, Fins, and Bucs

Miami can't guarantee him a starting job, but it would be his best chance to start in Week 1. On paper, we are a playoff team. In execution, that's a different story.

Depends on what he wants.  FLA offers no tax, but not much chance at a ring.  Team like NE or Sea offers the chance to be playing football in January.   Saints is likely the team he rooted for as a kid.  Jets, Giants offers the max money from endorsements.

depends on what he wants

I think he clearly wants the most money. Kid was going to be a Top 10 pick. NFL Network said a team inside the Top 10 was going to take him until this broke. I don't think he is chasing a ring right now and I don't think he is in line for any endorsements with his name tied to a murder even if he had nothing to do with it

His money won't swing much from team to team, except for the no state tax states. So, it really is who will offer him a chance to start right away and isn't a horrible team.

There's no income tax in Washington state, either...

If Collins is completely innocent (and I'm going to assume he is until otherwise proven), this really, really sucks.

The NFL completely screws players like Collins. Undrafted Free Agents have a fixed contract length of 3 years @ NFL minimums ($435k in year 1, going up about $100k a year). Each team is allotted a total of $80k for UDFA signing bonuses.

Getting drafted in round 4 wouldn't have been much better. He'd be eligible for a bigger signing bonus, but the salary would have been about the same and he'd have been tied to a 4-year deal (as opposed to 3).

As an UDFA, Collins can pick his destination, which certainly has a lot of value. Had he been drafted, he could have refused to sign and entered the draft again next year.

The one thing Collins can hope for is that he can find a team willing to guarantee his salary (which would be about $1.5 million over 3 years).

Another thing to consider for Collins is where he will get the most playing time. The league has an extra pool of money set aside for "Performance Based Pay" (about $120 million for 2015, so it isn't exactly peanuts). This money goes to players who see a lot of playing time, but aren't paid a lot. Seantrel Henderson (BUF - T), a 7th round pick, nearly doubled his salary last year with payouts from this pool. Miami's Jelani Jenkins scored $242k on top of his $500k-ish salary. For anyone interested in the specifics of this pool, there are (official) details here:

https://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/03-13-15-performance-based-pay-2.pdf

Collins kind of screwed himself by declaring what he will and won't do, before really knowing his options, too, though.  Teams don't want to draft a guy who's refusing to play.  He should've just shut up, let everything play out, and then use "not playing" as leverage to get a better contract or to, in fact, sit out once drafted.

Actually, he may make more oney in the long run. Drafted rookies typically get a 4 year deal, Collins will get a 3 year deal and become an RFA in year 4 with the potential to make substantially more than those players that were drafted in rounds 3-7.

That being said, I don't think anyone was going to draft him with his situation unsettled no  matter what he said or did.

Mike Tannenbaum worked at the agency where La'Ell Collins is represented.  That is the place Tannenbaum left when he took the Miami job. Hopefully Tannenbaum can call in some favors

He very well might, but talking only served to harm his situation.  If he was drafted in any round, it opened his options.

My only problem with signing him is that he comes in with a chip on his shoulder, feeling underpaid, and creates a problem in the locker room.

How so? He will be a UDFA, which means he can sign with anyone. If he had been drafted later, he not only is stuck with the team that drafts him, he is stuck with the contract he gets as a late round pick for four years. This way, he can choose the team he signs with and is stuck with his rookie contract for a year less.

Because if he were drafted, he can enter the draft again next year and get (potentially) first round money if he couldn't get a contract he liked.  If he's not drafted, he's draft ineligible next year.

If he were drafted, he wouldn't have much to negotiate as he would fall under a rookie scale. If he decided to sit out the year, he just spent an entire year without a paycheck. That's a year of his life lost and out of the league. That is a big risk to take.

This really has nothing to do with the Dolphins so I moved the topic.

I'm really interested in how this story is going to turn out. It certainly feels like a slow developing story.

Rich, I might be wrong on this, but I thought that he was showing all his cards by saying he'd refuse to play if drafted after the 2nd round. 

No that is correct but that's not what we're talking about.

You think he would have been better off because he could just go into the draft next year. I think he would have been worst off.

Now he can sign with anyone while commiting to one less year while if he had gone back into the draft he would miss an entire year of football.

I think you might mis-understand. 

I don't think he'd be better off.  He's saying that's what he would do.  But if undrafted, he's not allowed to do that.  Whereas if he was drafted, he could refuse to sign and keep that open open, should he choose to do that.

^^^ If the object was to make sure no one drafted him late, then it worked out just fine.

I do think the NFL should consider a small rule change allowing players who went undrafted (regardless of reason) to enter the supplemental draft. Wouldn't change a thing for the vast majority of players and would force some players who felt shafted to really think hard on whether they wanted to sign as an UDFA or if they wanted to take a shot at the supplemental draft.

It's not like there would be any (significant) extra work for the NFL if there were suddenly 10x more people in the supplemental draft.

As one or two others have said, I am going to really feel for this guy if it turns out that he had nothing to do with the death of his ex gf.  Although he sure didn't do himself any favors with his comments about not playing if he wasn't drafted in the first couple rounds. If he has a management team, they should have talked him away from taking that stance. 

^^^  The management team made the statement.

Fins and Bills showing the most interest and have reached out to him already. Rex has already flown down to visit with him in person. Saints are also in play here too.

Those like like the 3 teams he will pick from as of now.

Saints suck while the Bills and Dolphins are playoff contenders. So, if he were to choose from those two, Buffalo weather and taxes or Miami weather and no taxes?

On paper, teams are about the same 8-10 win quality.

Apparently Rex was in the New Orleans area and just showed up unannounced to meet with him and his people weren't ready for it nor did they want to meet with anyone. The reason the Saints are in play is because he played his college ball in the state and he might want to stay in the area. I still think Tannenbaum having strong ties to his agents and his agency will play a factor when all is said and done but the ties to Louisiana might be too tough to break.

A team that really wanted to land La'el could do a lot to sweeten the pot. It might be hard to give him the whole pool of UDFA bonus money, but guaranteeing the whole contract would be a no-brainer. Additionally, UDFA's can be extended after 2 years. They could make some solid promises on the nature of that extension offer, although how much could be in the actual contract, I don't know.

Interesting. I'd say they did him a grave disservice by trying to essentially blackmail NFL teams and it blew up in their face. 

Per Palm Beach Post the Collins is unlikely to sign with Rex and the Bills. And Miami is in town today visiting with him and his agent.

Miami is the clubhouse leader as a they have 3 ex-LSU guys on their roster who Collins is friendly with and Tannenbaum used to work for his agency and with his agents

Dolphster, I still don't understand your positioning. #1 He gets to choose whatever team he wants #2 His contract expires and can be restructured sooner #3 He doesn't spend a year out of football #4 I have not seen the actual numbers (I guess we'll have to wait for the contract to see them) but I don't think he loses out on much money in the short term. According to MikeO (wish we had gotten a link)
What is the negative? #1 he may lose a few hundred thousand on the front end but renegotiaties it quicker or he can't say I was drafted in some shitty fifth round position, who cares about that?

New Orleans FOX affiliate reporting Jarvis Landry, Anthony Johnson, and Kelvin Sheppard are currently setting up a visit with Collins to talk him into coming to Miami.

Stay tuned this might go down quick!

UPDATE:: Mike Pouncey has joined the gang on the recruiting trip for some unkown reason.

Teams are not allowed to meet with Collins on campus or at his residence till May 9th. Which prompted Rex and the Bills to issue a statement that Rex met with him at an Applebee's...lol. Uh, might have some tampering violations there possibly.

The Fins are sending just players to recruit (although if you ask them Landry put this together on his own, but is just using Ross's private jet) as that is a "loop-hole" to the rule.  Tannenbaum has already spoken to his agents though per another report

Yeah, I guess you are right.  I was thinking more short term than long term I suppose.

I am as pessimistic as they come with this team because they have proven that they will disappoint despite the talent. That being said, even I will admit that signing this kid would give us the best O-Line in football(or 2nd next to the Cowboys)and make our offense elite with the new weapons.

Hell, I may even up my projection to 9-7!

Getting this kid does 2 big things for the Fins. 1) This year they play him at Left Guard and they have a dominate o-line Albert/Collins/Pouncey/Turner/James. I mean this kid was a Top 10-15 pick this year in the draft. A legit talent.  2) Next year they can cut Branden Albert if they want to open up cap space, move James to LT, move Collins to RT. IF the Fins need cap space or IF Albert isn't the same player after the injury and they want to move on an. Adding Collins gives the Fins flexibility. Especially if Turner proves the coaches right and is a legit starting guard in this league

It would be more likely to move Collings to LT than James. James was pretty awful at LT.

I thought he did pretty well once he got his feet wet.

The numbers and metrics say differently. Things to consider:

- James finished rated lower than Dallas Thomas at the tackle position

- When Albert went down, the Dolphins were ranked 15th in pass blocking efficiency, they finished the season ranked dead last

- James gave up 4 sacks and 23 pressures in 6 starts at left tackle. He gave up 2 sacks and 29 pressures in 10 starts at right tackle.

- James graded out very negative in his last four games of the season.

When I said pretty well, I meant he held down the fort at LT...I think he's a great RT and a serviceable LT.  He was also a rookie, so I take that into account.

I guess I just don't see 4 sacks and 23 pressures in 6 games all that bad...it's not good either, but I wouldn't call him awful.

4 sacks and 23 pressures projects out to over 10 sacks and over 60 pressures in a season. That would have put him 2nd to last in sacks allowed and dead last in pressures allowed for all tackles that took 25% of snaps or more. That means he would have ranked 81st in sacks allowed and 82nd in pressures allowed out of 82 players.

According to Tampa media, Jameis Winston and Kwon Alexander have launched an aggressive recruiting campaign to get him to Tampa.  As bad as the Dolphins O-Line is, Tampa's is much worse.  I think it's gonna come down to those two teams. 

Given that Kwon Alexander hasn't even played for TB yet and Winston is from a different college, if it comes down to those two vs. Landry/Sheppard/Johnson in convincing Collins, I like Miami's chances.

That, and Miami is the much better team on paper. He would be lined up between 2 Pro Bowlers as well with a chance to slide over to LT in 1-3 years where the big money is made.

Of all the teams mentioned, Miami really seems like the best spot for him. That could change if those cheating bastards in New England get involved, but for now it's Miami.

NFL Network reporting he is unlikely to sign with Buffalo. Seems like Miami, SD, and N.O are the early favorites

Considering the reason why he went undrafted - this COULD be dangerous if things don't turn out well...  He's a good player but let's keep things in perspective.  This is a guy that Mike Mayock said teams "wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole"

You'd only be guaranteeting $1.6 million for a potential top 15 talent. I don't see the significant danger.

I think all 32 teams made a mistake by not rolling the dice with a 7th round pick

Maybe, but if they had drafted him he could have refused to sign and then he could go back into the draft in 2016. It would have been a wasted pick, although to be fair, 7th round picks don't normally pan out anyway.

Ohhhh a wasted 7th round pick.  Even if the odds of him being cleared and signing was only 5%, I would roll the dice for a 1 in 20 chance at getting first round talent, rather than draft a camp body that could easily be replaced by a gazillion other UDFA.   

The chances of La'el Collins going to the probowl is greater than the chances of Xzavier Dickson ever taking a snap.   

Here is the thing guys, I don't believe it is even rolling the dice. I have no doubt the guy would have sat out. I would have if I made the threat. Yes the chances are greater Collins makes the Pro Bowl than Dickson taking a snap but the odd of Collins playing for any team that drafted him in the 7th round are 0 if you ask me.

Lol...

He already made it clear he would have refused to sign. In fact, he is refusing to sign until his name is completely cleared from this murder investigation which may take up to a month.

Draft him in the 7th.  Sign him to the max allowed contract, with a wink/nod agreement that he will be either be offered a 2 year $8 million contract for 2018-2019 or released after the final game of the 2017 season (and be an unrestricted FA).  A 5 year $9 million dollar contract is better than what a late 1st round pick would get.   

Have the results of the paternity test been published?

Precisely. Our owner is a Billionaire, so what if this kid is actually guilty and goes to jail? Not huge money guaranteed. We didn't make our offseason plans around him anyway, this is just a huge bonus. They have to go all in.

I don't buy into wink and nod agreements and feel sorry for people that do, especially when talking about NFL owner's winks. You must not have a very high opinion of his intelligence or the people he hired.

You mean like the wink/nod agreement Brady had with the equipment manager in charge of inflating the balls?

Not every team actively practices creative interpretation of the rules.  It's not worth taking down the team for a 7th round pick.

Jason Cole reporting Collins wants to go someplace where he can play offensive tackle. So his earning power for his 2nd contract.

IF true that hurts Miami chances some

Where is this being reported?

Jason Cole works for Bleacher report.

Philly newspaper stating that Chip Kelly is now reaching out and having an LSU guy on his roster help recruit him

Miami can slide James to RG and plug Collins in at RT. Albert at LT, Pouncey at C and let everyone else compete for LG.

Or they could put Collins at LT, slide Albert to LG, Pouncey at C, James at RT, let everyone else compete for RG.

Albert played guard in college, I am sure James could man the guard position. Those guys are under contract and don't exactly have a lot of leverage as to where they line up.

I don't see this as an issue at all. The Dolphins are closing deals more often than not with Tannenbaum at the helm. They can do what it takes to acquire this kid.

Albert seemed pretty set on playing the LT position when he came to Miami, so I imagine he wouldn't be too keen on being moved. I could definitely see James sliding in to the RG slot and plugging Collins in at RT.

All this being considered, before this whole situation unfolded, most folks thought it was likely that whoever drafted Collins would move him inside to guard anyway.

Albert already made his money, he's the best candidate to slide inside.

Albert became disgruntled in KC (and left) because they wanted to move him.  Let's not go blowing up our best lineman (when healthy) last year for some unproven rookie who projects as a guard.

you know, i'm sorry, but this guy is lucky to have a job.  To now dictate where the coaches see him fit in well tells me this guy is a diva idiot.  Not even a day in the league and he's saying things like "I don't wanna get drafted past the first round" and "I don't wanna play where they want me to"

F this guy, he sounds like a stuck up a-hole.

I don't know if I'd say that an OLineman (from a football factory school) that was projected to go in the first round is "lucky to have a job."  First-round lineman normally indicates a pretty high value, and if this guy knows he's going to be exonerated and basically got screwed by bad timing, I can see why he feels like he's in control.

I mean, when you think about it, if there were a way for a first-round talent to opt out of the draft normally, they wouldn't be able to control their salary but they would have a high degree of control over where they went and what position they played at.  It's like if a normal unrestricted free agent had a fixed salary and the only leverage they had was which position they would play.

You said it, when healthy, and towards the end of his career.

Why is he lucky? if anything he is the unluckiest SOB ever in NFL Draft history. Not only could he have possibly lost his first child he also lost out on millions. You got some weird definition of "lucky" that most don't hold.  Gone from a Top 10-15 pick and making millions to playing for the rookie minimum. Over something he didn't do per many reports.

He is a FREE AGENT at this point and that gives him the right to dictate where he can go.  Once again your anger is misguided Brian

Or he is a guy trying to position himself in the best possible place to maximize the amount of money he will make in his short career as a football player, just like ANY OTHER player would do.

News breaking tonight that Collins is NOT the father of the child who died in the shooting. He passed a lied detector test with the police and he has a solid alibi for the time the murder went down.

Also, he has a meeting lined up with the Cowboys

I get the feeling he won't sign for weeks, if not almost 2 months. The Cowboys have the best O-Line in football and both tackle spots are well taken, so he would have to be a Guard, something he said he preferred not to do.

Seems like he will visit lots of teams if he is even bothering to visit the Cowboys. Probably going to play them against each other in hopes of getting that tackle spot.

I think he is going to sign by the weekend. He has been contacted by every team. He and his agents have already narrowed the list and they have told the teams he isn't going to he isn't going there. I think by Sunday this kid has a team

Yeah what a lucky guy. He lost millions over something he had nothing to do with...

ESPN reporting that he will not win the starting LG job and will be a bench player.

Sure would've been nice to have this kid starting for us as opposed to being a cheerleader. His decision still makes no sense to me.

He was born and raised a Cowboys fan. He was in awe of Jerry Jones and tour Jerry took him on. Kid went through hell and made a decision that made him happy in the moment. Didn't think long-term of what was best for his pocket-book.

Can't knock the kid as he was in a very rough patch in his life where his head was spinning

Jerry showed him Jerrah World and we bought him lunch at Jimmy John's.

He could've come to Tampa and started on day one as he is way better than Smith.  And he'd be protecting the blind side of Famous Jameis.