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TDMMC Forums => Dolphins Discussion => Topic started by: Pappy13 on July 22, 2015, 05:53:23 pm



Title: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: Pappy13 on July 22, 2015, 05:53:23 pm
http://dailydolphin.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2015/07/22/dolphins-best-team-in-the-afc-according-to-harvard-analysis/

At first glance you might think WTF, but actually I think what this shows is that on paper the Dolphins have a solid team of players. What it doesn't account for is coaching, game day decisions, mental makeup, etc. Honestly I think just about anyone of us would say the Dolphins have underachieved the last couple of years and could have easily made the playoffs with a little better showing at the end of the year and in a couple of key games. The Dolphins have the talent, what they lack is between the ears. Whether or not that's on the players or the coaches can be debated.


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: MikeO on July 22, 2015, 07:21:12 pm
Strictly player wise....the Fins are 2 guards, 1 linebacker, and some decent secondary play away from being a very good team. (not counting the quality coaching )

Now that is a lot of overcome and the weaknesses at those areas are glaring. If the Fins 2 guards stink and Tannehill has no time to throw I don't care what the Harvard guy says, this team has no shot.


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: EDGECRUSHER on July 22, 2015, 09:06:04 pm
I've said for months now that there is no reason that this isn't an 11-12 win division winner except for our horrific coaching and we need 1 legit guard. Unfortunately, horrific coaching is tough to overcome, so is your QB getting sacked 50 times a year.


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: dolphins4life on July 22, 2015, 11:09:20 pm
Gotta be able to close out games.  This team could easily have been a first round bye team the last two seasons.


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: hordman on July 23, 2015, 08:00:57 am
What it doesn't account for is coaching, game day decisions, mental makeup, etc.

This is the rub.  My son was just telling me yesterday about this Harvard analysis and he was all excited they had MIA atop the AFCE.   They have the players, the personnel, etc.  It's just the execution and mental toughness on Sundays IMO.  They can hang with the best teams in the league, but it's about 3-5 crucial plays in those games that determine the outcome.

We will see again this season if the coaching has learned from past mistakes and makes the big leap.

Go Phins!!!!!!!!!!!!


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: masterfins on July 23, 2015, 12:44:16 pm
The addition of Suh should be good for at least one extra win by allowing the Dolphins to close out a game; and he should be able to keep another game from getting close so we Fans don't have to be biting off our fingernails wondering if the team will hang on.


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on July 23, 2015, 03:29:57 pm
I find these statistical analysis always interesting. 

They are using AV (a convoluted stat) to predict EOL and then using EOL to predict win W-L. 

The claim is when they back tested AV did do a good job at predicting EOL.  However, absent from the article is any claim that the back tested EOL derived from AV correlated into actual W-L. 


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: Fau Teixeira on July 23, 2015, 05:42:18 pm
at least they'll have a point 8  months from now to see if their hypothesis is correct


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: dolphins4life on July 23, 2015, 07:22:13 pm
Last three years all should have been playoff seasons, I think we can agree on that.


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: CF DolFan on July 24, 2015, 03:59:43 pm
Strictly player wise....the Fins are 2 guards, 1 linebacker, and some decent secondary play away from being a very good team. (not counting the quality coaching )

Now that is a lot of overcome and the weaknesses at those areas are glaring. If the Fins 2 guards stink and Tannehill has no time to throw I don't care what the Harvard guy says, this team has no shot.
I couldn't agree more. Have I ever mentioned that I'm very frustrated it's another year of not fully addressing the O-line?


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: MikeO on July 24, 2015, 05:02:55 pm
I couldn't agree more. Have I ever mentioned that I'm very frustrated it's another year of not fully addressing the O-line?

It's a joke. Paid the QB, went out and invested huge in the WR's ....but ignored the biggest problem for another year in a row which all those positions hinge on. Let's keep banking on Dallas Thomas ...lol


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: Pappy13 on July 25, 2015, 07:38:21 am
It's a joke. Paid the QB, went out and invested huge in the WR's ....but ignored the biggest problem for another year in a row which all those positions hinge on. Let's keep banking on Dallas Thomas ...lol
You can't say they ignored the problem last year when they signed their 2 starting tackles who by the way are not bad, so they only ignored 1 year in a row. I think Miami is hoping that Pouncey will be back to his pre-2014 self at center and with the center and tackle position starters in good shape could get away with poor to mediocre guard play. I'm sure they would have loved to improve their guard play as well, but I'm not convinced that the offensive line was the biggest issue heading into 2015 and you can't do everything. The defensive line had to be improved and Suh was kinda a big investment. Revamping their WR core didn't hurt either. C'mon MikeO give 'em a break. They are trying to fix it.


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: MikeO on July 25, 2015, 12:14:50 pm
You can't say they ignored the problem last year when they signed their 2 starting tackles who by the way are not bad, so they only ignored 1 year in a row. I think Miami is hoping that Pouncey will be back to his pre-2014 self at center and with the center and tackle position starters in good shape could get away with poor to mediocre guard play. I'm sure they would have loved to improve their guard play as well, but I'm not convinced that the offensive line was the biggest issue heading into 2015 and you can't do everything. The defensive line had to be improved and Suh was kinda a big investment. Revamping their WR core didn't hurt either. C'mon MikeO give 'em a break. They are trying to fix it.

They ignored the guards last year!!! Sure they signed Albert and drafted James. But guards matter! They had their arms twisted to sign Satelle and if Pouncey didn't get injured they would have never have signed him. And it would have been an nightmare with no Satelle last year


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: CF DolFan on July 27, 2015, 10:29:31 am
You can't say they ignored the problem last year when they signed their 2 starting tackles who by the way are not bad, so they only ignored 1 year in a row. I think Miami is hoping that Pouncey will be back to his pre-2014 self at center and with the center and tackle position starters in good shape could get away with poor to mediocre guard play. I'm sure they would have loved to improve their guard play as well, but I'm not convinced that the offensive line was the biggest issue heading into 2015 and you can't do everything. The defensive line had to be improved and Suh was kinda a big investment. Revamping their WR core didn't hurt either. C'mon MikeO give 'em a break. They are trying to fix it.
Pappy ... I think you've said this before. I'm not sure why you haven't seen the same things most other people have. Our O-line has been the weak spot for years and yet we continually go into the season "hoping" someone who has never shown anything will step up and suddenly become a decent player on the o-line. I really don't get it.  How do your QB continually lead the league in hits, pay him big money, and still not protect him? 


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: Spider-Dan on July 27, 2015, 11:12:08 am
What do you consider "doing something" about the problem?

In the last 5 years, Miami has spent 2 first-round, 1 second-round, and 2 third-round picks on the OL.  Their biggest free-agent signing last year was a Pro Bowl tackle.  There are still holes at LB, at CB, and other areas of the team.  The front office has to be able to juggle priorities.


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: masterfins on July 27, 2015, 11:41:32 am
You can't say they ignored the problem last year when they signed their 2 starting tackles who by the way are not bad, so they only ignored 1 year in a row. I think Miami is hoping that Pouncey will be back to his pre-2014 self at center and with the center and tackle position starters in good shape could get away with poor to mediocre guard play. I'm sure they would have loved to improve their guard play as well, but I'm not convinced that the offensive line was the biggest issue heading into 2015 and you can't do everything. The defensive line had to be improved and Suh was kinda a big investment. Revamping their WR core didn't hurt either. C'mon MikeO give 'em a break. They are trying to fix it.

I agree with you 100% on this Pappy.


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: MikeO on July 27, 2015, 02:21:45 pm
What do you consider "doing something" about the problem?

In the last 5 years, Miami has spent 2 first-round, 1 second-round, and 2 third-round picks on the OL.  Their biggest free-agent signing last year was a Pro Bowl tackle. 

The two 3rd round picks have done nothing in this league, can't give them credit for swings and misses. Dallas Thomas sucks and Turner couldn't crack the lineup last year even when all the guards were crappy and getting hurt. Line was destroyed with injuries and Turner couldn't even get some snaps at all.  After the 2013 season Miami needed 4 new starting o-linemen. Only Pouncey was staying. They added Albert and James...ok fine, GREAT MOVES! Kudos!!   If Pouncey doesn't get hurt last spring/summer they don't sign Satelle....what were the guards gonna look like last year with no Satelle?  Signing Colledge who was on his last legs and was only good for a month or so last year before falling apart, that was a disaster! But, ok fine. Rome wasn't built in a day. I mean they had a ton of money to use at the end of the 2014 free agency period and draft, but ok. Fine adding Albert and James was enough for that offseason, let's make it a 2 year process. I'm down with that.

Then in 2014 the o-line struggles again, and they did what this offseason? They are going into the season depending on Dallas Thomas finally being good? Sign a marginal back-up in Walton! Hope Turner becomes competent overnight?  They ignored the o-line this offseason. 

Now if Mathis falls into their lap for .50 on the dollar then great (I think the odds are slim and none of that happening) and ignore everything I just wrote. But aside from signing Mathis this o-line is still a HUGE question mark and a mess going into this year, especially with Albert now coming off major knee surgery.  So yes they haven't done enough to improve the o-line and needed to do more!


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: Spider-Dan on July 27, 2015, 03:51:56 pm
If your complaint is that "they aren't doing anything," then you absolutely must give them credit for "swings and misses."  Should we spend a first-rounder on the OL every year until we get it right?

Speaking of Satele, why haven't the Dolphins signed him as a backup?


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: Fau Teixeira on July 27, 2015, 03:56:21 pm
why hasn't anyone?


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: CF DolFan on July 27, 2015, 03:58:57 pm
If your complaint is that "they aren't doing anything," then you absolutely must give them credit for "swings and misses." 
Where did you get that from? My statement was "it's another year of not fully addressing the O-line" and that is what Mike was commenting on. Buying milk when you need milk and cereal doesn't feed anyone ... especially when much of the milk you keep buying is spoiled.


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: MikeO on July 27, 2015, 04:13:37 pm
If your complaint is that "they aren't doing anything," then you absolutely must give them credit for "swings and misses."  Should we spend a first-rounder on the OL every year until we get it right?

Speaking of Satele, why haven't the Dolphins signed him as a backup?

They signed JD Walton instead of Satelle. Same position, same role. Back-up center who can play some guard.. Walton is younger 

And when you have 4 glaring holes on your starting o-line and NO depth whatsoever after the 2013 season.. and you sign Albert and James...great. Job isn't done though. Far from it. They should have used some money to sign a vet guard (Colledge doesn't count he was on his last legs literally) who has something in the tank. THEN, take some mid-round swings on young guards in the draft and hope one hits. The way the Fins handled this has been bad.  I mean they can still sign Mathis and this all goes away over night...but I don't see that. Hope I am wrong and they make a push for him


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: Spider-Dan on July 27, 2015, 05:06:47 pm
Where did you get that from? My statement was "it's another year of not fully addressing the O-line" and that is what Mike was commenting on.
Is the complaint that the front office isn't trying hard enough, or that their attempts aren't panning out?  They are two very different positions; the first is effort, while the second is competence.

I think the Dolphins have expended sufficient resources trying to fix the OL, and it is appropriate for them to direct resources to other areas of need for a while.  The 2014 OL (when healthy) was a significant improvement from 2013, and this team has too many other needs to be worried about quality depth in the OL; if Albert/James/Pouncey go down for a large stretch then the season is done, and that's just the way it is.  If Grimes or Jenkins or Reshad go down then we're in the same situation anyway.


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: MikeO on July 29, 2015, 08:52:22 am
Good News for the Fins o-line is Branden Albert will not start training camp (which opens today) on PUP.


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: CF DolFan on July 29, 2015, 09:01:51 am
Good News for the Fins o-line is Branden Albert will not start training camp (which opens today) on PUP.
I think most off us saw this coming. Moving our RT to the left will hinder him but at least we have a center and a high paid QB. Hopefully our QB will survive until we get a front office that understands how the game is played.


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: MikeO on July 29, 2015, 09:27:14 am
I think most off us saw this coming. Moving our RT to the left will hinder him but at least we have a center and a high paid QB. Hopefully our QB will survive until we get a front office that understands how the game is played.

As of last week (per reports) the thought was Albert would start training camp on PUP, so this is good news he will be able to "go", even on a limited basis, today when camp opens


Title: Re: Harvard analysis has the Dolphins as the best team in the AFC.
Post by: CF DolFan on July 29, 2015, 10:09:58 am
As of last week (per reports) the thought was Albert would start training camp on PUP, so this is good news he will be able to "go", even on a limited basis, today when camp opens
Sorry ... I read that completely wrong ... LOL. I saw it as sarcasm  and put in a comma.

Good News for the Fins o-line is Branden Albert will not start training camp (which opens today)

 (insert comma here as to say he will start on the PUP) on PUP