The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

Since there are a few of us on these sites now, why not help each other out?

Justin Forsett would be a good mid value player this week.  He's coming of a huge game yardage wise, is going up against Cleveland who has the 2nd worst rushing defense in the league and all of BAL WRs are hurt, so they will be leaning heavy on the run.

Le'Veon Bell is a must start.  Going against SD who has the 4th worst rushing defense in the league, and no Big Ben so they will be run heavy.

SLEEPER OF THE WEEK:  Kendall Wright and Marcus Mariotta.  Buffalo has given up 10 TDs to the passing game this season, tied for 2nd worst in the league.  Wright is Mariotta's favorite target.

I had trouble formulating a lineup this week.  I was intrigued by Mariota, but too scared to jump on.  Went with Peyton instead.

I also took LeVeon Bell, but I don't trust Justin Forsett.  Went with the value pick of Boobie Dixon at RB2, and Eddie Lacy in my Flex.

My sleeper this week is Travis Benjamin.  Watch out!  Baltimore gave up 7 TD's to WR's in the past 3 games, and was responsible for AJ Green's 227 yard, 2 TD performance 2 weeks ago.

Good stuff, I might have to change one of my WR to Benjamin.

I went with Eli over Peyton, but it was a tough call. 

Okay, I made some more changes...this is what my lineups look like (I'm playing 2 tournaments)

QB - Brady/E.Manning
RB - Bell/Bell
RB - Forsett/Freeman
WR - Fitzgerald/Thomas
WR - Benjamin/Benjamin
WR - Wright/Wright
TE - Bennett/Gates
K - Brown/Santos
D - Broncos/Broncos

the system isn't rigged - seems like you don't really understand the story.

I've made one lineup so far, might jump into another one before the end of today.

QB - P. Manning
RB - L. Bell
RB - B. Dixon
WR - T. Benjamin
WR - J. Edelman
WR - L. Fitzgerald
TE - A. Gates
Flex - A. Morris
DT - Chiefs

Plus I have $2200 left on the table.

^Are you in love with the Chiefs for a defense?  I just don't trust their secondary, it's the worst in the league.  I feel really good about Denver's defense against the Raiders.

Other than that, our lineups are pretty similar.

I think that this is the problem.  This is how they're using the inside information against you.   I assume that your lineups are similar to a lot of people. 

Let's say that there are 10 teams in your league.
If you pick against the grain and you're wrong, you lose.  If you pick against the grain and you're right you win the money of ten other people.
If you pick with the grain and you're wrong, you lose.  If you pick with the grain and you're right, you still have to be right enough to beat the 9 other people.

There are 9 variable.  The chances of people having the exact same lineup is slim.  Tenshot and I might have SIMILAR lineups, but his choices of Forsett, Wright, Bennett, etc make a difference.  Besides, I'm in leagues with hundreds of thousands of others where you have to finish in the top 100K to win.  Don't need to beat everyone, just have to get the best 9 guys.

Also, I like that DraftKings doesn't make you pick a kicker.  That, to me, is the biggest difference.  Kickers are a wild card and unpredictable, but can make a difference between win and lose.

I picked them because of their matchup against Chicago, but now that I'm reading that Cutler is likely going to play, I swapped to the Giants at home vs SF.  They are ranked 6th in PPG and SF is dead last in OPPG.

^^^Good choice, I was going back and forth between them and DEN.

The only reason I stayed away from Denver is because they are on the road, and their offense has struggled.  I can see that game becoming a shootout.

What do you think of playing Owen Daniels this week?  He's pretty unreliable, but Oakland is getting destroyed by TEs this season.

I considered it for a moment, and then I imagined how often Peyton throws to his TE's since Julius Thomas left.  I imagine Daniels has like 2 catches for 24 yards and a TD - at best.  I just figured you could do better elsewhere, too risky for me.

It is an attractive matchup, though.

Had to scratch my head a little bit here. Being on the road and having a struggling offense...wouldn't that indicate the exact opposite of a shootout?

^^ yes, but Oakland's defense is crapola.  The best medicine for a struggling offense is a struggling defense. 

I'm going to set the bone down after this, but I'll give it one more shake here. The reason you didn't want to use the Denver defense is because "they are on the road, and their offense has struggled.  I can see that game becoming a shootout." Not sure quite how you correlate their offensive struggles with their defensive potential for allowing a shootout, but ok. Then you said:


This is making my head hurt even more, as Oakland's defense being crapola really has minimal effect on Denver's defense. Similarly, Denver's offense improving due to the "good medicine" of Oakland's crapola-esque defense surely couldn't have any negative effects on Denver's defense.

You did realize that we were talking about Denver's defense, right?

Okay, I'm in 2 tournaments this week.  Here are my lineups:

This one is a little out of the box, but we'll see what happens-
QB - R. Tannehill
RB - D. Freeman
RB - A. Foster
WR - A. Green
WR - S. Smith
WR - A. Hurns
TE - A. Gates
K - D. Carpenter
D - MIA

This one is a little more on point with the usual lineup -
QB - A. Dalton
RB - D. Freeman
RB - A. Foster
WR - S. Smith
WR - L. Fitzgerald
WR - A. Johnson
TE - A. Gates
K - J. Tucker
D - ARI

Thoughts?

Is that Steve Smith on your rosters? If so, you might want to consider a replacement. Smith has some microfractures in his back that he's dealing with right now.

Everything I've read shows he'll be playing this week, unless something has changed since yesterday.

I'm showing that he's still questionable, but even if he does play, there is no way the guy will be anywhere close to full strength out there.

Ya, I know there is a big risk there and I'll be keeping my eye on his status.  He is at such a low price though and has the potential to put up big numbers against your 49ers this week.  Then again, BAL is going coast to coast for that game. 

I went in there this week and started tinkering.  I couldn't find a lineup I really liked.  I might skip this week.

But I agree with Sunstroke.  Get rid of Steve Smith.  I'd get rid of Andre Johnson too, but don't know if you can afford it.

Now I felt inspired.  I joined 2 $1 leagues this week, so we'll see how this goes:

Lineup 1: Sunday Lock
QB   Andy Dalton   
RB   Arian Foster   
RB   Charcandrick West   
WR   Julian Edelman   
WR   DeAndre Hopkins   
WR   Donte Moncrief   
TE   Antonio Gates   
FLEX   Dion Lewis   
DST   Lions   

Lineup 2: Thursday Lock
QB   Andy Dalton
RB   Devonta Freeman
RB   Mark Ingram
WR   Julian Edelman
WR   A.J. Green
WR   Willie Snead
TE   Tyler Eifert
FLEX   Charcandrick West
DST   Packers

You have Edelman in both, I hope that works out for you

Draft Kings scoring is PPR.  Edelman is an absolute beast.

So last week, after a great Thursday start, I flopped horribly on Sunday.  I've modified my tactics a bit, and I'm not competing in those monstrous 120k-entry leagues anymore.  Increasing my opportunity to win by playing in 5-person leagues this week for $1 entries.

Anyway, this is my lineup for this week:

QB   Carson Palmer
RB   Todd Gurley
RB   LeSean McCoy
WR   Martavis Bryant
WR   Jarvis Landry
WR   Willie Snead
TE   Antonio Gates
FLEX   DeAndre Hopkins
DST   Seahawks