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TDMMC Forums => Dolphins Discussion => Topic started by: Dolfanalyst on December 04, 2016, 09:13:02 am



Title: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Dolfanalyst on December 04, 2016, 09:13:02 am
...is today.

Lest I be accused of hyperbole, consider that the Dolphins are experiencing the following at the present time:

1) They haven't made the playoffs in years.

2) They are currently the sixth seed in the AFC in the playoff race, hanging on to playoff contention by a mere thread if you will.

3) They just paid a ton of money to a new head coach whose primary selling point was his ability to coax every bit of potential possible out of Ryan Tannehill, which he's been successful in doing to date.

4) They're facing the league's best run defense, on a team also on the fringe of playoff contention, in a very meaningful game.

That puts this very important game largely on the shoulders of Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins' passing game.

Now, the Dolphins could very well lose this game, even if Ryan Tannehill does his job and has a very good game.  His career definition won't be determined by whether the Dolphins win or lose, but rather by how he plays.

Either way, however, this is the kind of game that distinguishes the game manager from the game winner at the QB position in the NFL.

If you have a game manager at QB, you stand far less of a chance of winning this game than if you have a game winner.

Which kind of QB will Ryan Tannehill be, now that he's gained the tutelage of a coach who perhaps has the ability to help him realize his potential?

Games like this one today will tell us.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on December 04, 2016, 09:34:26 am
One game regular season game does not define a player.  Not Tannehill, not any player. 


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Run Ricky Run on December 04, 2016, 09:37:24 am
He could light it up this week and lay an egg next week. This week wouldn't have defined anything.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Dolfanalyst on December 04, 2016, 09:37:29 am
One game regular season game does not define a player.  Not Tannehill, not any player. 


You've supplied an opposing position with absolutely no rationale for it.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Dolfanalyst on December 04, 2016, 09:41:16 am
He could light it up this week and lay an egg next week. This week wouldn't have defined anything.

True, but next week represents a completely different context, and therefore a completely different meaning.

Again, it's the big-picture context of this game (outlined in the OP) that makes it hold the meaning it does with regard to Tannehill's career in my opinion.

If the playoffs are riding on whether the passing game can perform, the passing game needs to perform.  Next week you might be able to win with Ajayi.  This week that's very unlikely.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: MyGodWearsAHoodie on December 04, 2016, 09:54:40 am
You've supplied an opposing position with absolutely no rationale for it.

Your rational is rubbish.  Name one player who is in the hall of fame that if you removed a single regular season game from his resume would no longer be hall of fame worthy.  Name one player who played multiple seasons who was cut on the basis of a single game's performance.

You posted utter garbage and nonsense there is absolutely no reason for me to provide rationale for disputing comments as moronic as yours.  All you post proves is how utterly little you know about football. It is shameful that you constant posting of utter nonsense drowns out the intelligent discussion that was much more common before you polluted this site.

One game does not define a player.  Period.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Dolfanalyst on December 04, 2016, 10:51:10 am
Name one player who is in the hall of fame that if you removed a single regular season game from his resume would no longer be hall of fame worthy.

I can name many quarterbacks whose capacity to play at the level required of Tannehill for the Dolphins to be likely to win today would remove them from the Hall of Fame if they didn't have that capacity.

The point is that today's game goes a long way toward indicating if Tannehill indeed has that capacity.

The rest of your post is equivalent to "if you can't attack the evidence, attack the witness," and therefore indicates your insecurity in your own position.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Spider-Dan on December 04, 2016, 02:02:41 pm
So if Tannehill lights it up this week but loses next week, and the week after that, and the week after that, it's all OK because his Career Is Already Defined?

Absolute nonsense.  This is a Career-Defining Game... unless he wins, in which case next week will be the Career-Defining Game.  And so on.

Allow me to refresh your memory: in week 16 of the 2013 season, MIA was in a 2-way tie for the #6 seed at 8-6, had just come off of a 24-20 over NE, and had they won either of their final two games, would have made the playoffs.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Run Ricky Run on December 04, 2016, 02:16:07 pm
In typical tannehill fashion he fucking blows.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Baba Booey on December 04, 2016, 02:17:22 pm
In typical tannehill fashion he fucking blows.
Yeah its his fault the defense hasn't stopped anyone and Franks misses a FG

Career defining game...my god some of you people are so over the top with your words. It's laughable


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Run Ricky Run on December 04, 2016, 02:20:51 pm
Yeah its his fault the defense hasn't stopped anyone and Franks misses a FG

Career defining game...my god some of you people are so over the top with your words. It's laughable

Lol well if franks had made the fg lol. I guess it would be 24-3 lol. 81 yards this half.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: CF DolFan on December 04, 2016, 02:22:53 pm
Haha ... yes this game will define Ryan Tannehills career.  ::)


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Baba Booey on December 04, 2016, 02:32:55 pm
Lol well if franks had made the fg lol. I guess it would be 24-3 lol. 81 yards this half.

Point being the outcome of this game has nothing to do with Ryan Tannehill's career.

Some of you so called fans relish when they lose and are behind and say the dumbest things I have ever read ever


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Run Ricky Run on December 04, 2016, 02:56:23 pm
Gannon laying into the abortion we have at qb


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Dolfanalyst on December 04, 2016, 04:16:31 pm
I'm sorry I didn't make the point more clear here.

The variables surrounding this game for me represented a career hurdle that I've yet to see Tannehill clear, and after today he still hasn't cleared.

At some point he's going to have to play very well in 1) a game with a lot of meaning and importance, 2) against a team with a good defense, when 3) the run game isn't likely to sustain the offense and he therefore has to carry it.

In other words, he has to win a clutch game, to simply show he has that capacity.  Through the first four years of his career, he failed to demonstrate that in my opinion, despite having some opportunities.

Now, he can play at an average level (i.e., well above how he played today) in games like that and still be a game manager type that can help the Dolphins make the playoffs.  But if so, he's going to need an unlikely level of talent around him to pull that off.

In other words, games like these determine the amount of talent the team has to put around Tannehill to be highly competitive in the league.  If you have a game-winner at QB, you need less talent.  If you have a game manager, you need more.

Today, unfortunately, he was a game-loser, and if that's how he's going to play in clutch games that call for high-quality play by the QB, obviously there may be a big problem.

They say big players play big in big games, and that ain't what happened today.  Not even close.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Dolfanalyst on December 04, 2016, 04:22:06 pm
Allow me to refresh your memory: in week 16 of the 2013 season, MIA was in a 2-way tie for the #6 seed at 8-6, had just come off of a 24-20 over NE, and had they won either of their final two games, would have made the playoffs.

That's precisely what I meant above.  Tannehill's QB ratings in those two games were in the 40s.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Spider-Dan on December 04, 2016, 04:22:50 pm
At some point he's going to have to play very well in 1) a game with a lot of meaning and importance, 2) against a team with a good defense, when 3) the run game isn't likely to sustain the offense and he therefore has to carry it.

In other words, he has to win a clutch game, to simply show he has that capacity.  Through the first four years of his career, he failed to demonstrate that in my opinion, despite having some opportunities.
Again, week 15 of 2013:  7-6 Dolphins hosting the 10-3 Patriots, needing a win to keep pace for the #6 seed.

Tannehill goes 25/37 for 312yds/3TD/0INT, for a 120.3 passer rating.  He throws 2 fourth quarter TDs, including a game-winning TD to come from behind with 1:15 remaining.  MIA rushes for less than 100 yards as a team.

The game you are looking for already exists.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Dolfanalyst on December 04, 2016, 04:51:06 pm
Again, week 15 of 2013:  7-6 Dolphins hosting the 10-3 Patriots, needing a win to keep pace for the #6 seed.

Tannehill goes 25/37 for 312yds/3TD/0INT, for a 120.3 passer rating.  He throws 2 fourth quarter TDs, including a game-winning TD to come from behind with 1:15 remaining.  MIA rushes for less than 100 yards as a team.

The game you are looking for already exists.

One would think, and yes Tannehill did play well that day, but New England's defense that year was in fact not very good.  The defenses he faced the following two weeks (Buffalo and New York's), when he played very poorly, were actually a decent bit better.

Moreover, the loss today was in the Gase era, which suggests that Tannehill's issues in games with meaning and importance are not a function of coaching, but of something within him.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Spider-Dan on December 04, 2016, 06:41:31 pm
You are ignoring the "important games" in which he does well and only focusing on the ones in which he does poorly, so your conclusion is predictable.

Furthermore, you have identified as an "important game" an opponent ranked in the bottom 10 in offense.  Wouldn't a more important game (for a QB) be one against a high-ranked offense, where the MIA offense should be expected to have to put up a lot of points?  The fact that the MIA defense let a low-ranked offense score three TDs in the first half is not something the QB should plan for.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Baba Booey on December 04, 2016, 06:45:48 pm
You are ignoring the "important games" in which he does well and only focusing on the ones in which he does poorly, so your conclusion is predictable.


Thank you for pointing that out!


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Dolfanalyst on December 04, 2016, 06:49:00 pm
You are ignoring the "important games" in which he does well and only focusing on the ones in which he does poorly, so your conclusion is predictable.
The point was about important games against good defenses, in which the QB would likely have to play like one of the league's best to surmount the opposition.

Again, the distinction here is between the game-winner and the game manager.  The game manager is likely to play well against poorer defenses, and play more poorly against good ones.

I'm focusing on the games he's played well and the ones he's played poorly, but like usual, you aren't reading the entirety of what I'm posting.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Dolfanalyst on December 04, 2016, 06:49:42 pm
Since 2004, there have been 841 games between weeks 13 and 17 of the regular season in which a team with a winning record played another team.

In other words, there have been over 800 games in which a team with a winning record played a meaningful game, as games 13 through 17 of the regular season are roughly when the playoff race heats up each year.

In only 27 of those games (3.2%) was that team with the winning record beaten by 28 or more points.

In only 7 of those games (0.8%) was the team with the winning record beaten by 32 or more points.

What the Dolphins did today happens very, very rarely, and suggests that they likely have no business being considered a legitimate playoff team.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Spider-Dan on December 04, 2016, 06:51:52 pm
Again, the distinction here is between the game-winner and the game manager.  The game manager is likely to play well against poorer defenses, and play more poorly against good ones.
You have it precisely backwards.

Against a team with a good defense but a bad offense, a game manager simply takes care of the ball, keeps the game close, and hopes for a play by the defense or special teams.

Against a team with a high-powered offense (and ANY defense), you need your offense to go out and score points to keep pace.  Simply managing the game will get you blown out.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Run Ricky Run on December 04, 2016, 06:52:02 pm
Tannehill is a loser and will never make the playoffs. The same people who are defending him are the same people who appointed henne and kept making excuses for him every year. If tannehill was released no good team would pick him up. He is a backup qb. He lacks the intangibles to make him a winning NFL qb.


Title: Re: Ryan Tannehill's Career-Defining Game
Post by: Dolfanalyst on December 04, 2016, 07:00:56 pm
You have it precisely backwards.

Against a team with a good defense but a bad offense, a game manager simply takes care of the ball, keeps the game close, and hopes for a play by the defense or special teams.

Against a team with a high-powered offense (and ANY defense), you need your offense to go out and score points to keep pace.  Simply managing the game will get you blown out.

The point is about what can likely be said about a QB's ability as a function of 1) the importance of the game, and 2) the strength of the defense he's facing.

If a QB tends to play well against poorer defenses in important games, while tending to play poorly against good defenses in important games, what does that likely say about his ability?