The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

Fourth play of the game. 2nd and 3. Handoff to Devonta Freeman who is tripped by the turf monster half a yard shy of the line of scrimmage, behind the offensive line who have pushed the Dolphins back. Raekwon Davis reaches past his opponent and touches Freeman while he's getting up. No one appears to notice and Freeman gets up and barrels his way for 4 yards and the first down on the play.

From the live action and slow-mo I was 100% sure he was down by contact. After stepping through it frame-by-frame just now, I'm going to say he almost certainly managed to get his knee (and forearm) off the turf maybe 3 frames (5 hundredths of a second) before being touched. It's a bit hard to tell because the part of the knee touching the turf isn't in the frame anymore and so it becomes a bit of a judgement based on the movement of the runner's legs (everything but the part touching the turf is visible). Certainly, a frame or two after the touch, the knee is off the ground, so it's a very, very close call regardless. I think the refs got it right and, even if they didn't, I don't think it would have been overturned. Which is most definitely NOT how I felt watching the game and replay originally.

So people said Brian Flores should have challenged a Ravens play in the first quarter:



I got a few problems with this.

1) It's interesting how everybody on this board assumed the call was incorrect, yet once they analyzed it on replay, they see that it was correct.

2) Even if it was incorrect, I can totally see why you wouldn't waste a challenge on a play that would have set up third down and one, especially this early in the game.

3) How come nobody is saying that fyo is secretly a Ravens fan?  I analyze calls the exact same way and I get called a Brady or Patriots fan.

Next we have the catch that was overturned.  I did not see a replay where the ball touched the ground.  Did the ball indeed touch the ground?

If it did, that means Flores correctly did not challenge a play, and correctly did challenge one.

I honestly don't have a problem with Flores.  Success in the NFL is far more dependent on your opponents than you.  Don't forget, Miami has lost three plays on the last play of the game.  They are literally three plays away from being 6-4         

Don't forget, Miami has lost three plays on the last play of the game.  They are literally three plays away from being 6-4         

And had those plays gone in such a way to make this team 6-4, they'd be no better than they are at present, which is poor.

The Dolphins are 26th in the league in scoring margin, 28th in the league in team DVOA, and poor in passer rating differential.  If they were 6-4 they'd be very much a paper tiger 6-4 that would be expected to lose regularly from there on.  Vegas certainly wouldn't be determining their point spreads primarily on the basis of that 6-4 record, I can guarantee you that.

That does not mean jack.  All that matters is winning in the NFL

In the post you quoted I noted that the scenario you had set up was one in which the Dolphins would be 6-4 but nonetheless be expected to lose regularly from there on.  So yes, I'm aware of the importance of winning.  The point is that the 60% win percentage wouldn't be sustainable because it wouldn't be associated with the strongest predictors of winning.

In other words, this isn't a team that's playing at a 60% win percentage level and "fluking" its way to losses.  This is a team that -- if it were winning at a 60% clip -- would be "fluking" its way to wins.

So people said Brian Flores should have challenged a Ravens play in the first quarter:



I got a few problems with this.

1) It's interesting how everybody on this board assumed the call was incorrect, yet once they analyzed it on replay, they see that it was correct.

2) Even if it was incorrect, I can totally see why you wouldn't waste a challenge on a play that would have set up third down and one, especially this early in the game.

3) How come nobody is saying that fyo is secretly a Ravens fan?  I analyze calls the exact same way and I get called a Brady or Patriots fan.

Next we have the catch that was overturned.  I did not see a replay where the ball touched the ground.  Did the ball indeed touch the ground?

If it did, that means Flores correctly did not challenge a play, and correctly did challenge one.

I honestly don't have a problem with Flores.  Success in the NFL is far more dependent on your opponents than you.  Don't forget, Miami has lost three plays on the last play of the game.  They are literally three plays away from being 6-4         

We're getting sidetracked anyway.  What about the challenges?

And why isn't fyo now considered a Ravens fan?