The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

1) Why is it taking so long?  There are still two districts that have not been officially called.  The current makeup right now is 220-213 in favor of the GOP.  The Senate is 50-49 in favor of the Democrats.  The current indication is that it will be 222-213 in the House in favor of the GOP

2) What would have constituted a red wave?  Why did the GOP think there was going to be one?  Was it SOLELY because Biden has done such a horrible job and things are so bad right now?  Biden won by 7 million votes in 2020.  Looking back, it seems ridiculous to think there would have been a red wave. 

3) Why is Trump attacking DeSantis?  It's not good for the top two candidates in a party to be attacking each other.  DeSantis DID achieve a red wave in Florida.  If he ran for president in 2024, I wonder if he would win in a red wave in the electoral college.  DeSantis has not officially declared his candidacy for the presidency yet.

1) The laws governing over the counting of ballots in various states/districts are readily available to anyone who has access to Google. Don't be lazy...

2) The incumbent party usually loses a ton of seats during the midterm. This time...not so much. Considering where the economy is, I expected a lot more seats flipped to the GOP.

3) Trump attacks everybody...period...always. It is his one and only strategy.

What does a ton mean in this sense?  The Republicans gained about a dozen seats. Would a ton in this season mean three dozen?

It's not just the economy that is bad, it's the border that is horrible, too.  Biden has run this country into the ground.

In a year with inflation like it is we could have been expecting like 60 seats to swing and the Senate.

However republicans overplayed their hand with the abortion decision and attacking LGBT people constantly. Turns out most people don’t want to live in a theocracy.

The economy was going to go through hard times and it will recover, no matter who was president we would be in a similar situation.

The border nonsense is just right wing fear of immigration because demographic shifts don’t favor republicans.

Immigrants don’t commit crimes at high rates and every legitimate study shows that immigration is good for a country. Drugs don’t come through the border they come through ports.

Different laws in different places allow for different timelines, different technologies to be used, some places have automatic hand-recounts if things are close.  


There isn't an answer, really.  Steve Bannon said the GOP could win 100 seats.  In general, the president's party loses a lot of seats, no matter what.  And when the party in power oversees a down economy, it's even worse.  Plus, with gerrymandering and all these other things, there were way more districts for GOP to overtake Dem spots than the other way around.  It didn't happen for lots of reasons, but Abortion laws and running actual insane people instead of normal humans cost the GOP.  Say what you will about the Dems, but we weed out our crazy people in the primaries.  Our candidates are electable.


Trump doesn't give one shit about the GOP and he has no ideology.  He doesn't care about anything -- ANYTHING -- except his own benefit.  Therefore, anyone or anything that openly supports him, no matter how vile, will have his support.  Anyone who opposes him or poses a risk to him or fails to praise him will get attacked.  This is true in every case, even his own cabinet.  His own VP. Desantis.  GOP Leadership.  His family.  Retired legacy politicians.  Families of national heroes.  It doesn't matter.

Trump doesn't give one shit about Desantis and will absolutely take him out in any way he can, unless Desantis can directly help Trump the individual.

Honestly this is a great question. Florida, Texas, California etc have a much larger voting poplutaion and can turn results in one day. There needs to one universal way of voting as it has become apparent some states are super slow to report and all that does is increase public questioning of the results.  In my opinion anything that may give off the impression of inappropriate activity should be eliminated to increase public confidence.

40 percent on the left and the other 40 percent on the right will vote for a cucumber if it ran for their party. The 20 percent in the middle have many different reasons for voting. Considering those who are far right and won but by much smaller margins than was expected, I believe Trump's brash attitude turns off many of those in the middle regardless of the economy.  It appears DeSantis was able to not only attract those in the middle but actually some on the other side of the isle which is the answer to your next question. 

Trump only cares about Trump when it comes to winning the election and he knows DeSantis is a huge threart to his poupularity. Trump's policies ae good but Trump the person is selfish and can be very assholish. 

^ I pretty much agree with CF, aside from Trump's policy's being good, but you can't ask for everything.

A lot of the first question also has to do with early ballots / mail-in ballots and when to start counting them.  They could theoretically be counted ahead of time and info released right away, but that's not allowed in some of these places.  I don't really think there's a legitimate argument for why it isn't allowed, but I think the bullshit argument is that the data could get out and affect the results, I guess?   There is a movement to delegitimize and discredit early and mail-in voting.  It's likely due to this -- make it seem cumbersome and unreliable to make less of it.

Edited for the sake of pure honesty...

Usually, there isn't such a huge gap in the popular vote between the two candidates in the last election.

Also, what CF says does make sense in DeSantis' case.

It doesn't however, explain why Trump won in 2016

Stop looking for explanations all the time. Things just happen. Chaos theory embrace it.

A lot of factors contributed to Trump’s win in 2016 just like a lot of factors contributed to his loss 2 years ago.

Trump lost the popular vote first time and the second time even more people voted. People in safe blue states who sat out 2016 voted against him in 2020. Biden ran up the popular vote in blue states.

Look man within 15 minutes of CNN declaring Biden the winner there was a massive party in downtown Denver and virtually every major city.

It’s easy to miss, but a majority of this country hates Donald Trump.

Walker has pulled ahead in the run-off with 76 percent of the vote in. 

Usually, when a candidate pulls ahead this late in the count he stays ahead for good.

Looks like we got 50-50 split.

It's interesting.  This means most of the third party voters favored Herschel Walker

Edit:  I'm wrong.  Warnock just surged back into the lead.  

I'm not making any more predictions

It appears that Warnock has won the seat.

Man, talk about a red wave......NOT!!!!!!!

The Vampire beat the Werewolf...nice.

^^^ In a state where the governor easily won his election Walker couldn't squeak out a win even given a second chance. In all honesty I think Walker being a Trump guy cost him a lot of votes that Gov Kemp received. If the GOP doesn't find a way to stop him from running without tearing the party apart then Joe or whoever will easily see 4 more years.

I think it was a combination of two things. One, yes...he is a Trump Guy, and two, he is arguably the stupidest human being I have ever seen run for a public office. It really doesn't matter what party you're in. When Herschel opens his mouth, his idiocy is undeniable.

Surely some people maybe but I don't think that's the biggest issue because there are plenty of stupid people in office from both parties. I question if some even have triple digit IQs let alone a clue.

Walker was a particularly bad candidate.

I don't really attribute that to Trump.  I think Trump helped Walker win the primary...that's the problem with Trump.  He elevates these bozos in the primary stage that can't win in the general.

Come on...Herschel really wanted people to believe that the "bad air" floats over to America from China. If you can come up with a more idiotic candidate....please present him for review.

...and this doesn't take into account his holding a weapon on his spouse or knocking up multiple women, paying for their abortions and then claiming to be pro-life.

Well,

1) Maybe Republicans comment more often on YouTube videos than Democrats do.

2) Maybe Republicans participate in polls more often than Democrats do.

3) Florida is still a huge outlier. 

Polls are weighted, but there's a lot of speculation.

If you're just calling land-lines and asking people who they're going to vote for, that's going to skew Republican.  That's because older people with land-lines are more likely to vote GOP.

If you're going to survey people on TikTok, you're going to get a different answer.

So, that's where pollsters are struggling.  Polling is optional.  People can ignore the phone.  People can refuse to answer once they realize it's a poll.  You can do some amount of statistical modeling comparing pre-election polls to election data and then weighting your polls accordingly, but that's where we're at.

I have not read a single pro-Biden comment on Youtube.

I have read thousands of anti-vaccine comments on Youtube

I have read thousands of anti-Biden comments on Youtube

people don't vote on youtube

There are so many things wrong with judging youtube comments.

I'll just name a few, but there are so, so many.

YouTube is showing you things based on an algorithm -- so, you're likely to be sent towards videos that you're going to engage with.  Also, pro-vaccine people don't have to go on Youtube.  We don't get our medical info from there.  Scientific dissent doesn't happen on that platform.  Conspiracy theory does.

Comment sections are filled with trolls and bots.  That drives clicks and engagements, which brings money to advertisers.



You're just in an echo-chamber of your own ideas.  And we all suffer from that.  But go read your average comment section on Reddit.  They shit all over the GOP on a daily basis.

But also, there isn't a cult of Biden.  Even those of us who voted for him and continue to like him doesn't treat him as a messiah figure.  We don't have his name on our flags, we don't value him over the ideas he's supposed to represent.  Nobody is painting Joe Biden flying on an Eagle or whatever crazy shit you saw from Trump worship over the last few years.  And we're certainly not on Youtube talking about how much we love Biden.  He is a public servant, but we don't give a shit otherwise.

This reminds of the phase, "Empirical vs Anecdotal"

Youtube comments are anecdotal

I don't go to YouTube for medical or political advice. Ever...   I DO. however, occasionally go to YouTube for bitchin music videos though...

I've seen other videos but I only go to Youtube for "How to" videos. You can freaking learn almost anything on there.

^^^ OK, I admit, I once learned a wicked green chile enchilada casserole on YouTube. It was fucking delicious.

...but mainly music vids. ;-)