The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

And Jalen Hurts was even a second rounder ...  In our very long search for a franchise qb the discussion always comes up just how important is it to you have a great 1st round QB or should you build a team around a decent guy. It' about then that someone pops up to explain tom Brady was found in the 4th round as if that's completely normal.  Considering most of the top picks below  are expected to be there for years to come I'd have to say the first rounder gives you a much better chance at landing a good one.


AFC
Patrick Mahomes - 1st Round
Josh Allen - 1st Round
Joe Burrow - 1st Round
Trevor Lawerence - 1st Round

NFC
Daniel Jones - 1st Round
Jalen Hurts - 2nd Round
Dak Prescott - 4th Round (Solid team around QB)
Brock Purdy - 7th Round (The epitome of having a team to just plug in a decent QB not too mention the number one defense in the league.)

The Bradys and Wilsons of the world are anomalies. It’s hard to get one in the first round and there will be as many misses as hits but it is the best chance to deliver the all important “franchise quarterback”

I think this is the case of professional scouts (for 31 teams) overlooking several very important physical and character traits. With all due respect to Bridgewater/Skylar, if Miami had Purdy to step in when Tua was injured, Miami would be playing this week, and Buffalo would be crying in their beer.

32 teams overlooked Purdy for 6 rounds.

SF's scouting department obviously didn't think Purdy's "very important physical and character traits" were worth spending the 220th pick of the draft on, because they chose DT Kalia Davis with that pick.  (He went on IR in August.)  They also didn't think Purdy was worth the 221st pick, as they preferred CB Tariq Castro-Fields with that selection.  (He did not make the 53-man roster.)

Congrats on the find and all, but let's not pretend that SF's front office knew what they were getting and elected to let him sit around until literally the last pick of the draft.

SF identified him much earlier, but they had the chosen one (Lance) ready to start, an excellent backup (Garoppolo) as the #2, and a serviceable #3 QB with Sudfeld. They took Purdy "despite" not needing a QB, because they liked his track record at Iowa State. Then, after being impressed by Purdy at camp, they kept him instead of Sudfeld.

The rest, Niner-hater, is history...

This is why you see guys like Zach Wilson and Sam Darnold go in the Top 3 even though talent wise they aren't even 3rd rounders. Fortunately for us, the Jets have been cursed with having no good QB options to draft during the years they have a Top 3 pick. We had the intelligence to suck during an amazing QB draft, led by the unstoppable Jordan Love.

What percentage of teams that didn’t make the playoffs had first round QBs? In order to make the case that a first round QB is essential for success you must show that this differentiates the good teams from the bad teams.  As it is most bad teams also have a first round QB.  The fact that almost half of the teams still in the playoffs didn’t draft a QB in the first round strongly suggests you don’t need a first round QB for success.

NFC East:
Eagles - Jalen Hurts 2nd
Giants - Jones 1st
Cowboys - Dak 4th
Commanders - Wents 1st

NFC North:
Bears - Fields 1st
Vikings - Cousins 4th
Lions - Goff 1st
Packers - Rodgers and soon to be Love - Both 1st

NFC South:
Bucs - Brady, we all know not 1st round
Saints - Dalton 2nd
Panthers - Darnold and Mayfield were 1st, forget who they have right now
Niners - Trey Lance 1st, Jimmy G 2nd, Brock last pick of the draft

AFC East:
Bills - Allen 1st
Jets - Wilson 1st
Dolphins - Tua 1st
Patriots - Jones 1st

AFC North:
Browns - DeShaun 1st
Steelers - Pickett - 1st
Bengals - Burrow 1st
Ravens - Jackson 1st

AFC South:
Titans - Tannehill 1st
Jaguars - Lawrence 1st
Texans - Mills 3rd round (their first pick in the draft thanks to the worst trade in NFL history)
Colts - Matt Ryan 1st

AFC West:
Chiefs - Mahomes 1st
Raiders - Carr 1st
Chargers - Herbert 1st
Broncos - Wilson 3rd

QBs changed during the year for some teams, but I think your point that the majority of QBs are 1st rounders is well substantiated. However, they are primarily drafted first because it's the most important position on the field and I do think it is easier to find quality in the first round than other rounds. After all, the vast majority of starters are 1st rounders.

Miami's recent success has been by drafting Tanny and Tua in the 1st round. Before that, we kept trading away 2nd rounders or trying to find hidden gems and it never worked.

There are TWO reasons most starting QBs are first rounders.  

The obvious one is that early drafted players are more talented than later drafted players.  If this wasn't the case than teams are wasting a ton of time, money and effort on their college scouting department.  

But there is a second equally if not important reason - early drafted players are given more opportunities and a much longer time to prove themselves.  

Hypothetically a team has a franchise 1st pick overall drafted QB that recently signed a record setting contract.  Lets say that team also has a 6th round backup QB.  If the 6th rounder outplays the 1st rounder in a few preseason games will this be enough for the 6th rounder to replace the 1st rounder? Absolutely not.  Let's also say the 1st rounder gets injured and the 6th rounder comes in and then the first rounder gets healthy.  What is the odds the 6th rounder gets to keep playing while the 1st rounder rides the bench?  Extremely unlikely.  If both are equally talented the 1st rounder is getting his job back, even the 6th rounder is somewhat better the first rounder will keep his job.  Pretty much the only way the 6th rounder is going to win the job is if he is so talented and has such potential that he would be able to eventually go on to shatter every single post season NFL record that exists  AND the coach must recognize that talent and be willing ignore all the fans and media demands that the 1st rounder gets his job back.  That is how much better the 6th rounder needs to be to beat out the first rounder and that is rare.  If the 6th rounder is not that phenomenal the first rounder keeps his job.    

And it is not just this instance.  The Jets traded up for Joe Knight they signed UDFA Danny Whitehead.  Whitehead out played Knight even the coach acknowledged this but the team kept Knight and cut Whitehead because one was drafted and one was an UDFA.  

If Tua wasn't a first round pick he wouldn't have gotten the number of opportunities he had.   And not just him a lot of first rounders get multiple shots but UDFAs get one shot. 

So you're saying that after deciding Purdy's value was less than the last pick of the 6th round but more than the last pick of the 7th, after getting him into camp the 49ers realized they had a gem?  I guess all the other teams that had him in camp have egg on their faces now!

It is possible to enjoy buying a winning scratcher lottery ticket without bragging how much smarter you are than everyone who didn't buy that ticket.  It's silly to attribute getting starting-caliber play from the literal last pick of the draft to your savvy scouting department who... apparently saw a starting QB sitting on the board at picks 220 and 221 and said, "Nah, cost still too high."

I don't mean to knock Purdy but I dont think that is true. He is throwing to wide open receivers and up until last week was only throwing about 200 yards a game. If any team was ever buil twhere the QB mattered the least it is that team. Put him on most of the remaining teams and he would have struggled much more because a good QB is needed much more.

To throw any other QBs in the convertion is kind of useless as the majority of the best QBs in the league are 1st rounders. After that it isn't even close.

This wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that QB's that would have been chosen in the later rounds in the past are now being chosen in the first round would it? Just asking.  ::)

The overwhelming majority of QBs in the league are first rounders.  A slight majority of QBs in the playoffs are first rounders.   That suggests that being a first rounder doesn't effect your playoff chances. 

Not to mention the number of 1st round QB's that are not starting a couple years later which suggests that just picking a QB in the 1st round doesn't mean much.

No other teams had him in camp, as the 49ers actually drafted him.  If you mean "had him in for a workout, then yes...any team that brought him in and didn't expend a draft pick for him has an egg on their faces the size of a pterodactyl.

Yes, that was my point.  You implied that the 49ers didn't realize what they had until they had him in camp, which a) is not really a scouting success story, but more on the coaches, and b) is a perspective that is only available to the team that drafted him.

Please don't bring up the fact that Miami could have drafted him 15 spots before SF took him, but instead took Skylar Thompson, or the complainers on here will never let it go.

If I'm drafting with a time machine, I can do a lot better than Brock Purdy.

Justin Jefferson instead of Austin Jackson, Trevon Diggs instead of Noah, Creed Humphrey instead of Liam Eichenberg, etc.

Pats fan logic. The sample size is tainted because everyone takes a swing trying to get a franchise QB so you a swing on people in the first round because it does determine if you win a SB or not. ( of course there are Dilfer exceptions) most teams will not have a franchise quarterback whether they draft in the first or not, that just says how rare a good quarterback is. But the point remains most winners will be from the first hour, your cheating Michigan alum is the exception.

Let me know when you get that time machine. Until then, be happy with Skylar...

If we were going to use a time machine, we'd go back to 2010 and pick Gronk.

If the subject is QBs destined to hold a clipboard next season (as Skylar will), I'm even happier with the three first-round picks that SF gave MIA just to have Trey Lance warming their bench.  ;D

A little peek behind the curtain during the draft for ya, Spidey...


On March 11, 2022, the 49ers all but anointed Nate Sudfeld as their No. 2 quarterback by giving him a fully guaranteed $2 million contract. At the time, the 49ers intended to trade incumbent starter Jimmy Garoppolo to save salary cap space and to pave the way for 2021 first-round pick Trey Lance to take over.

The 49ers valued the 6-foot-6 Sudfeld because of his prototypical size, versatile skill set and obvious rapport with Lance. Sudfeld, a 28-year-old career backup, became a trusted friend and mentor to the raw but talented Lance while spending most of the previous season on the 49ers' practice squad.

As last April’s NFL Draft approached, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch discussed the possibility of adding a third quarterback with one of the team’s final picks. In an interview with Bay Area radio station KNBR earlier this month, Lynch recalled Shanahan telling him, “I’d like to go get another young quarterback just to add into the mix. Let’s try to identify one later.”

Among the options was Purdy, a former three-star recruit who became Iowa State’s starter during his freshman year and maintained his hold on the job until he graduated. By then, he had completed more than two-thirds of his 1,467 passes and thrown 81 touchdown passes while helping carry a long-struggling Cyclones program to four straight winning seasons.

The 49ers scouted Purdy extensively. Then they interviewed Iowa State coach Matt Campbell and others close to him. Then quarterbacks coaches Brian Griese and Klay Kubiak peppered him with questions during a series of Zoom calls. The 49ers originally planned to target Purdy as their most coveted undrafted free agent, but they changed their minds during the draft after they were able to address more glaring needs at cornerback and along the offensive line.

The NFL awarded the 49ers a league-high five compensatory draft picks in 2022 for losing free agent players, coaches or executives to other teams. The last of those, the final pick in the draft that bestows the “Mr. Irrelevant” title on one player each year, presented a perfect opportunity to splurge on a quarterback whose accuracy and experience intrigued the 49ers enough that they didn’t want to risk losing him to another team.

“We got there to Mr. Irrelevant and I think we all just kind of looked at each other and said, ‘Why chance it?’” Lynch recalled.

Again, credit where credit is due for Purdy's success, but that story sounds like the 49ers initially felt Purdy was worth zero draft capital, but later - after extensive research - changed their minds and decided that he was worth the smallest possible amount of draft capital.  As Lynch himself put it: “We got there to Mr. Irrelevant and I think we all just kind of looked at each other and said, ‘Why chance it?’”

If Miami had picked Purdy instead of Skylar, the 49ers front office would have had zero regrets on how they spent the two draft picks at the end of the 6th round.  Even after their extensive research, they still did not believe Purdy rated a late-6th-round pick.  (And, in all fairness: that was an accurate belief at the time!  If they had picked someone else with the last pick, Purdy would have still been available and they could have gotten him as an UDFA anyway!)

So just enjoy the incredible production SF is getting from an unexpected gem.  It is unnecessary to also brag about the unparalleled vision of the 49ers' scouting department.