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The exclusive tag means that he can’t negotiate with other teams. It’s been reported in many places that the two sides are apart by more than $100 Million in guaranteed money. That Watson contract really changed the whole landscape of NFL contracts. Browns ownership is probably the most hated out of all the owners.

Lamar bet on himself this year and lost, to be honest. He suffered a significant knee injury and for such a mobile QB, that’s bad news. He was good when he played but wasn’t lighting the world on fire and I wouldn’t blame Baltimore for not guaranteeing him hundreds of millions with his performance/injury last season.

Slightly off topic, but this is why Miami will pick up Tua’s 5th year option without hesitation. That $22 Million is a drop in the bucket compared to what we would have to pay him if we declined it and he had just a solid 4th year. Daniel Jones is expected to get $30 Million a year after the Giants declined his 5th year option.

Yes, THAT Daniel Jones.

In an update, it's being reported that the Ravens are strongly considering using the NON-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson. This means he can get contract offers from other teams and they have the right to match. If they don't, they get 2 first rounders and if Lamar signs the tag, he gets $32 Million.

If they use this, it is basically a "You think you can get $250 Million guaranteed with a bad knee on a down year? Go right ahead." move by the Ravens. In a vacuum, very smart. However, this would create more bad blood. Then again, if the guy wants cap killing money and all guaranteed, they might have to do it.

Talking to myself but it is official, they have placed the non-exclusive tag on him. That is worth $32.4 Million. He can now take offers from any team and the Ravens can match or get two 1st rounders. The Ravens will match an offer like 5 years/$225 Million with $150 Million guaranteed, but Lamar seems to think he can get 5 years/$260 Million with all of it guaranteed. This means he has to put up or shut up now.

I can imagine a ton of teams willing to at least see what he is looking for, I'm sure the Jets will be one of them. Not very often a guy of his caliber is on the open market.

Seems like there may be some collusion going on amongst the NFL owners to reset the QB market salary; after the Browns Fucked things up with Watson.  Multiple teams came right out and said they were not interested in Jackson, that's out of the ordinary.  Jackson ought to be getting a lot more interest, but it's mostly crickets.

I've seen comments from GMs saying they weren't going to do the Ravens dirty work for them. Everyone thinks that if they actually work out a deal with Jackson Baltimore will just match it so they aren't wanting to deal with it.

I don't think it's collusion, just common sense. No one liked that Watson deal except for DeShaun. Lamar was offered 5 years/$250 Million but he turned it down(like an idiot)because he wanted more and all of it guaranteed. That isn't going to happen for a guy who keeps ending the year on IR. He picked a very bad year to try this and now he has given the Ravens all the leverage there is. They let him explore the open market and the open market and the market doesn't think now is a good time for a mega deal.

In all likelihood, he will work out a new contract with Baltimore that is large but not what he wanted. I don't see him playing for $32 Million this year and risking going back into free agency if he gets hurt again.

The deal that Lamar actually turned down was $133M for 3 years guaranteed.  IMO any non-guaranteed contract years in the NFL are just used for salary cap strategy. Quite a lot of money, but I think it's worth considering that his first 5 years with the Ravens he was paid a grand total of $32M in total; so that have paid their starting QB an average of $6.4M per year which has been quite a good deal for them.

If the Ravens had given him the Exclusive Franchise tag and paid him $45M that would have been fair, IMO.  But giving him the non exclusive tag dropped the price they have to pay him by $13M, to the $32M per year they wanted to pay him.  It sounds great that he is given the opportunity to try and get a deal with other teams, but if he gets a deal the Ravens can match it, again which is fine. BUT if the Ravens decline to match they get (2) 1st round draft picks from the team that signs Jackson, this really makes it hard for Jackson to get paid.  I can see the Ravens ending up with a bitter Jackson playing for a year at $32M, and if they have a bitter QB that is playing to protect himself they are going nowhere.  Worse case scenario they get a Byron Jones that sits the entire season with a phantom injury.

The worst case scenario for BAL is that Jackson plays well (and is healthy) next year, because that will REALLY drive up the price to franchise him again, and is likely to make him unwilling to sign any long-term contract with the Ravens at all.

BAL is basically replaying the Kirk Cousins-in-Washington scenario.  Yeah, Jackson is betting on himself, but BAL is also making a bet here: the bet that Jackson will either a) win the Super Bowl or b) not play well.  Any other outcome is pretty terrible for the Ravens.

c) realize his value isn't quite as high as he thought when no other team is willing to give him $250 million for 5 years, everything guaranteed, or whatever it is he's looking for. With that realization, he might just reach an agreement with the Ravens.

as a free agent, the desperation teams are all out there .. Jets, Cardinals, Raiders.. he'll get his money if he stays healthy

Hard to fully understand their positions without knowing what was offered vs. what he wants. If Lamar wants something like 6 Years/$300 Million all guaranteed, he isn't going to find that. However, if the Ravens are countering with 5 years/$220 Million with half guaranteed, then they need to up their offer.

But he's not a free agent and there's little reason to suspect he will be any time soon.

The non-exclusive franchise tag that he was slapped with is $32.4 million. That's peanuts for a quarterback like him. If no deal were reached, Baltimore could do the same next year with a 20% increase - or slap the exclusive tag on him. That brings us through the 2024 season.

Only in 2025 will it get really expensive with the contract set at 144% of the 2024 contract. Still, if the Ravens were to use the non-exclusive tag twice, that 2024 salary would only be $39 million making the costly 2025 exclusive tag "only" $56 million. In other words, the Ravens can use the franchise tag(s) to keep Jackson for the next 3 years at $127 million ($42 million APY).

Yes, obviously he could be lost (in exchange for 2 first round picks) in either of the first two years if he gets an offer that the Ravens refuse to match, but that would hardly make Jackson a free agent.

One of the things being mentioned the most was that other teams feel like the Ravens will match almost any offer, so why do the work for them? Plus, the massive contract is a cost in and of itself but throwing in 2 first rounders? It's a very steep price that I don't think any team wants to pay. The best case scenario for Lamar and Baltimore is to just work out an extension and be done with this drama. It's certainly in the best interest for Lamar because if he has another season where he finishes it on IR, the Ravens will just use the tag again. They won't commit long term to a guy who can't stay healthy.

He can't even accurately judge his free-agent value right now, for two reasons:

1) Teams know BAL has right-to-match, so they are disincentivized from doing the work to offer Jackson anything LESS than a ridiculously over-the-top offer
2) The cost of Jackson's contract also includes two first-round picks

^ It's always hard to know what's real and what's basically made up by journalists (or made up by teams and passed on to said journalists) during this time of year, but there ever since the first wave of "we have no interest" comments, we've seen a steady stream of teams mentioned as being interested / not ruling out / etc. a run at Jackson. Just this weekend, I've read articles claiming that the Colts, Lions, Vikings, and Titans were interested.

Let's be real here for a second. Lamar Jackson only just turned 26. He could easily have a decade of top level play ahead of him and his previous accomplishments speak for themselves. Two first round picks for Jackson is not a huge stumbling block. The Broncos gave up 2 firsts and 2 seconds for Russel Wilson. Carson Palmer went to the Raiders for a first and a second, despite having played 7 seasons for the Bengals and shown exactly what his ceiling was. If you look at the actual value of first round draft picks, two firsts is cheap for Jackson.

He cannot judge his free-agent value, but since he's not going to be a free agent anytime soon, that's not a relevant number. What he can get a sense of is his value - as in, what would he actually be able to get from other teams right now (and, by extension, from the Ravens, provided they match).

Two first round picks definitely lowers the price other teams would be willing to pay him, but (as argued above) I don't believe two firsts to be a massive stumbling block.

As for teams not willing to spend a bit of time talking with Jackson and putting together an offer for risk that the Ravens would match it, is that really a huge deterrent? If a team wants Jackson, what's the downside to talking to him and seeing if he would accept X contract? Yeah, the Ravens might match it, but that's just effectively the same as the player turning down the contract: You made an offer, you didn't get the player. What did you lose by trying?

https://www.nfl.com/players/lamar-jackson/stats/ (https://www.nfl.com/players/lamar-jackson/stats/)

It isn't, but a giant contract plus two 1st rounders is a big risk for a guy who ended his last 2 seasons on IR and I think we all need to dive deep into his stats. He really wasn't lighting the world on fire the past 2 years and that MVP award was 4 years ago now. Certainly not a bad player, still a good player but his stats and health are both trending down. I think a lot of teams would love to have him but they don't want him at the cost of a Mahomes contract plus two 1st rounders.

My father never liked RG3 only becaue he said he wouldn't last long. We used to argue about this but in the end I turned out to be wrong. I kind of feel that way about Lamar. He's one play away from losing his career. It's similar to why I wouldn't pay Tua big money long term. He's good but for how much longer?

With that logic, the Ravens would *not* match a contract offer and take the two firsts instead. The situation is symmetrical with two first round picks on one side and Lamar Jackson plus the contract on the other. The Ravens just get the right to choose which side they want to have. Make no mistake, if they choose to match, they are *losing* two first round picks that they would otherwise have gotten (opportunity cost).

The assumption that there is no contract value that would result in an equilibrium, suggests that there is a huge disagreement between the Ravens and other teams as to what Lamar Jackson is worth.

Lamar continues to be an idiot. He still has no agent but he is sending around someone kind of acting like his agent to negotiate for him. Thing is, that is not allowed under NFL rules so the league just had to issue a warning to all teams to NOT discuss anything with this person, only Lamar.

Just based off intellect alone, I would not want to commit long term to Lamar. At this point, I think Baltimore would take the two 1st rounders if they came from a team currently in the Top 10.

Well it's not as simple as that, as you now.  A new team would not only have to pay Lamar what he thinks he's worth, they would also have to give up two first round picks.  That's a huge hurdle to get over. He could be willing to take $200 million guaranteed, but tack on two first rounders and most teams don't have the ability to do that, the Bears are the only team that I can think of that have a lot of draft capital.

Lamar just said that he requested a trade on March 2nd. I think that is what led the Ravens to giving him the non-exclusive tag and letting him find what his market value is. For various factors, it's not really working out for him. His lack of agent is has created a lot of these problems and if he gets hurt one more time, he is going to cost himself well over $100 Million.

The Ravens have no intention of cutting you within the next 5 years, so the only way you don't get your whole contract is if you suck or can't stay on the field. In that case, why begrudge the Ravens for wanting some insurance? If you suck this year, you will bever get a deal like that again. If you're awesome, they're franchising you if you don't agree long term anyway.

Let me just say I'm beginning to think Lamar is dumb enough to sit out this next year. He seems hell bent on doing things his way and no one wants or can play with him. He's trying to send a friend around to talk with teams and teams can only speak directly with the player if he doesn't have an agent who has an agreement with the players union. 

“As of March 2nd I requested a trade from the Ravens organization for which the Ravens has not been interested in meeting my value, any and everyone that’s has met me or been around me know I love the game of football and my dream is to help a team win the super bowl,” Jackson wrote in a multi-tweet “letter” to his fans.

“You all are great but I had to make a business decision that was best for my family and I. No matter how far I go or where my career takes me, I’ll continue to be close to my fans of Baltimore Flock nation and the entire State of Maryland. You’ll See me again.”

He writes at a 6th grade level. He is a genuinely stupid person. I know agents can be scummy and no one wants 5-10% of their contract to go towards them, but there is a reason they are used. Does Lamar think the contract will just be the financials and lines for signatures?

This "tweet letter" of his probably scared off the only teams left that were interested in him.

Lamar has agreed to a 5 year extension with Baltimore. Details aren't out yet but it's supposed to be higher than what Hurts just signed for. Sticking point was always the guaranteed money. Considering his play and health has declined the past 2 seasons, I would imagine the contract is essentially a 2-3 year deal that the Ravens can walk away from if he doesn't bounce back.

Rapoport is reporting $260 million total including $185 million guaranteed. As a comparison, Hurts got $255 million total, $179 million guaranteed.

The devil is obviously always in the details and the structure/conditions can obviously massively affect the amount that is *practically* guaranteed.

Exactly, I still think it will be a 2-3 year deal that they can walk away from if he keeps getting hurt. Too much of his value is in his running but that never lasts due to wear and tear. Even Josh Allen and the Bills basically said he is done running so much because he's too valuable to lose to injury.

Well Lamar Jackson has proved he was worth the pay he fought for.