The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

We saw what happened to the Broncos and Packers.

Tyreek Hill is retiring in 1 or 2 years.  Tua is only good with Tyreek Hill.

Fun Fact:  Baker Mayfield did better than Brady did last season with the Bucs.  Jordan Love did better than Aaron Rodgers did with the Packers.

I wouldn’t either I think you have to win some games in the postseason next year to warrant it.

I don’t see anyone better though , what are our options?

Wish I could peek into the reality where we drafted Herbert but still have Hill, Waddle and McDaniel…

You can wait to see more meaningful results before you resign Tua, just like BAL did with Joe Flacco.  He won the Super Bowl and BAL had to break the bank to keep him, which you could argue hurt their short-term competitive viability: the Ravens only made the playoffs with Flacco once over the duration of that contract.  (Of course, another option is to wait for your QB to win Super Bowl MVP and then let him walk for nothing, the wisdom of which I will leave the reader to judge.)

There is another Raven strategy that MIA could copy to replace Tua: just draft a (two-time?) MVP to replace him, with your late first-round pick.  But this strategy raises the question of why the Dolphins wouldn't simply draft an MVP quarterback in the first place, or why they have chosen not to for the past 30 years.

My recommendation would be to sign Tua now to a backloaded deal.  You can still get him at a reasonable price, probably similar to what Herbert or Hurts got a year ago (which represents a significant discount in 2024 at the same price).  If he continues to improve, you keep him; if he doesn't, you let him go.

But I think this fanbase would be traumatized if Tua follows the Drew Brees arc and goes somewhere else to have incredible success on his way to a ring.

I don't have an answer here, but I think it depends on how good the deal is.  I can totally understand letting Tua walk if he is going to require elite player money.  It hurts, but I think it's fair to say that you aren't going to win a Super Bowl when you put that many of your resources in one player and that player is Tua, a guy I really like.

I know you can't just go to the franchise QB tree and pick another one, but you have to make smart, passionless decisions and can't risk getting into a Russel Wilson / Joe Flacco contract.  I hope we are able to make it work, but I will be supportive if we are not.

I think it unlikely for Tua to get a max contract with another team and go light up the world.

He's got guaranteed pay for 2024. IMO they shouldn't give him an extension unless it's a really good deal, which it's not going to be.  I commend him for making it through the season without injuries, but he didn't perform at important points.

Why would Tua take a deal like this or maybe the better question is why would Tua's agent allow him to take a deal like this? With his injury history? Not a chance. I mean if Tua would go for it, absolutely but Tua's not going to go for it.

I'm betting that Miami ends up using Tua's 5th year option. All the talk of signing him to a long term deal is smoke and mirrors hoping that Tua would actually do the above, but I have zero expectations it will happen.

Basically every starting QB's deal is guaranteed for injury, so that wouldn't really be a concern for him.

Miami already did that 10 months ago (https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/21/sport/tua-tagovailoa-miami-dolphins-fifth-year-spt-intl/index.html).

What I'm suggesting is that nothing is going to change this offseason. Are we talking about what to do for the 2025 season? I wouldn't make that decision till next offseason.

Omar Kelly and Dave Hyde were discussing something today and it made sense. Wait until after Baker Mayfield and Kurt Cousins signs to negotiate a price. Otherwise just do like you did Wilkins and offer him 75% of what you think he's worth for a few years and if he doesn't take it play him on his 5th year option. They are not just going to let him go and test the market. He's a top 10 QB in this league. Not top 5 at this point but he is still pretty damn good and very hard to replace ... as the last 25 years have proven.

There's always the franchise tag. The Ravens did that with Lamar Jackson and no one bit. I don't really see anyone doing that with Tua either. Lamar will get his long term contract this year and if Tua goes deep into the playoffs next year, he'll get one too. That seems to be the way things are going these days and the way that this season ended, I can't really see that changing for Tua.

Lamar Jackson got his long term contract in May of last year (https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/official-lamar-jackson-signs-five-year-contract-extension-to-stay-with-the-ravens/).  Or did you mean nothing would change for Lamar's contract this offseason?

Heck I'd be okay with trading Tua if they received a pocket full of first round draft picks.

Mike Tannenbaum said Tua had played himself into the 50 million category based on 17 starts and wins. Said he wouldn't do a long time of guaranteed money but would offer in the 50 mill a year range.

I don't think any other teams want to take on that risk, paired with the big contract.  It's not about picks.  It's about pay the man now or risk paying the man later, but losing him if it's too late.

Next year is the last year of Tua's rookie contract right?

I think part of this has to be how close you think we really are to breaking through next season to make a genuine run at the title. If we're close, it's got to be tempting to either make Tua play out his rookie deal, or at the very least only extend with a very team-friendly, back-ended contract so we can sign/re-sign critical players.

I am sold that Tua is our guy, and that this is the quickest shot we have at another elusive title. But that's while he's still "cheap" and it does give us an edge we may not have otherwise - and if that means resorting to the franchise tag at the end of his rookie contract (as unpopular as that may be) so be it.

All that said, by the middle of next season I think we will know where we are really at, and either Tua will be on the way to being paid royally or we will be starting to look at other plans.

So Lamar signed his long term contract after first being subjected to the franchise tag. Yeah, I'm saying that's what Miami should do with Tua as well....next year.

 

I don't think that's what you mean.  They used the franchise tag on Lamar, BUT made a deal with him before the season started, so he was actually paid under a regular contract.  I think you want them to use the franchise tag on Tua, and pay him tag money.

No, not necessarily. I want them to non exclusive franchise tag Tua next year and then use that as a starting point for negotiations with his agents for a long term deal. If he doesn't like what Miami is offering, he can go try to find a better deal somewhere else...and when that fails maybe he'll come back to the table with a more reasonable offer or he can play for the franchise tag if that's what he wants to do. That's what I expect. That's pretty much what happened with Lamar Jackson if I'm not mistaken and then he signed back with Baltimore. I think people were really surprised that Lamar didn't end up signing a contract with someone else and that was for Lamar which I would have way fewer red flags with signing than with Tua. If Tua can find a better deal somewhere else, I'm ok with that. Good for him. I don't think we actually HAVE TO HAVE Tua. It would hurt to lose him, but it's not the end of the world. Maybe you have to go pick a QB in the draft the next year, but then you restart that 5 year timetable of building a team around a rookie QB again. That's not the worst thing in the world. Teams have done it. I'm not saying it's easy because it's not, but signing a long term deal with Tua doesn't guarantee you anything either and in a lot of ways ties your hands as to what else you can do.

Tua playing for the franchise tag is probably the least attractive thing for both Miami and Tua, but if that's the way it goes, then that's the way it goes. I think you take that risk.

Now maybe Tua is reasonable in his demands for a long term contract, there are QB's that have done that, but I honestly don't see that happening. That's rare. I think Tua will want the going rate for QB's in the top 5 in the league if not the top in the league and I wouldn't pay that unless Tua's coming off a Superbowl run. If that happens next year that changes everything and I would gladly pay the guy in that case. He'll have earned it.

You should expect that if Tua is negotiating his contract coming off of a Super Bowl run next year, his contract will be top 1, not top 5.
It's ridiculous to think it would be anything less.

For the record, a "top 5" contract today would place him behind Burrow, Herbert, Hurts, and Lamar.

I just said that if he does that give him the best QB deal in the league. I have no problem with that. He'll have earned it. Miami hasn't been to a Superbowl since '84, the last time that Miami had the best QB in the league. If the Dolphins play in the Superbowl in 2024 with Tua as their QB, win, lose or draw give him whatever he wants. I couldn't care less.

Not just for Tua, but for all players, the non exclusive franchise tag is BS; and the players union should get this removed in their next contract.  It sounds good to allow a player to go see if he can sign with another team, but in reality other teams aren't going to try and sign the guy because A) the original team can match the offer and sign him, and B) if another team does sign him for what he's worth then they also have to give up 1st round pick in addition to the salary.  But the worst part of the non exclusive franchise tag is that the team pays a much lower amount for the non exclusive tag versus the exclusive franchise tag after no other team signs him.  It puts the player in the position of wanting to sit out the season if a deal can't be worked out.

I'd rather see them just give him the regular franchise tag and get him to play a season at that rate, without being locked in for 3 years of guaranteed payments.

While I don't necessarily disagree with any of that, the fact remains that it's a powerful tool for the teams to employ to keep salaries in check and as long as it's available Miami should use it.

For the record, I don't think the franchise tag is going anywhere. The owners aren't giving it up easily and since it impacts so few players a year there's no way that enough players are going to agree to give up enough in negotiations to get the owners to give it up. It's here to stay in my opinion.

Tua is getting paid, because Chris Grier would have to be fired to justify not paying him.  You don't not pay Tua AND keep Grier.  Either Grier made the right pick and you pay Tua, or Grier made the wrong pick and you don't pay Tua and fire Grier.

I'll tell you one thing, if they extend Tua and don't re-sign Wilkins, it will be one of the worst off-seasons ever.

https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/miami-dolphins-should-sign-christian-wilkins-for-long-term-contract-18922628

I really hope they re-sign him but I don't think they will. People around the team think they will tag him. One thing that hurts Williams is the fact the team gave Seiler some of the money that would have  gone to him. Hard to put too much money into one position that isn't QB.

I agree, if the choice were between keeping Tua or Wilkins I'd keep Wilkins.  Wilkins has proven himself, and can have a Jason Taylor like career; you don't let a player like that walk.

Miami has a good excuse not to extend Tua with all their cap issues, let Tua play out his 5th year and see if he continues to improve and stays healthy then you extend him next year.  If he doesn't improve then you are stuck with a Dak Prescott like QB, he'll play decent in the regular season and maybe get you into the playoffs, but will never make it to the AFC Championship game.  Miami has come a long way on this current rebuild but it's nearing it's end if they can't win playoff games.

These takes are puzzling to me.  I mean, it would be one thing if the Dolphins lost all the "important games" this year 17-10 or something.  But you have to put some responsibility on the defense for allowing 48 points in BUF, 56 points in BAL, and 26 points in a KC polar vortex.  How can Wilkins be a foundational defensive player that the Dolphins must keep on the same team that allowed 15 points in 3 minutes to a 6-win Titans team?  The defense had some injuries, sure, but MIA played exactly one game with a healthy OL (the game they put up 70).

MIA's defense this year was not particularly impressive; it was certainly worse than the offense by any measure.  So even if we say Wilkins was the heart & soul of the defense, why should the Dolphins break the bank to preserve an above-average-ish unit?  Why not throw Christian Wilkins back in the lake and try to draft the next Aaron Donald?  Wilkins has yet to even make a Pro Bowl and people are out here talking like he's a Ring of Honor candidate.

Let me start by saying that I disagree with your opinion that Miami's defense was not particularly impressive and that it was worse than the offense by any measure.

The defense was terrible in the Titans game; they gave up 2 TD's in the last 3 minutes.

The defense was terrible in the Ravens game, played terrible the entire game.

The defense was not great in the first Buffalo game, BUT let's be honest the offense sucked also.  Miami's offense scored 1 TD in the 3rd quarter and nothing in the 4th quarter.  Scoring 20 pts on the road against Buffalo is not going to win you the game, so that was a team loss.

When you look at the 2 most imported games, week #18 against Buffalo and Wild card game against KC, the defense stepped up and played well, despite having more guys out do to injury the entire year.  Against Buffalo (21-14 loss) Miami's offense only scored 2 TD's in the 2nd quarter, the other three quarters NOTHING.  And by the way 7 of Buffalo's points scored came from a 96 yard punt return, so the defense only gave up 14 points.  In the KC game (26-7 loss) Miami's offense scored a whopping 7 points in the 2nd quarter, again NOTHING for the other 3 quarters.  Meanwhile the defense kept holding KC to FG's, it was 19-7 in the 4th and if Miami's offense showed up they still could have won that game.  Miami's offense scored a total of 21 points combined for the two most important games of the season!!  And don't blame the offensive line, only Connor Williams was out those two games, and Eichenberg had plenty of practice at the position and played well.  Whereas the defense was down multiple players but played over and above.

BTW the defense had 4 pick 6's last season, only Dallas had more with 5.

IMO the Dallas game was the one very bright spot for the offense, they scored when they had to, to win the game. (Equally the defense deserves credit for holding Dallas to 20 pts, when they were averaging 31 pts per game)

Every game is important; if MIA beats TEN then week 18 doesn't matter.  That said:

- @ LAC the defense was atrocious and pathetic.  The offense carried that game, full stop.
- @ BUF, the offense came out and put touchdowns on the board on their first 2 possessions.  The problem is that the defense allowed TDs on BUF's first four possessions.  You cannot allow 31 points in the first half and expect the offense to compete ON THE ROAD against a defense of BUF's caliber.
- vs. BUF in week 18, the offense kept pace with BUF, and the difference was a special teams return.  Not sure why that is on the offense but not the defense.
- @ KC in the Wild Card game, the defense simply got boat raced.  In sub-zero conditions, where you should expect a tight, low-scoring game, the defense allowed more yards and points than they did in Germany.

It's also pretty weird that the offense gets no credit for blowing out bad teams, yet the one time that the offense plays down to a bad team, the defense shits the bed.  If MIA doesn't have the top offense in the league, those games against DEN and CAR are probably looking very different.

I give the offense credit for a lot of good play during the season; It was the reason I felt more positive about the Dolphins than I have in probably two decades.  I also blamed the defense for poor play in some games this season  (I started my last reply with those).

But the fact that you can't blame the offense for the losses in the last two games of the season, when they scored a combined 21 points for the two games is just ridiculous IMO.  The 96 yard TD return has absolutely nothing to do with blaming the offense, it was merely to show the point that the defense held Buffalo to 14 points.