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The Dolphins continue to make Tua wait but I'm glad we got Waddle signed.

This week, the Miami Dolphins agreed to a lucrative extension with one of their stars on offense. It wasn't the player everyone was expecting, as wide receiver Jaylen Waddle grabbed a three-year contract extension worth $84.75 million, with $76 million guaranteed, while quarterback Tua Tagovailoa continues to await his pay day. Waddle's deal, like others is really closer to 25 million a year.

That's a lot of money for receivers.

While his should have been the first to be renegotiated to free up money, Tyreek Hill hasn't even been in the conversation. You have to wonder how long Miami will pay big bucks for two receivers.

I'm a little concerned about Waddle getting #1 receiver money.  He hasn't quite played like a #1 yet, and I'm not yet sure you can be a good team if he's your best receiver.

I’m happy with it. Reek may retire once his contract is up. Waddle is a #1 on most teams and his first few years statistically speaking put him in rare company. He had rapport and friendship with Tua, our long term QB and we have plenty of hungry young talent at the position waiting for their chance so if Reek does retire or we can’t afford him anymore we will be prepared.

For the first time in a while I have genuine high hopes for this team and I see us at starting 7-0.

I'm not sure what you mean. He's done everything asked of him for the most part and as long as Tyreek is here he will always be the second option. I remember him splitting the middle of the field for a breakaway TD give Mike McDaniel his first victory over the Patriots. He's had many more meaningful catches since then.

***Edited to add I just saw this article and thought it explained it well.

JAYLEN WADDLE'S IMPRESSIVE NUMBERS OVER THE PAST THREE SEASONS
https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/how-waddle-earned-his-extension-01hz5mfzwkkz

As members of that 2021 class, Waddle, Chase, Smith, Collins and St. Brown be will forever connected and compared.

Out of these five, Waddle ranks third in receptions with 251. Also third among this group are his 3,385 yards and his 13.5 yards per reception average. He has 166 first downs, again third within these five, and second in catch percentage at 69.5%. His 18 touchdowns are fourth behind Chase’s 29, St. Brown’s 21 and Smith’s 19.

Chase and St. Brown are 1 or 2 in the main categories, while Waddle is right in the middle, ahead of Smith and Collins in most stats.

From a franchise standpoint, Waddle is the only player in team history to start a career with three straight 1,000-yard seasons, and just the ninth ever in the NFL. Waddle was also 2022’s yards per reception leader at 18.1.

Waddle broke the league’s single-season rookie record for receptions with 104 in 2021, passing Anquan Boldin’s 101. However, this was recently surpassed last season by the Los Angeles Rams’ surprise rookie, Puka Nacua. It's to be noted that Waddle played in 16 games in 2021, while Nacua played 17.

In his 47 games so far, Waddle already has amassed more receiving yards than Irving Fryar in his three years with Miami, as well as Oronde Gadsen in his six seasons. 

He ranks 13th overall in team history, and realistically could break into the Dolphins' top seven or eight in the category by the end of 2024 should he again hit in his average of 1,128.33 per season so far.

Waddle currently is 14th on Miami’s all-time list of receptions with his 251. From a touchdown standpoint, his 18 ranks 20th in team history.

Throughout his career, Waddle has improved with limiting his drops from his rookie year. After eight recorded drops as a rookie and seven in 2022, he cut that number to four last season.

Though he scored just four times in 2023, Waddle did have more receptions per game (5.1) than he did in 2022 (4.4). He also had a better catch percentage in 2023 with 69.2%, as opposed to 64.1% in 2022.

Waddle is fourth in Dolphins history with 5.3 receptions per game over his career, behind Brandon Marshall, Jarvis Landry and Hill. Waddle is third in career receiving yards per game with 72.0, with Marshall at number two at 74.3, and Hill leading with 106.3.

The Dolphins all-time leader in receptions is Mark Clayton with 550 and behind him is Mark Duper at 511. The pair flip-flop in career yardage with the Dolphins, as Duper is the leader at 8,869 to Clayton’s 8,643. Clayton is the Dolphins’ receiving touchdown career leader with 81, followed by Nat Moore’s 74.

Waddle has averaged 83.6 receptions per season in his three-year career, and using this trajectory could surpass Clayton around the middle of the 2027 season.

Waddle will build on his already impressive resume through at least the 2028 season should nothing unforeseen prevent it.

When it’s all said and done, he could challenge the all-time franchise records in several statistics should his career progress as his contract extension should indicate.

I would like to see Waddle make some more plays in big moments.  MIA is in a lot of close games, and I can't think of many standout "#1 receiver"-type plays in the 4th quarter from Waddle.  The only one that really comes to mind for me is the 3rd-and-22 against BUF in 2022 week 3.

It's a different league now.  The best chances of winning a Super Bowl come from paying receivers and corners big money (along with QBs and edge rushers).  That's where the game happens nowadays.  30 years ago you paid running backs big money.  Now you don't do that anymore.  You pay the guys catching the ball that money, along with the guys throwing to them and the defenders charged with stopping it.

Nope.  You need balance to win a superbowl.  If you only have an air game but no ground game, you will have an exciting team to watch but you won’t win a superbowl.  This was true when Dan Marino played and it is true today.

In their three most recent championship seasons (2023, 2022, 2019), KC has finished ranked #19, #20, and #23 in rushing, respectively.

I'm with you Spidey, I definitely did not see a #1 receiver last season, and it seems a strange time for a big payday. Last year there were times where he was noticeably absent during games (to the point I called it out a few times during my game reviews), so not surprisingly his stats from last season are down from the first two.

Comparing him to previous players pre-2000 is useless garbage for stat-geeks to fap themselves with - anyone who remembers the era knows how brutal it was, Receivers (and quite often Quarterbacks) were legally getting belted in the head every second play. It wasn't the pass happy game it is now since these guys have been protected.

These are the most relevant stats - against our genuine #1, Tyreek, who draws the best CB and/or double or triple coverage every play he's on the field.

Waddle:
2023 -   72 receptions - 1014 yards - Longest 60 - 4 TD
2022 -   75 receptions - 1356 yards - Longest 84 - 8 TD
2021 - 104 receptions - 1015 yards - Longest 57 - 6 TD

Hill:
2023 - 119 receptions - 1799 yards - Longest 78 - 13 TD
2022 - 119 receptions - 1710 yards - Longest 64 - 7 TD
2021 - 111 receptions - 1239 yards - Longest 75 - 9 TD (Chiefs)

I don't think it's fair to even compare Waddle to Hill; Hill was the best receiver in the league last year, not just a "legitimate #1."

But CF's cited article gives some context:

So we don't have to compare Waddle to the absolute best WRs like Tyreek or JJ; even comparing to just his draft class, Chase and the Sun-God have been pretty clearly better, while Waddle is closer to Smith.  And in the spirit of consistency, I would say that if Devonta Smith is the best receiver on your team, you'd be in trouble there, too.

   You can't compare Waddle to  Jamar Chase.... Chase is clearly the number one receiver on his team, while Waddle is not. If Tyreek Hill wasn't on the Dolphins,  Waddle's numbers would be much higher. Most likely, better then Chase.

It's not like Chase is playing with scrubs.  If Tyler Boyd and/or Tee Higgins weren't on the Bengals, I'm sure Chase's numbers would be higher, too.

Put another way: if Waddle and Chase swapped teams tomorrow, whose numbers go up and whose go down?  The answer isn't clear to me.

It's hard to try to guess what a receiver's numbers would be on a different team.  Sure, you might get more looks, but you'll also get more defense attention if there are fewer options.

I think we're going to find out if Waddle is a true #1 a lot sooner than some people think.

With the recent generous extensions of JJ by the Vikings (and Waddle by us), Tyreek's manager has already indicated he wants more money.

The problem is, we just don't have it. We are already projected to be almost $16M over the cap in 2025! That's before any kind of Tua contract (let alone anyone else).

As it is, Hill's cap number for the projected final 2026 season of his current contract is a staggering $56.3 million. There's a little room to negotiate, if Hill is willing to take more in the way of guaranteed money for a lower contract - but from the early language it doesn't sound like that's the way it will head.

If there is no agreement, Miami could cut Hill, eating $22.6 million in cap space, but saving $11.6 million - or they could release him before the 2025 season, taking on $11.3 million in dead money but saving $45 million.

I'm thinking the most likely option is that 2024 will be the final season we will see Tyreek Hill in a Dolphins jersey, and he will either be traded or cut by 2025.

According to people close to the Dolphins they will resign Hill right after Tua. Looking forward in years about being over is not very productive because there is so much voodoo to be done on current salaries and the cap will likely rise higher than expected.

Tyreek yesterday when asked about it.

“I’m going to let my agent do his job,” Hill said. “His job is to be great at that and my job is to obviously come out here and continue to do whatever I can to help this team win. Whether that’s a restructure, whatever the case may be, we want to make sure that it benefits both sides and I want to be able to help the team as much as I can.”

.....

“It’s a great day in the Hill household. Everybody waking up happy,” Hill said. “At the same time, I want to be able to help the team as much as I can. Obviously, we already know being greedy ain’t going to help the team.

That's good to hear.  It has to be fair -- he has to have the ability to do well, because he's the best.  But if it can prolong his career, keep him in a good landing spot, and he's happy, that can go a long way.

From what people like Omar have said ... they believe the Dolphins will extend him like they did X rather than blow up this contract. It's my opinion that he's still our best player and we can't afford to make him unhappy. He also isn't afraid to play hurt which will always get bonus points from me.

Where is the money for this going to come from? Which other players are we going to lose to enable this, because we can't afford his existing contract as it stands now?

I'm far from being a cap specialist but I do know next year's money can gets stretched out in the form of a bonus and the following 2 years are manageable numbers until we can release him like we did X.

This year's money is concrete, next year's cap responsibilities are all smoke and mirrors. In brief, it doesn't matter. You can restructure contracts to push cap liabilities further down the road.
And it's not your money, it's Steven Ross's money they're spending, so who cares.

It doesn't matter that it's Ross's money. It matters because some day these other guys are going to have to get paid, and if you choose to ignore it, tomorrows problem eventually becomes now's problem.

This offseason we lost half of our defensive starters and arguably our best offensive lineman for the last four years because we didn't have the money to re-sign any of them. We did not even have the money to franchise tag one of them. We still have to decide on Tua, Holland, maybe a possible Conor Williams extension, and sometime soon after that Phillips (maybe earlier, seeing as we already have given Waddle a juicy extension).