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TDMMC Forums => Around the NFL => Topic started by: Denver_Bronco on June 26, 2006, 03:23:19 pm



Title: Quarterbacks & 4th q comebacks
Post by: Denver_Bronco on June 26, 2006, 03:23:19 pm
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/200...analysis/3978/


Excerpt:
Quote:
We looked at every game from the past ten seasons to see which recent quarterbacks have been the best at rallying their teams back from a deficit. And although he was known for comebacks early in his career, the top comeback quarterback might surprise you: it’s Jake Plummer, slightly ahead of Peyton Manning and Vinny Testaverde. It’s a surprising conclusion, but that’s the kind of insight rational statistical analysis can provide.
Table 1. Top 10 quarterbacks at comebacks since 1996
Rank Quarterback Wins Losses
1 Jake Plummer 19 28
2 Peyton Manning 19 29

Plummer?s comeback ability has drifted towards average since his first few seasons but his overall numbers still rate the best. Under Vince Tobin, he was a stellar 10-11 when trailing by one score in the fourth, and since then he is a solid 9-17. Peyton Manning holds the single-season mark with six comeback wins in 1999. Only the coldest, hardest, football fact-seeking Patriots fans would express surprise at Peyton Manning?s high rank, but Vinny Testaverde is a bit of an eye-opener. However, Vinny was a comeback machine in 2000 and 2001, racking up nine wins in 17 comeback chances during those two seasons with the Jets. No other quarterback in the last decade had more than eight comeback wins in any two-year span. 
 
     


Title: Re: Quarterbacks & 4th q comebacks
Post by: EDGECRUSHER on June 26, 2006, 05:14:38 pm
What do the two numbers mean? Records wile trailing in the 4th?


Title: Re: Quarterbacks & 4th q comebacks
Post by: Denver_Bronco on June 27, 2006, 07:40:04 am
What do the two numbers mean? Records wile trailing in the 4th?
Wins & Losses when trailing going into the 4th


Title: Re: Quarterbacks & 4th q comebacks
Post by: Brian Fein on June 27, 2006, 08:35:29 am
Plummer is up in the standings only cause he's had less chances?

Sounds shady to me.


Title: Re: Quarterbacks & 4th q comebacks
Post by: Sunstroke on June 27, 2006, 01:19:23 pm
Once again...this is the bikini statistic. The real good stuff underneath would be to see what the QB's rating is in those 4th quarters. If Denver is down by 6 going into the 4th quarter, and Jake hands the ball off to his RB 20 straight times and Denver ends up coming back to win...does that "really" say anything at all about Jake's comeback skills? Nope...but it would count on this list. If Jake is down by 4 points going into the 4th quarter, throws two interceptions, but has his punt returner rip off a 70 yard TD return to win the game, should that game really be used to illustrate Jake's comeback ability?

Statistics can be deceptive sometimes...or whenever the writer wants them to be. ;)