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The interesting thing about "winning a big game on the road" is that you can always redefine them after the fact so they don't matter.

Week 1 at the Chargers last year seemed like a big game at the time.  But Herbert got injured later in the season, so now it's considered irrelevant.
Week 2 at Baltimore the year before seemed like a big road win.  But again, Lamar got injured later in the year, so that doesn't matter either.

If MIA wins on Thursday, and GB fails to make the playoffs, this won't be a "big win."  Same with HOU or SF.

Here are the teams that the Bengals have beaten this year:

CAR
NYG
CLE
LV

Perhaps your confidence is unwarranted.

Perhaps. But...
They lost by 1 point to the Chiefs.
They lost by 5 points to the Commanders.
They lost by 4 points to the Raven in OT.
They lost by 1 point to the Ravens.
They lost by 7 points to the Chargers.

Every one of those games was winnable.

The Dolphins lost a close game to the Bills and Cardinals with Tua, but the Cardinals don't stack up to the teams that Bengals lost to in my humble opinion. Basically Miami lost 1 close game to a good opponent with Tua, the Bengals have lost 5 close games to good opponents this year. They could turn it around and win a lot of games down the stretch even to some good opponents. Not saying they will, I'm saying they could and I think that's more likely than the Dolphins being nearly perfect down the stretch. If I were the Bengals, I'd think my luck was about to turn around.

MIA had a winning December record in 2023, 2021, and 2020, yet y'all will happily chant annual December collapse.

I can believe NASA's numbers, I don't buy that 15% chance for the Dolphins. More like 5% in my opinion. They give the Bengals a 4% chance of making the playoffs and I'd give the Bengals a better chance to make the playoffs than Miami right now if you put a gun to my head.

Here are the teams that the Bengals have beaten this year:

CAR
NYG
CLE
LV

Perhaps your confidence is unwarranted.

Who ya got?  A friend of mine said that we haven't won a big game on the road in 30 years, which made me laugh.  It's hard to pick us for that reason.

I'm worried about a QB with mobility.  We are bad at that.

I am notoriously bad at predicting Trump actions, but I don't think he'll do these across the board tariffs.  He'll create a bunch of bluster, use it as a threat to punish or reward companies here, but then he'll kinda declare victory on it and he'll lose interest.  It's not like his voters care about the actual policy.  It'll be "the wall" all over again.  He'll do some bits and bobs that's only moderately ineffective, say that he did it, and then move on to something else.

according to http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html the dolphins have a 15% chance of making the playoff this year.

according to nasa.gov the odds of the world stops spinning on its axis this year is considerably lower as it would require a very large undetected asteroid to hit the earth at precisely the right angle.  

I can believe NASA's numbers, I don't buy that 15% chance for the Dolphins. More like 5% in my opinion. They give the Bengals a 4% chance of making the playoffs and I'd give the Bengals a better chance to make the playoffs than Miami right now if you put a gun to my head. Maybe that's just me being negative, but I've seen the Dolphins blow too many games with the playoffs on the line in the last 3 years. Even last year when they made the playoffs, they lost games and ended up backing into the playoffs when they could have been the top seed in the AFC East. Sure there were excuses, there's always excuses. I'm all out of optimism.

Granted that's not as low as the asteroid thingy, but I wasn't comparing the Dolphins making the playoffs to the asteroid thingy, I was comparing the chances that Miami wins out with the asteroid thingy. The Dolphins winning out is probably still higher than the asteroid thingy happening, but it's in the same ball park.

Waddle - his best game of the year.

If SF and HOU continue their slides, then no matter what happens for the rest of the season, MIA can (at best) only beat "one good team" this year (even if they win out).  That, in turn, would mean that unless they beat a #2 seed as a #7 seed (which could very well mean trying to be the first team to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs in 3 years), this will be just yet another late season collapse.

MIA has beaten good teams; they've beaten BAL, BUF, DAL.  If you're going to continue to find reasons to dismiss every win they get against a good team, you'll continue to be disappointed.

Going back to 2022 to find wins against Baltimore and Buffalo isn't a very strong argument

MIA has beaten good teams; they've beaten BAL, BUF, DAL.  If you're going to continue to find reasons to dismiss every win they get against a good team, you'll continue to be disappointed.

Huh? Miami is 1-10 against Buffalo going back to 2019, that ONE win came in Sept 2022.  Yes they beat Baltimore in 2021 and 2022 (Baltimore had a losing record in 2021 at 8-9 and was 10-7 in 2022), but got walloped in their most recent meeting by a score of 56-19, a game on 12/31/23 which was kinda important for their playoff seeding.  As for Dallas I did not dismiss that win, in fact I have said more than once that was one of their best wins last year.