Most likely path to the playoffs?

[Dave Gray]

Updated chances of us going 2-0 to win the division:

24%

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Updated chances of us going 2-0 to win the division:

24%

At this point I think it is impossible for the Dolphins to get a wild card, it is division or nothing. 

[fyo]

At this point I think it is impossible for the Dolphins to get a wild card, it is division or nothing. 

What happens if the Jets win out and the Dolphins and Patriots both wind up with 10 wins? (Assuming the Ravens drop both of their remaining games and the Patriots' loss is to Buffalo).

That scenario results in a tied head-to-head and tied division record, so the tie-breaker goes to "common games".

The Dolphins then sweep the AFC West and go 3-1 against the NFC West.
The Patriots go 3-1 against the AFC West and sweep the NFC West.

That's all tied and we move to Conference games. With the loss to the Bills, the Patriots would be 6-6 in the conference, whereas the Dolphins would be 7-5.

So the Dolphins would get second spot in the division and the second wild card. (The first wild card goes to the Colts courtesy of their current 8-2 conference record, regardless of a tie with the Dolphins and/or Patriots).