This is an awesome graphic: 128 AFC Playoff seeding possibilities

[jtex316]

http://static.nfl.com/static/content/catch_all/nfl_image/AFC_playoff_seeding_2011.jpg

The only team 100% guaranteed at their current spot is Houston at #3. No matter what happens in Week 17, Houston is the #3 seed.

[Brian Fein]

How the hell are Denver, Oakland and Tennessee even in the conversation?  Jeez, the AFC is sorry this season.

[Landshark]

Each conference has one division that is "sorry".  This year, it's the AFC West and the NFC East.

[jtex316]

NE - In
PIT - In
BAL - In
HOU - In

DEN - Has a 75% chance of making it in (96 of 128 ways)
OAK - Has a 34.375% chance of making it in (44 of 128 ways)

CIN - Has a 68.75% chance of making it in (88 of 128 ways)
TEN - Has a 12.5% chance of making it in (16 of 128 ways)
NYJ - Has a 9.375% chance of making it in (12 of 128 ways)

Notes:

- It's most likely that Houston (3) will play Cincinnati (6), but Houston could host TEN or NYJ, obviously
- It's most likely that Denver (4) will play Pittsburgh (5), but there are scenarios in which Denver would play Baltimore
- If OAK makes it, it is extremely likely they play Pittsburgh, but a few scenarios exist where they would play Baltimore
- NE is not playing on Wild Card Weekend
- Denver's road to the Super Bowl could look something like this: vs. PIT, @ NE, @ BAL. Denver is 1-3 this season against playoff teams (Won Week 2 vs. CIN, but lost Week 4 @ GB, lost Week 8 vs. DET and lost Week 15 vs. NE, losing by 26, 35, and 18, respectively)