An optimistic look at Miami's record.

[Pappy13]

I know some of you are disappointed in the Dolphins this year and haven't seen progress, but I'm gonna try to blow some sunshine up your ass right now and tell you where I do see some progress. If you don't feel like getting any sunshine blown up your ass right now, stop reading.

For those of you still reading...here goes.

5-7 is nothing to get excited about, but there is so much more to a record than what first meets the eyes. You all know that I'm a big fan of stats, I don't hide that and yes, I know that stats don't tell the whole story and yes I think they can be manipulated if you try, but if you don't try to manipulate the stats, if you try your best to actually use the scientific method when looking at stats, I think there really is some value into what stats tell you. That's what my SoS spreadsheet attempts to do.

Another person far smarter than I has come up with his own system of trying to look at stats and rate NFL teams and his name is Jeff Sagarin. I've been a fan of his for a long long time and I respect his NFL ratings. I don't know if any of you look at his ratings, but I check them every week and there's something I would like to point out in his ratings. But before we get into the specifics I'd like to take a moment to try to explain his ratings. First of all he rates the teams in 2 ways, both by simply won-loss record (ELO SCORE) and then by points scored differential (PURE POINTS) and then he combines the 2 ratings into 1 overall rating. Both of these ratings also take the schedule into consideration.

Now to get to the point. Miami has a rating of 17.66 this year which is good for 21'st in the league. Last year at the end of the year Miami had a rating of 18.63 which was good for low and behold 21'st in the league as well, but what I find interesting is how Miami has fared this year in games against the top half of the league compared to last year. Last year Miami won 6 games, but 5 of those 6 wins came against teams rated in the bottom half of the league. The one lone win against a team in the top half came against the Jets in the last week of the season who ended up the 15th rated team, but they were falling quickly by that point in the season and are now rated below the Dolphins this year. Miami's record against top 10 teams last year was 0-4 and 1-7 against the top half of the league.

Compare that to this year where Miami has won 5 games, but 1 win was against a top 10 team (Seattle) and 2 more were against teams in the top half of the league (Rams and Bengals). Miami's record against top 10 teams this year is a respectable 1-2 and is 3-2 against the top half of the league. So what does that all mean?

Well what it means to me is that while Miami won 6 games last year, all of those wins came against bad teams. Miami is probably gonna win at least 6 games this year as well, but they have won a few games against better teams, not just beating bad teams. The big problem this year has not been losing to some better teams in my opinion, the big problem this year has been losing to some teams that were not better than Miami (Arizona, Tennessee, Buffalo and the Jets). The Arizona and Jets games both went to OT, so they could have easily won those games and if they had their record would look much better this year than it does. Keep in mind too that this was after trading both Brandon Marshall and Vontae Davis for future draft choices.

So next year for Miami to continue to show progress, they must do what they did this year in winning a few games against better teams, but they must also not lose those games they shouldn't lose. Do that and Miami should be able to make the playoffs next year. That doesn't sound so tough now does it?

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I see one flaw:

It assumes that it is better to beat good teams and lose to bad teams than beat bad teams and lose to good teams. 

I am not sure if that really means much.  It might just mean that you had a few lucky breaks and a few bad breaks.  Or you were looking past a shitty team while another team was looking past you.

Not to say I disagree with the conclution.  I think the Dolphins are playing better this year than last AND with a rookie QB that is improving, that bodes well for continued improvement. 

[Pappy13]

I see one flaw:

It assumes that it is better to beat good teams and lose to bad teams than beat bad teams and lose to good teams. 

I am not sure if that really means much.  It might just mean that you had a few lucky breaks and a few bad breaks.  Or you were looking past a shitty team while another team was looking past you.

Not to say I disagree with the conclution.  I think the Dolphins are playing better this year than last AND with a rookie QB that is improving, that bodes well for continued improvement. 

Look at it this way. Wouldn't you rather say that for the next year to end up with a better record you simply need to win a few more winnable games rather than you need to win a few more games against tough opponents?

By the way, New England is one of the best teams year in and year out at not losing to teams they shouldn't lose to. That's why Belicheck's players don't get taken out of games that are a blow-out. That's why he doesn't believe in resting his starters in games that don't matter. Those games do matter to him. You can't be a good team if you don't beat the teams you should beat.

[jimmythefinger]

You like being 5-7 you better get used to it because these Coaches have absolutely no Football IQ whatsoever, and I have a hard time conceiving these guys will ever be able to amount to much more than mediocre. They have no idea how to Game Plan. Aaron Hernandez and even Wes Welker on some plays were covered by Linebackers. Hernandez 13 targets; Welker 18. Was this a surprise? Reggie Bush rips off a couple nice runs of 10+. So they pull him and put in Daniel Thomas. They then throw a flare pass to the RB coming out of the backfield. Tell me why they do this? Do they simply think the other team will never think they are stupid enough to do this? Thomas catches the ball, has one man to beat, literally FALLS ON HIS ASS! Not to mention he fumbles for the 3rd time this year but the Coaches do not bench him, humiliate him like they did to Reggie Bush. This team has one weapon and that's Bush, but the Coaches are just too dumb to realize this, apparently.

Do not know what they like about Daniel Thomas. A total plodder. He's like that old joke where the Defense thinks the game is over so they leave the field. Miami starts handing the ball off to Thomas and four plays later the Offense scores.

The Coaches are terrible. No brains at all.