PFF: Why Coach Adam Gase and QB Ryan Tannehill are a good match

[CF DolFan]

Here's a positive perspective on the hire. He's already said they are going to address protecting Tannehill. If that happens and if Tannehill makes a few little changes like getting rid of the ball then he could legitimately become a threat.

The hiring of new Dolphins head coach Adam Gase should have a positive impact on quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

JOHN BREITENBACH

Adam Gase was a hot commodity this offseason, with interviews planned for most teams in the NFL with a head-coaching vacancy. He opted to join the Miami Dolphins, however, and while his motivations for doing so are known only to him, it’s fair to assume that the team having a settled quarterback situation played a part.

Here’s why Gase and QB Ryan Tannehill appear to be a perfect match:

Tannehill has lots of ability: This season was a rough one for Tannehill, as he ranked just 24th in the NFL in PFF’s passing grades – a huge drop-off from his previous performances. He put together an excellent season in 2013, finishing as our fifth-ranked QB. He ranked in the top 10 of our grades in 2014, as well, a sign that this past season may have been more of an aberration than an indication that he isn’t capable of high-level play. And there is reason to believe that Gase could be the perfect coach to get the best out of him.

Gase’s track record with QBs is excellent: It’s hard to quantify just how much of Peyton Manning’s success in Denver had to do with Gase, as Manning’s Hall of Fame resume existed well before the two worked together, but Manning certainly speaks highly of his former coach. And John Fox clearly acknowledges Gase’s ability, taking him to Chicago with him to lead the Bears’ offense under Jay Cutler.

Cutler was coming off a dreadful season in 2014 during which he ranked as our 35th overall QB. Gase certainly seemed to have a positive impact, as Cutler ended the year as our 17th overall QB. There are a number of similarities between the offense Gase ran in Chicago and some elements of Tannehill’s offense under offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. Both have a preference for the no-huddle and use the read-option in the run game to hold the backside defender. Gase is likely to keep those features, suggesting an overhaul isn’t required in Miami.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/10/pro-why-new-miami-coach-adam-gase-and-qb-ryan-tannehill-are-a-good-match/

[Dolfanalyst]

I did some calcluations in this area the other day.  There is a way of quantifying what we should expect from Tannehill on the basis of the addition of Gase.

Based on the deviation from Peyton Manning's career average DVOA associated with Gase's presence, averaged with the deviation from Jay Cutler's career average DVOA associated with Gase's presence, Tannehill's DVOA should increase to -0.68 with Gase, which, based on DVOA's 2015 correlation with win percentage in the NFL (0.48), would be associated with one more win in a regular season.

Based on what both Manning and Cutler did at different times previously in their careers (and anyone can go take a look at those career numbers from year to year), Gase's presence wasn't associated with all that great a difference in their performance, much less than what seems to be touted in the media.

[Rich]

[Spider-Dan]

It's borderline ridiculous to repeatedly cite an organization as a trusted authority in subjective analysis, and then subsequently ignore their conclusions when inconvenient.

Dolfanalyst, may I ask your source for the DVOA numbers you just cited?

[Dolfanalyst]

It's borderline ridiculous to repeatedly cite an organization as a trusted authority in subjective analysis, and then subsequently ignore their conclusions when inconvenient.

Once again, there are subjective data provided by PFF (their player and team grades), as well as objective data provided by PFF.  PFF is valuable only for the latter in my opinion, as some of that information can't be found elsewhere.  Obviously one can choose one of the two sources of data and leave the other behind.

Dolfanalyst, may I ask your source for the DVOA numbers you just cited?

It looks like you found it.  Keep reading.

[masterfins]

For me, the key to this article are the last seven words - suggesting an overhaul isn't required in Miami.  Given that there should be at least two new starting offensive lineman (possibly rookies), Miami doesn't need to install a 100% new offensive system.

[Dolfanalyst]

For me, the key to this article are the last seven words - suggesting an overhaul isn't required in Miami.  Given that there should be at least two new starting offensive lineman (possibly rookies), Miami doesn't need to install a 100% new offensive system.

I'll give you the stats associated with that sort of thing as well.  Lest you fall asleep, i.e., the picture above, stay tuned -- the ending is quite good.

There was a 0.62 correlation between Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards (a measure of offensive line play) and quarterbacks' DVOA.

If the Dolphins were to have the very best Adjusted Line Yards in the league, it would likely be associated with a change in Ryan Tannehill's DVOA from -10.6 (his 2015 value) to 12.61.

Based on the 2015 correlation between quarterbacks' DVOA and win percentage, that would likely be associated with a 51.5 win percentage, or roughly an 8-8 record.

So an improvement in the Dolphins' offensive line, such that the team would have the very best offensive line in the league, via its impact on Ryan Tannehill's play, would likely be associated with two more wins in a season.

Now, let's look at what's more likely.  Let's say the Dolphins' offensive line improves to one standard deviation above the league average in Adjusted Line Yards.  Less than the best in the league, but significantly above average if you will.

That would likely be associated with an increase in Ryan Tannehill's DVOA from -10.6 to 7.73, which would in turn likely be associated with a 48.6 win percentage, or, again, roughly an 8-8 record, or two more wins in a season.

Now, let's add an improvement in the Dolphins' offensive line play to one standard deviation above the league mean, to the effect on Ryan Tannehill produced by Adam Gase, which I illustrated in the second post in this thread (above).

That would boost Ryan Tannehill's DVOA to 28.25, which alone would likely be associated with a 61 win percentage, or just under a 10-6 record.

I'm sure that's the sort of boost in offensive performance the team will be looking for with whatever moves it makes in the offseason, including the hiring of Gase.  If you couple that sort of improvement on offense alone (to just under a 10-6 record) with improvement in the team's pass defense (which was poor in 2015), a playoff season certainly isn't unlikely by any means.

There are a lot of "ifs" in that equation, obviously, but this team can go from 6-10 to 11-5 with significant improvements in Tannehill (via the presence of Gase), the offensive line, and the pass defense.

[masterfins]

I'll give you the stats associated with that sort of thing as well.  Lest you fall asleep, i.e., the picture above, stay tuned -- the ending is quite good.

EDIT:
BLAH, BLAH, BLAH
END EDIT

There are a lot of "ifs" in that equation, obviously, but this team can go from 6-10 to 11-5 with significant improvements in Tannehill (via the presence of Gase), the offensive line, and the pass defense.

So you're saying if Miami has the best offensive line play in the league, significant improvements by the QB (with the addition of a new HC that knows what he's doing), and an improved pass defense, THEN Miami can improve to 11-5 and a shot at the playoffs.    Not to be rude, but I don't need to take a refresher from my college statistics class to figure that out.

[Dolfanalyst]

So you're saying if Miami has the best offensive line play in the league, significant improvements by the QB (with the addition of a new HC that knows what he's doing), and an improved pass defense, THEN Miami can improve to 11-5 and a shot at the playoffs.    Not to be rude, but I don't need to take a refresher from my college statistics class to figure that out.

No, but the refresher from your college statistics course sure helps you be far more precise and definitive about it.

And just to clarify, it isn't "the best offensive line play in the league" they would need, but rather offensive line play a standard deviation above the league mean, or said differently, merely significantly above-average offensive line play.

That portion looks to have been but a "BLAH" in your reading of it, however, while trying (unsuccessfully) "not to be rude."