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Author Topic: Miami has zero chance Saturday night  (Read 2239 times)
Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #15 on: January 09, 2024, 09:17:31 am »

Maybe it's me but I always find it amusing when you, a bona fide stat man, tries to use hypothetical emotional reasons to explain why you are right. With that said I don't think it's a cultural thing at all. Maybe a mind set per se but definitely not cultural because our defense is still kicking with practice players.  

Over the last four games the Dolphins' defense is 24th in the league in EPA per play (0.50).

Do you have a family?  How hard did you work to support it last year and how much money did you make?  Do you think your income -- which is a statistic -- reflects the love you have for your family?  Or is that impossible because income is a number and love is a "hypothetical emotional reason"?
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #16 on: January 09, 2024, 09:31:32 am »

Over the last four games the Dolphins' defense is 24th in the league in EPA per play (0.50).

Do you have a family?  How hard did you work to support it last year and how much money did you make?  Do you think your income -- which is a statistic -- reflects the love you have for your family?  Or is that impossible because income is a number and love is a "hypothetical emotional reason"?
LOL ... I didn't say you are wrong for having an emotional opinion ... I just find it funny as you are typically arguing stats over people's opinions as if only stats matter.
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #17 on: January 09, 2024, 09:33:05 am »

LOL ... I didn't say you are wrong for having an emotional opinion ... I just find it funny as you are typically arguing stats over people's opinions as if only stats matter.

In the end only stats do matter.  What determines who wins and loses are stats -- points.
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masterfins
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« Reply #18 on: January 09, 2024, 12:03:55 pm »

If not for all of the injuries on defense I would give Miami a 40-60 chance of winning.  With the injuries I agree with Hoodie, about a 1/3 chance of winning.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #19 on: January 10, 2024, 07:53:28 am »

If not for all of the injuries on defense I would give Miami a 40-60 chance of winning.  With the injuries I agree with Hoodie, about a 1/3 chance of winning.
Kind of funny to me that you are basing this game off the defense. The last game the defense played lights out although decimated and the offense chit the bed. To me the biggest thing that needs to happen is Tua, Hill, Waddle, and Mostert need to be game changers. The offense is pretty healthy with no excuses.
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #20 on: January 10, 2024, 12:13:38 pm »

The offense is pretty healthy with no excuses.
???

Waddle and Mostert didn't play, half the OL was still out.
The injury report today has Armstead (as always), Eichenberg, Waddle, Mostert, Achane, and Hill all with limited or no participation in practice.
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Dave Gray
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« Reply #21 on: January 10, 2024, 02:20:42 pm »

The offense is pretty healthy with no excuses.

That seems like a weird statement.  Two of our skill position starters were out, plus a ton of linemen.
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masterfins
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« Reply #22 on: January 11, 2024, 02:47:04 pm »

Kind of funny to me that you are basing this game off the defense. The last game the defense played lights out although decimated and the offense chit the bed. To me the biggest thing that needs to happen is Tua, Hill, Waddle, and Mostert need to be game changers. The offense is pretty healthy with no excuses.

The Bills could have easily hung another 12 to 20 points on the Dolphins.  There was good defensive play, but there also was some luck involved.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #23 on: January 11, 2024, 05:27:43 pm »

???

Waddle and Mostert didn't play, half the OL was still out.
The injury report today has Armstead (as always), Eichenberg, Waddle, Mostert, Achane, and Hill all with limited or no participation in practice.
LOL ... I was responding to the upcoming game.  Armstead is always on the report as he never practices. Eichenburg is actually playing well and while not at Williams' level he is definitely good enough to win. Our offensive line is definitely good enough to win. Reports are basically saying all the speed guys are playing this week regardless of the report. Elliot and Jevon Holland are the ones I'd worry about on the defense as we know X is out. I think Elliot plays while there is a good chance Holland is out.

That seems like a weird statement.  Two of our skill position starters were out, plus a ton of linemen.
The comment was referring to this game coming up where both Waddle and Mostert will be playing. See comment I was responding to. 

The Bills could have easily hung another 12 to 20 points on the Dolphins.  There was good defensive play, but there also was some luck involved.
The Bills could have also scored 14 points less. The one TD was a lucky bounce for not one but two reasons.  They actually had linement upfield that wasn't called and it was a ricochet off of Gink's helmet. The other TD was special teams and belive it or not, coming into this game we had given up the least amount of return yards on the punt team. It's just a freak accident of players taking each other out.
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