Clock Management question

[dolphins4life]

Let's say you have all three timeouts left and you are down one score and kicking off.

How much time would have to be left for you to kick it deep?

If there was a minute left, you'd probably be lucky to get the ball back with 20 seconds left.

I'd say you need to onside kick in that situation

Edit:  I meant in terms of the time situation.  Like, how many seconds it would take to run a play.

If you have no timeouts left, you HAVE to try an onside kick because the other team can run out the clock.

If you have timeouts, you have to consider how long it would take to run each play, and how long the punt and return would take before you decide.

[CF DolFan]

You have to take in account how your defense is playing, how their offense is playing, the current state of special teams, and the general momentum of the game. If my defense is struggling I am less likely to give them the ball but if we now have the momentum and defense is suddenly playing lights out I would gladly kick to them.

[Dave Gray]

If it literally means that you have to get a 3 and out (where a first down ends the game), you onside kick.  The reason is because you have two outs:  1) you get the onside kick or 2) you get the 3 and out and you get the ball back anyway.  The negative there is that it incentivizes the offense to go for it on 4th down because the ball is still pretty far from the endzone.

You don't onside kick in situations where it's just a couple of minutes, because that allows them to get a first down and not immediately end the game.

But there isn't a direct correct answer, because it weighs heavily on how good the offenses and defenses are that we're talking about.

[CF DolFan]

There have only been 3 successful onside kicks this year out of 39 attempts. That's a pretty low number that almost reduces the onside kick down to your very last resort.