Biggest Super Bowl blunder

[Rich]

Opinion:  The play selection was a blunder that cost the Seahawks the game.

Fact: Before Sunday, NFL teams had thrown the ball 108 times on the opposing team’s 1-yard line this season. Those passes had produced 66 touchdowns (a success rate of 61.1 percent, down to 59.5 percent when you throw in three sacks) and zero interceptions. The 223 running plays had generated 129 touchdowns (a 57.8 percent success rate) and two turnovers on fumbles.

Opinion: But Lynch was in beast mode and unstoppable.  Maybe with another back the odds were only 57.8% but with Lynch it was a sure thing.

Fact: Marshawn Lynch ran the ball from the 1 yard line 5 times this season. 1 TD, 2 runs for no gain, 2 runs for a loss. 

Let's not let the facts get in the way of declaring that Carroll finally did for NE what he failed to due to NE from 1997 to 1999 win them a super bowl. 

Cherrypicked facts are awesome. Here's another one.

The New England Patriots were deadlast in the NFL in defending plays from the 1 yard line. They allowed a touchdown on those plays 87% of the time.

[Brian Fein]

Fact: Marshawn Lynch ran the ball from the 1 yard line 5 times this season. 1 TD, 2 runs for no gain, 2 runs for a loss. 

How was he from the 2 yard line?

This could be a very cherry-picked stat based on the semantics of ball spotting.

[Spider-Dan]

They weren't on the 2 yard line.  Stats from the 1 are entirely relevant.

And one of the recurring themes of the anti-passers is that Lynch is the obvious choice to gain 1 yard.  Is he the obvious choice to gain 2 yards?  3?  4?

[masterfins]

missing a 47 yard field goal outside on grass is not a blunder.

Try telling that to a Bills Fan and they will disagree with you.  Besides, Norwood made kicks of this distance throughout his career.  It's not like he didn't have the distance on that kick.

[Brian Fein]

They weren't on the 2 yard line.  Stats from the 1 are entirely relevant.

And one of the recurring themes of the anti-passers is that Lynch is the obvious choice to gain 1 yard.  Is he the obvious choice to gain 2 yards?  3?  4?

I understand but, as a Marshawn Lynch fantasy owner, I recall a vast many more than 1 goal line TD from him this season.  So, to say that only one TD came from "specifically the 1 yard line" completely ignores his goal line prowess any from distances farther.  Why not show his stats from "inside the 5 yard line" just to illustrate the point?  Your vehement objection further emphasizes the claim of cherry-picking.

[Spider-Dan]

You are the one attempting to cherry pick!  At EXACTLY the distance that the Seahawks were at, Lynch was 1/5 this season.  They were not at the 2, or the 3, or the 4, so why are you trying to include stats for distances that they were not at?

Suppose Lynch was 5/5 at from the 4-yard line.  Who cares?  They weren't at the 4-yard line!

[Dave Gray]

^ Sample size.

Brian is attempting to loosen the criteria and make more relevant data, in order to increase the sample size, as plays only from the 1 yard line could be an outlier.

[Spider-Dan]

BUT THEY WERE AT THE ONE YARD LINE

Let me put this another way:  you could just as easily say, "What is Lynch's lifetime success rate from the 1-yard line?" if you wanted to muddy the waters.  You are intentionally including less specific stats because the direct stats are unfavorable.

You aren't "cherry picking" success rates if you only cite 2014 instead of 2011/2012/2013/2014, because this is the 2014 team.  And you aren't "cherry picking" stats if you only cite from the 1 instead of 1/2/3/4 because they were at the 1.

[Brian Fein]

dude, it was just a point of interest.  If the guy is 8/10 for 8 TD's from the 2 yard line, don't you think if he RAN FOR 2 YARDS from the 1 yard line, it would STILL BE A TD?

Don't get so offended, jeez.  It was just a question, as Dave stated, to widen the sample size, and remove "THE SPOT OF THE BALL" from the already-ridiculous "would he have scored or not from the 1 yard line" hypothetical speculation.

[Rich]

Let's throw in Marshawn Lynch's success rate from the 1.5 yard line and the 0.5 yard line just to add more ridiculousness to the turn this discussion has taken. 

[Brian Fein]

*- NOTE - Read back, I also said that the call to pass was not a terrible call.  I'm not arguing in the "give it to Lynch" camp, but let's stop short of speaking about how terrible Lynch is from short yardage...

To avoid the cherry-picked stat line, and illustrate the same concept, I found this article on Sporting News.  Here's an excerpt:

His 280 total carries were fourth in the NFL, his 13 rushing touchdowns were tied for first, and seven were from five yards or fewer. He has 15 career regular-season and postseason one-yard touchdown runs (including one in last year’s Super Bowl), and 42 from five yards or less.

The article shows all 5 of Lynch's run plays from the one yard line, since that's all that matters cause that's where the ball was.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2015-02-04/nfl-super-bowl-seahawks-marshawn-lynch-one-yard-line-analysis-context-pete-carroll-call-patriots-2014