NL playoff breakdown

[MaineDolFan]

The National League picture is slightly more clear than the AL, but not by much.  Let's start in the areas that I feel are pretty well wrapped up. 

Chicago has an eight game lead in the NL Central over the Brewers and won't be caught. 

The Dodgers have opened up a 3.5 game lead over Arizona on the NL West and I'm pretty confident that they have this division wrapped up as well.  The Dodgers have ten games left and a pretty cushy ten games at that:  Pittsburgh tonight, three at home against San Fran, three more at home against the Padres and three to close it out on the road with San Fran.  If you're Arizona and looking at that schedule, things are not in your favor.

Arizona, meanwhile, has a tougher 11 games to finish out their season - and quite honestly they haven't played all that great lately.  Up until Sunday they had lost 8 of 9 before rattling off three straight.  They finish up a series tonight against San Fran and then get Colorado for three in the Rockies, St. Louis for four on the road and return home for three with the Rockies.  Arizona is nine off the chase for the Wild Card so the division is their only hope of getting into the playoffs.

I'm not liking their chances at all.

Now let's talk about the division that is up for grabs.  The Mets own a half game lead right now over the Phillies and 5.5 over the Marlins.  The Marlins are going to play a major factor in this divison race.  Unlike the west, there are key head to head matchups here.  The Marlins get Philly at home for three starting tomorrow and then three on the road at New York to end the season.  In between they have a single make up game against the Reds on the road and three at Washington. 

That stretch is pretty vital.  The Marlins and Phillies are both 7-3 in their last ten games while the Mets are 5-5 and continue to experience a record setting bullpen meltdown.  While I don't think they can overcome a 5.5 game deficit with 11 to go, it helps when you have three head to head with both teams that you are trailing and cupcakes wedged in between those three.

The Mets are picking a bad time to watch that little fade away.  On the road for one more with the Nats tonight, three roadies against the Braves and then home against the Cubs and Marlins.  The Cub series should prove to be very interesting.  Chicago has all but locked up home field throughout the playoffs and have a chance to get their rotation in order.  The one saving grace the Mets have in this is that they'll be facing a Cubs team with nothing to win and everything to lose if they empty the tank against the Mets on the road.

The Fightin' Phills have the clearest path, in my opinion.  At Atlanta tonight before a key three game set in Miami.  Then they close it out at home with three more with the Braves and then the season finale with the Nats.

Which brings us to the uber confusing Wild Card status within the National League.

The Brewers are a half game out of the Wild Card with the fading Astros four games out and the Marlins at five.  The Cardinals are sitting on the outside looking in on this, trailing at six games.  I think that will be a little too much to overcome with only ten to play. 

The Brewers might have the best path here with games left against the Cubs, Reds and Pirates.  The Astros get Florida, the Reds, Cubs and Braves.  Where the Cards fate might be sealed is a four game set against Arizona.  They also draw the Reds and Cubs to close it out.

Oddly enough I think that the Marlins might have an upper hand here.  Now this is a massive long shot.   Five games out with ten to play.  But if you look at the head to head match ups the Marlins can gain ground very quickly while the Brewers and Astros could potentially fall off the chase.  I wouldn't put my mortgage money on the Marlins in this case, the smart money is on the Brewers. 

Looking over schedules and trends, my thoughts are the following:  Chicago locks up best record and coasts.  I think LA will wrap up the West by this weekend and eliminate Arizona's chances.  I don't think the Mets will hold off the Phillies and I expect them to not compete for the Wild Card.  I believe that the Wild Card will come down to the Brewers and the Marlins.  I have this weird feeling the Marlins are poised to take it.  Don't be shocked for them to close out the season 8-2 and in that hunt.

[Philly Fin Fan]

Now let's talk about the division that is up for grabs.  The Mets own a half game lead right now over the Phillies and 5.5 over the Marlins. 

You might want to double check those standings- My Fightin Phils have the lead over the Mets, not the other way around

[MaineDolFan]

That's actually what I meant...lol...

[Brian Fein]

Marlins are 7-3 in the last 10 but have won 7 in a row and 9 of the last 12.  They haven't really played cupcake teams, either, beating the Phils and 'Stros twice each in that stretch, around a sweep of the Nats.

I'm looking forward to this weekend's series against the Phillies.  I'm going to the game Saturday night, and I have a pretty good record as fan attendance goes. 

I had written off the Marlins post-season hopes a few weeks ago when they dropped to 7.5 back for the division, but their recent late-season push has me excited again.  I think the Wild Card is within reach, and if miracles happen and they can sweep both the Phillies and Mets coming up, maybe they can make a run at the NL East crown!  Let's go Fish!

[Sunstroke]

Nothing would be cooler than watching the Marlins make a strong push and snatch that wild card... My early-season dream of a Marlins-Rays world series is technically still alive.

[Tenshot13]

^ That would be freaking awesome 

[Sunstroke]

The Marlins' Cameron Maybin looked reeeeally good tonight, in just about every facet of the game. At the plate, it's hard to do better than 4 for 4. He also flashed those sweet wheels on the basepaths, twice going from 1st to home on doubles by John Baker. In the outfield, his speed was on display in the 3rd inning when he took what I initially thought was an extra base liner by Tejada in the left-center gap, and ran it down for the out.

Very impressive showing by the 21 year old rook...I'm looking forward to seeing him as the every day CF for the Fish next season.

[MaineDolFan]

The Marlins' Cameron Maybin looked reeeeally good tonight, in just about every facet of the game. At the plate, it's hard to do better than 4 for 4. He also flashed those sweet wheels on the basepaths, twice going from 1st to home on doubles by John Baker. In the outfield, his speed was on display in the 3rd inning when he took what I initially thought was an extra base liner by Tejada in the left-center gap, and ran it down for the out.

I can't remember who it was - but when the Maybin deal happened someone on this site poo-poo'd it a bit and said that my praises of Maybin were unwarranted.  Then we he struggled to start the season and was demoted to the minors the person piled on again.

The kid is 21 freaking years old, give him some time.  Future bonafide superstar.  Stroke and I don't jump up and down and jizz in our pants over any prospect.  This is the type of guy that we love because we know he'll be featured on the cover of video games and hoisting MVPs some day.

[Brian Fein]

Maine, I'll fess up - that was probably me.  I remember being annoyed that we got 3 "nobody's" for Dontrelle and Cabrera. 

That said, I take it all back.  After watching Maybin play last night, I am friggin thrilled to have this guy on the team.  I had hoped he'd have been called up before September, but Cody Ross filled the gap admirably and let the kid develop in the minors.  I am excited from what I saw last night.

However, Jeremy Hermida looked good in his first game out, too, and he's been less-than-stellar lately.

[Sunstroke]

Stroke and I don't jump up and down and jizz in our pants over any prospect.

I think that the last three prospects I've actually gotten gooey over as rookies are Cole Hamels, Hanley Ramirez and Ian Kinsler...

[MaineDolFan]

The latest batch of prospect to rookies and prospects you'll hear about soon that have me worked up are Jacoby Ellsbury, Clayton Kershaw, Wade Davis and Nick Adenhart.

[Sunstroke]

The latest batch of prospect to rookies and prospects you'll hear about soon that have me worked up are Jacoby Ellsbury, Clayton Kershaw, Wade Davis and Nick Adenhart.

I got gooey enough on Kershaw as well, I guess...Lil_B and I dedicated about 20 minutes one show talking about Kershaw and Reds' rookie Jay Bruce.

[MaineDolFan]

Great.  Thanks for calling and letting me in on that action.  I see how it is.

[Sunstroke]

Great.  Thanks for calling and letting me in on that action.  I see how it is.

Excuse me?  Wait...one more time...'Scuse me?

Not only do you have an open invitation "every" Saturday, but you didn't even show last Saturday when you said you'd be interested in talking about the playoff picture.

[Brian Fein]

Great.  Thanks for calling and letting me in on that action.  I see how it is.

Maybe you should listen to the radio show!