Most likely path to the playoffs?

[BigDaddyFin]

We're essentially two games behind with 4 play.  The Jets and Patriots both own tiebreakers over us.  I would say it's more likely we get in as a wildcard, but even that will require some luck because Baltimore owns a tiebreaker over us there as well, unknown if Indianapolis will own a similar tiebreaker. 

I don't see it happening for us.  I want it to, I'd be thrilled if it did, but too much shit has to go wrong out of our control for it to happen. 

[raptorsfan29]

actually we own the tie breaker over both NE and NY if we end up tied with them at the end of the season

[ochizon]

I think the playoffs are extremely unlikely at this point.  Here's why I say that.

In my equation, here is my given: That the Dolphins will have to win out to make the playoffs.

That means, we have to beat the Bills, Niners, Chiefs, and Jets.

With parity the way it is, it's hard to win 4 in a row against any teams, especially two in your division.


I give us .50, .60, .60, and .40 chances, respectively.  That gives us about a 7% chance...which sounds about right to me.

 

That would give us a .525 chance...

[Dave Gray]

That would give us a .525 chance...

Nope.  7.2%

[ochizon]

how do you figure?
or average chance is 52%, as far as I can tell

oh wait... I guess we have a 52% chance of goin 2-2... nevermind

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Nope.  7.2%

Actually based on those % for each game 4.8%

[fyo]

Actually based on those % for each game 4.8%

WTF is the problem with people's calculators (or their math skills).


.50 * .60 * .60 * .40 = 0.072 = 7.2%

end of story.

[fyo]

how do you figure?
or average chance is 52%, as far as I can tell

It's like the standard coin toss example. Heads and tails are each 50-50. So your odds of getting two heads in a row are 0.5 times 0.5 = 0.25 (=25%). You need to multiply the probabilities together.

Average probabilities aren't very useful. Say you have two events, one of which has a 100% probability of occurring and another with has a 0% probability of occurring. The average is 50%, but that says absolutely nothing about how often BOTH events will occur (which is never, because one of them never happens... 1 times 0 = 0).

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

WTF is the problem with people's calculators (or their math skills).


.50 * .60 * .60 * .40 = 0.072 = 7.2%

end of story.

wrong

(1-.5) * (1-.6) * (1-.6) * (1-.4) = .048 = 4.8%

[Dave Gray]

wrong

(1-.5) * (1-.6) * (1-.6) * (1-.4) = .048 = 4.8%

How did you guys graduate from high school?

4.8 is the percent chance that the Dolphins would lose 4 in a row, given the above ratios.

It's 7.2%.    Done and done.

[raptorsfan29]

i will never understand how you come up with 7.2.

it's more .80,.70,70,.50  which would be 19.6%. 

Not using the stupid the formula our chances of making the playoffs isn't 7.2. it's 20%, Think of it this way dave in our final 4 games, there is a possibility of 5 scenarios, (4-0,3-1,2-2,1-3,0-4) each one has a 20% chance of happening. So therefore our chance of going 4-0 is 20%.

[Dave Gray]

Think of it this way dave in our final 4 games, there is a possibility of 5 scenarios, (4-0,3-1,2-2,1-3,0-4) each one has a 20% chance of happening. So therefore our chance of going 4-0 is 20%.

You are wrong again.
There are 5 scenarios, yes, but they are not equally likely.
Using your logic, it would be equally likely to go 16-0 as it would be to go 8-8.  Obviously, this isn't correct.

There is only 1 way for us to go 4-0.
Yet, there are 4 ways for us to go 3-1.
And there are 6 ways for us to go 2-2.

Even if all of the games are a 50/50 shot, then the equation is .5^4, which equals = 6.25%

I gave us 7.2, because I think we're better than most of our opponents.

Trust me...I'm good at math. 

[run_to_win]

Fascinating.

[raptorsfan29]

You are wrong again.
There are 5 scenarios, yes, but they are not equally likely.
Using your logic, it would be equally likely to go 16-0 as it would be to go 8-8.  Obviously, this isn't correct.

There is only 1 way for us to go 4-0.
Yet, there are 4 ways for us to go 3-1.
And there are 6 ways for us to go 2-2.

Even if all of the games are a 50/50 shot, then the equation is .5^4, which equals = 6.25%

I gave us 7.2, because I think we're better than most of our opponents.

Trust me...I'm good at math. 

if i remember the probability crap i went through in Stats

Are you talking about

these types of probabilities
4-0 - WWWW
3-1 - WWWL - WWLW-WLWW-LWWW
2-2 - WWLL- WLWL-WLLW-LWLW-LLWW-LWWL
Vice versa for 1-3 and 0-4

[Fau Teixeira]

i will never understand how you come up with 7.2.

it's more .80,.70,70,.50  which would be 19.6%. 

Not using the stupid the formula our chances of making the playoffs isn't 7.2. it's 20%, Think of it this way dave in our final 4 games, there is a possibility of 5 scenarios, (4-0,3-1,2-2,1-3,0-4) each one has a 20% chance of happening. So therefore our chance of going 4-0 is 20%.

dave is weighing the probabilities of a win based on his own opinion that the dolphins will win..

so the actual .4/.5/.5/.6 numbers are arbitrary .. but the math he used to get to 7.2 isn't .. he's right