Most likely path to the playoffs?

[Tenshot13]

You are all wrong....the probability that we go 4-0 is 100% 

It would be somewhere around 50-75%, yet I have it on good source that Brett Favre's period starts on the last game of the season, giving him cramps and making him play like crap against us....here is the formula for it

Brett Favre's bleeding vagina x (The Jets sucking a floppy donkey dick)^1000000 = The Dolphins in the playoffs and Brett Favre not pregnant

[Dave Gray]

Are you talking about

these types of probabilities
4-0 - WWWW
3-1 - WWWL - WWLW-WLWW-LWWW
2-2 - WWLL- WLWL-WLLW-LWLW-LLWW-LWWL
Vice versa for 1-3 and 0-4

Yes.

[NADS]

I think we have to win the division to make the playoffs (same thing for the Jets & Pats as I think only one team is going).

Agreed.  Division is key--one loss and we're done.  I get this sickening feeling the Pats will weasel their way into another AFC East championship.

Indi will beat Detroit and most likely Jacksonville if not run the table.  10-6 minimum, 11-5 probable if Titans come to play in Week 17, possible 12-4 if Titans sit starters.  This leaves one wildcard.  Shit is way too convoluted to figure out at this point but Ravens play Steelers and Cowboys before Jaguars so there is a possibility they would lose two (10-6) in which case we're still boned. 

Bills need to grow a pair and beat Jets and Pats to alleviate this situation. 

[ochizon]

The bills WILL beat the Jets

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Agreed.  Division is key--one loss and we're done.  I get this sickening feeling the Pats will weasel their way into another AFC East championship.

The most ironic way for that to happen would be for the all the teams to win their next two, then week 17 the Pats win and the Dolphins and Jets TIE (shhh , don't  tell mcnabb but they are possible) in which case the Pats would win the Div.   

[NADS]

I don't see the Pats losing with weak schedule and Cardinals at NE.  Cards won't play starters much.  Bad feeling about Jets game for us--Favre will pull magic shot-put pass out of his ass which Renaldo Hill will be mesmerized by and leave a shitty, unknown receiver wide open in the end zone.

[Tepop84]

The most ironic way for that to happen would be for the all the teams to win their next two, then week 17 the Pats win and the Dolphins and Jets TIE (shhh , don't  tell mcnabb but they are possible) in which case the Pats would win the Div.   

[ ] would be ironic

[Dave Gray]

Updated chances of us going 3-0 to end the season:

14.4%

However, I think that we probably have a shot to lose a game and still win the division, so long as the Jets and Pats lose before the final week of the season.

[Tenshot13]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d80d28df7&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true

Interesting article on why NFL.com thinks we are going to win the division

[NADS]

Updated chances of us going 3-0 to end the season:

14.4%

However, I think that we probably have a shot to lose a game and still win the division, so long as the Jets and Pats lose before the final week of the season.

I'd like to see the different scenarios you have in mind.   

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I'd like to see the different scenarios you have in mind.   

If the Jets lose 2 (mia plus another) Mia loses one, and Pats lose one.  Dolphins will most likely win the division. 

Under that situation the:

Mia would be 10-6; Pats would be 10-6; Jets would be 9-7; Bills at best would be 9-7.

Tie breakers between Pats and Dolphins:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).

split

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.

if the Pats lost was to the Bills than Mia would win on this tie breaker

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

Under any situation where the teams are tied, the Pats and Mia tie here too.

4.  Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

right now Mia is 6-4; Pats are 5-5.  each have two conf games left to play:

Pats - Bills and Oak; Mia - Jets and KC.

We have already taken care of Pats lose to Bills with tie breaker #2.  If the Pats lose to Oak even if Mia was to lose to KC. Mia would win this tie breaker.  But if Mia was to lose to KC and NE was to lose to AZ then this tie breaker would  be even at 7-5.

So the only way we get to tie breaker number 5 is MIA beats Jets and SF lose to KC; Pats beat Bills and Oak lose to AZ.

5.  Strength of victory.

The only non-common victory would be

NE beating KC
Fish beating SD.

KC is currently 2-11; SD 5-8.  In order for MIA not to win this tie breaker SD would have to lose all remaining games and KC would have to win all remaining games.  If that happens this tie breaker is even.

6. Strength of schedule.

Only two non-common games

Pats - Colts (9-4) and Steelers (10-3)
Fins - Ravens (9-4) and Texans (6-7)

NE is currently leading in this tie breaker but Fins could pass them.

-------

The only realistic way Mia doesn't win the tie breakers assuming the teams end with a tied record at the end of the season would be if, MIA was to lose to the Jets.  And even then if Pats and Mia end 10-6 with the Jets 9-5, Mia would win the tie breakers if the Pats loss was to the Bills. 

[NADS]

Good job.

[fyo]

As far as I can tell, the results of today have made little difference. We still need to win out to get in. We cannot pry a wildcard away from the Colts (W). The Ravens (L) would need to lose out (Cowboys away and Jax at home) for us to top them with 10 wins and even then we'd still have to wind up ahead of either the Jets or the Patriots.

One complicated scenario is if we win next week, but lose to the Jets in week 17. If the Jets win their other game, they have the division. If they lose their other game, the Patriots get it if they win both theirs. If the Patriots lose one, we can all wind up 10-6. In that case our two losses to the Jets give them the 3-way tie-breaker, reducing it to a two-way with the Patriots. If the Patriots' win was over the Bills, they'd be through on division record. If they lost to the Bills, we'd get second place on account of best conference record.

Even if all that crap actually happened, we'd STILL have to wrestle a wild card away from the Ravens, which would require them losing their final two games (Cowboys away and Jax at home).

[sciotto]

   Win out the division's Miami's. Finish 10-6, and there are all kinds of possiblities, which I don't want to get into.

[YoFuggedaboutit]

Baltimore lost today.  I seriously hope they lose out.