There's no such thing as a 3-year plan.

[Spider-Dan]

In the past, people have spoken about how they thought that the Dolphins were, at best, 3-4 years away from contention.  I have never agreed with that kind of analysis, and here's why:

In today's league, any team can contend for the title in 2 years.

Look at MIA and ATL.  Both of those teams were hopelessly feeble last year.  Yet in one offseason, both of them have become competitive, potential playoff teams that are still in the hunt for their division title with 2 weeks to go.  Give either of these teams a major free-agent signing and a quality first-day draft pick (think Frank Gore/Bob Sanders/Devin Hester) and they are immediately legitimate title contenders.

Is it difficult to rebuild a team that quickly?  Yes.  But when you get right down to it, coaching impacts the team immediately.  Good coaches don't need 4 years of picks in order to get the team performing competitively.

I'll leave it at this: if a coach does not have his team in the playoffs (or, at the very least, missing the playoffs because of tiebreakers) by the end of his second year, he will never contend for the championship.  (For purposes of this discussion, I consider "contending for the championship" to mean either a Super Bowl appearance or a top-2 playoff seeding.)  Offhand, I can't think of any time where this has been untrue.

[bsfins]

I agree,and disagree at the same time.....
I think to build Good long term success,it does take 2 to three years of good drafting....After a dismal season,you tend to get an easier schedule...(based on the previous years record) I feel like team health,has alot to do with it,a Team decimated by injuries one year,can get dramatic improvements the next year....

Example Cleveland was 4-12 2006,10-6 in 2007,and again 4 wins this year....Chicago Bears 13-3 in 2006,2007 7-9..

Modified to add,I think it also depends on who,and where the money is spent on the team....I think a Team like the Raiders it might take them a couple years to get rid of some of the bustilicious contacts they've got now....

[Spider-Dan]

After a dismal season,you tend to get an easier schedule...(based on the previous years record)

I think this is overrated, for two reasons:

1) There are only two games on the schedule that are affected by record.  Of the 13 opponents that a team plays in a given year, 11 of them are identical to those of their divisional opponents.

2) Weak teams last year can be good teams this year, and vice-versa.  BUF finished 2nd in the AFCE last year; their resulting 2nd-place opponents were CLE (4-9 this year) and JAX (5-9 this year).  MIA finished 4th; their resulting 4th-place opponents were BAL (9-5 this year) and HOU (7-7 this year).

Want another example?  TB finished first in their division and drew DAL (9-5) and SEA (3-11).  CAR finished second in their division and drew NYG (11-3) and ARI (8-6).

[bsfins]

Want another example?  TB finished first in their division and drew DAL (9-5) and SEA (3-11).  CAR finished second in their division and drew NYG (11-3) and ARI (8-6).

but the Year before Both Tampa,and Seattle,and Dallas Both won their divisions.....Again it's based on the previous years records...

The Giants and Cardinals Both finished second in thier divisions.....

It's not perfect,but in our situation  worked exactly the way the NFL wanted it...The AFC east played Both the West divisions....NFC and the AFC....Then a Game from the AFC North,and AFC south...The Dolphins Who finished last in the division Got Houston ,and Baltimore ( the teams that finished last in the division in 2007) The Patriots got the Division winners Steelers,and Colts....

Please also Note the Word TEND in my statement....

Now please excuse me,the Sleet has stopped for the moment,and I'm going to go pry my doors open on my vehicles so it will be a tad easier in the morning....

[NADS]

Parity, parity, parity...Bert Bell was all about it.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I think the biggest thing you may be missing is this: What is the difference between the 2007 squads and the 2008 squads? The QB situations. In 2007, Miami had Cleo Lemon, John Beck and the ghost of Trent Green. While Atlanta had Joey Harrington and Byron Leftwich.

Now, the Dolphins have Chad Pennington who has been a Top 8 QB in the NFL and Matt Ryan should be Rookie of the Year. It ALWAYS comes down to your quarterback. People sometimes point to the 2000 Ravens as a team that just needs a competent QB who doesn't make mistake,s but that was the exception to the rule. The QB is the most important player on the field. Without him, you go nowhere.

Sure, both these teams made some nice moves in the offseason, but does anyone see Miami at 9-5 or even above .500 with Beck at QB?

All of that aside, I do agree with you that coaching is very crucial. Look at the Bills right now. Really solid team with a terrible QB and coach that just HANDED the Jets a victory today. It scares me what Buffalo can do with a good head coach and a skilled QB.

[Spider-Dan]

but the Year before Both Tampa,and Seattle,and Dallas Both won their divisions.....Again it's based on the previous years records...

The Giants and Cardinals Both finished second in thier divisions.....

That's my point.

The argument that we benefit from a 4th-place schedule doesn't seem very convincing when you consider that BUF, the team with a 2nd-place schedule, actually got an easier schedule than us this year.

[NADS]

The cousin (Bills puke) was saying Jauron (aka Skeletor) lets his coaches call all the O and D plays.  He said Jauron was shaking his head in the closeup shot before Losman gave away the fumble for a TD so something was up.  To old cuz's credit, for all the times they show Jauron on TV, Jauron hardly ever says anything or even blinks.  I think all he does is say whether or not to go for it on 4th and 1.  Losman is pretty bad so common sense says run it, punt, and play D. 

The last time Miami had the 3-year plan Jimmy Johnson was in charge so I think Spider-Dan might be onto something as much as EDGE is about a decent QB/Coach setup.  San Fran would do good to keep Singletary and get a proven veteran.  The Titans lost today because Collins (see Fiedler) couldn't get it done but he's kept Tennessee from losing more than they would have.

[Defense54]

Lets not get ahead of ourselves. We had the easiest schedule in the league this year , I wouldn't be thinking Superbowl or bust next season guys.............

[YoFuggedaboutit]

Lets not get ahead of ourselves. We had the easiest schedule in the league this year , I wouldn't be thinking Superbowl or bust next season guys.............

Like Spider Dan said, only two of your games are affected by record.  The rest are identical to your division.  So if we had an easy schedule, so did the Jets, Pats and Bills. 

Next year, the schedule will be tough BASED ON THIS YEAR'S RECORDS.  Here's who we're looking at next year aside from our divisional matchups:

NFC South (Tampa Bay, Carolina, New Orleans and Atlanta).  That makes me shudder.

AFC South (Tennessee, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Houston).  Tennessee and Indy make me shudder.  Jacksonville is a good team having a bad season, and Houston always finds a way to beat us. 

AFC North and AFC West-  We'll probably end up facing whoever finishes first or second in that division based on where we finish.  So that will give us either Pittsburgh or Baltimore in the North and either Denver or San Diego in the West.  Pittsburgh and Baltimore scare me. 

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I think this is overrated, for two reasons:

I agree particularly when you realize that none of MIA wins were against the two teams that were scheduled base.

But I think your original post leaves out several other factors.

1.  The entire AFCE has a pretty soft schedule this year.  AFCW & NFCW are weak divisions.  There could be slippage next year when the schedule is AFCS & NFCS.

2. Your chief divisional rivals injuries this year makes last years Dolphins look like a model of perfect health and despite this is still tied with you.  Patriots have 14 players on IR.  It is not just Brady.  Adalius Thomas, Rodney Harrison, Laurence Maroney to name a few.  I am not injury whining, it is what it is.  But unless you have concluded Brady is not coming back next year it may be a bit premature to pick anyone but the Patriots to be favored to win the division next year. 

3. Pennington has done a fine job this year.  Is he the QB next year?  If not you need to expect some growing pains from Chad Henne. 

4. Some of your wins came from a trick play scheme called the Wild Cat.  While it was highly effective when first rolled out and can be credited more than the loss of Brady with Mia's win over New England, teams have learned how to effectively defend against it.  It was a brilliant move by Dan Henning.  Any time you can outcoach Bill Belichick you are doing something right.  But does Henning have a second ace up his sleeve?  Because that one won't work again next year. 

I think it is a little early to declare the Dolphins a new dominant force of the AFC.   

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

AFC North and AFC West-  We'll probably end up facing whoever finishes first or second in that division based on where we finish.  So that will give us either Pittsburgh or Baltimore in the North and either Denver or San Diego in the West.  Pittsburgh and Baltimore scare me. 

Highly unlikely the Dolphins will face the second place team in the North and West.  Most likely it will be the the first place or third place team. 

Right now it is looking like the winner of Jets-Mia will come in first, NE will come in second, loser of Jets -Mia will come in third, Bills will come in 4th. 

[Spider-Dan]

Do not take my post to mean that I believe MIA is now a championship contender.  I do not.

What I am saying is that any new coaching/management regime should be expected to have a playoff-contending (not championship-contending, just playoff-contending) team within two years.  If they don't, then that regime will never have a shot at a title.

[bsfins]

Where's I'm gonna disagree with Spider,and hoodie..Those two games can be huge....The difference between an 8-8 season,and 10- 6 possible playoffs....I feel,teams like the Saints a couple of years ago,the Bears since 2000,This years Ravens..All benefit from an easier schedule adding to the Parity of the league...
I have to Go all FYO  here...


The numbers are The difference on the win side between the Division winners,and the teams on the bottom of the division (noting Like last year the Pats going 16 -0,versus Miami's 1-15 Really skew the stats.....) and 5 years is the biggest sample size I could do, Since the past 5 years were 4 Divisions in both conferences....
I think you can micro manage out the anomalies of a certain team played a harder schedule,I feel in general that the easier schedule helps...

I agree with Hoodie,The Whole AFC East got a good break playing the 2 worst divisions in the NFL this year Both of the Divisions in the west....All our records are a bit inflated because of our easy schedules....I do think the Dolphins and jets could slide back,the Patriots,I have No clue....The Addition of Brady back into the mix....

I'm not trying to knit pick, In general I understand Dan's point.....I just feel the long term success takes time..Too many teams tend to Bounce because of the easier schedules....

[Spider-Dan]

Where's I'm gonna disagree with Spider,and hoodie..Those two games can be huge....The difference between an 8-8 season,and 10- 6 possible playoffs....

We lost those two games, and we're still in playoff contention.

I think the point still stands: any decent coaching/management staff should be able to get a team within playoff contention (tiebreakers) by their second year.