Papelbon is overrated.

[MaineDolFan]

defense is + / - ^

The general way to come to a fielding percentage is (Putouts + Assists) divided by (Putouts + Assists + Errors).

Other things can come into play such as double plays, passed balls, allowed stolen bases versus caught stealing. 

You also have to factor in the DER (Defense Efficiency Ratio) into the formula as well as all ballparks are not the same in size and demension. 

[Sunstroke]

Just going by baseball prospectus...

Def Eff, or Defensive Efficiency, is the rate at which balls put into play are converted into outs by a team's defense. Def Eff can be approximated with (1 - BABIP), if all you have is BABIP, but a team's actual Def Eff is computed with

1 - ((H + ROE - HR) / (PA - BB - SO - HBP - HR))

Currently the Marlins are ranked 23rd in MLB for defensive efficiency.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=465423

[BingeBag]

The only team that plays worse defense than Florida is Washington.  Boston has the 4th best defense in the league.

#   YEAR       TEAM   LG   PA            AB             H    BB    SO   HBP   HR   ROE DEF_EFF    PADE
23.   2009   FLO   NL   3,154   2,771   715   309   597   17   74   38   0.685   -0.02
28.   2009   BOS   AL   3,018   2,674   697   257   589   41   69   30   0.681   -1.55

[MaineDolFan]

#   YEAR       TEAM   LG   PA            AB             H    BB    SO   HBP   HR   ROE DEF_EFF    PADE
23.   2009   FLO   NL   3,154   2,771   715   309   597   17   74   38   0.685   -0.02
28.   2009   BOS   AL   3,018   2,674   697   257   589   41   69   30   0.681   -1.55

This is...what?  Makes perfect sense to grind out defensive stats without includes errors.  Nice find.

[Fau Teixeira]

This is...what?  Makes perfect sense to grind out defensive stats without includes errors.  Nice find.

this number makes more sense to me from a statistical standpoint and from what it represents to real-life than just a straight errors count.

seems like a ratio of balls put into play compared to how many of those are converted into outs is a better measure of defense

and i just looked it up.. that number does include errors:

ROE
Reached On Error: when a batter reaches first base as a direct result of a fielding error.

[MaineDolFan]

I have no idea how anyone could find a formula on defense that doesn't include errors as "making sense."

That is like saying "let's not count tackles in football."  Or not including home runs in batting average because they leave the ball park.

Defense in baseball is pretty simple.  The ball in play is either a hit or an out.  If some reaches base on a play that should have been an out it's an error.  A runner on base can cost you a run...which can cost you a game.  Just like missing a tackle can cost you a score. 

I can come up with a formula that would make the Washington Nationals appear to have the best pitching staff in the league.  Does that make it accurate?

You either field your position well or you don't.

(Putouts + Assists) divided by (Putouts + Assists + Errors) is very simple.  I tend to err on the side of people that know that game far better than I when deciding on statistical relevance.  There are more effective ways to gauge an individual player.  But when you're talking about 9 guys working together for three outs...this is really all you need.

[Fau Teixeira]

the formula includes errors

[MaineDolFan]

ROE
Reached On Error: when a batter reaches first base as a direct result of a fielding error.

Reaching first on an error does not include all errors, thus it is in incomplete stat.  Again, it's like judging a pitcher on win / loss only.  I can point out games this weekend alone where an error occured during a force out throw to second.  Boston lost a game Saturday by one run - a run that scored due to a poor throw, and an error, on a force at second.  That wouldn't factor into this formula.  Reaching first on an error is one thing - it doesn't account for 100% of the errors in a game.

[MaineDolFan]

If we're going by how MLB actually judges their game, and tossing in the Sox to compare to the Marlins (I will also toss in the top and bottom defensive teams to compare):

Team   LEAGUE   G   INN   TC   PO   A   E   DP   PB   SB   CS   DER   FPCT   

1. Toronto Blue Jays
 AL 83 748.2 3200 2246 924 30 84 8 47 28 .7066 .991

 12. Boston Red Sox
 AL 81 722.1 2943 2167 731 45 62 7 74 15 .6954 .985

28. Florida Marlins
 NL 83 744.0 3045 2232 753 60 54 3 84 21 .7046 .980

30. Washington Nationals
 NL 80 705.1 3057 2116 868 73 68 6 55 20 .6973 .976 

All that being said - and I am as guilty as anyone else because I've allowed this thread to become derailed - I'm going to lock it soon as it's way off topic.  The thread was about my personal opinion that Papelbon is not  an elite closer, but a good one, and that he is over-rated.  Not how defensive teams are judged.  I brought up defensive rankings as a way to show the potential difference in closers.  Boston has a better defense, Papelbon closes out more games.  I'll say again, one more time - give Papelbon 30 games to close playing for Florida and he'll blow 10-15% of those saves based on how the Marlins play defense versus Boston's defensive unit.

[Brian Fein]

So, I'm curious, why all the distaste for Papelbon?  I see your discussion but I think he's still a top-tier closer.  Do you think he has declined this season, or do you think he's always been a sheep in wolf's clothing?  Seemed like last season he was unhittable.  Do you think he would be better suited in a starter or middle relief role?

[SportsChick]

It looks as though he's changed something... trying to protect his arm maybe?

[MaineDolFan]

I think I need to be clear here because I'm not sure I am being understood:

I think Papelbon is an above average pitcher.

He's never really been "un-hittable."  You want un-hittable?  Look up Mo with the Yankees in his hey day.  Or Eric Gagne during his stretch.  When you faced those guys you did one of three things:  struck out, popped up to second or weekly grounded out to short.

Papelbon's control is all over the place.  He's walking guys left and right, almost a walk per inning right now.  For a guy that works one inning at a time, and during times when you're leading by a run, that's pretty freakin' bad.  He is getting hit very hard.  Luckily for the Sox, thus far, those hits have been catchable because you have above average athletes in the outfield. 

Papelbon keeps messing with his delivery.  He's from the chest.  No, wait.  The waist.  Oh, shit.  He's back to the chest.  GREAT relievers have zero wasted motion.  He keeps tinkering with his pitches.  He wants a slider and is using it.  Wait, he's not.  Shit, there is that slider again.  He threw a change up the other day.

ELITE closers, the GREAT ONES, generally have one pitch with the occasional out pitch.  I saw one outing where Papelbon used two different fastballs, a slider and a change.

Look INSIDE the guy's numbers.  The last ten games?

8 and a third innings pitched.  Four saves earned.  Blew one, took a loss in one.  8 hits allowed. Four walks issued. 

Those are elite numbers?  People focus so much on blown saves.  10 games, four saves, one blown save, one loss.  Those are elite numbers?  8 hits, four walks...that's 12 runners on base.  IN EIGHT INNINGS!  Those are not the numbers of an elite closer.  And that ten game sample is what you'll find when you break the season into 10's. 

36 innings pitched.  31 hits allowed.  17 walks issued. 

The guy is a darned good pitcher.  He is very good.  In a game full of crappy ass stoppers, he's one of the best out there.  But a lot of what he accomplishes is not his own doing.  A chunk of Papelbon is smoke and mirrors.