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Author Topic: The worst 100 RBI season ever - skewed stats in baseball  (Read 4225 times)
Denver_Bronco
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« on: September 28, 2009, 10:28:50 pm »

David Ortiz and his .237 batting average are headed for guess what? 100 RBI's!

http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=120074

This is a glaring example of how your place in the lineup, regardless of how productive you actually are, will skew your stats.  Your productivity is actually of product of the guys who bat in front of you.

Take Derek Jeter and his .333 average.  Jeter bats 1st this year and has roughly 70 RBI.  Had Derek Jeter batted 3rd or 4th in the Yankee lineup, his RBI total would effectively double based on his batting average. So Jeter realistically is a 130-140 RBI a year guy, based on his career batting average (around .320).


A clear example of over and under valuing the effectiveness of a player in relation to batting  order.
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Bronco: An unbroken or imperfectly broken range horse of western No. America
Donkey: Descendant of the African wild ass that has been used as a beast of burden since 4000BC.
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BingeBag
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2009, 10:37:32 pm »

When has anyone valued RBI's in choosing a players worth? Get on fan graphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/).
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EDGECRUSHER
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« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2009, 05:31:15 am »

When has anyone valued RBI's in choosing a players worth? Get on fan graphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/).

Pretty much every single MVP voter, which is why Teixeira is going to place a close 2nd to Joe Mauer, if not actually win the damn award.

RBI are like Wins to a voter, essentially a team stat that is pushed to the forefront.
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MaineDolFan
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MaineDolFan
« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2009, 02:40:26 pm »

D_B - I think you need to actually look into David's stats before you start flapping off at the gums.

1:  Ortiz has hit everywhere in the line up this year from 3rd to 7th.  He has not hit in the same spot, he's been moved around.  So who in the order was "protecting" him?  JD Drew?  'Tek?  Lugo?  Nick Green?  Ortiz was in and out of the 4 slot prior to the V-Mart trade...and hasn't hit there since.  Last time I checked Boston's order was Ells, Dusty, V-Mart, Youkilis, Bay and then maybe Ortiz (and that if Lowell isn't in the order).  So there goes that part of your stance.
2:  Try looking into David's number since 6/1/09.

David started very slowly and has been pretty damned good since about the 1st week of June.  Let's see...if I were to judge a player's worth do I take into account April 15 - June 1...or June 1 to October?  Hmmmm.  What would be a better sampling size?   

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Denver_Bronco
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2009, 02:58:13 pm »

D_B - I think you need to actually look into David's stats before you start flapping off at the gums.

David started very slowly and has been pretty damned good since about the 1st week of June.  Let's see...if I were to judge a player's worth do I take into account April 15 - June 1...or June 1 to October?  Hmmmm.  What would be a better sampling size?   


His average was about .200 around June 1st, so you are telling me that he has hit around maybe .265 since June 1st  ballooning his average to .235, and you want to me thats pretty damn good for your clean up hitter? 

By the way, this Minny/Detroit game is absolutely epic.

All I want to see is Verlander come out and get hammered tonight and get this thing tied up.  Minnesota deserves this division.
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Bronco: An unbroken or imperfectly broken range horse of western No. America
Donkey: Descendant of the African wild ass that has been used as a beast of burden since 4000BC.
Jackass: Someone who doesn't know the difference.
SportsChick
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2009, 04:04:44 pm »

He's not the clean up hitter, did you not just read that from Maine?
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I'm the girl that makes men jealous of my husband

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Denver_Bronco
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2009, 06:21:28 pm »

He's not the clean up hitter, did you not just read that from Maine?
http://www.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20040902&content_id=845726&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=null


BOSTON -- For the first time in 25 games, Red Sox manager Terry Francona was forced to post a lineup that didn't have David Ortiz hitting cleanup. The slugging designated hitter was sidelined with what appeared to be bursitis in his right shoulder, an injury that caused by an awkward tumble Ortiz took in the fifth inning on Sunday afternoon against the Tigers while being thrown out at the plate.

Should I keep going back through the game logs or do you just not watch the games?
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Bronco: An unbroken or imperfectly broken range horse of western No. America
Donkey: Descendant of the African wild ass that has been used as a beast of burden since 4000BC.
Jackass: Someone who doesn't know the difference.
EDGECRUSHER
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2009, 08:31:11 pm »

Average isn't everything, just look at Nick Swisher to see that there is value beyond it.

A few weeks back I saw a stat that said Ortiz had the most Homeruns in baseball since June 1st or something to that effect. Him and A-Rod must've found their old steroid stash right around that time.
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SportsChick
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2009, 09:17:25 pm »

DB your posting an article from 2004. Unless we all entered the way back machine and I missed the memo, we're in 2009 right now.
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I'm the girl that makes men jealous of my husband

I hate Red Sox and Patriots bandwagon fans. They give the rest of us a bad name
YoFuggedaboutit
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2009, 09:33:37 pm »

Unless we all entered the way back machine and I missed the memo, we're in 2009 right now.

Wow, surprised you know about that site.  Not too many people do. 
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Denver_Bronco
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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2009, 05:46:57 am »

Well I think that we can all agree that Ortiz sucks either way. And he certainly did hit cleanup numerous times this year unitl they picked up Victor Martinez.
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Bronco: An unbroken or imperfectly broken range horse of western No. America
Donkey: Descendant of the African wild ass that has been used as a beast of burden since 4000BC.
Jackass: Someone who doesn't know the difference.
Sunstroke
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Stop your bloodclot cryin'!


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« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2009, 08:00:09 am »

Well I think that we can all agree that Ortiz sucks either way.

Well I think we can all agree that you were talking out your ass...

The 5-year old article was a nice touch though! Grin


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"There's no such thing as objectivity. We're all just interpreting signals from the universe and trying to make sense of them. Dim, shaky, weak, staticky little signals that only hint at the complexity of a universe that we cannot begin to comprehend."
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Phishfan
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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2009, 08:34:25 am »

HAHAHA.
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Sunstroke
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Stop your bloodclot cryin'!


Email
« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2009, 09:06:42 am »


That's just like you, Denver...get called out for posting BS (5 year old BS, much less) and you change subjects to something completely irrelevant to the discussion. You're slightly less annoying than a crying baby on an airplane, but only because I like suffer babies more than fools.

Moderators...can I get a determination please...would the above post be considered name-calling or a personal attack? I'm all about self-realization today.

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"There's no such thing as objectivity. We're all just interpreting signals from the universe and trying to make sense of them. Dim, shaky, weak, staticky little signals that only hint at the complexity of a universe that we cannot begin to comprehend."
~ Micah Leggat
YoFuggedaboutit
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« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2009, 09:08:48 am »

That's just like you, Denver...get called out for posting BS (5 year old BS, much less) and you change subjects to something completely irrelevant to the discussion. You're slightly less annoying than a crying baby on an airplane, but only because I like suffer babies more than fools.

Moderators...can I get a determination please...would the above post be considered name-calling or a personal attack? I'm all about self-realization today.

I'm not a mod, but I wouldn't consider the above post name calling or a personal attack.

However, I think this thread has run its course, and if I was a mod, I'd banish it to the Land of the Locked.
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