MaineDolFan
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« on: September 30, 2009, 11:03:18 am » |
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I know that I only did something like 3 PT's this year, I apologize for that. I didn't realize how many per diem shifts I would have been picking up in the hospital above and beyond my "real" job.
Taking a look at all potential playoff teams (and including Atlanta and the Twins) I have come up with my top five choices to win the whole thing. I have my reasons why they will, and won't, win the World Series. With all due respect to the Angels, Dodgers, Rockies, Twins and Braves, the following teams are the teams I feel have the best shot to take the title.
Here we go.
#1. New York Yankees
Why they'll win: The Yankees have something they can run out twice a series in the opening five game set, and three times in a best of seven, that they have not had in a long time: A true ace in CC Sabathia. CC Sabathia basically locks them down for at least one win in a five game match up. Two wins in a best of seven. Those wins dramatically increase your odds when you have solid #2 and #3 guys in Andy and AJ. With the offense the Yankees are able to run out there they match up well with almost anyone else's 2's / 3's. Phil Hughes and Mariano Rivera lock down 8th and 9th innings. While some of the hitting will slump in the playoffs, as all teams do, it's unlikely that you'll keep a balanced attack 1-9 off the boards for long.
Why they won't win: AJ Burnett and Andy Pettitte are very good pitchers, however they are completely hittable. Boston, Detroit and Anaheim all present pitching that match up favorably with New York's #2 and #3 option. New York is still up in the air with their option at #4. Joba tossed a decent start at Boston his last time out, although he was facing a Red Sox line up that had five of it's normal starting nine on the bench to start the game. New York's bullpen was okay in the regular season, I'm not sure I would want Coke on the mound to hold a one run lead in the 7th inning against a team as balanced as the Angels or Red Sox.
#2. St. Louis Cardinals
Why they'll win: When looking at a rotation in the playoffs there are two types of pitchers. A pitcher that you see and say "they are good...but" and pitchers that scare you. St. Louis has two guys that would flat out scare me in a five or seven game series. Those two guys are Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Both of these guys are beasts that go long into games and are deep into games and present equal challenges to left and right handed batters. With either of those two on the mound taking a lead into the 5th inning or later, the guy is basically a lock. On offense, St. Louis presents challenges to any rotation. The addition of Matt Holliday was brilliant. DeRosa has held his own at 3rd. Although it's been quiet, Glaus was activated in time to be eligible for the post season roster. His bat could be a difference maker in that line up. Franklin is about as lights out as they come in the closer role, knocking out 38 saves with an ERA under 2.00.
Why they won't win: Sometimes opponents get lucky and get by your aces to steal a game. Pineiro had a good year but doesn't scare anyone, especially a good and balanced line up such as Philly or L.A. If you're looking for Smoltz in a deciding game you're running uphill into a stiff breeze. While St. Louis has good pop on offense they go have some gaps including Rasmus and the inconsistent Ludwick. The thing that makes me the most nervous about the Cardinals is the bullpen after Franklin and McClellan. There are a lot of innings in the bullpen as the Cardinal pitching 3-5 had issues getting out of the 5th inning at times this season.
#3. Boston Red Sox
Why they'll win: Boston has something that only one other team in the playoffs have and that is two lock down, game changing pitchers...and both of whom that have multiple World Series experiences to fall on. When right, Lester and Beckett are flat out unhittable. Both horses cruise into the 7th inning, or later, on a regular basis. Boston's offense is a balanced attack that does well. Speed at the top and bottom of the order, power and average. Two mid season moves have helped form things in two ways for the Sox: V-Mart is an RBI machine and locks up the #3 slot. Alex Gonzalez has been surprising with his bat since coming over from the Reds. What hasn't surprised anyone is that wizard like glove locking down the SS position that, on defense, literally cost Boston 8-10 wins earlier in the season. Boston's bullpen, although showing a few cracks along the way, remains the best of any team in the playoffs.
Why they won't win: Once you get outside of Beckett and Lester there are a lot of question marks. Even if you get a solid outing out of Matsuzaka, that outing is generally over by the 5th inning or early 6th. That is a lot of pressure to put on a bullpen with a lot of innings under it's belt this season. Last night's start aside, Clay Buchholz has been fair outstanding in his resurgence this season...and he has zero playoff experience. Boston's bullpen 7th to 9th inning is outstanding. The monkey wrench gets tossed in when a starter gets knocked out early and they dip into it too early. Long relief is an issue. Martinez is a huge upgrade at catcher for the Red Sox but, like Varitek, he is run on too easily. The Yankees and Angels have run on both catchers this season at will. Speed kills and if you can't keep a single to a single, bad things happen. And quickly.
#4. Philadelphia Phillies
Why they'll win: Check out the following numbers: 43, 35, 31, 33, 21. Of the starting nine the Phillies run out, day after day, five of those players have over 20 home runs. Four over 30. That's power. Now check out these numbers: 31, 24, 23. Three guys, all in the top five of the batting order, with double digit steals. The Phillies have an offense that will give a lot of starting pitchers headaches. They hit for all kinds of power, they hit for average and, once on the basepaths, they steal. A lot. A money ball offense that can small ball you to death, if needed. Factor in a pretty darned good defense and you could spell trouble for a lot of teams.
Why they won't win: If the Phillies offense goes cold, which happens to the best of offenses once October rolls around, they won't last long. I haven't seen any indication this season that Hamels will return to form. An ERA well north of 4.00, he has been very hittable all season. Cliff Lee came in like a house on fire and has seen his ERA, and losses, climb. Blanton can be a bulldog, he has proven that. And he can be a junk pitcher as well. I'm not sure if Martinez has proven valuable enough to carry on the post season roster. What carried the Phillies last year was Hamels, a lights out bullpen and timely hitting. The bullpen has been a horror show. The pitching is off and on. If the hitting cools...so will the Phillies.
#5. Detroit Tigers
Why they'll win: Verlander, Jackson. Verlander, Jackson. Verlander, Jackson. Keep saying that over and over again. Tampa Bay made one of the dumbest moves since the Mets traded them Kazmir by sending Jackson packing. This kid is electric and has great stuff. The prospect of facing each one of those pitchers twice in a seven game series has to be scary. Washburn, if healthy, gives Detroit a fantastic 1, 2, 3. Detroit has the type of pitching where one minute you're starting a five game series with the Tigers. The next moment you blinked and you're out, having been swept and losing all three games 3-2. Detroit plays sound defense behind that pitching. If they get timely hitting on top of it, they'll be tough to beat.
Why they won't win: On offense the Tigers don't have much to scare people with outside of Cabrera. They don't run the bases particularly well. They don't have a ton of power. They only have one guy in their starting nine hitting over .300. The bullpen is sketchy at best.
That is what I have, discuss.
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