The 2010 Red Sox have more holes than swiss cheese.

[MaineDolFan]

This is an interesting time to be a Red Sox fan.  Heading into this offseason they have more concerns to address than ever before.  Very large concerns.  The 2009 team that won 95 games was a very good team...but in no way built to succeed in the playoffs.  It was a team built to win a bunch of games and then hope to catch lighting in a bottle come play off time.

If I were GM...

Maine's concerns heading into the offseason are many.  I'm going to start with the offense, which could be an easy fix.  Could be.

Boston's core is pretty damned good.  Heading into next season Boston knows that they have their legit table setting in Ellsbury and a super solid #2 in Petey.  VMart holds down a solid 3, Youkilis could be the best hitter on the team perfect at 4.

That is where things get very dicey.

In order for the rest of your line up to be successful you need to have balance and protection. 

I love Jason Bay.  Love the kid.  I think Boston needs to let him walk.  I see a lot of things between Jason Bay and JD Drew that are too similar for comfort.  Bay started 2009 like a house on fire and then literally vanished for a month and half be ween June and July, only to heat up a little in August again.  Everyone that is screaming for Bay to be resigned seems to forget that he had under five RBI for a six week period - and in the dead of summer.  Bay's defense also leaves a lot to be desired. 

JD Drew did not put up the overall numbers that Bay did.  However he was generally healthy, had monster OBP numbers and is one of the most underrated defensive outfielders in the game.  He works pitchers to death and rarely strikes out where Bay is a strike out league leader.  The positives that Bay brings, the power numbers, won't be worth the staggering amount of money he'll seek. 

If Boston signs Bay that will give them two staggering contracts for two outfielders, neither of whom are worth that money.

Boston can't fall into that trap.

Ellsbury's defensive index was surprising, he is a below average defensive outfielder on the road and just barely average defensive outfielder at Fenway.  A lot of the diving and running catches make him appear to be better than he is.  Most of that ranking is due to his lack of arm strength in deep fields, like the one at Fenway.

What Maine would do...

Move Ellsbury to left field.  The defensive shifts that take place for balls to left field will help shorten Ellsbury's game.  He'll get to the bloopers and won't need to play in, he can chase down anything in left / center. 

Make a move for Carlos Beltran.  The Mets were practically begging teams to take him last season.  Not because he isn't a great player but because his contract is staggering, still.  Beltran could be had for one MLB ready guy and a handful of low A prospects.  Beltran automatically improves your overall outfield defense and provides that bat the Sox desperately need behind Youkilis.  And you don't need to clean out your system to get him.  Beltran's contract runs to 2012 and he the following years will be the largest chunks of the $119 million that the Mets signed him for.  They (Mets) are finding a tough time with financial flexibility due to that contract.  Unlike in NY, Beltran won't have to shoulder the load offensively.

This brings me to a problem that has no easy answer:  Mike Lowell and David Ortiz.  I will start with Lowell.

I believe that Lowell holds value for a National League team that needs veteran leadership.  I don't think the Sox will get much for him, but the respectful thing to do would be to trade him versus giving him an outright release.  I would do this and I expect this to happen.  My wish list at third base, and the players I would pursue, would be as follows:

Chone Figgins would be my first choice, although his age would make me hesitant to go above a three year deal.  Figgins has a cannon and good instincts at third, he is a defensive upgrade over Lowell at this stage in his career.  Although used as Anaheim's lead off hitter, I think he is actually best suited for the 7 slot.  And this is where I would plunk him with Boston.  This balances Boston's line up in the area of average and puts speed on as well.

If Figgins is out of Boston's financial wheelhouse I would go in a unexpected direction and chase down Jack Wilson.  I don't see any chance in hell that the Pirates exercise their option on Wilson, they will spend the 600k and buy him out.  I believe Wilson could be a seamless move to third base.  I also think this gives Boston a lot of in-field depth as my plan would also have Boston resigning Alex Gonzalez.  Jed Lowrie can play SS or 3B, as can Wilson.  This gives you three players that can effectively play two of the most important defensive positions on the field.  Wilson or Figgins would add balance to Boston's offensive attack.

Boston's offense desperately needs balance.  They need better power in the later stages of the line up, they need more speed and desperately needs higher averages across the board.  These changes do all of that.

David Ortiz presents an issue.  As DH's go, Ortiz's overall numbers for 2009 were better than the majority of the DH hitters in the league.  Even with his vanishing act from opening day until June Ortiz still almost hit 100 RBI.  I strongly suspect that Ortiz is going to be okay for next year.  What would not surprise me to see happen, however, is for Boston to make a play for Johnny Damon in the offseason with the intent of making Damon a primary DH that can also provide assistance in the OF.  The problem with Boston's bench in 2009 was depth.  Successful teams need a player in the DH role that can assume additional duties while on the field.

Boston's bullpen is going to be fine.  One of the best bullpens in the game in 2009, that will stand true in 2010.  There are hundreds of RHP and LHP available to round things out.  In general terms I wouldn't change much.

Starting pitching -

I think that you are seeing the writing on the wall for Josh Beckett.  This is based on nothing more than speculation on my end, this isn't anything formal.  I haven't talked shop with him.  And, if I had, I wouldn't put in on a message board.  However I am very doubtful that Boston is going to be willing to ante up the money for Beckett that he is going to want when he contract is up.  There is something that isn't quite right.  He started '09 fine but as the season went on was getting hammered.  He isn't commanding his curve, his offspeed stuff wasn't dynamic.  Therefore he isn't blowing anyone away with the heat.  I think that Boston feels very comfortable handing the role of "ace" to Jon Lester.  I also think they are going to make a run, and break the bank for, King Felix.

Boston has the prospects and players to make this happen.  I have a feeling that it will.  I also think it'll cost the Red Sox Clay Buccholz in the long run, but I feel it will be worth it.

'Phew.  I am tired.  That is a lot of tinkering.

My vision of Boston's 2010 line up:

1:  Ellsbury (LF)
2:  Petey (2B)
3:  VMart (C)
4:  Youkilis (1B)
5:  Beltran (CF)
6:  Wilson (SS)
7:  Figgins (3B)
8:  Ortiz (DH)
9:  Drew (RF)

My vision of Boston's starting rotation:

1:  Lester
2:  Hernández
3:  Beckett
4:  Matsusaka
5:  Ben Sheets (?)

I think if Sheets worked out and could be moved up a slot you might see Boston move Beckett before the deadline next season.

Based on what I think it would take to sign Wilson and Figgins, along with taking on Beltran's salary (and dumping some on the way), my moves would increase Boston's overall payroll by less than 17 million for next season.  Beltran's salary for 2011 would move that to a 20 million increase for 2011, however you would also be looking at Beckett and Ortiz being off the roster by that time.

[SportsChick]

I think the Red Sox bandwagon will have a lot of deserters next year and that's just fine with me.

What are your thoughts on the closer position? Stick with Paps? move to Bard? Someone else?

[Sunstroke]

Maine's concerns heading into the offseason are many. 

I agree with everything except your using the third person to refer to yourself.

...freakin' diva!

[MaineDolFan]

What are your thoughts on the closer position? Stick with Paps? move to Bard? Someone else?

It depends.  I truly feel that Boston is going to make a run at, and land, Hernández.  The package to get him will be staggering.  I think if Seattle wants a closer Boston will lean towards sending them Papelbon before they send Bard.  If Seattle wants Papelbon as part of that package, fine.  I think that there are enough stop gap closers out there for one season.  Give Bard spot duties during the year and then make him your closer 2011 moving forward. 

What I think could happen is that Boston sends Papelbon away in a Hernández deal and re-signs Wagner. 

I will be shocked if Boston doesn't do an impact move like this one.  I know all the talk is about Joe Mauer and how the Twins will deal him this coming season.  I really don't see Boston being a player in that.  Rumors are popping up again about Hanley.  People might be surprised how close Florida came to dealing him last year.  With the issues he had with teammates this past season he could be had as well.  Not sure Boston will go down that road.

I really think they will land a top line pitcher.  And I think they are willing to give away everything and then some for King Felix.

I have also heard interesting stories about Cabby in Detroit, the Tiger brass being done with him and how they are listening to offers.  Not sure that is a good fit, not as long as the kid's head is not right.

I think Boston's two big moves this offseason will be Beltran and Felix.  And Papelbon might very well have to be included in one of those deals.

[MaineDolFan]

I agree with everything except your using the third person to refer to yourself.

...freakin' diva!

Maine doesn't appreciate this at all.  No...no he doesn't.

Maine is mad at you.

[Sunstroke]

Perhaps this thread could be more appropriately titled "Maine's wish list."

Hanley will still be a Marlin next season, and King Felix will still be a Mariner. I think you should put Mauer, Utley and Lincecum on the list as well...can't hurt to go full-hog for this sort of pipe dreaming.

On second thought...I sure hope my Padres sign A-Rod away from the Yankees this offseason.

[MaineDolFan]

Of course it's my wish list.

And I am willing to bet you a cup of coffee Felix is pitching for Boston next season.

[Sunstroke]

Of course it's my wish list.

And I am willing to bet you a cup of coffee Felix is pitching for Boston next season.

Coffee's free...I'll bet ya a beer.

Felix is the cornerstone of the Seattle franchise right now...no chance they get rid of him.

[MaineDolFan]

^Unless they are able to secure a pitcher that they feel will eventually be a #1 along with upgrades at other positions.

It's not like Boston's roster and system wouldn't be able to do that.