Playoff chances

[dolphins4life]

It was absolutely the correct decision.  The Colts were probably going to score from anywhere on the field.

PLAY WITH GUTS!!!!

Better to go for broke then putting in the hands of your defense.

[dolphins4life]

With this thread, let's keep updating and debating every week until we are eliminated, then we can lock it down. 

[YoFuggedaboutit]

Looks like the Pittsburgh game is going to be tough after all.  They lose to Cincy and are now in a dogfight with them for the division..... and in any tiebreaker, Cincy has the two game sweep over them.

[Phishfan]

It was absolutely the correct decision.  The Colts were probably going to score from anywhere on the field.

PLAY WITH GUTS!!!!

Better to go for broke then putting in the hands of your defense.

For it to be the correct call it sure worked out badly. I disagree witht he decision completely. They gave the game away by not punting.

[Dave Gray]

Denver is correct, I think.

We really need to beat the Pats to get in, and we didn't.

We need to win out -- if we do that, we probably get in.  If we don't, we don't.

[Tenshot13]

I agree, we need to win out to get in.  We would also need NE to lose at least one more time, to a team not called the Dolphins.  Our chances seem unlikely when looked at like that, but seeing our remaining schedule and the Pats remaining schedule, I like our chances.

[JVides]

It was absolutely the correct decision.  The Colts were probably going to score from anywhere on the field.

PLAY WITH GUTS!!!!

Better to go for broke then putting in the hands of your defense.

If we can use a poker analogy, going for it on your side of the field is akin to going all in holding two pair.  Yeah, you're likely to win with the hand, but go all in?  On your side of the field, you punt.  Get past the 50, do whatever you want.

[fyo]

If we can use a poker analogy, going for it on your side of the field is akin to going all in holding two pair.  Yeah, you're likely to win with the hand, but go all in?  On your side of the field, you punt.  Get past the 50, do whatever you want.

I'm with the "right choice" group here. Coaches should go for it on fourth down FAR more often than they do, but they don't for one simple reason: CYA. If it fails, they get all the blame. If they punt, go for the "safe" choice (even if it's the WRONG one, the one least likely to give the team a Win), they won't get blamed. "Well, he trusted his defense to step up.". Blah Blah Blah.

Manning had just shown, TWICE, that he could march the field and score in 2 minutes. What on EARTH makes you think he wouldn't have done it again?

The odds of New England converting the fourth and two against Indy's weak-ass defensive line gave the Patriots the best shot at winning. They lost, but that doesn't make the coaching decision wrong. (Although you'll always find people who say lame cliché crap like "well, they lost, so it WAS wrong". Bull, you make the decision with the information you have at the time -- and that's how a decision should be evaluated afterwards as well).

[JVides]

^^^You also read TMQ, huh?

I also advocate going for it on fourth down, but not from my 28 yard line.  On the opponent's side of the 50, I'm all for it.  In some cases, even between the 40 yard lines, I'm good with it.  As I posted in another thread, the Colts had scored on 4 of 13 drives (to that point).  They were down their best running back.  Garcon had 3 catches on 11 passes thrown his way.  Everyone not named "Wayne" was under control, to an extent.  It's no foregone conclusion that Manning would have driven 70 yards on NE with zero time outs and a smidge over 2 minutes, even if he'd already done it twice.  People still kick off to Ginn after he took 2 to the house against the Jets.  (Obviously, Ginn is not in Manning's class in...anything...but I mean doing it and doing it again are two different things).  You punt because it's difficult to drive a team 70-80 yards with zero margin for error, no matter how good you are.

Were I Belechik, though, and was hell bent on going for it, I wouldn't have gone empty backfield, either.  I'd have wanted a running threat, if only to keep the linebackers looking for the dive play or the draw.  I give the man credit, though.  That took stones.

[dolfan13]

not sure you can compare henne to brady or freeman to manning...

seriously, up with less than 2 minutes left and the opponent only has 1 timeout left, run the ball and punt.

its easy to have big balls when you have brady throwing passes for you.

[JVides]

its easy to have big balls when you have brady throwing passes for you.

That's it, I guess.  You think with Brady and Moss there's no chance you'll fail.  I can't really fault him for going for it.  I just know I wouldn't have.

[fyo]

^^^You also read TMQ, huh?

Sometimes. Not out this week, so I don't know what he'll have to say about this particular instance. People always seem to like pointing out (perceived) faults in others, so I'm not sure what his verdict will be.

True, though, he has been on the "go for it on fourth" bandwagon for along time. I'm not as radical in my 4th down mentality as he is, though. His arguments (for the extreme 4th-down "go for it" belief) are based on probabilities in lower-level football and theoretical calculations based on extrapolations of very, very few attempts at the pro level. The advancednflstats guys, on the other hand, produce some sound numbers based on a very large sample size. Easterbrook (TMQ) apparently advocates going for it on 4th and very long, even on your own half, late in the game when behind. Problem is, there just aren't enough cases of that in the NFL to get any kind of real insight. You also have to think that the few cases that exist might well be biased...

Were I Belechik, though, and was hell bent on going for it, I wouildn't have gone empty backfield, either.

Oh, I think you're absolutely right that he went with the wrong play call(s). While always open to second-guessing and the 20/20 hindsight of Monday Morning Quarterbacks (hello Peter King!), I think Belichick as much as admitted it when he said he hadn't decided to go for it on 4th before they got there. Had he KNOWN he was going to go for it, his decision on 3rd down would have been influenced. Imagine if he had RUN on both plays -- or at least on 3rd down, which would have been a likely choice if 4th down was in play (and since Indy wouldn't have known it, a play-action pass would have been my choice).

[raptorsfan29]

We are as of right now 1 game out of the playoff picture. Anything is possible

[Dave Gray]

Update:

I think that the easier route into the playoffs is not as the Wildcard, but as the division winner.  If we beat New England in two weeks, we'll clinch the tiebreakers.  We're also lucky enough to play several of the teams with which we may be in the wildcard hunt.

Give it 2 weeks and we'll have a much, much clearer picture.  It may take winning out, but if we lose one, depending on where that loss comes, we can still get in with a little help.  Some of the wildcard possibilities play each other in the coming weeks, so we'll see.

[masterfins]

I agree DG, I think the only way we get in the playoffs is as divisional winner.  Which  means we need help from other teams beating the Pats.  As well as the Fins need to keep winning.