Playoff chances

[Dave Gray]

The Ravens lost last night, which puts Miami only one game back from the wildcard, which Jacksonville now holds and who Miami plays this week.  So, essentially we could take over the wildcard spot this week with a win.

I don't think this is correct yet.  I think we still need Baltimore to lose another game.

The Dolphins don't control their own destiny yet.  They will need specific losses by the Patriots, any loss by the Ravens, or multiple losses by the Broncos, in addition to winning out to get it.

I think it's likely that Baltimore will lose another game at some point, and if we win out, we'll probably get in, but I don't believe it's a mathematical lock just yet.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I don't think this is correct yet.  I think we still need Baltimore to lose another game.

The Dolphins don't control their own destiny yet.  They will need specific losses by the Patriots, any loss by the Ravens, or multiple losses by the Broncos, in addition to winning out to get it.

I think it's likely that Baltimore will lose another game at some point, and if we win out, we'll probably get in, but I don't believe it's a mathematical lock just yet.

If Denver, Ravens, Mia all win out (and NE wins the division) the 6th spot between MIA and Ravens would be SOV as there was no head to head, conf would be a tie, and not enough common games. 

[Dave Gray]

The Yahoo playoff generator disagrees with you.

[Tenshot13]

You're right Dave, the Ravens hold the tie-breaker ahead of the Dolphins right now.

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/7419/ravens-loss-opens-door-for-fins-jets

[fyo]

You're right Dave, the Ravens hold the tie-breaker ahead of the Dolphins right now.

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/7419/ravens-loss-opens-door-for-fins-jets

Not clear from that article, at all.

Baltimore is listed ahead of the Dolphins simply because they have WON more of their conference games, which is the first relevant tiebreaker. However, they have LOST as many conference games as the Dolphins... so if both teams win out, their conference records will be the same.

(The Ravens are 6-4 in conference games, the Dolphins 4-4.)

In the event of both teams winning out, a tiebreaker between those two clubs would come down to SOV and SOS. Outside of divisions, those are a total MESS and could fluctuate wildly week to week.

If it comes down to a 9-7 tiebreaker, the Ravens get the Wild Card (since all our remaining games are conference games).

All that ignores the Steelers and Jets, of course, who are also in the running at 6-6. What's WORSE, if more than 2 teams are tied at 10-6, the Jaguars are back in the running -- and look to grab the Wild Card with an unbeatable conference record. Fortunately, the Jags have what's quite likely the hardest schedule to end the season (Miami, Indianapolis, New England... and Cleveland).

[Tenshot13]

Not clear from that article, at all.

Baltimore is listed ahead of the Dolphins simply because they have WON more of their conference games, which is the first relevant tiebreaker. However, they have LOST as many conference games as the Dolphins... so if both teams win out, their conference records will be the same.

(The Ravens are 6-4 in conference games, the Dolphins 4-4.)

In the event of both teams winning out, a tiebreaker between those two clubs would come down to SOV and SOS. Outside of divisions, those are a total MESS and could fluctuate wildly week to week.

If it comes down to a 9-7 tiebreaker, the Ravens get the Wild Card (since all our remaining games are conference games).

All that ignores the Steelers and Jets, of course, who are also in the running at 6-6. What's WORSE, if more than 2 teams are tied at 10-6, the Jaguars are back in the running -- and look to grab the Wild Card with an unbeatable conference record. Fortunately, the Jags have what's quite likely the hardest schedule to end the season (Miami, Indianapolis, New England... and Cleveland).

I'm going to stop trying.  All this shit makes my head hurt. 

[Tepop84]

best case the dolphins finish 2-2 so tiebreakers wont matter.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Not clear from that article, at all.

Baltimore is listed ahead of the Dolphins simply because they have WON more of their conference games, which is the first relevant tiebreaker. However, they have LOST as many conference games as the Dolphins... so if both teams win out, their conference records will be the same.

(The Ravens are 6-4 in conference games, the Dolphins 4-4.)

In the event of both teams winning out, a tiebreaker between those two clubs would come down to SOV and SOS. Outside of divisions, those are a total MESS and could fluctuate wildly week to week.

If it comes down to a 9-7 tiebreaker, the Ravens get the Wild Card (since all our remaining games are conference games).

Yup.  I agree so far, then your analysis goes weird.

All that ignores the Steelers and Jets, of course, who are also in the running at 6-6. What's WORSE, if more than 2 teams are tied at 10-6, the Jaguars are back in the running -- and look to grab the Wild Card with an unbeatable conference record. Fortunately, the Jags have what's quite likely the hardest schedule to end the season (Miami, Indianapolis, New England... and Cleveland).

If Mia wins out you can ignore the Jets, Steelers and Jags.

MIA has tie breaker over Jets.

In order for MIA to win out, Steelers must lose final game.

If MIA and Jax are tied at 10-6, MIA wins the tie breaker.  Only way both can be 10-6 is if MIA beats Jax getting that tie breaker.   

[fyo]

Yup.  I agree so far, then your analysis goes weird.

If Mia wins out you can ignore the Jets, Steelers and Jags.

MIA has tie breaker over Jets.

If MIA and Jax are tied at 10-6, MIA wins the tie breaker.  Only way both can be 10-6 is if MIA beats Jax getting that tie breaker.

I stand by my weirdness

You are trying to apply a 2-way tiebreaker (head-to-head) to a 3-way (or more) situation. If the Jags and Phins are the only two teams at 10-6, then you are correct. However, if Baltimore joins them:

Ravens 10-6
Dolphins 10-6
Jaguars 10-6

First tiebreaker: Head-to-head sweep. Not applicable.
Second tiebreaker: Conference record. Tie with everyone at 8-4 (conference).
Third tiebreaker: Common games (4+). Not applicable.
Fourth tiebreaker: Strength of Victory. Who the hell knows.

They've tweaked the tiebreaker system recently to make it a bit more difficult to get two teams from the same division into the playoffs as Wild Cards. The division tiebreaker is now applied first, before those listed above. It doesn't change anything in the example above, but it does mean that our sweep of the Jets means that if they ALSO finished 10-6, they'd be eliminated first.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I stand by my weirdness

You are trying to apply a 2-way tiebreaker (head-to-head) to a 3-way (or more) situation. If the Jags and Phins are the only two teams at 10-6, then you are correct. However, if Baltimore joins them:

Ravens 10-6
Dolphins 10-6
Jaguars 10-6

First tiebreaker: Head-to-head sweep. Not applicable.
Second tiebreaker: Conference record. Tie with everyone at 8-4 (conference).
Third tiebreaker: Common games (4+). Not applicable.
Fourth tiebreaker: Strength of Victory. Who the hell knows.

They've tweaked the tiebreaker system recently to make it a bit more difficult to get two teams from the same division into the playoffs as Wild Cards. The division tiebreaker is now applied first, before those listed above. It doesn't change anything in the example above, but it does mean that our sweep of the Jets means that if they ALSO finished 10-6, they'd be eliminated first.

If MIA wins out and Jax is 10-6, MIA make the playoffs.  But not as a wildcard team. 

[fyo]

If MIA wins out and Jax is 10-6, MIA make the playoffs.  But not as a wildcard team. 

Fair enough

[masterfins]

If both teams win out and it is a tie, then Ditka would choose the winner, and since Ditka likes Ricky he would choose the Fins, then the Fins would win the Superbowl because they have Ditka on their side.

[BigDaddyFin]

Win out and pray.  I don't know that New England will lose to Buffalo or lose two other games down the stretch.  I just don't see those things happening because they're so well coached.

Beating Jax goes a long way to securing our playoff spot, I'm sure the entire team is wishing they had a game or two back right now because any one of those games would have fundamentally changed the landscape in terms of their playoff chances.

[dolphins4life]

Well, with this victory, the Dolphins obtained an important tiebreaker against the Jaguars.

Should come right down to the wire

[YoFuggedaboutit]

Well, with this victory, the Dolphins obtained an important tiebreaker against the Jaguars.

Should come right down to the wire

We run the table and we're in, I believe.