Miami still needs help.
They can get in by winning out
+ one of the following:
any loss by the Ravens,
any loss by the Pats
2 losses by the Broncos
3 losses by Cincinnati
1 loss by the Broncos would do it, providing that loss came against the Chiefs or Raiders. In that case, Miami would pass Denver on conference record.
If we wind up 10-6 with Baltimore and Denver, we'll be in common games territory:
DENVER: IND(L), NE (W), SDx2 (WL), PIT(L)
MIAMI: IND(L), SD(L), NEx2(WL), PIT(W)
BALTIMORE: IND(L), SD(W), NE(L), PITx2(WW)
Baltimore wins that one and gets the first wild card.
Denver and Miami start out from the top of the tiebreakers table, but without a head-to-head, it falls to Strength of Victory.
Right now, the teams Denver has won against (+KC and OAK) have won 58 games. Right now, the teams Miami has won against (+TEN, HOU, and PIT) have won 58 games. In other words, it's going to come right down to the wire.
Like I've said from the get-go, SOV (and SOS) is a MESS!Both teams have 1 win against the Patriots, so they can be excluded from further considerations. That still leaves quite a few teams, though.
DENVER: Bengals, Browns, Chargers, Raiders*2, Chiefs*2, Cowboys, Giants.
MIAMI: Jets*2, Bills, Steelers, Jaguars, Titans, Texans, Panthers, Bucs.
There are 15 teams, each with 3 games left and although some play against each other, we're still talking about 40 games. Key matchups are those where one of "our" teams play one of "their" teams. Cincinnati @ New York Jets in week 17, for example.
The Bengals have the Chargers (away), Chiefs and Jets (away) remaining on their schedule. I doubt they'll win against the Chargers, but hopefully they'll be locked in by week 17 and rest their starters against the Jets. Either way, a win by the Jets would be a HUGE boon for the Dolphins (we have 2 wins against them, so it would effectively by a 3-point swing).
Oakland and KC suck and have tough remaining schedules. I doubt that get more than 2 wins combined. (And if they do, it'll be by beating Denver or Baltimore... which would get us a Wild Card anyway -- or the Bengals, who also figure on Denver's list, making that result less important -- only less since the Broncos have a sweep, so a Bengals win would be preferable).
The Browns play away at KC, home against Oakland and the Jags. The best result would be wins by the Browns in the first two games -- again due to Denver's sweep of KC and OAK. They could easily lose both, though.
The Giants have @WAS, CAR, and @MIN. Unfortunately, Minnesota will probably be resting their starters, so that's looking like 3 wins.
Dallas play @NO, @WAS, and PHI. Interesting schedule, to say the least. Undefeated Saints, huge rivals and possible division title game. Anywhere from 0 to 3 wins
The Chargers have the Bengals (irrelevant), @TEN and WAS. Since this whole exercise rests on Miami winning against the Titans, that's a huge game. If the Chargers beat Cincy next week, they'll be pretty well locked in, so the Titans should be able to put up a good fight. 1 or 2 wins looks the most likely.
In total, that puts the Broncos at somewhere between +9 and +13, providing the Jets win against Cincy in week 17.
Looking at Miami's list...
The Jets have Atlanta at home, @Indianapolis, and Cincy at home. Atlanta are really struggling right now, so they should be able to get that one. If the Colts lose to Jacksonville this weekend, maybe they'll pull their starters. Big maybe. The Bengals game at home is a biggie, as stated above, but I'm a believer!
Buffalo a loss next week to the Patriots after which they visit Atlanta before finishing the season at home against the Colts. Doubtful they get more than 1 win and 0 looks very likely.
Pittsburgh host the Packers and Ravens before losing to the Dolphins in week 17 (that was the premise, after all). Tough group. A win over the Ravens would open a whole different scenario, so that's a loss. The Packers play really well, so I wouldn't count that in the win column either. Zero it is for Pittsburgh then...
Jacksonville have a tough schedule: IND, @NE, CLE. At this point we should be hoping for a Jax win over the Colts, that would open up some possibilities. Otherwise, this looks like 1 win.
The Titans also have a tough schedule: MIA, SD, @SEA. It would be REALLY good for the Dolphins if the Titans could best the Chargers. Big swing game. 1 win otherwise (again, the premise is that the Dolphins win out).
Houston have @STL, @MIA, and NE. With NE resting their starters, that could be 2 wins.
Panthers and Bucs suck. They might get a win or two between them.
That makes for a total of around +8 for the Dolphins SOV.
To beat the Broncos in SOV, we really need the Jets to beat the Bengals and the Titans to upset the Chargers. Probably also another game or so in week 17 surprises.
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