Playoff chances

[Denver_Bronco]

^^^^

How can I set it to find out what Miami needs to get in?  The instructions are vague.

Click on week 17. Then make Miami a winner against Pitt.  Make Baltimore a loser to Oakland and the Jets a loser to Cincy, Houston a loser to NE.

[fyo]

^^^^

How can I set it to find out what Miami needs to get in?  The instructions are vague.

Other than a time machine?

Miami gets in if ALL of the following happen:

Jaguars lose (or tie) to Browns.
Jets lose to Bengals.
Ravens lose to Raiders.
Texans lose to Patriots.

Oddity: The Dolphins can (as far as I can tell) only get in on a sextuple tie at 8-8 (disregarding the Jags tie).

[Denver_Bronco]

heres what foxsports is saying right now. they have the jets and broncos in right now too...

FOR THE FIVE TEAMS TIED AT 8-7:

RAVENS win AFC North tiebreaker over STEELERS (division record).
BRONCOS, JETS and RAVENS win tiebreaker over TEXANS (conference record).
BRONCOS win tiebreaker over JETS and RAVENS (strength of victory). — BRONCOS earn No. 5 spot.
RAVENS win AFC North tiebreaker over STEELERS (division record).
JETS and RAVENS win tiebreaker over TEXANS (conference record).
JETS win tiebreaker over RAVENS (strength of victory). — JETS earn No. 6 spot.
RAVENS win AFC North tiebreaker over STEELERS (division record).
RAVENS win tiebreaker over TEXANS (conference record). — RAVENS earn No. 7 spot.
TEXANS win tiebreaker over STEELERS (record vs. common opponents). — TEXANS earn No. 8 spot.

[Denver_Bronco]

For Denver:

 The only way we win and still miss is:

Balt W
Pitt W
NYJ L
HOU L

Otherwise, we go to Cincy or Foxboro in a couple weeks.

[fyo]

It's annoying, but if the Jets win at home next weekend, they're in.

[fyo]

For Denver:

 The only way we win and still miss is:

Balt W
Pitt W
NYJ L
HOU L

Otherwise, we go to Cincy or Foxboro in a couple weeks.

That's incorrect.

If the Ravens and Jets win, it doesn't matter what the Steelers and Texans do. And you can swap Ravens with Steelers in that one.

I.e. a Jets win combined with EITHER the Ravens or Steelers winning will screw you.

As will the Steelers AND Ravens winning, regardless of other results.

[Denver_Bronco]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8147d1c0&template=no-right-rail-with-comments&confirm=true

[fyo]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8147d1c0&template=no-right-rail-with-comments&confirm=true

Uhmmm... any point to this? Nothing in the link contradicts anything anyone has said -- nor does it support anything (substantial) anyone has said. Might as well link to the standings.

[Denver_Bronco]

Broncos!

Strait off of the show on KOA.

Naturally we need to win... next...

If Houston beats New England OR the Jets beat Cincinnati - WE ARE IN.

If Pitt loses WE ARE IN.

If Balt loses WE ARE IN.

So here it is.

Houston W - we're in

Jets W - we're in

Pitt L - we're in

Balt L - we're in


With a win vs KC... THE ONLY WAY WE MISS THE PLAYOFFS is if all 4 of scenarios listed above go against us.
      

[fyo]

If Houston beats New England OR the Jets beat Cincinnati - WE ARE IN.

No. And I don't care what some half-ass show said.

Houston doesn't matter. They lose every conceivable tiebreaker to the Broncos. They also cannot keep another team in their division from winning a tiebreaker against the Broncos, because the only way they don't finish second in the AFC South is if no team in their division goes 9-7. And, needless to say, that's what's needed if the Broncos win. SO FORGET HOUSTON. (They might matter in an 8-8 free-for-all).

If the Jets win, they control the tiebreaker with Denver.

ALL of the things you said are wrong. Someone isn't doing their tiebreakers properly.

[Denver_Bronco]

No. And I don't care what some half-ass show said.

Houston doesn't matter. They lose every conceivable tiebreaker to the Broncos. They also cannot keep another team in their division from winning a tiebreaker against the Broncos, because the only way they don't finish second in the AFC South is if no team in their division goes 9-7. And, needless to say, that's what's needed if the Broncos win. SO FORGET HOUSTON. (They might matter in an 8-8 free-for-all).

If the Jets win, they control the tiebreaker with Denver.

ALL of the things you said are wrong. Someone isn't doing their tiebreakers properly.

I'm not going to get into this any further in explanation. You can wait until the official word from the NFL and then come back and tell me how right I was.

[Denver_Bronco]

No. And I don't care what some half-ass show said.

Houston doesn't matter. They lose every conceivable tiebreaker to the Broncos. They also cannot keep another team in their division from winning a tiebreaker against the Broncos, because the only way they don't finish second in the AFC South is if no team in their division goes 9-7. And, needless to say, that's what's needed if the Broncos win. SO FORGET HOUSTON. (They might matter in an 8-8 free-for-all).

We need at least one loss from BAL or Jets.

If Hou wins, then we don't care about Pitt's game; otherwise Pitt must lose.

The Hou-NE game looks to be the 2nd most critical for our playoff chances....In addition to Hou serving as a buffer again Pitt for the #6 seed, if NE lose then Cin might be motivated to get the #3 seed by beating the Jets, this is assuming they want the #3 badly enough to risk injuries.

[fyo]

We need at least one loss from BAL or Jets.

That's exactly what I said (well, different words, same effect).

"a Jets win combined with EITHER the Ravens or Steelers winning will screw you"

If Hou wins, then we don't care about Pitt's game; otherwise Pitt must lose.

Wrong.

And it's an easy statement to disprove:

If the Steelers WIN and the Jets and Ravens LOSE, only two teams are 9-7. That would be the Denver Broncos and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Why would you think an 8-8 team goes in ahead of your 9-7 Broncos?

That alone proves that whatever source you are using for this information is full of shit.

It's true that if Houston WINS in the above scenario (where BAL and NYJ lose), they'll edge out the Steelers. Houston loses EVERY POSSIBLE TIEBREAKER to the Broncos, but they would edge the Steelers in common opponents (TEN, CIN, OAK, MIA -- that's what the Steelers get for losing to the Raiders). That would allow the Broncos to get the 5th seed instead of the 6th seed. There's NO WAY Houston can push you out of the playoffs, however. Except possibly by affecting the motivation of Cincy

[dolphins4life]

I still don't see how Miami is not mathematically eliminated

[fyo]

I still don't see how Miami is not mathematically eliminated

Alright... you can see from the standings that, right now, there are no 9-6 teams in the AFC. That's simple. Since none of the 8-win teams play each other, they can ALL lose. If Miami wins, then there's a massive tie at 8-8.

After that it gets a bit messy. We would be 6-6 in conference, as would the Ravens and Broncos. The Steelers and Texans would be 5-7, so they'd be out in the cold along with the 4-8 Titans. The Jaguars, however, would be 7-5 and have an edge. Basically, as it works out, the Jags at 8-8 would knock out the Dolphins. If they Jags lost, there'd still be a massive 8-8 tie (six teams) and the three teams with 6-6 conference records (Miami, Baltimore and Denver) would be fighting for the first spot.

One team is eliminated from the tiebreaker at a time, after which you need to start over in the tiebreakers. With 6-6 conference records, the next tiebreaker is common opponents (SD,NE,PIT,IND). Miami has 1.5 wins (averaging our NE WL record), Baltimore 1.5 wins, and Denver 1.5 wins.

After that we get to Strength of Victory. Baltimore loses out (by a good margin) and is eliminated. That leaves the Dolphins and Broncos to start over with the tiebreakers. With no head-to-head games, the tiebreaker falls to Strength of Victory again and this time the Dolphins lose out (marginally). So the Broncos get 5th seed.

Starting over for the 6th seed, conference records bring us to Miami and Baltimore (again). And without a head-to-head game, the tiebreaker once again falls to Strength of Victory where, once again, Baltimore loses out. So the Dolphins get the 6th seed.

Note that the above is valid even if Denver wins its final game and ends 9-7. They would then get the 5th seed as the only 9-7 team and the Miami-Baltimore tiebreaker would then play out as above for the 6th seed.