Understanding the playoff race with the Ravens.

[Doc-phin]

We are tied with the Ravens via record, but they hold the advantage over us on tie breakers.  My understanding is that the reason for this is that they have a better AFC opponent record with 6 AFC wins.  We have 5 AFC wins.  They have 2 AFC opponents left to play and we have 3. 

What I am trying to figure out is that if we both win out, who wins the tie breakers.  If we both win out we would have an equal win total against AFC opponents.  My understanding is that common opponents would be next.  Common opponents are the Patriots, Colts, Steelers, and Chargers.  They beat the Chargers and if they win out they will have beaten the Steelers twice.  If we win out, we will have beaten the Steelers once and Patriots once. 

Is the second game where they play the Steelers the game that keeps the Ravens in control of their own destiny?

Am I looking at this wrong (bad info or bad rule understanding)?

This is just technical stuff, from what I gather we really have to win out and hope for a Patriot or Raven loss.  Considering their schedules vs our schedule, it doesn't look too promising.

[fyo]

We've had a bazillion tie-breaker threads that have covered this. The latest, bizarrely named "Playoff chances", can be found just a few threads down (at the moment of this writing):

http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=15648.0

Let me quote Spider Dan for the answer to your question:

If BAL and MIA win out (and no other team is at 10-6), BAL wins.

3rd tiebreaker is common games, minimum of four.  In the case of BAL and MIA, common games are NE, PIT, SD, IND.

If MIA wins out, they will be 2-3 (losses to NE, IND, SD)
If BAL wins out, they will be 3-2 (losses to NE, IND)

As the thread also details, it's possible for the Dolphins to get in if the Broncos lose a game. With the Dolphins, Ravens, and Broncos all at 10-6, Baltimore would get the first Wild Card while the second one would come down to Strength of Victory between Miami and Denver -- which is very, very close (exactly even, in fact, although the future schedule favors Denver's strength of schedule score).