dolphins & the super bowl

[dolfan13]

when do people think that the dolphins will be legitimate super bowl contenders? To me it seems like they are so far away, 4 years maybe?

[ethurst22a]

Lets try 4 years from now.

In the early years , the stars aligned for the Dolphins. They were championship contenders in only their 5th year in the league which I think at the time, they were the fastest expansion franchise to go to the playoffs.

Now we're living on the dark side of the moon.

The Jets and the Patriots are in a better position than Miami. Brady is getting old so he will have to be replaced soon. New England might draft a QB and they have some draft picks from the Seymour deal.

All teams seem to go through a desert period. Colts, Saints (their history has been well documented). Miami had their success on the front end so now, they are struggling.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

With the modern rules of FA and draft there isn't a team in the NFL that is more than three years away from being a contender with competentant management and some luck on the injury front. 

Dolphins 2007: 1-15; 2008 11-5
Jets 2007:4-12; 2009 played in AFCCG
Patriots 2000: 5-11; 2001 won the SB
Saints went 8-8 last year, this year they are in SB
Steelers 2003 6-10; 2004 15-1. 

[Sunstroke]

Hoodie is right, though he messed up his Dolphins record in the first example.

Allowing for continued development of some of their younger key players and a fruitful FA signing period and draft class, there is nothing that says Miami can't be contending for a Super Bowl this coming season.

Do I believe they'll make it to the Super Bowl this season? No...but it is on the outskirts of Possibility-town, so it is definitely possible. 2011 is the year I think we see the run for a Super Bowl though. We'll make the playoffs this year, but not make it to the SB.

[dolfan13]

i think being able to make/have a run through the playoffs, and actually legitimately being able to win the super bowl are two different things.

the saints are a pretty good example of this... hasn't it been 4 years into the rebuilding of that team? peyton, drew brees, reggie bush, colston,...? in 2006, they just didn't have a defense and now they have a much better defense together with that potent offense.

heck, indy is probably a good example too... all those years with probably the greatest qb of all time couldn't get them a ring until they built up the defense.

[Phishfan]

i think being able to make/have a run through the playoffs, and actually legitimately being able to win the super bowl are two different things.

I have to disagree. The Jets backed into the playoffs and made the AFC championship game. All you have to do is make it there and then get hot.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

i think being able to make/have a run through the playoffs, and actually legitimately being able to win the super bowl are two different things.

Giants in 2007 were a team that had an outside chance at making run at the playoffs but no actual legimate shot at being able to make it to the superbowl let alone win it.

The ball isn't round so it bounces funny.  And being unlike baseball or basketball were you have a best of 7 series all you need to be is hot on the right day, not the better team.

The 2007 Patriots were the better team
The 2001 Rams were the better team
The 1980 USSR hockey team was the better team
The 1969 Colts were the better team
The 1972 Redskins were the better team

But in one game series the better team doesn't always win.   

[dolfan13]

again, ill say just making the afc championship game and winning the super bowl are 2 entirely different things. the bar that sets the level for the required makeup of the team to accomplish the latter is significantly higher.

[Doc-phin]

I have to disagree. The Jets backed into the playoffs and made the AFC championship game. All you have to do is make it there and then get hot.

I disagree with your disagreeing  .  Although anything is possible, legitimacy is a perception and most of us perceived that the Jets were outperforming their roster.  Nobody really expected them to beat the Chargers or the Colts, they were fortunate to win the Chargers game even though the Chargers were a better top to bottom team.

I had a really good post somewhere that discussed my prediction on when our team should be ready for the big time, but the results of it were that we shouldn't expect anything within 3 years.  The only exception would be if we could steal a non-rookie playmaking receiver within a year.  Our secondary can be expected to improve without roster moves but our OLB and nosetackle situation can only be successful at status quo for one more year (due to age), IMO.  After that, it will take a couple of years to get our defense championship ready.

[dolfan13]

the tournament is not a one game series... in order to make it, advance through it, and win the super bowl requires a great team. luck plays a big role in it as well, but you don't just get "lucky" and win the super bowl.

my point is i think the dolphins are far from having a "great" team. sure they can get "lucky", win a couple of games in the tournament, etc... but a great team and win the super bowl, i just see it as being a long time from now.

[Phishfan]

I disagree with your disagreeing  .  Although anything is possible, legitimacy is a perception and most of us perceived that the Jets were outperforming their roster.  Nobody really expected them to beat the Chargers or the Colts, they were fortunate to win the Chargers game even though the Chargers were a better top to bottom team.

You are proving my point, not yours. You nor I expected them to win, but they did. That is my point entirely. All you have to do is get there and then get hot.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Forget the 2009 Jets as a model.

The 2001 NEP was not nearly as talented as the 2009 Jets.  Nor was the 2007 Giants or 2005 Steelers.  

[Doc-phin]

You are proving my point, not yours. You nor I expected them to win, but they did. That is my point entirely. All you have to do is get there and then get hot.

From this mentality, any team that plays in the NFL should be considered a legitimate Superbowl contender.  I am sure the Lion's expect to win every game even though nobody else does.  If you have an opportunity to play a NFL season, then you have the chance to make the playoffs.  And if you make the playoffs, you have a chance to win the superbowl.  Therefore making any team a legitimate playoff contender.

Come on!  Are you serious?  Use some commons sense on this one.  We are talking about a collective perception of what teams are capable of or likely to do.  All things are taken into account including history, coaching, player personnel, strength of schedule, etc.

The Jets had a rookie coach, rookie QB and no history of recent playoff success.  Why would there be any realistic expectation of a Superbowl?  Short answer...  THERE WASN"T!  And guess what?  It didn't happen!

[Phishfan]

You have really stretched my original point beyond its elasticity and have gone on a complete tangent.

Any team in the playoffs does have capability of making the SB. Any team in the SB has the capability of winning it. If you want to argue anything else fine, but I stand by that stance because it is realism. This year is a fluke as far as the two best teams being in the SB. It rarely ever happens that way.

[Doc-phin]

You have really stretched my original point beyond its elasticity and have gone on a complete tangent.

Any team in the playoffs does have capability of making the SB. Any team in the SB has the capability of winning it. If you want to argue anything else fine, but I stand by that stance because it is realism. This year is a fluke as far as the two best teams being in the SB. It rarely ever happens that way.

I am not out to attack your point, really!  But here is the thing, yes the last few years have brought more success from wildcard teams in terms of getting to and performing well in the Superbowl.  I, like many, love these underdog success stories.  However, overall it is much more typical for there to be 3-4 favorites from each conference and for one of those favorites to make it to the Superbowl.

Dynasties still exist, even in the age of free agency.  There is a reason for this and it isn't that anyone who makes the playoffs has an equal chance at making the Superbowl.  If you want to be a legit contender for the Superbowl, you have to be viewed as a team that can beat the best when the stakes are win or go home.